2024 年 8 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 海外 CXO/生命科学上游 2Q24 业绩剖析：生命科学上游继 续预期需求复苏 我们总结了海外主要 CXO 和生命科学上游公司的 2Q24 业绩情况，所关注的公 司涉及临床 CRO、临床前 CRO、C(D)MO以及生命科学上游。我们发现，2023 年各子板块业绩出现分化，后期阶段 CXO 业绩好于早期阶段 CXO，非生产类 CXO 的业绩好于生产类 CXO。但 1Q24 各子板块业绩差异减小，2Q24 业绩差 异继续缩窄，同时生命科学上游和 C(D)MO 公司的业绩表现较好。值得注意的 是，2Q24 仅有生命科学上游公司管理层继续预计 24 年下半年需求将复苏。 生命科学上游和 C(D)MO 公司的 2Q24 业绩表现较好。我们认为药企将更多 资源用于推进重点临床后期临床项目、新冠药物需求造成 C(D)MO 业绩基数 高、以及疫情后 C(D)MO 产能利用率相对较低导致了 2023 年子板块业绩分 化。从 1Q24 开始各子板块业绩差异持续减小，我们认为有三个原因：1） 临床 CRO 公司 2023 年业绩基数高；2）临床 ...

16 Aug 2024 JD.com (JD US) better-than-expected 2Q earnings growth | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------------| | Target Price Up/Downside Current Price | | US$51.90 100.4% US$25.90 | | China Internet | | | | Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk | | | | Ye TAO franktao@cmbi.com.hk | | | | Wentao LU, CFA luwen ...

21 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xpeng Inc. (XPEV US) Mona M03 may not be the game-changer Maintain HOLD. Xpeng's 2Q24 earnings were largely in line with our forecast. Although we assume its 2H24E sales volume to more than double HoH, we see no loss narrowing HoH in 2H24E. We believe that Xpeng's vehicle gross margin could be capped by the lower-priced Mona models, as the company now bets on these models to boost sales. We are of the view that the underlying ra ...

21 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) Innovative bispecific ADC product licensed to MSD Kelun-Biotech recorded RMB1.38bn (+32% YoY) revenue in 1H24, including a total of US$90mn (or RMB641mn) milestone payments from MSD regarding multiple collaborated pipelines. In 1H24, Kelun-Biotech spent RMB652mn on R&D, +33% YoY, mainly driven by an uptick in clinical trials. The company is gearing up for the near-term launch of several key assets in Chin ...

Investment Rating - Initiate at BUY with a target price (TP) of HK$21.41, representing a 21.1% upside from the current price of HK$17.68 [3][4][12]. Core Insights - Rimag Group is a leading medical imaging service provider in China, holding the largest market share in terms of medical imaging centers, equipment units, and registrations by practicing radiologists [1][16]. - The medical imaging service market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.6%, reaching RMB661.5 billion by 2030, with the third-party medical imaging center market expected to grow at a CAGR of 30.7% to RMB18.6 billion by 2030 [1][7]. - Rimag's revenue increased at a CAGR of 25.3% from RMB592 million in 2021 to RMB928.9 million in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 23.3% from 2023 to 2026 [10][12][29]. Summary by Sections Investment Thesis - The third-party medical imaging center market in China has significant growth potential due to unmet demand for quality services and favorable government policies [6][7]. - Rimag is positioned to lead this market with a comprehensive suite of services and a strong operational model [7][8]. Market Overview - The medical imaging market in China faces challenges such as low equipment per capita and an imbalance in resource distribution, leading to long wait times in public hospitals [6][20]. - Rimag has established 97 imaging centers across 17 provinces, conducting approximately 20,000 examinations daily [8][16]. Business Model - Rimag operates a comprehensive medical imaging platform that includes imaging center services, imaging solution services, and Rimag Cloud services [22][24]. - The company provides operational management services to enhance the capabilities of regional and primary healthcare institutions [11][32]. Financial Performance - Rimag's attributable net profit increased from RMB0.4 million in 2022 to RMB44 million in 2023, with a net profit margin of 4.8% [10][29]. - Revenue from imaging center services accounted for 68.7% of total revenue in 2023, growing at a CAGR of 20.1% [36]. Competitive Landscape - Rimag holds 31 out of 163 third-party medical imaging center licenses in China, representing 19% of the total market [16][17]. - The company ranks second in revenue generated from imaging center services among all third-party operators in China [10][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xtep with a target price of HK$7.32, indicating a potential upside of 44.0% from the current price of HK$5.08 [4][7]. Core Views - Despite challenges in the sportswear industry, Xtep is expected to outperform in the mid to long run due to successful new product launches, strong e-commerce sales, and growth from the Saucony brand [2][7]. - The company has reiterated its FY24E guidance, projecting high single-digit to low-teens sales growth and net profit growth of 20% or above [2][7]. Financial Performance - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB 14,994 million, with a gross profit of RMB 6,592 million, resulting in a gross margin of 44.0% [8][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 1,264 million, with a diluted EPS of RMB 0.463 [8][11]. - In 1H24, Xtep's sales rose by 10% YoY to RMB 7.2 billion, with net profit increasing by 13% YoY to RMB 752 million [7][10]. Sales Growth and Margins - Retail sales growth for the Xtep brand is anticipated to be resilient at high single digits in 2H24E, supported by new product launches and e-commerce initiatives [2][7]. - The Saucony brand has shown remarkable performance with over 70% sales growth in 1H24, prompting an upward revision of its sales growth guidance to 50% or above [2][7]. - The report highlights improved margins due to cost control measures, economies of scale, and reduced advertising expenses [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - Xtep is positioned as a value-for-money brand with leadership in running categories, which is expected to help it outperform the industry despite macro uncertainties [7]. - The strategic disposal of K&P has allowed the company to refocus resources on its core brand and running segments, contributing to margin expansion [2][7]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 10x for FY24E, which is considered attractive compared to its historical average of 15x [7][8]. - The expected dividend yield for FY24E is 14%, further enhancing the stock's appeal [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Yancoal Australia with a target price revised down to HK$42 from HK$45, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HK$35.90 [2][11]. Core Insights - Yancoal's 1H24 net profit decreased by 57% year-over-year to A$420 million, primarily due to higher-than-expected unit costs and a significant decline in blended coal average selling price (ASP) [2][3]. - The company has a strong net cash position of A$1.42 billion as of the end of June 2024, which may facilitate potential M&A activities [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, Yancoal maintains its full-year guidance for production and operating cash costs, with expectations for a unit cash cost reduction in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H24 was A$3.1 billion, down 21% year-over-year, with coal sales volume growth of 16.9 million tonnes being offset by lower prices [2][3]. - The unit cash operating cost in 1H24 was A$101 per tonne, a decrease of 7% year-over-year but an increase of 17% quarter-over-quarter [2][3]. - The report projects a full-year revenue of A$7.138 billion for FY24, reflecting an 8.2% decline compared to FY23 [14]. Production and Cost Guidance - Yancoal's full-year production guidance remains unchanged at 35-39 million tonnes, with operating cash costs expected to be between A$89-97 per tonne [2][3]. - The report anticipates a 7% year-over-year reduction in unit cash costs in the second half of 2024, despite the current higher cost assumptions [2][3]. Market Conditions - The blended coal ASP fell by 37% year-over-year to A$176 per tonne, contributing to the decline in revenue and profit [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for Yancoal to benefit from product diversification and long-term growth strategies, particularly in light of its strong cash position [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation based on net present value (NPV) with key assumptions including long-term thermal and metallurgical coal prices starting in 2027 at A$130 and A$200 per tonne, respectively [11][12]. - The projected P/E ratio for FY24 is 6.6, indicating a relatively attractive valuation compared to historical performance [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for J&T Express has been upgraded from Hold to Buy [1][2]. Core Insights - J&T Express achieved a net profit of $31 million in the first half of 2024, a significant improvement compared to losses of $264 million and $168 million in the first and second halves of 2023, respectively [1]. - The company is on a clearer path to sustainable profitability due to ongoing cost-cutting trends in Southeast Asia and China [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 grew by 22% year-on-year to $1.52 billion, driven by a 42% increase in parcel volume, although this was offset by a 14% decline in average selling price (ASP) [1][6]. - The target price has been adjusted to HK$10 from HK$12.80, reflecting a more conservative valuation approach post-industry correction [1][10]. Southeast Asia Performance - In the first half of 2024, revenue in Southeast Asia increased by 22% to $1.52 billion, with parcel volume rising by 42% to 2 billion units [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 14% to $0.74, while market share increased by 2 percentage points to 27.4% [1][6]. - The unit gross margin only declined by 8% year-on-year to $0.14 due to a 16% reduction in annual unit costs [1]. China Performance - Revenue in China grew by 36% year-on-year to $3 billion in the first half of 2024, supported by a 37% increase in parcel volume to 8.8 billion units [1]. - The ASP remained stable at $0.34, with market share expanding by 1.1 percentage points to 11% [1][6]. - The unit cost decreased by 6% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of $0.02 per parcel [1]. New Markets - Revenue in new markets surged by 120% year-on-year to $292 million in the first half of 2024, driven by a 64% increase in parcel volume [1]. - However, growth is expected to moderate in the second half of 