Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Li Ning, with a trimmed target price of HK$ 16.18, based on a 12x FY24E P/E, down from 15x due to industry de-rating [2][7]. Core Insights - Short-term risks include potential retail discounts, trade fair order adjustments, unfavorable channel mix, operating deleverage, and fixed operating expenses. However, long-term value is still recognized, particularly with an ex-cash FY24E P/E of 5-6x [2][7]. - The FY24E guidance has been revised down to low-single-digit sales growth from mid-single-digit, with a low-teen net profit margin maintained. Retail sales were weak, falling by high-single digits in July to mid-August 2024 [2][7]. - The report indicates a cautious outlook for 2H24E, with retail sales growth forecasts cut to -4% for 3Q24E and +6% for 4Q24E, reflecting a weakening recovery rate compared to 2019 [2][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB 28,162 million, with a YoY growth of 2%. Operating profit is expected to be RMB 3,659 million, and net profit is projected at RMB 3,103 million, reflecting a decrease of 8.8% compared to previous estimates [8][9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 49.0% for FY24E, with EBIT margin at 13.0% and net profit margin at 11.0% [9][11]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 1.96 billion for 1H24, a 7% YoY decline, but beat estimates due to better-than-expected gross profit margin expansion [7][10]. Sales and Channel Performance - In 1H24, sales growth for e-commerce was 11%, while direct retail grew by 3%, and wholesale declined by 2%. The direct retail growth was primarily driven by strong performance in the outlet channel [7][10]. - The report highlights a decline in retail sales, attributed to weaker macro conditions, rising competition, and ineffective marketing strategies. The retail sales to inventory ratio was healthy at 3.9x in 1H24 [7][10]. Earnings Revision - The report revises down FY24E/25E/26E net profit estimates by 9%/12%/13% due to weaker retail sales growth, less improvement in retail discounts, and higher advertising and promotion expenses [7][8]. - The stock is currently trading at 10x FY24E P/E and 9x FY25E P/E, with a long-term positive view maintained despite short-term challenges [7][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as BUY with a target price of HKD 17.90, reflecting a potential upside of 73.4% from the current price of HKD 10.32 [2][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of RMB 91.6 billion for 1H24, representing a year-on-year increase of 270%, exceeding the previous estimate of 220% [1]. - The strong profit growth is attributed to the unexpected expansion in unit gross margins for aluminum and alumina, with aluminum unit gross margin doubling to RMB 4,277 per ton and alumina unit gross margin increasing by 230% to RMB 748 per ton [1]. - The proposed interim dividend is HKD 0.59 per share, indicating a payout ratio of approximately 57% [1]. Revenue and Profit Breakdown - Aluminum Alloy Products (67% of revenue): Revenue increased by approximately 7% year-on-year to RMB 49 billion, with sales volume up 0.5% to 284 million tons and average selling price (ASP) rising by 7% to RMB 17,379 per ton [1]. - Alumina Segment (22% of revenue): Revenue grew by about 20% year-on-year to RMB 16 billion, with sales volume up 2.4% to 5.5 million tons and ASP increasing by 17% to RMB 2,942 per ton [1]. - Aluminum Processing Products (10% of revenue): Revenue surged by approximately 34% year-on-year to RMB 7.58 billion, with sales volume up 36% to 3.79 million tons, although ASP decreased by 1% to RMB 20,027 per ton [1]. Price Sensitivity and Market Conditions - A 1% increase in aluminum prices is expected to enhance the company's earnings by approximately 4% [1]. - The latest Shanghai aluminum price rebounded from RMB 18,835 per ton to RMB 19,310 per ton since early August, with an average price of RMB 19,500 per ton at the end of the quarter, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24 are estimated at RMB 142.33 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24 is forecasted to be RMB 16.10 billion, representing a 40.5% increase compared to FY23 [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio of 9.8x for FY24, which is above its historical average of 6x [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$10.80, representing an 84.9% upside from the current price of HK$5.84 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 11.9% year-on-year for 1H24, down from 16.8% in 1H23, attributed to extended transaction cycles and macroeconomic headwinds affecting small and micro enterprises [2]. - The net loss for 1H24 was RMB 218 million, a 23% decrease year-on-year, indicating a commitment to improving operational efficiency [2]. - The company's core SaaS product, Galaxy, showed a healthy annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 24% in 1H24, although this was a decline from 29% in 1H23 [2]. - Cloud revenue grew by 17.2% year-on-year, reaching RMB 2.4 billion, accounting for 83.2% of total revenue, up from 79.5% in 1H23 [2]. - The company expects revenue growth to accelerate to 16% in 2H24, despite a 4% downward revision in the 2024 revenue forecast [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 6.475 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to improve significantly, with a forecasted loss of only RMB 11.5 million for FY24E, compared to a loss of RMB 209.9 million in FY23A [3][4]. - Gross profit margin is projected to be 64.9% for FY24E, slightly improving from 64.5% in FY23A [4][5]. - Operating cash flow (OCF) guidance for 2024 remains at RMB 900 million, indicating confidence in operational efficiency improvements [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from large enterprises grew by 38.9% year-on-year in 1H24, indicating stable demand despite longer transaction cycles [2]. - The Galaxy product line generated RMB 1.1 billion in revenue for 1H24, marking a 14.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The contribution of cloud revenue continues to rise, with a significant increase in the share of total revenue [2]. Market Position and Outlook - The management remains optimistic about the recovery of demand, particularly for small enterprises, and anticipates a gradual improvement in contract values and transaction cycles [2]. - The company signed 275 new customers for its C&C business in 1H24, emphasizing the solid expansion trajectory of its lifetime contract value (LTCV) [2].

