Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Sunny Optical to "Buy" with a target price of HK$67.88, reflecting a significant potential upside from the current price [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive profit warning for 1H24, projecting a year-on-year profit increase of 140-150%, driven by a recovery in gross profit margin (GPM), increased iPhone market share, and the adoption of hybrid/periscope camera technologies [2]. - Adjustments to FY24 and FY25 earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been made, increasing by 46-82% due to stronger GPM and market share growth [2][5]. - The anticipated launch of AI smartphones is expected to accelerate the upgrade cycle in the second half of 2024 [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are set at RMB 39,816 million, RMB 44,259 million, and RMB 48,555 million, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 25.7%, 11.2%, and 9.7% [5][11]. - Net profit estimates for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB 2,458 million, RMB 2,709 million, and RMB 3,315 million, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 123.6%, 10.2%, and 22.4% [5][11]. - The report indicates a recovery in GPM, with projections of 16.4% for FY24E, 16.8% for FY25E, and 17.6% for FY26E [7][11]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Sunny Optical is expected to capture increased demand from iPhone and Android customers, with iPhone market share projected to grow to 18% in 2024 and 25% in 2025 [2]. - The report anticipates significant growth in the automotive lens segment, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from FY22 to FY24E [8]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the smartphone market and the introduction of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) products [2][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.2x for FY25E, reflecting the company's diversified growth across multiple business segments [8][9]. - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with different P/E ratios assigned to various business units, including 18x for camera modules and 35x for automotive lenses [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TK Group with a target price (TP) of HKD 2.79, based on a FY24E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.2 times, consistent with its 5-year historical forward P/E ratio [2][17][28]. Core Views - TK Group reported a positive profit for the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year profit growth exceeding 40%. The optimistic outlook is supported by strong order momentum, new customer acquisitions, and recovery in revenue/profit margins across most segments [2][17]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% and a profit growth of 38% in FY24E, driven by increased orders in the consumer electronics sector and improved operational efficiency [17][35]. - The report highlights that TK Group has a solid cash position after repaying a significant portion of its bank loans in FY23, allowing for potential acquisitions and maintaining a high dividend payout level [17][35]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for TK Group are as follows: - FY22: HKD 2,279 million - FY23: HKD 1,946 million - FY24E: HKD 2,339 million (20.2% YoY growth) - FY25E: HKD 2,705 million (15.6% YoY growth) - FY26E: HKD 3,135 million (15.9% YoY growth) [3][30][32]. - Net profit estimates are: - FY22: HKD 226.9 million - FY23: HKD 204.2 million - FY24E: HKD 281.4 million (37.8% YoY growth) - FY25E: HKD 334.8 million (19.0% YoY growth) - FY26E: HKD 399.1 million (19.2% YoY growth) [3][30][32]. - The report indicates an expected gross profit margin (GPM) increase to 24.3% in 1H24E from 23.3% in 1H23, reflecting improved operational leverage [17][35]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - P/E ratio for FY24E: 5.6 - P/B ratio for FY24E: 0.9 - Dividend yield for FY24E: 8.1% [3][32]. - The report emphasizes that the stock offers an attractive risk/reward profile, considering the expected EPS growth of 38% in FY24E and a dividend yield of 8% [17][35].

| --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | | | 宏观：高质量发展是推进中国式现代化的首要任务，政策利好科技行业与高 | | | | 端制造业，但提振消费政策依然较少。构建统一大市场和新型城镇化利好核 心城市、大众消费、科技行业、大数据公司、智能电网产业链和能源资源行 | 叶丙南 , Ph.D 刘泽晖 | | | 业龙头国企。在土地财政萎缩背景下，财税体制改革重点是为地方财政开 | 伍力恒 | | | 源，相关行业税负可能上升。未来金融业发展重点是科技金融、绿色金融、 普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融。 | 李汉卿 | | | 科技：会议强调发展新质生产力，促进实体经济和数字经济深度融合，健全 | 刘梦楠 | | | 现代化基础设施建设，提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平 ...

