行业点评 科技行业 -工业富联2024业绩解读：2025年AI服务器需求依旧强劲 工业富联（601138 CH，未评级）2024年业绩快报显示，收入/净利润同比增长28/10%，受益于云计算和品 牌客户对AI服务器需求驱动云计算业务强劲增长，以及通用服务器市场复苏。展望2025年上半年，尽管市场担 心DeepSeek的影响会导致计算需求放缓，但我们仍然对全球人工智能基础设施投资加速以及GB200/GB300 AI服务器机架增长持正面看法，全球主要CSP 用于2025年算力投入和大模型升级的资本支出指引可作为明 证。我们相信AI服务器供应链将继续受益，包括比亚迪电子、鸿腾精密和立讯精密。 中国保险行业 - 4Q24保险资金年化财务投资收益率连续第五个季度回升 保险资金规模：2024年全行业保险资金运用余额33.26万亿元，同比+15.1%，高于行业保费收入增速 11.2%；其中，人身险公司保险资金运用余额29.95万亿元，同比+15.8% （人身险保费收入增速13.3%）， 占比90.1%；财产险公司保险资金运用余额2.2万亿元，同比+9.7%（财产险保费收入增速5.3%），占比 6.7%。 投资收益率：4Q2 ...

Market Trends - Chinese stock market experienced a pullback on February 24, with technology, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors leading the decline in Hong Kong stocks[1] - U.S. investment policies are increasing risk aversion, benefiting defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities[1] - U.S. restrictions on investments in sensitive industries may prompt China to boost domestic demand, leading to a significant rise in the real estate sector[1] Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, while Treasury futures prices fell, indicating a potential tightening of monetary policy despite a fragile economic recovery[1] - The Chinese yuan remained stable, with the central bank showing intentions to stabilize the currency amid rising interest rates in the money market[1] Corporate Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized support for leading technology firms and strategic enterprises, indicating a continued focus on financing for tech companies[1] - The return of large Chinese companies to Hong Kong is ongoing, but smaller firms face challenges due to strategic, compliance, and regulatory issues[1] European Market Insights - European stocks saw a slight decline, with the German election results providing some clarity, while French stocks dragged down the overall market[2] - Germany's proposed €200 billion defense spending plan is expected to boost defense sector stocks, despite concerns over strict fiscal rules limiting structural deficits[2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets faced consecutive declines, particularly in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, while healthcare and financial sectors showed some resilience[3] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index fell into contraction territory, adding to signs of economic weakness in the U.S.[3] Commodity Movements - Oil prices saw a slight increase, supported by Iraq's compensation commitments, while gold prices reached new highs due to rising risk aversion and a weaker dollar[4] - Gold prices have increased by 12% year-to-date, with significant inflows into gold ETFs marking the largest since 2022[4]

Macro Economic Overview - The report forecasts the USD/CNY exchange rate to reach 7.48, 7.33, and 7.55 by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with Bloomberg's median market predictions being 7.45 and 7.35 for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery in 2025, but may slow down again in 2026, with no intention from policymakers to seek a significant depreciation of the RMB to boost exports [5] Company Analysis Bilibili (BILI US) - Bilibili reported Q4 2024 revenue of 7.73 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year increase, and an adjusted net profit of 453 million RMB, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] - The company anticipates continued robust revenue growth in its advertising and mobile gaming segments, leading to an upward revision of FY25-FY26 earnings forecasts by 7-13% [6] NetEase (NTES US) - NetEase's Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 1.4% to 26.7 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations, while operating profit increased by 13.9% to 7.8 billion RMB [6] - The company expects new game launches to drive revenue growth in FY25, with a slight downward adjustment of total revenue forecasts by 2-3% [6] Alibaba (BABA US) - Alibaba's Q3 FY25 revenue reached 280.2 billion RMB, a 7.6% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations [7] - The company is optimistic about EBITA growth prospects for FY26, driven by increased adoption of its "full-site push" strategy and narrowing losses in its AIDC segment [8] Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - Yancoal reported a net profit of 1.2 billion AUD for 2024, a 33% decline but 8% above expectations, and announced a final dividend of 0.52 AUD per share [8] - The company maintains production and cost guidance for 2025 similar to 2024, with increased capital expenditure anticipated [8] Weir Semiconductor (603501 CH) - Weir Semiconductor is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications in edge devices and the penetration of smart driving systems in vehicles [8] - The company expects revenue to grow by 27% in 2025, reaching 33 billion RMB, driven by sales growth in mobile and automotive CIS [8]

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Investment Policy - Trump's "America First" investment policy emphasizes national security, increasing restrictions on cross-border investments in sensitive industries, which may weaken international investor confidence[1] - The policy is expected to reduce U.S. cross-border investment activities with non-allied countries, slightly lowering U.S. GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026[3] - The restrictions may lead to a decrease in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI), which have historically accounted for 1%-1.5% of GDP over the past decade[1] Group 2: Effects on China - The policy will negatively impact China’s cross-border investment activities, potentially reducing China's GDP growth, particularly in the outward-oriented sectors, with FDI and securities investment flows between China and the U.S. averaging 0.5%-1% of GDP from 2014 to 2023[3] - China is likely to increase domestic demand support and accelerate technological self-reliance, while enhancing trade and investment ties with non-U.S. regions[1] - Despite short-term negative impacts on market confidence, China's GDP growth is projected to remain around 5% for the year, with Q4 2024 