31 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yuexiu Transport (1052 HK) 1H24E preview: Expect net profit to -14% YoY due to traffic diversion Yuexiu Transport will report its 1H24 results next Tue (6 Aug). Given the decline in both traffic volume and revenue as a result of traffic diversion in 5M24, we forecast its net profit in 1H24E to drop 14% YoY to RMB366mn. We revise down our 2024E-26E earnings forecast by 17-19%, as we expect traffic diversion on some key expressway ...

每日投资策略 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------|----------------| | | | | | | | | | 公司点评 | 招银国际研究部 邮件： | research@cmbi.com.hk | | | | | 派拓网络（ PANW US ，首次覆盖 - 买入，目标价： 391.7 美元） - 网络安全巨 | | | | | | | 头迎接新一轮增长机会 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | 升跌（ | % ） | | | 派拓网络（ PANW US ）是一家全球领先的网络安全提供商，帮 ...

Investment Rating - Initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of US$391.7 per share, representing a 19.9% upside from the current price of US$326.81 [3][2]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for cybersecurity solutions, with a projected revenue CAGR of 16% from FY23 to FY26 and a non-GAAP net profit CAGR of 23% during the same period [2][10]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for PANW's key sectors—network security, cloud security, and Security Operation Center (SOC)—has grown from US$38 billion in 2018 to US$104 billion in 2023, with expectations to reach US$210 billion by 2028, driven by the adoption of Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) and cloud security [2][10][27]. - PANW's strong financial profile adheres to the "Rule of 50," indicating a balanced growth in revenue and profitability, which supports its valuation [2][14]. Cybersecurity Market Overview - The cybersecurity market is experiencing significant growth, with the TAM for PANW's sectors expected to expand at a CAGR of 15% from 2023 to 2028 [2][10]. - The demand for cybersecurity solutions is driven by an increasingly complex threat landscape, with cybercrimes costing the global economy US$8 trillion annually [28][27]. Company Positioning - PANW has been recognized as a leader in 23 product categories across network security, cloud security, and SOC, which enhances its competitive edge and market share [11][2]. - As of 2QFY24, 79% of Global 2000 customers have engaged with PANW on at least two platforms, indicating strong customer loyalty and product integration [11][2]. Platformization Strategy - The acceleration of PANW's Platformization strategy is expected to enhance market share gains, despite potential short-term impacts on billings and revenue growth [12][2]. - The strategy aims to improve customer total cost of ownership (TCO) and return on investment (ROI) by consolidating multiple cybersecurity solutions into a unified platform [27][12]. Growth Opportunities - PANW is poised to capitalize on the growing opportunities related to Generative AI, which could increase demand for its products and services while also allowing for potential price increases due to improved user experience and operational efficiency [13][2]. - The company is also focusing on international expansion and the adoption of next-generation security products to drive future revenue growth [12][2]. Financial Performance - PANW's revenue is projected to grow from US$6.9 billion in FY23 to US$10.8 billion by FY26, with a consistent year-over-year growth rate [7][2]. - The company has a strong financial profile, with a non-GAAP adjusted net profit expected to increase from US$1.4 billion in FY23 to US$2.7 billion by FY26 [7][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price (TP) of HKD 14.54, which corresponds to a 20x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on FY25E estimates, aligning with the long-term average of comparable peers [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a 20% year-on-year decline in retail sales value (RSV) for Q1 FY25, with declines of 18% in mainland China and 28.8% in Hong Kong and Macau. Same-store sales growth (SSSG) decreased by 26.4% and 30.8% in these regions, respectively. The weak performance is attributed to sluggish consumer spending and increased gold price volatility, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment [1]. - The contribution of fixed-price products has significantly increased from 5.7% in Q1 FY24 to 15.8% in Q1 FY25, exceeding expectations. This improvement is driven by ongoing product portfolio enhancements and strong terminal feedback, particularly for the new "Roge" series. The report anticipates that the contribution from fixed-price products will remain high due to upcoming product launches [1]. - The company has optimized its channel strategy, closing 95 stores in Q1 FY25 (opening 89 and closing 194) to replace underperforming stores with more efficient ones, thereby enhancing profitability. Online sales contribution rose to 13.8% in Q1 FY25 from 10% in Q1 FY24, indicating a positive trend in online presence amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to generate revenue of HKD 106,501 million, reflecting a 2% decline year-on-year. Net profit is expected to reach HKD 7,260 million, with a growth forecast of 12% for FY25E, followed by 9% and 8% in FY26E and FY27E, respectively [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 21.6% for FY25E, with a gradual increase to 22.4% by FY27E. The report also highlights a projected return on equity (ROE) of 8.4% for FY25E, improving to 9.9% by FY27E [2][11]. - The company's financial position shows a net cash status in FY23A, with a projected net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2x in FY25E, indicating a strong balance sheet [2][11].

29 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) Sales under ST pressure, fixed-price products to contribute more Chow Tai Fook (CTF) reported 1QFY25 (calendar year 2Q24) operational data with a 20% YoY decline in total retail sales value (RSV). RSV in Mainland China/ HK & Macau fell 18/28.8% YoY, with same-store sales growth (SSSG) down 26.4/30.8% YoY. The sluggish results were due to weak consumer spending and gold price volatility that intensified co ...

