2 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Hutchmed (13 HK) Fruquintinib's overseas sales beat HCM's oncology/immunology product revenue reached US$128mn in 1H24 (+59.6% YoY), including US$43mn revenue recognised from fruquintinib's sales outside China. The consolidated revenue from oncology/immunology including R&D services and Takeda collaboration revenue, reached US$169mn in 1H24, representing 48% of the midpoint of the FY24 guidance range of US$300-400mn. In 2Q24, fru ...

2024 年 8 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 临近降息 美联储决议声明确认去通胀取得更大进展，删除对通胀风险"高度关注"措 辞，关注就业不断降温趋势，为未来可能降息扫清障碍。鲍威尔在记者会上表 示正在接近可以降息的时机，最快可能 9 月降息，美股、美债、原油、黄金和 日元应声走高。我们维持美联储今年 9 月开始降息、12 月再次降息和明年 4 次 降息的预测，预计明年末联邦基金利率将降至 3.8%左右（目标区间 3.75%- 4%）。我们认为下半年美国经济和通胀将延续降温，薪资增速放缓带动核心服 务通胀回落和 CPI 房租通胀补跌将是下半年通胀下行的主要驱动因素。在通胀 降至 2.5%以下之后，进一步迈向 2%目标则需要经济总需求进一步冷却。伴随 美元降息周期，美国长期国债收益率可能温和降至今年末的 4%和明年末的 3.9%，美元指数可能小幅降至今年末的 104 和明年末的 101，美股或先抑后 扬，新兴市场汇率和股票均将受益于美元降息和美元指数回落。 美联储会议声明重点：保持政策利率目标在 5.25%-5.5%不变，继续减少持 有的国债、机构债和 MBS；除非对通胀朝 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a **Buy** rating with a revised target price of **$95.0** (previously $102.5) [2][3] Core Views - New Oriental's core education business continues to show strong momentum, with FY24 revenue growing 44% YoY to $4.314 billion and non-GAAP net income up 47% YoY to $381.1 million [2] - The company's overseas test preparation and study consulting revenues grew 17.7% and 17.3% YoY, respectively, contributing approximately 11% and 15% of total revenue in 4QFY24 [2] - Domestic test preparation revenue increased 16.4% YoY, accounting for about 4% of total revenue in 4QFY24 [2] - New education initiatives grew 50.3% YoY, contributing approximately 20% of total revenue in 4QFY24 [2] - East Buy's revenue is expected to decline 20% YoY in FY25E to $741 million due to business adjustments [2] Business Performance and Outlook - For 1QFY25E, management guides total revenue growth of 31-34% YoY, reaching $1.255-1.284 billion, with OPM improving by 200 bps YoY [2] - The company expects overseas test preparation, overseas consulting, new education, and high school tutoring revenues to grow 25%, 15%, 50%, and 30% YoY, respectively, in FY25E [2] - Non-GAAP operating margin declined 5.9 percentage points YoY to 3.2% in 4QFY24, primarily due to capacity expansion and increased investments in live-streaming e-commerce [2] - The total number of schools and learning centers increased 37% YoY to 1,025 by the end of 4QFY24 [2] - Management expects capacity to grow 20-25% YoY in FY25E, with most new openings in cities with better unit economics [2] Financial Projections - FY25E revenue is projected at $5.267 billion, with non-GAAP net income of $571.7 million [3] - FY26E revenue is expected to reach $6.258 billion, with non-GAAP net income of $791.4 million [3] - Non-GAAP EPS for FY25E and FY26E is forecasted at $3.45 and $4.78, respectively [3] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 53.6% in FY25E and 54.8% in FY26E [6] - Operating margin is projected to increase to 11.1% in FY25E and 13.3% in FY26E [6] Valuation - The SOTP valuation method is used, with a 10% holdco discount, resulting in a target price of $95.0 per ADS [7] - Education and consulting business is valued at $89.9 (95% of total valuation), based on 30x FY25E PE [7] - East Buy is valued at $1.7 (2% of total valuation), based on 7x FY25E PE [7] - Travel and other businesses are valued at $3.3 (4% of total valuation), based on 15x FY25E PE [7] Industry Comparison - New Oriental's FY25E PE of 24.6x is higher than the education industry average of 22.4x, reflecting its strong leadership in China's education services market [7][9] - The company's FY25E PS of 2.2x is in line with the education industry average [9]