expected to rise to 5.4%[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, with a target price raised to HK$202.5 from the previous HK$115.0, indicating an upside potential of 18.6% from the current price of HK$170.70 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music reported a total revenue of RMB7.95 billion for FY24, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, which aligns with consensus estimates. Adjusted net profit surged by 108% year-over-year to RMB1.70 billion, exceeding consensus by 20%, primarily due to enhanced profitability in the online music segment and effective operational expense control [1][2]. - The company plans to focus on improving user experience to unlock long-term growth opportunities in FY25E, with expectations of a 15% year-over-year growth in online music services revenue driven by subscriber growth [1][5]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved significantly, rising by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year to 32.4% in the second half of FY24, with forecasts indicating further GPM expansion to 35.4% in FY25 [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: FY24 revenue was RMB7.95 billion, with projections of RMB8.08 billion for FY25E and RMB8.77 billion for FY26E, indicating a gradual recovery and growth trajectory [2][11]. - **Profitability Metrics**: Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from RMB1.70 billion in FY24 to RMB1.88 billion in FY25E, with adjusted net margins improving from 21.1% in 2H24 to 23.3% in FY25E [2][6][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report values NetEase Cloud Music at a P/E of 21x for FY25E, which is at a discount compared to global peers, reflecting the competitive landscape in China's online content sector [8][9]. User Engagement and Market Strategy - The company has seen steady growth in monthly active users (MAUs) and user engagement, attributed to a distinctive content ecosystem and improved personalized recommendations [5]. - Key initiatives for FY25E include enriching the content library, fostering community development, enhancing user experience to drive payment willingness, and improving operational efficiency [5][6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - NetEase Cloud Music's online music services revenue increased by 20% year-over-year in the second half of FY24, with membership subscriptions growing by 19% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company has adopted a more prudent operational approach, particularly in social entertainment, leading to a 33% year-over-year decline in related revenue as it focuses on its core music business [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price of HK$94.0, implying a potential upside of 62.1% from the current price of HK$58.0 [1][7]. Core Insights - AIA's share price fell 17.3% in FY24, underperforming key benchmarks despite resilient Value of New Business (VNB) growth and a solid financial position [1]. - The report anticipates a 20% increase in full-year VNB on a Constant Exchange Rate (CER) basis, with Group Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) expected to grow 7% YoY in FY24 [1][7]. - Total shareholder return is projected to rise to approximately 8% in FY24, driven by a 3% dividend yield and around 5% return from buybacks [1][7]. Financial Performance - AIA's VNB is expected to reach US$4.77 billion in FY24, reflecting a 20% increase on a CER basis, with a slowdown in growth anticipated in the second half of the year [7]. - Group OPAT is projected to increase to US$6.639 billion in FY24, with a corresponding Operating EPS of US$0.59 [8]. - The report highlights a significant buyback program completion of US$12 billion, with expectations for a new buyback announcement in mid-March 2025 [1][7]. Market Position - AIA's share price performance has lagged behind major indices, with the stock trading at 1.0x FY25E Price to Embedded Value (P/EV), near historical lows [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustained long-term value growth to enhance investor confidence and facilitate further buybacks [7]. Shareholder Returns - The report indicates that AIA's management remains focused on shareholder returns, with an estimated US$3.5 billion allocated for buybacks in FY24 [7]. - The underlying free surplus generation is projected to be US$6.7 billion, up 11% YoY, which could strengthen the Group's capital position for additional shareholder paybacks [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, with a target price set at HKD 202.5, based on a 21x P/E ratio for FY2025 [1][10]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music reported a total revenue of RMB 7.95 billion for FY2024, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth, in line with expectations. Adjusted net profit surged by 108% to RMB 1.7 billion, exceeding expectations by 20%, primarily due to improved profitability in the online music segment and effective cost control [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance user experience to unlock long-term growth opportunities, focusing on content library expansion, community development, user payment willingness, and operational efficiency [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the overall gross margin increased by 3.6 percentage points to 32.4%, driven by improved revenue monetization and prudent cost management. The gross margin is projected to further increase to 35.4% in FY2025 [3][4]. - The online music service revenue for the second half of FY2024 grew by 20% year-over-year, reaching RMB 2.8 billion, with subscription revenue increasing by 19% to RMB 2.3 billion [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit margin for FY2024 was 21.1%, up by 8.8 percentage points year-over-year [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 8.08 billion in FY2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 1.6%, and projected to grow to RMB 9.28 billion by FY2027 [4][14]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 1.88 billion in FY2025, reflecting a 10.7% year-over-year growth [4][14]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The