2024 due to new tariffs affecting cross-border e-commerce in Brazil [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24E and FY25E have been revised upwards by 12% and 7%, respectively [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach $186.5 million in FY24E and $495.6 million in FY25E [2]. - The company is projected to achieve a P/E ratio of 39.7x in FY24E, decreasing to 15.2x in FY25E [2]. Valuation Methodology - The target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, applying different EV/EBITDA multiples for various markets [10][11]. - Southeast Asia is assigned a target P/E of 15x, reflecting a premium due to competitive advantages and market share growth [10]. - The valuation for China has shifted to an EV/EBITDA approach, applying a target multiple of 10x, which is approximately 50% higher than local peers [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Giant Biogene [2][21]. Core Insights - Giant Biogene reported revenue of RMB 25.4 billion for 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 58%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 12% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 48% to RMB 9.83 billion, also surpassing consensus estimates by 13% [1]. - The Comfy brand showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 69% to RMB 20.7 billion in 1H24 [1]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and market reach, despite a slight decrease in gross margin to 82.4% [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 50.89 billion in FY24E, representing a 44% year-on-year increase, and to RMB 68.60 billion in FY25E, a 35% increase [6][15]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 18.77 billion in FY24E and RMB 24.35 billion in FY25E, with growth rates of 36% and 26% respectively [2][6]. Financial Summary - The company reported a gross profit of RMB 41.84 billion for FY24E, with a gross margin of 82.20% [6][15]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is projected at RMB 1.83, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.1 [6][19]. - The target price for the stock is set at HKD 62.07, reflecting a potential upside of 52.3% from the current price of HKD 40.75 [4][11]. Market Position and Brand Performance - The Comfy brand's flagship product, Comfy Collagen Stick, is expected to see revenue growth of approximately 50% in April 2024 [1]. - The company is actively expanding its offline sales channels for the Comfy brand, which has shown explosive potential during promotional events [1]. - The Collgene brand has also seen significant online sales growth, contributing to 23.6% of total revenue in 1H24 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep with a target price of HKD 7.32, reflecting a potential upside of 44% from the current price of HKD 5.08 [2][7]. Core Insights - Despite cautious sales growth, the report expresses confidence in Xtep's ability to outperform the market in the medium to long term, driven by new product launches, strong e-commerce sales, and a high proportion of wholesale business [1][7]. - The retail sales trend for Xtep is expected to remain resilient, with anticipated growth in the second half of 2024, supported by strategic initiatives and strong performance from the Saucony brand [1][7]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in profit margins due to cost control measures and increased sales of star products, projecting a net profit growth target of 20% or more for FY24E [1][7]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB 14,994 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5% [2][8]. - The operating profit is expected to reach RMB 1,903 million, while net profit is forecasted at RMB 1,273 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.4% [2][8]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 10.1 for FY24E, which is attractive compared to the historical average of 15 times [7][8]. Sales Performance - Xtep's sales revenue for the first half of 2024 increased by 10% year-on-year, reaching RMB 7.2 billion, with net profit rising by 13% to RMB 752 million [7][10]. - The gross profit margin improved significantly, driven by the strong sales of key products like the 360X [7][10]. - The report notes that online sales performed best, followed by the children's market, with respective growth rates of 7% and 10% [7][10]. Market Position - Xtep is positioned well within the sportswear industry, benefiting from a strong brand presence and effective marketing strategies, particularly in the running category [1][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Saucony brand, which saw sales growth exceeding 70% in the first half of 2024, leading to an upward revision of its sales growth target to 50% or more [1][7]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a cautious outlook for FY25E, anticipating moderate growth due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but still expects Xtep to outperform the industry [7][11]. - The company is expected to achieve high single-digit to low double-digit sales growth for its core brands, supported by ongoing product upgrades and a focus on value [7][11].