Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows mixed trends. New home sales ended a four - week increase and declined, while second - hand home sales stabilized. The year - on - year decline in sales volume is gradually narrowing, indicating a market in the process of bottom - grinding [1][2]. - Policy focus is shifting from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Situation - **New Homes**: 38 - city new home sales volume was 2.64 million square meters this week (Dec 5 - 11), a 9% week - on - week decline after four consecutive weeks of growth. The absolute scale is still within the recent range, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase after a pulse - like recovery [1]. - **Second - hand Homes**: 15 - city second - hand home sales volume stabilized at 2.14 million square meters this week, with a basically flat week - on - week change. The four - week sales volume is stable, showing stronger resilience than new homes [1]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 33% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 3 percentage points. 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline also narrowing by 3 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Monthly Situation - **New Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 29% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 6 percentage points compared to November, showing marginal improvement [2]. - **Second - hand Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 14 percentage points compared to October and November, facing significant short - term correction pressure [2]. 3.3 Performance in First - tier Cities - **New Homes**: After two consecutive weeks of growth, first - tier city new home sales volume decreased by 6% week - on - week. There is significant inter - city differentiation. Beijing showed strong recovery momentum, while Shanghai decreased, Shenzhen rebounded from the bottom, and Guangzhou continued to weaken [3]. - **Second - hand Homes**: The combined second - hand home sales volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 4% week - on - week, mainly driven by a 20% rebound in Shenzhen. Currently, sales volumes in these three cities are stable at 73 - 79% of the annual high, significantly stronger than the new home market [3]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: Affected by the high base last year, new home sales volume decreased by 37% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 3 percentage points. Only Shanghai had a 13% year - on - year increase. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 31% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [4]. 3.4 Performance in Second and Third - tier Cities - **Second - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 9% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline narrowed by 11 percentage points to - 26%, showing signs of bottom - up recovery. Second - hand home sales were relatively stable, with a basically flat week - on - week change [5]. - **Third - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 13% week - on - week after three consecutive weeks of recovery, and the year - on - year decline widened to 42%. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 10% week - on - week but remained at 83% of the annual high [6]. 3.5 Housing Price Observation - **Overall**: From Dec 1 - 7, the decline in second - hand housing listing prices in all tiers of cities widened, with a week - on - week decline of 0.55% - 0.58%. Second - tier cities had a larger year - on - year price adjustment, with a decline of 8.61% [7]. - **First - tier Cities**: Shenzhen's listing prices rebounded for two consecutive weeks, showing signs of bottom - stabilization. The other three cities saw an expanded decline. Guangzhou had the deepest year - on - year decline at 16.62% [7]. - **Second - tier Cities**: Chengdu and Fuzhou had a slight week - on - week increase, while Xi'an had high price volatility and was still in the process of finding a bottom [7]. 3.6 Policy Observation - The central economic work conference's tone on real estate has shifted from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8].

Group 1: Overnight Rates and Liquidity - The overnight rate DR001 has reached a new low of 1.27%, breaking the previous year's lower limit of 1.30%[1] - The average overnight rate R001 decreased from 1.37% to 1.35% during the week of December 8-12[1] - The liquidity in the market remains stable, with a net withdrawal of 0.8 trillion yuan in the open market for December[20] Group 2: Tax Period and Market Outlook - The upcoming tax period (December 15-17) is expected to cause some liquidity fluctuations, but the average tax payment over the past three years is around 1.32 trillion yuan, indicating manageable pressure[2] - The central bank plans to conduct a net injection of 200 billion yuan through a 6-month reverse repurchase agreement on December 15, which may alleviate some liquidity pressure[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - From December 15-19, a total of 7.485 trillion yuan will mature in the open market, with 6.685 trillion yuan from reverse repos, which is relatively low compared to the median of 10.21 trillion yuan for 2025[3] - The government bond net payment is projected to be -839 billion yuan for the same period, primarily due to the deferral of 1.96 trillion yuan in bonds to the following week[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.65%, an increase of 1.3 basis points from the previous week[6] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 940.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of -120.5 billion yuan during December 8-12[6]

Global Market Overview - The US tech stocks experienced a significant pullback this week, with increased volatility across global markets due to concerns over an AI bubble and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [1][11] - The TAMAMA technology index has a current P/E ratio of 36.98, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has risen to 45.72, and the Nasdaq index remains at 42.01, indicating elevated valuations in US tech stocks [1][11] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio stands at 40.22, close to historical highs, suggesting potential for further pullback in US tech stocks [1][11] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.63% and 1.62% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.05% this week [2][11] - Within the S&P 500, the materials sector saw the largest gain of 2.44%, while the communications services sector experienced the largest decline of 3.2% [11] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all declined, with respective drops of 0.42%, 1.29%, and 2.58% [22][30] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.43%, indicating a mixed performance within the tech sector [22][35] Emerging Markets Performance - The Brazilian IBOVESPA index increased by 2.16%, while the Vietnamese VNINDEX fell by 5.42%, highlighting mixed performance across emerging markets [10][22] Key Economic Data - Japan's GDP growth rate for Q3 was -0.6%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%, indicating economic contraction [3][37] - The US Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose to 9.7%, up from 4%, suggesting improved investor sentiment [37][39]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.14, with a historical average of 25.72[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.04, while the CSI 300 Index stands at 13.16[9] - The growth of the A-share market is influenced by both earnings changes and valuation changes, with contributions to index fluctuations analyzed[12] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.93, with a historical maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.72, indicating a significant valuation compared to other sectors[62] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.04, with historical values ranging from a minimum of 11.21 to a maximum of 41.99[83] - The NASDAQ Index currently stands at a PE (TTM) of 42.03, reflecting a high valuation compared to historical averages[89] Sector-Specific Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels[23] - The technology sector, including computing and electronics, is experiencing high PE levels, indicating potential overvaluation[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, corporate earnings not meeting forecasts, and significant market volatility[103]