target price of HKD 202.5 is based on a lower P/E ratio compared to global peers, reflecting the competitive landscape in China's online content sector [10][11]. - The report highlights that the stock has shown significant price performance, with a 51.5% increase over the past month and an 82.5% increase over the past six months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of $26.40 per ADS, up from the previous target of $22.00 [1][5][27]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 77.3 billion for Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 4.53 billion, surpassing expectations by 15% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by strong performance in mobile gaming and advertising sectors, with mobile game revenue increasing by 79% year-on-year [2][3]. - The management has reiterated its long-term operating profit margin target of 15-20%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, total revenue is projected to grow by 19% to RMB 268 billion, with an adjusted net loss reduced by 99% to RMB 2.21 billion [1][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 total revenue to increase by 22% year-on-year, with mobile gaming, advertising, and value-added services (VAS) revenues expected to grow by 73%, 19%, and 10% respectively [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - VAS revenue grew by 8% to RMB 30.8 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue in Q4 2024, driven by increased premium membership and fan payment revenues [2]. - Advertising revenue increased by 24% to RMB 23.9 billion, representing 31% of total revenue, attributed to strong growth in performance advertising [2]. - Mobile gaming revenue surged by 79% to RMB 18 billion, making up 23% of total revenue, mainly due to new contributions [2]. Profitability Metrics - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 10 percentage points to 36.1% in Q4 2024, while adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) rose by 17 percentage points to 6.0% [3]. - For Q1 2025, adjusted OPM is expected to grow by 12 percentage points to 3.3% despite content investments for the Spring Festival Gala [3]. Valuation and Estimates - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the advertising business at $1.05 billion, VAS at $800 million, and mobile gaming at $800 million, with a total valuation of approximately $8.06 billion [16][17]. - The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB 30.42 billion, with a gross profit margin of 37.3% and an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.75 billion [12][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $125.50, reflecting an expected return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [2][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable performance in Q4 2024, with total revenue decreasing by 1.4% year-on-year to RMB 26.7 billion, aligning with market expectations. Operating profit increased by 13.9% year-on-year to RMB 7.8 billion, surpassing market expectations by 8% due to cautious control of sales and marketing expenses, which decreased by 33% year-on-year [1][2][3]. - For FY25, the company anticipates the launch of several new game titles to drive revenue growth, although total revenue forecasts for FY25-26 have been adjusted downwards by 2-3%. However, due to prudent operational expense control, the non-GAAP net income forecast for FY25-26 has been revised upwards by 2-3% [1][2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 105.3 billion in FY24 to RMB 110.7 billion in FY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 33.5 billion in FY24 to RMB 36.0 billion in FY25, reflecting a growth rate of 7.5% [4][21]. - The operating profit margin is expected to improve, with a forecast of 30.4% for FY25, up from 29.1% in FY24, driven by effective control of sales and marketing expenses [3][11]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the online gaming business at $11.05 billion, accounting for 88% of the total valuation. Other segments include Youdao at $1 million, Cloud Music at $380 million, and innovation and other businesses at $1.8 million, with net cash valued at $8.5 million [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (YAL) with a target price adjusted to HK$36 from HK$38 [1][32]. Core Insights - YAL's net profit for 2024 reached A$1.2 billion, a 33% decline year-on-year, but exceeded expectations by 8% due to unexpected foreign exchange gains of A$149 million [1][2]. - The company announced a final dividend of A$0.52 per share, aligning with its dividend policy and expected to boost investor confidence [1]. - YAL's production guidance for 2025 remains similar to 2024, with an increase in capital expenditure anticipated [1][2]. - The average selling price of coal has decreased, impacting revenue forecasts, leading to a downward revision of earnings estimates for 2025E and 2026E by 13% and 12% respectively [1][32]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 decreased by 12% to A$6.86 billion, despite a 14% increase in coal sales volume to 37.7 million tons, offset by a 24% drop in average selling price to A$176 per ton [2][4]. - The company reported a stable unit cash cost of A$86 per ton in the second half of 2024, with a significant cash balance of A$2.35 billion, representing 30% of its current market capitalization [2][4]. - The earnings forecast for 2025E is A$1.016 billion, reflecting a 16.4% decline from 2024, with a projected revenue of A$6.55 billion [4][35]. Operational Guidance - YAL's 2025 production guidance is set between 35 million to 39 million tons, with operating cash costs expected to range from A$89 to A$97 per ton [2][35]. - Capital expenditure is projected to be between A$750 million to A$900 million, indicating a year-on-year increase of 6% to 28% [2][35]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that YAL's valuation is not overly inflated, with a projected P/E ratio of less than 8 times for 2025E and a yield exceeding 6% [1][32]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately HK$37.9 billion, with a current share price of HK$28.70 [5].