29 Jul 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update iQIYI (IQ US) Weather short-term headwinds in 2Q24; eyes on 2H24E recovery iQiyi will report 2Q24 results on 22 August. We forecast 2Q24 total revenue to decline by 5% YoY to RMB7.4bn, due to underperformance of certain drama series and a YoY decline in the number of variety shows. We expect non-GAAP operating profit to drop by 36% YoY to RMB503mn on operating deleverage, despite largely flattish content costs a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BYDE with a target price of HK$45.28, implying a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price of HK$30.75 [2][3][11] Core Insights - BYDE is expected to report solid growth in 1H24, with estimated revenue and net profit growth of 32% and 26% respectively, driven by iPad share gains, Android recovery, and stable NEV components sales [2][11] - The company has revised its FY24-26 EPS estimates down by 6% primarily due to a weaker gross profit margin (GPM) [2][11] - The stock is currently trading at attractive multiples of 12.7x and 9.3x FY24 and FY25 estimated P/E ratios [2][11] Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Revenue from smartphone OEM/component business is projected to increase by 39% in 1H24 and 36% in 2H24, driven by iPad share gains and the iPhone cycle [2] - iPad revenue is expected to grow by 53% in 1H24 and 28% in 2H24, with market share projected to reach 50% in FY24 [2][6] - GPM for assembly is expected to improve slightly to 2.5% in 1H24 and 2.6% in 2H24, while component GPM is projected at 14.3% and 14.7% for the same periods [2] Automotive - Automotive revenue is expected to grow by 38% YoY in FY24, driven by strong Parentco shipments and new high-end product ramp-up [2][6] - The ASP for automotive products is anticipated to grow by 20% YoY, contributing to overall revenue growth [2] New Intelligent Products - AI server business is expected to generate RMB1 billion in revenue in FY24, offsetting weaknesses in the household energy storage segment [2] - The report expresses optimism about the AI server business delivering rapid growth in FY25-26 due to next-gen products in development with Nvidia [2] Earnings Summary - For FY24, revenue is estimated at RMB171.96 billion, with a YoY growth of 32.3% [3][6] - Net profit for FY24 is projected at RMB5.06 billion, reflecting a 25.3% YoY growth [3][6] - EPS for FY24 is estimated at RMB2.25, which is 1-9% above consensus estimates [2][6] Valuation - The new target price of HK$45.28 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting BYDE's diversified business model [11] - The report assigns a target P/E of 15x for assembly and component businesses, and 20x for new intelligent and NEV segments, indicating their growth potential [11]

2024 年 7 月 29 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 比亚迪 （ 285 香港 ）1H24E 预览版 ： 预计 iPad / iPhone 周期 ， Android 恢复和 NEV 订单 (上一个 TP HK $45.28 HK $45.15) 47.3% 比亚迪将在 8 月公布 1H24 业绩我们估计 1H24 收入 / NP 增长 32% / 26% 受 iPad 份额增长、 Android 复苏、 Jabil 业务整合、 稳定的新能源汽车零部件销售和新型智能产品业务。为 2H24E / 2025E ， 我们对 iPad / iPhone 升级周期持积极态度 ， Android 高端 订单、汽车订单和人工智能服务器推动收入增长。我们削减了 FY24 - 26E 每股收益下降 6% ， 主要是由于 GPM 走弱。我们的 FY24 - 26E 每股收益估计为 1 - 9% 以上的共识。该股现在的市盈率为 12.7 倍 / 9.3 倍 FY24 / 25E 市盈率 ， 即 我们认为有吸引力。我们新的基于 SOTP 的 TP 为 45.28 港元 ， 意味着 FY24E 的 18.3 ...

2024 年 7 月 29 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 爱奇艺 (IQ US) 24 年第二季度的天气短期逆风 ； 关注 2H24E 复苏 爱奇艺将于 8 月 22 日公布第二季度业绩。我们预测 2Q24 总收入将同比下降 5%，至 74 亿 元人民币，这是由于某些剧集的表现不佳以及综艺节目的数量同比下降。我们预计非 GAAP 营业利润将同比下降 36%，至 5.03 亿元人民币，尽管内容成本和营业支出同比基本持平。尽 管如此，我们预计在优质内容管道的推动下，总收入和利润将在下半年逐步恢复。鉴于竞争激 烈且某些内容的表现低于预期，我们将 FY24 - 26E 非 GAAP 净收入预测下调至 2.8 / 3.3 / 40 亿元人民币 （ 前值 ： 3.7 / 4.2 / 45 亿元人民币 ） 。我们的目标价格为 6.40 美元，基于 FY24E 的 16 倍 PE （ 先前 ： 8.6 美元，基于 FY24E 的 16 倍 PE ） 。我们以买入评级转移 超额。 会员业务在第二季度面临压力。我们预计 2Q24E 的会员收入将同比下降 8%，至 45 亿元人 民币，主要原因是某些剧集的表 ...

2024 年 7 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 装备制造 3,000 亿元资金支持设备更新和消费品以旧换新 国家发改委、财政部昨天（7 月 25 日）发布关于加大对设备更新和消费品以旧 换新支持措施的通知（《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若 干措施》）。《通知》提出统筹约 3,000 亿元人民币超长期特别国债资金以支 持设备更新和以旧换新。设备更新范围包括工业、环境基础设施、交通设备、 物流、教育、文旅和医疗，并延伸至能源、电力和老旧电梯。其中特别提及增 加对国三货车和农业机械的补贴。到 2024 年底没用完的已下达资金将收回中 央，因此我们认为替换周期会在今年下半年加快。在我们的覆盖个股当中，潍 柴动力（2338 HK，买入，目标价：22 港元 / 000338 CH，买入，目标价：人 民币 20.4 元）、中国重汽（3808 HK，买入，目标价：22.5 港元）和中联重科 （1157 HK，买入，目标价：7.50 港元 / 000157 CH，买入，目标价：人民币 11.6 元）将是主要受益者。 老旧船舶报废更新：《通知》鼓励加快高排放船舶更新换代，推动新能源 ...