2024 年 8 月 1 日 Microsoft (MSFT US) 来自彭博社的更多报告 ： 重新设置 CMBR < GO > 或 http: / / www. cmbi. com. hk 收益汇总 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 2 预测和估值的变化 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 3 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|--------------------|---------------|-------|------------|-------|-------|------------------|-----------|-----------| | 图 3 ： 微软 ： CMBI \n 十亿美元 | 预测与共识 \nFY25E | Current FY26E | FY27E | 共识 FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | 差异 FY25E FY26E | (%) | FY27E | | 收入 | 283. ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for New Oriental with a target price of US$95.00, down from the previous target of US$102.50, indicating a potential upside of 37.2% from the current price of US$69.25 [2][3]. Core Insights - New Oriental's core educational business has shown strong momentum, with a 32% year-over-year increase in net revenue for 4QFY24, reaching US$1,137 million, aligning with estimates [2]. - Non-GAAP net income for 4QFY24 declined by 41% year-over-year to US$36.9 million, primarily due to accelerated capacity expansion and increased investment in live streaming e-commerce [2]. - For FY24, total revenue and non-GAAP net income grew by 44% and 47% year-over-year, reaching US$4,314 million and US$381 million, respectively [2]. - Management expects total revenue for 1QFY25E to grow by 31-34% year-over-year, projecting a range of US$1,255-1,284 million [2]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23A revenue was US$2,998 million, increasing to US$4,314 million in FY24A, with projections of US$5,267 million for FY25E and US$6,258 million for FY26E [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit rose from US$258.9 million in FY23A to US$381.1 million in FY24A, with forecasts of US$571.7 million for FY25E and US$791.4 million for FY26E [3][11]. - The adjusted EPS is projected to increase from US$2.30 in FY24A to US$3.45 in FY25E and US$4.78 in FY26E [3][11]. Business Segments - The educational business has shown steady recovery, with overseas test prep and study consulting revenues growing by 17.7% and 17.3% year-over-year, respectively, in 4QFY24 [2]. - New educational initiatives reported a revenue increase of 50.3% year-over-year in 4QFY24, contributing approximately 20% to total revenue [2]. - East Buy is undergoing business adjustments, with revenue expected to decline by 20% year-over-year to US$741 million in FY25E due to management changes [2]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the educational and consulting business at US$89.9 per share based on a 30x FY25E PE, reflecting New Oriental's strong market position [8]. - East Buy is valued at US$1.7 per share based on a 7x FY25E PE, while the tourism segment is valued at US$3.3 per share based on a 15x FY25E PE [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on BaTeLab with a BUY rating and a target price (TP) of HK$49.8, based on a 19x 2024E P/E ratio [7][21][64]. Core Insights - BaTeLab is a leading provider of analog IC patterned wafers in China, focusing on the industrial-grade market, which has significant growth potential and high margins [7][20][21]. - The company has developed a unique full-stack design platform that integrates EDA, IP, and design, which enhances efficiency and reduces costs [7][21][62]. - BaTeLab's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 38.0% from 2023 to 2026, with expected revenue reaching RMB1,220 million by 2026 [7][64]. Financial Analysis - Revenue growth from RMB353 million in 2020 to RMB464 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 74% [64]. - Net profit margin (NPM) is estimated to be 22.5% in 2024 and 23.5% in 2025, indicating stable profitability [21][64]. - Gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to remain around 54% from 2024 to 2026 [21][64]. Market Position - BaTeLab was the largest provider of analog IC patterned wafers in China by revenue in 2022, holding a 1.7% market share [7][20]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for industrial-grade analog ICs in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5%, reaching RMB242 billion by 2027 [20][21]. - The industrial-grade analog IC market is characterized by high fragmentation, with the top five players holding only 5.0% of the market share [20][52]. Business Strategy - BaTeLab's business model focuses on the industrial-grade market, which has less competition compared to consumer-grade markets, allowing for better margin maintenance [20][21]. - The company leverages partnerships with distributors, which accounted for 82.3% of total revenue in 1H23, to enhance growth while keeping operating costs low [20][21]. - The full-stack design platform allows BaTeLab to mitigate geopolitical risks and achieve cost advantages, enhancing its competitive position [21][62].

31 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) Impressive order growth despite geopolitical uncertainties WuXi AppTec reported 1H24 revenue of RMB17.24bn, down 8.6% YoY, attributable recurring net profit of RMB4.41bn, down 8.3% YoY, and attributable adjusted non-IFRS net profit of RMB4.37bn, down 14.2% YoY. 1H24 revenue / attributable adjusted non-IFRS net income accounted for 45.3%/ 46.0% of our 2024 full-year estimates and 43.8%/ 44.7% of Bloomberg ...

2024 年 7 月 31 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 越秀运输 （ 1052 香港 ） 1H24E 预览 ： 预计净利润同比增长 - 14% 由于交通分流 (上一个 TP HK $5.90 HK $7.20) 53.6% 越秀运输将在下周二 （ 8 月 6 日 ） 报告其 1H24 业绩。鉴于下降 在 5M24 年交通分流的交通量和收入方面 ， 我们 预测其上半年净利润将同比下降 14% ， 至 3.66 亿元人民币。我们下调 我们的 2024E - 26E 盈利预测为 17 - 19% ， 因为我们预计交通分流 一些主要的高速公路将继续。展望未来 ， 我们看到 公司持股比例 (至 12%)招商高速公路 (001965 CH, NR)暗示河南潜在资产注入的进展 平林高速公路 (河南平临高速) 和其他形式的潜在合作。 上 / 下 当前价格 港币 3.84 元 目标价格 中国收费公路 Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung @ cmbi. com. hk 维护购买新的基于 DCF 的 TP 为 5.9 港元 (以前为 7.2 港元) ， 暗示 ...

2024 年 7 月 31 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 药明康德 （ 603259 CH ） 尽管地缘政治 ， 但令人印象深刻的订单增长 不确定性 (上一个 TP RMB54.27 RMB53.23) 33.4% 药明康德公布 1H24 营收 172.4 亿元人民币 ， 同比下降 8.6% ， 归属经常性净利润 441 亿元 ， 同比下降 8.3% ， 归属 调整后的非国际财务报告准则净利润 43.7 亿元人民币 ， 同比下降 14.2% 。 1H24 收入 / 可归属调整后的非国际财务报告准则净收入占我们的 45.3% / 46.0% 2024 年全年预估和彭博社共识的 43.8% / 44.7% ， 均为 这在很大程度上符合其历史范围。非 COVID D & M 收入 (在化学部分) 经历了 2.7% 的同比小幅下降 1H24 ， 继 1H23 年基数相对较高之后。值得注意的是 ， 药明康德的积压、 不包括 COVID - 19 商业项目 ， 上半年同比增长 33.2% ， 表明在地缘政治不确定性中客户需求强劲。管理层有 重申其 2024 年 38.3 - 405 亿元人民币的收 ...