2024 ¥ 7 月 22 日 招煤国际环球市场 | **** | 行业研究 中 国 医 药 政策利好持续兑现 年初至今,MSCI 中国區方指数下跌 24.3%,跑輪 MSCI 中国指数 27.9%;近期行 业初现反弹趋势。目前行业指数的动态市盈单为 23.8 倍,低于 12 年历史均值。宠 的三中全会及国常会再次弥落推进大规模设备更新。7月5日,国务院常务会议审 议通过《全链条支持创新跨发展实范方案》。医疗反腐已进行一年,我们预期随着 行业监管常态化,医药行业的盈利有望从 2H24 开始逐步修复。此外,海外降息预 期或将推动高辞性的创新药/器械板块体值反弹。我们继续看好龙头医疗设备、龙 头创新药(包含创药/Biotech)、业绩礼实且估值吸引的消费医疗企业。 ■ 三中全会弄火铁词"这条是新",国体会研究落地。7月19日国务院常务会议 研究加大力度支持大规模设备更新和消费品议旧换新政策措施。会议决定,统 筹安排起长期特别国债资金,进一步推动大规模设备更新标消费品以旧换新。 此外,三中全会相关新闻发布会也提到,"实施好大规模谈备更新和消费品以 旧换新政策,投入更多病金白银,办大政策支持力度,让企业和消费者获得实 ...

22 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Positive profit alert alleviates GPM concerns; Upgrade to BUY We upgrade Sunny Optical to BUY and raise our TP to HK$67.88 following 1H24 positive profit alert of 140-150% YoY growth, as we think Sunny's GPM recovery, iPhone share gain and hybrid/periscope cam adoption are tracking ahead of expectations. We revised up our FY24-25E EPS by 46-82% to reflect stronger GPM, iPhone share gain (18%/25% in 2024/2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for TK Group with a target price of HK$2.79, indicating a potential upside of 46.8% from the current price of HK$1.90 [8][21][40]. Core Insights - TK Group announced a positive profit alert for 1H24, projecting over 40% year-on-year earnings growth, primarily driven by strong orders in the smartphone and wearables segments [4][7]. - The company is expected to achieve 20% sales growth and 38% earnings growth year-on-year in FY24, supported by new client orders and improved operational efficiency [4][7]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 24.3% in 1H24, up from 23.3% in 1H23, due to a better product mix and utilization improvements [4][37]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - TK Group's revenue for 1H24E is projected at HK$1,025 million, reflecting a 19.8% increase year-on-year, with net profit expected to reach HK$77 million, a 41.4% increase [37]. - The gross margin is expected to rise to 24.3%, while the operating margin is projected at 6.2% for 1H24E [37]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to grow from HK$1,946 million in FY23 to HK$2,339 million in FY24, representing a 20.2% year-on-year increase [30][42]. - Net profit is expected to increase from HK$204.2 million in FY23 to HK$281.4 million in FY24, marking a 37.8% growth [30][42]. Valuation - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 5.6x for FY24E, which is considered attractive given the expected earnings growth and dividend yield of 8% [4][40]. - The target price of HK$2.79 is based on an 8.2x FY24E P/E, aligning with the company's historical valuation metrics [40]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include strong order pipelines from major clients such as Meta, SONOS, and Polycom, alongside anticipated product launches from major tech companies [4][7]. - The company is well-positioned for potential M&A opportunities due to substantial cash reserves following debt repayments [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Meidong Auto, with a revised target price of HK$3.00, down from HK$4.00, based on a 10x FY25E EPS valuation [2][5]. Core Views - Despite facing strong industry headwinds, Meidong is expected to remain profitable in 1H24, with a projected net profit of RMB43 million, supported by subsidies from Porsche and Lexus [2]. - The outlook for FY25 is anticipated to improve due to the removal of the convertible bond burden and a new NEV model cycle for BMW, leading to a projected net profit of RMB360 million [2]. - The report highlights a decline in new car sales volume by 8% YoY to 29,200 units in 1H24, with a significant drop in average selling price by 13% YoY [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at RMB24,141 million, a decrease of 15% YoY, with gross profit expected to drop by 11% YoY to RMB1,877 million [11]. - The new car gross margin is expected to fall to -3.7% in 1H24, marking the lowest in history, while after-sales service revenue is projected to rise by 12% YoY [2][11]. - The report indicates a significant decline in net profit from RMB521 million in FY22 to RMB140 million in FY23, with a forecasted recovery to RMB360 million in FY25 [11][12].