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update RemeGen (9995 HK) Strong sales performance in 2Q In 2Q24, RemeGen recorded strong product sales, with revenue reaching RMB411mn (+77% YoY), mainly from the product sales of RC18 and RC48, compared to RMB330mn in 1Q24 (+24% QoQ) and RMB254mn in 2Q23 (+62% YoY). The total product sales were RMB729mn in 1H24 (+75% YoY), representing approximately 47% of our previous FY24 estimate, largely in line with our expectations. We are reass ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中兴通讯 (000063 CH) 混合 1H24 结果 中兴通讯宣布了2024年半年度结果。收入较上年同期增长2.9%，至人民币625亿元，净利润 则增长4.8%，至57亿元。尽管国内电信运营商对中兴通讯的电信业务面临资本支出下滑的逆 风，但非电信业务实现了两位数的增长（消费者和政府/企业部门分别同比增长14.3%和 56.1%）。按季度来看，第二季度的收入较上年同期增长1.1% / 季比增长4.4%，净利润增长 5.7% / 季比增长9.1%。毛利率环比下降至39%，主要由于不利的产品组合（即高利润率的电 信部门贡献减少）。运营成本优化使得2024年第二季度的净利润率环比改善至9.4%（相比第 一季度和2023财年的9% / 7.5%）。展望未来，我们认为非电信业务将维持两位数的增长，这 将抵消电信业务的疲软。该股目前市盈率为 11.9 倍 2024E ， 维持买入 ， 调整后 TP 为 32.86 元。 在面对国内电信公司对资本支出的严格控制以及中国5G网络建设已取得显著进展的背景 下，运营商部门面临逆风。预计到2024年，中国电信 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 49.8, based on 19x 2024 forecasted P/E [1][2] Core Views - Strong H1 2024 performance with revenue up 42.1% YoY to RMB 291 million and net profit up 46.3% YoY to RMB 67 million [1] - Revenue growth driven by expanded product portfolio (over 500 models by H1 2024), deepened customer relationships, and distribution network expansion [1] - Gross margin declined to 51.3% in H1 2024 due to increased inventory write-down provisions, but core gross margin remained stable at 55.2% [1] - Net margin improved to 23.1% in H1 2024, compared to 22.4% in H1 2023 and 23.5% in 2023 [1] - Revenue expected to grow at 40.2% and 37.8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, driven by product diversification and strong distributor relationships [2] Financial Performance - Revenue CAGR of 73.6% from 2020 to 2023, with product portfolio expanding from 8 models in 2020 to over 500 models by H1 2024 [2] - 90% of H1 2024 revenue came from distributors, up from 87.5% in 2023 [2] - Forecasted revenue for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 650 million and RMB 896 million, respectively, with net profit of RMB 146 million and RMB 210 million [3][8] - Gross margin expected to stabilize at 53%-55% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Valuation - Current 2024 and 2025 P/E ratios at 10x and 7x, respectively, considered highly attractive [2] - Target price implies a potential upside of 102.4% from the current price of HKD 24.6 [4] Industry and Market Position - Leading supplier of industrial-grade analog IC patterned wafers in China with proprietary EDA software and reusable IP library [1] - Strong R&D capabilities and execution by management team evidenced by rapid product portfolio expansion [2] Financial Projections - Forecasted sales revenue for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 650 million and RMB 896 million, with net profit of RMB 146 million and RMB 210 million [3][8] - Operating profit expected to grow at 36.1% and 42.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively [3] - ROE projected to improve from 16.1% in 2024 to 22.6% in 2026 [3]

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Net profit 1H24 +2.7x YoY, beat expectations Hongqiao's net profit came in at RMB9.16bn (+2.7x YoY), which is better than the pre-announced profit growth of 2.2x in Jun. Excluding the fair value loss of convertible bonds (CB), the core net profit would be even higher at RMB10.5bn (+3.3x YoY). The strong profit growth was driven by higher-than-expected unit gross margin expansion for both aluminum (Al) (+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Kingdee with a target price lowered to HK$10.80 per share from HK$15.50, indicating an upside potential of 84.9% from the current price of HK$5.84 [3]. Core Insights - Kingdee's revenue for 1H24 increased by 11.9% YoY to RMB2.87 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimates, attributed to a lengthened deal cycle and macroeconomic challenges affecting