Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Kuaishou with a target price of HK$97, indicating a potential upside of 66.8% from the current price of HK$58.15 [2][3][4] Core Insights - Kuaishou reported a strong quarterly performance with revenue and net profit growth of 17% and 10,348% year-over-year, respectively, surpassing consensus estimates [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from a new HK$16 billion share repurchase program, which is anticipated to enhance its market valuation [2] - The forecast for Q2 2024 includes a revenue increase of 9.5% year-over-year, driven by resilient advertising and other services revenue growth of 22.5% and 24%, respectively [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB 125,544 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10.6% [3][17] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 17,247 million in FY24E, with a significant increase in diluted EPS to RMB 3.74 [3][15] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 54.2% in FY24E, while the operating margin is expected to be 11.6% [15][18] Segment Performance - The revenue breakdown for Q1 2024 shows a decline in livestreaming revenue by 8%, while advertising and other services grew by 27% and 48%, respectively [2][5] - The company anticipates continued strong momentum in its advertising and e-commerce segments for Q2 2024, with total revenue expected to grow by 9.5% year-over-year [2][3] Market Position and Valuation - Kuaishou's market capitalization is approximately HK$254 billion, with significant shareholding from Tencent Holdings (18.8%) and Morningside Venture Capital (15.6%) [4][18] - The report highlights a favorable valuation with a P/S ratio of 1.9 and a P/E ratio of 13.8 for FY24E, indicating potential for further rerating [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of US$65.8, up from the previous target of US$49.0, indicating a potential upside of 17.9% from the current price of US$55.83 [3][12]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB11.9 billion for Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.4%, which exceeded both the forecast and consensus estimates [2]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on globalization opportunities beyond the current pent-up demand in the travel industry, leveraging its one-stop shop business model and strong customer service capabilities [2][7]. - Management anticipates that international business will contribute over 20% of total revenue within the next 3-5 years, supported by a significant total addressable market in Asia that is 1.5 times that of China [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Trip.com achieved a non-GAAP operating income of RMB3.8 billion, surpassing forecasts due to better gross profit margins and controlled marketing expenses [2][10]. - The company expects revenue for Q2 2024 to reach RMB12.9 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth [2]. Market Position and Growth Strategy - Trip.com’s domestic travel bookings grew at a double-digit rate year-over-year in Q2 2024, outpacing the overall market [9]. - The international flight capacity rebounded to 70% of pre-pandemic levels, with Trip.com outperforming the industry by 20-30% in outbound travel bookings [8][9]. - The inbound travel revenue, which accounted for approximately 20% of Trip.com’s revenue in Q1 2024, is expected to further support revenue growth [7]. Operational Efficiency - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for Q1 2024 was 31.6%, significantly better than forecasted, driven by disciplined sales and marketing spending [2][10]. - The company aims to maintain efficient marketing expenditures focused on return on investment, which is expected to stabilize the operating profit margin despite a high base [2][10]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB52.8 billion, RMB59.5 billion, and RMB65.8 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.5%, 12.6%, and 10.6% [10][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain strong at around 81.3% for 2024, with operating margins projected to improve to 26.2% [10][11].

Investment Rating - Maintain HOLD rating with a target price of US$10.00, down from US$10.50, indicating a potential upside of 14.0% from the current price of US$8.77 [2][4]. Core Views - Management's positive outlook on the new Mona model and B-class sedan has likely boosted investor confidence in Xpeng's sales growth for 4Q24 and FY25, although this growth has already been incorporated into previous forecasts [2]. - Xpeng's 1Q24 revenue exceeded prior forecasts by 4%, primarily due to a higher-than-expected average selling price (ASP), despite increased incentives [2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for 1Q24 was 12.9%, outperforming projections by 1.8 percentage points, largely due to increased R&D service income from Volkswagen [2]. - The company is projected to remain unprofitable in FY25E, with a net loss forecast of RMB5.6 billion [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB30.7 billion in FY23A to RMB44.7 billion in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.7% [4][9]. - The gross margin is projected to be 10.3% in FY24E, improving to 11.4% in FY25E, but still below the levels needed to cover selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses [4][9]. - The net loss is expected to decrease from RMB10.4 billion in FY23A to RMB6.0 billion in FY24E, and further to RMB5.6 billion in FY25E [4][9]. Sales Volume and ASP - The sales volume forecast for FY24E has been reduced by 20,000 units to 200,000 units, with expectations of nearly 150,000 units sold in the second half of 2024 [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) for 1Q24 was RMB300,082, reflecting a 35.6% year-on-year increase [8]. Earnings and Valuation - The net loss for 1Q24 was RMB1.4 billion, which was better than previous projections by approximately RMB0.2 billion [2]. - The projected FY25E revenue has been cut by 6% due to lowered ASPs for the new models [2]. - Xpeng's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is projected at 1.1x for FY25E, compared to competitors Li Auto and BYD, which are trading at 0.8x and 0.7x respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Tongcheng Travel with a target price of HK$26.1, implying a 23.1% upside from the current price of HK$21.20 [4][2]. Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel ("TC") reported a strong performance in 1Q24, with revenue increasing by 50% year-over-year (YoY) and adjusted net profit rising by 11% YoY, both exceeding consensus estimates [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue gaining market share in 2Q24, driven by robust travel demand during holidays and recovery in international business [2][3]. - For 2Q24, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 49% YoY, with core OTA revenue projected to increase by 23.5% YoY [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 1Q24, TC's revenue reached RMB 3,866 million, reflecting a 50% YoY growth and a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase [12][2]. - Adjusted net profit for 1Q24 was RMB 559 million, up 11% YoY, with a net profit margin of 14.4% [12][2]. - The company expects adjusted net profit to rise to RMB 621 million in 2Q24, indicating a slight improvement in net profit margin to 14.6% [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - In 1Q24, revenue from transportation increased by 26% YoY, hotel revenue grew by 16% YoY, and other revenue surged by 36% YoY, driven by advertising and hotel management [2][3]. - International business is anticipated to contribute 3%-4% of total revenue in 2Q24, with international air ticketing volume and hotel room nights increasing significantly [2][3]. Future Outlook - The report projects continued strong momentum for TC, with expectations of robust growth in both domestic and international segments [2][3]. - The full-year financial forecasts for FY24-26 remain unchanged, with a DCF-based target price of HK$26.1, reflecting a P/E ratio of 21x for FY24E [2][3].