政策受益方向：新一代信息技术、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、新材料、高端装备、生 物医药、量子科技等新质生产力相关行业；制造业高端化、智能化和绿色化等新型工业化 方向；数字产业化和产业数字化等数字经济方向；生产性服务业高质量发展、产业互联 网、生活性服务业等；基础设施数字化改造、综合交通运输体系、通用航空和低空经济 等；集成电路、工业母机、医疗装备、仪器仪表、基础软件、工业软件、先进材料等重点 产业链。 2024 年 7 月 22 日 三中全会政策解读 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 必选消费：强文化自信或引国风更盛。我们认为会议对必选消费板块带来的 | | 潜在影响可总结为"强文化自信或助国风更盛，挖内需潜力或赋能本土品 | | 牌"，我们从会议中提炼出了以下关键词： 1 ）激发文化创新活力，优化文 | 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 中国策略 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Yancoal Australia with a target price of HK$45, indicating a potential upside of 23.1% from the current price of HK$36.55 [4][12]. Core Insights - Yancoal's 2Q24 sales volume increased by 1% year-on-year, with a total attributable sales volume of 8.6 million tonnes. The company remains confident in achieving its full-year sales volume target of 37.3 million tonnes [2][12]. - The average selling price (ASP) for thermal coal decreased by 17% year-on-year to A$163 per tonne, while metallurgical coal ASP dropped by 21% to A$318 per tonne. The blended ASP fell by 20% to A$181 per tonne [2][12]. - Yancoal's financial position is solid, with a gross cash balance of A$1.55 billion as of the end of June 2024, indicating a strong net cash position moving forward [2][12]. Sales Volume and Revenue - In 2Q24, attributable sales volume for thermal coal was 7.5 million tonnes, up 3% year-on-year, while metallurgical coal sales volume was 1 million tonnes, down 17% year-on-year. Total attributable sales volume for 1H24 grew 17% year-on-year to 16.8 million tonnes [2][6]. - The estimated revenue for 2Q24 was approximately A$1.5 billion, reflecting a 20% decrease year-on-year but a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][14]. Financial Performance - The report projects a full-year revenue of A$7.133 billion for 2024, with a net profit forecast of A$1.477 billion, down from A$1.819 billion in 2023 [14][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at A$1.12, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.2x [14][17]. Cost and Production Guidance - Yancoal's operating cash cost is projected to be between A$89 and A$97 per tonne, reflecting a year-on-year change of -7% to +1% [2][12]. - The company maintains its full-year guidance for attributable saleable production at 35-39 million tonnes, which represents a year-on-year increase of 5% to 17% [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a basket of 26 long positions with an average return of -4.1%, compared to the MSCI China index return of -2.2% [8]. - Among the 26 long positions, 4 stocks recorded returns of 5% or more, and 11 outperformed the benchmark [8]. Summary by Company - **Li Auto (LI US)**: Buy rating, target price of 26.00, potential upside of 24%, FY24E P/E of 21.2 [2]. - **Geely Automobile (175 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 14.00, potential upside of 70%, FY24E P/E of 11.7, dividend yield of 2.5% [2]. - **Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 7.50, potential upside of 60%, FY24E P/E of 8.4 [2]. - **Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 75.00, potential upside of 48%, FY24E P/E of 12.6, dividend yield of 1.9% [2]. - **Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 2219.00, potential upside of 50%, FY24E P/E of 23.1, dividend yield of 1.5% [2]. - **Tencent (700 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 480.00, potential upside of 29%, FY24E P/E of 17.8 [2]. - **Alibaba (BABA US)**: Buy rating, target price of 124.90, potential upside of 59%, FY24E P/E of 19.4 [2]. - **Xiaomi Group (1810 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 25.39, potential upside of 55%, FY24E P/E of 16.2 [2]. - **BYD Electronics (285 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 45.15, potential upside of 28%, FY24E P/E of 14.0, dividend yield of 1.6% [2]. - **Northern Huachuang (002371 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 405.00, potential upside of 15%, FY24E P/E of 32.2 [2].