small and micro enterprises [2]. - The net loss for 1H24 was RMB218 million, representing a 23% YoY reduction and 20% narrower than consensus estimates, showcasing Kingdee's focus on improving operational efficiency [2]. - The company's core SaaS product, Galaxy, demonstrated healthy growth with a 24% YoY increase in subscription ARR in 1H24, although the dollar retention rate slightly decreased to 95% [2]. - Kingdee's cloud revenue grew by 17.2% YoY to RMB2.4 billion, accounting for 83.2% of total revenue, while license ERP revenue declined by 8.8% YoY [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E have been lowered by 4% to RMB6.475 billion, with expectations for 2H24 revenue growth to reaccelerate to 16% [2][6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 63.2% in 1H24, up 1.3 percentage points YoY, driven by increased cloud revenue contribution [2]. - Kingdee's operating loss is projected to narrow, with a forecasted net profit of RMB240.6 million in FY25E and RMB466.8 million in FY26E [5][9]. Customer and Market Dynamics - Kingdee signed 275 new customers for its Cosmic & Constellation (C&C) business in 1H24, with revenue growth of 38.9% YoY [2]. - The lifetime contract value (LTCV) for C&C customers has shown a solid expansion trajectory, indicating strong demand for localized software solutions [2]. - Management's guidance remains optimistic for operational cash flow (OCF) growth, targeting RMB900 million for 2024, despite a slower overall revenue growth pace [2].

2024 年 8 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀延续放缓 美国 7 月 CPI 与核心 CPI 增速符合预期，显示通胀延续放缓。以同比增速衡量， 商品通胀持续为负，房租通胀和其他服务通胀放缓，但仍分别达到 4.9%和 4.6%，因房租和工资合同调价存在滞后期。展望未来，CPI 与核心 CPI 增速可能 延续温和放缓，驱动因素包括房租通胀补跌、工资增速下降和大宗商品价格回 调。随着通胀延续下降和就业市场降温，美联储降息时机不断临近。9月降息已无 悬念，分歧在于降息幅度是 25 个基点还是 50 个基点。由于房租环比涨幅反弹， 市场预期 9 月降息 25 个基点概率从 47%升至 62.5%，降息 50 个基点概率从 53% 降至 37.5%。美联储的注意力已从抗通胀转向双目标平衡，对就业市场更加关 注。目前美国经济放缓仍属温和，通胀下降但仍高于 2%目标。我们预计美联储将 在 9 月和 12 月两次降息合计 50 个基点，明年进一步降息 4 次共 100 个基点。 CPI增速略低于预期，商品通胀延续为负。7月 CPI季调后环比增长 0.15%， 接近市场预期的 0.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of HKD 480, reflecting a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price of HKD 373.80 [3][17]. Core Insights - Tencent reported a total revenue of RMB 161.1 billion for Q2 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, which aligns closely with market expectations [3]. - Non-IFRS net income increased by 53% to RMB 57.3 billion, exceeding both the report's and market consensus forecasts by 17% and 18%, respectively, primarily due to a significant increase in share of profits from associates [3]. - The gaming segment showed a robust recovery with a 9% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by successful game launches and the revival of flagship titles [3]. - Online advertising revenue grew by 19% year-on-year, supported by strong performance in video accounts and long-form video advertising [3]. - Financial technology and business services revenue saw a modest 4% growth, indicating pressure from consumer spending and stricter risk management [3]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at RMB 658.2 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 214.6 billion, reflecting a 7.9% increase from previous estimates [8]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to be 53.3%, with an operating profit margin of 31.5% for FY24E [8]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% for non-IFRS net profit from 2024 to 2026, supported by high-quality growth strategies [3][34]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the value of Tencent's online gaming business at HKD 190.6 based on a projected P/E ratio of 18x for FY24E, which is in line with global gaming peers [10]. - The fintech business is valued at HKD 79.7, reflecting a premium over the industry average due to Tencent's strong position in China's digital payment market [11]. - The report applies a 30% holding company discount to the fair value of Tencent's strategic investments, estimating their contribution to be HKD 67.3 per share [23].