Group 1: Ctrip (TCOM US) - Ctrip's 1Q24 net revenue reached RMB 11.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, exceeding expectations by 3%[8] - Non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 3.8 billion, better than the forecast of RMB 3.2 billion, driven by scale effects and lower market expenses[8] - Target price raised to $65.8 based on DCF, reflecting strong international expansion potential and a 24/25 non-GAAP PE of 24/20 times[8] Group 2: Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) - Xpeng's 1Q24 total revenue was 4% higher than previous forecasts, primarily due to better-than-expected average selling prices[2] - Comprehensive gross margin was 12.9%, exceeding expectations by 1.8 percentage points, while vehicle gross margin was only 5.5%, below expectations due to impairment provisions related to the P5 model[2] - Net loss for 1Q24 was RMB 1.4 billion, narrowing by approximately RMB 200 million compared to previous forecasts[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance industry, particularly recommending China Life and China Pacific Insurance for their strong premium growth and effective transformation strategies [1][2]. Core Insights - The insurance sector in China is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in premium income for leading life insurance companies, indicating resilience despite previous declines [1]. - The property insurance sector is experiencing slower growth, primarily due to a decline in non-auto insurance premiums, which has affected the overall performance of major players [2]. - The report highlights the successful transformation efforts of leading insurers, particularly in enhancing their distribution channels and product offerings, which have contributed to improved premium growth [1][2]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In the first four months of the year, the total premium income for six listed life insurance companies increased by 0.4% year-on-year to 854.1 billion yuan, marking a recovery from three consecutive months of negative growth [1]. - China Life and China Pacific Insurance reported double-digit growth rates of 11.6% and 12.3% respectively, significantly improving from March's growth rates [1]. - New business value (NBV) is expected to rise due to ongoing transformation efforts, with a focus on diversified product strategies [1]. Property Insurance - The property insurance sector's premium income growth slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.0% in April, down from March's figures [2]. - Major players like China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance reported modest growth rates, while China Property & Casualty Insurance experienced a decline in non-auto premiums [2]. - The report emphasizes the long-term investment potential of China Property & Casualty Insurance due to its market leadership and robust dividend yield [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Li Auto Inc. with a target price reduced from US$48.00 to US$26.00, reflecting a 19.8% upside from the current price of US$21.71 [2][3]. Core Insights - Li Auto has deprioritized FY24E profitability in favor of establishing a stronger foundation for its BEV strategy, following disappointing sales from the Mega model. The company is expected to recover EREV sales in 2H24 and achieve sales growth in FY25, despite postponing BEV launches [2][3]. - The 1Q24 results showed a revenue increase of approximately 3% compared to previous forecasts, primarily driven by other sales and services, while net profit fell short by about RMB1.4 billion due to higher R&D and SG&A expenses [2][3]. - The company anticipates a challenging 2Q24, guiding for a vehicle gross margin of 18%, down from 19.3% in 1Q24, and has adjusted FY24E sales volume down by 22% to 0.51 million units [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB149.24 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. For FY25E, revenue is expected to reach RMB193.27 billion, reflecting a growth of 29.5% [3][8]. - The net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB7.23 billion, a decrease of 38.2% compared to FY23, while FY25E net profit is projected at RMB12.27 billion, indicating a recovery with a growth of 69.7% [3][8]. - Gross margin is expected to be 20.1% in FY24E and slightly improve to 20.3% in FY25E, maintaining stability in profitability metrics [3][8]. Earnings Revision - The report revises FY24E revenue down by 26.1% to RMB149.24 billion and FY25E revenue down by 26.5% to RMB193.27 billion, reflecting adjustments based on recent performance and market conditions [7][9]. - Net profit estimates for FY24E have been halved to RMB7.23 billion, while FY25E net profit is revised to RMB12.27 billion, both reflecting a cautious outlook amid operational challenges [7][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 21.7x for FY24E, decreasing to 12.9x for FY25E, suggesting a more favorable valuation as the company aims for recovery [3][8]. - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 2.3x in FY24E to 1.9x in FY25E, indicating a potential undervaluation as the company stabilizes its operations [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto Inc. with a target price reduced from $48.00 to $26.00, based on a revised FY25 earnings per share estimate of 15 times [2][3]. Core Insights - Li Auto has lowered its FY24 earnings capability priority, focusing on a new BEV strategy and anticipating a sales recovery for EREV in the second half of 2024, while BEV sales growth has been postponed to FY25 [2]. - The company reported a 3% increase in 1Q24 revenue compared to previous forecasts, primarily due to other sales and services, while R&D and SG&A expenses exceeded expectations by 1.6 billion RMB, leading to a net profit that was 1.4 billion RMB lower than anticipated [2]. - The management expects challenges in 2Q24, guiding vehicle gross margin down to 18% from 19.3% in 1Q24, with R&D and SG&A expenses projected to be more difficult to predict due to recent organizational restructuring [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue was 45,287 million RMB, with a year-over-year growth rate of 67.7% [3]. - Gross margin for FY24E is adjusted to 20.1%, down by 0.8 percentage points, with net profit estimates halved to 7.2 billion RMB [2][3]. - The company expects FY25E sales volume to reach 660,000 units with a net profit of 12.3 billion RMB, similar to previous FY24E forecasts [2]. Valuation and Risks - The target price adjustment reflects a higher valuation multiple for FY25 due to anticipated successful BEV products, despite increased uncertainty and lower profit growth trajectory [2]. - Key risks to the rating and target price include lower-than-expected sales and/or gross margins, as well as potential downgrades in industry ratings [2].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a target price of US$8.60, representing a 48.5% upside from the current price of US$5.79 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong margin surprise in 1Q24, with adjusted net profit at RMB844 million, which is 91% above consensus expectations, and revenue 1% above consensus [3][10]. - For 2Q24, revenue is expected to decline by 1% year-over-year, with subscription revenue down 5% and advertising revenue up 7%, supported by a rich content pipeline [3][20]. - The management is optimistic about achieving a full-year operating profit target of RMB5 billion for FY24, backed by improved operational efficiency and a robust advertising strategy [3][20]. Financial Performance - 1Q24 revenue was RMB7,927 million, down 5% year-over-year, but 1% above consensus estimates [10][11]. - Adjusted operating profit margin reached 14%, exceeding estimates by 3 percentage points due to enhanced content strategy and operational efficiency [3][10]. - Operating cash flow for 1Q24 was RMB937.8 million, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [3][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Membership services revenue declined by 13.5% year-over-year in 1Q24, while online advertising revenue grew by 5.6% year-over-year, driven by performance-based ads [11][12]. - The company anticipates continued growth in advertising revenue, particularly from sectors like food & beverage and telecommunications, as traditional spending recovers in 2Q24 [3][20]. Future Outlook - The company has a strong content pipeline with anticipated releases such as "Fox Spirit Matchmaker" and "Lost in the Shadows," which are expected to drive subscriber engagement and revenue growth [3][20]. - Long-term forecasts for FY24-26 earnings remain unchanged, with expectations of continued margin improvement and operational efficiency [3][20]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB34,663 million in FY24, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB3,714 million [20][18]. - The P/E ratio is projected to decline from 11.0x in FY24 to 9.1x in FY26, indicating potential for value appreciation [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Mobvista Inc. with a target price of HK$6.00, indicating a potential upside of 92.9% from the current price of HK$3.11 [2][4]. Core Insights - Mobvista reported strong 1Q24 results with revenue and adjusted net profit increasing by 23% and 97% year-over-year, respectively. The non-gaming business revenue contribution rose to 29% in 1Q24 from 19.5% in 1Q23 [2]. - The upgraded smart bidding system has significantly improved revenue growth, particularly in the Mintegral platform, which saw a revenue increase of 25.4% year-over-year in 1Q24 [2]. - A settlement agreement regarding Reyun transactions has eased previous overhangs, allowing investors to focus on Mobvista's organic growth and profitability improvements [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - Mobvista's revenue for 1Q24 was US$301.5 million, reflecting a 23% increase year-over-year. The adjusted net profit surged to US$8.9 million, a 97% increase compared to the previous year [2][8]. - The gross profit margin reached 20.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-over-year, driven by higher advertising efficiency and controlled costs in the mar-tech business [2][8]. Revenue Breakdown - The adtech/mar-tech segment reported revenue growth of 23% and 19% year-over-year, with programmatic advertising growing by 25% [2][9]. - Non-gaming revenue share increased significantly, with e-commerce and social media being key growth drivers [2][10]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts revenue growth of 20% year-over-year for FY24E, with adjusted net profit expected to grow by 91% [2][11]. - The financial outlook for FY24E includes projected revenue of US$1.265 billion and adjusted net profit of US$37 million [13][15]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a 20x FY24E P/E to the ad-tech business and a 3.0x FY24E P/S to the mar-tech business, leading to a total equity value of HK$6.00 per share [12][2].