证券研究报告|策略点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 供需优化，提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议点评 事件：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对 经济工作的定调，部署 2026 年经济工作的八个大重点任务。 · "五个必须"，是目标也是手段。本次会议处于"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的交汇点，在 肯定过去成绩的同时，新形势下会议提出"五个必须"为新一年的经济工作定下基调，"必须充分 挖掘经济潜能"指向充分利用大国优势培育更多增长点、释放发展潜能；"必须坚持政策支持和改 革创新并举"对应政策要"短长结合"，确保实现稳中求进；"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得 好'"指向要统筹好活力与秩序的关系，充分激发市场活力；"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密 结合"是对投资理念和方向的优化，突出改善民生的社会效益；"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战"强调以内生的确定性应对外部的不确定。本次会议表现出更强的战略定力，强调当前经济发展 中的问题和挑战"大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决 ...

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% and a deficit scale of approximately 5.88 trillion yuan[4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[2] Fiscal Policy - The government plans to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, with an emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties[4] - New local government special bonds are projected to be around 4.4 trillion yuan, excluding a 2 trillion yuan debt replacement quota[4] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will be maintained, with expectations of a 20 basis points interest rate cut and a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio reduction in 2026[6] - The growth rates for social financing and M2 are anticipated to be approximately 8% and 7.5%, respectively, with M1 growth expected to exceed the compound growth rate of the past two years[6] Domestic Demand - The focus will be on domestic demand, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer capacity and increasing the supply of quality goods and services[7] - Investment strategies will include stabilizing investment levels and optimizing the management of local government special bonds[7] Innovation and Reform - Emphasis on innovation-driven growth, with plans to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and improve the protection of intellectual property rights in emerging fields[8] - The conference called for deepening reforms to eliminate "involutionary" competition and promote win-win development among platform enterprises[8] Real Estate Market - The strategy for the real estate market will prioritize stability, with measures to control supply, reduce inventory, and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[9] - The government aims to reform the housing provident fund system and promote the construction of quality housing[9] Risk Management - Continuous efforts will be made to manage and mitigate risks in key areas, including local government debt and the real estate sector, to prevent systemic risks[10] - The importance of maintaining social stability and economic growth while addressing potential external challenges was emphasized[10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5-3.75% on December 11, 2025, aligning with market expectations[1] - The dot plot indicates only one rate cut of 25 basis points is expected in 2026, with a high degree of dispersion remaining[2] - The Fed will begin purchasing Treasury bills at a rate of $40 billion per month starting December 12, 2025, to ensure ample reserves in the financial system[2] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed raised its growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.7%, 2.3%, and 2.0%, respectively, an increase of 0.1, 0.5, and 0.1 percentage points from the September meeting[3] - Inflation forecasts were lowered, with PCE expected at 2.9% and 2.4% for 2025 and 2026, down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively[3] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.2% in 2027[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the 2-year Treasury yield fell approximately 3 basis points to 3.56%, while the S&P and Nasdaq indices rose by about 0.4%[5] - Gold prices increased by 0.5% to over $4200 per ounce, reflecting market optimism regarding liquidity and reduced hawkish concerns[5] - The dollar index weakened by about 0.3% to around 98.7, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards liquidity easing[5] Group 4: Future Considerations - Powell indicated that the Fed's actions are primarily preventive against potential labor market weaknesses, with no immediate decisions made for the January meeting[4] - The Fed's independence may be challenged in 2026, potentially leading to lower policy rates and higher inflation risks, which could favor equities and precious metals while negatively impacting long-term Treasury rates[6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third consecutive rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.50% to 3.75%[1] - Starting December 12, the Fed will initiate a monthly purchase plan of approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds to maintain liquidity in the banking system[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.4% as of September, higher than market expectations, despite non-farm payrolls adding 119,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 50,000[2] - GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 have been revised upward to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8%[4] - PCE inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to 2.9% and 2.4%, down from 3.0% and 2.6% respectively, while core PCE inflation expectations remain stable[4] Group 3: Future Projections - The median interest rate forecast remains unchanged for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1%, and 3.1% respectively[5] - The dot plot indicates a consensus for a potential additional 25 basis point cut next year, with some members predicting a more aggressive reduction[8] Group 4: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, S&P 500 up 0.67%, and Nasdaq up 0.33% following the Fed's announcement[10] - Gold prices increased by 0.52% to $4,258.30 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.60% to 98.64[10]

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI year-on-year increased by 0.7%, matching expectations, and up from 0.2% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained at 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[1] - PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2%, slightly worse than the expected -2.0%, and unchanged from the previous month[1] Key Drivers of CPI Changes - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly above the seasonal average of -0.5%, primarily driven by a 7.2% increase in fresh vegetable prices due to supply shocks[2] - Non-food items showed resilience, with clothing prices up 0.7% and medical services prices increasing by 0.3% for eight consecutive months[2] - Service prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, negatively impacting core CPI, particularly due to a 5.7% drop in tourism-related prices[2] PPI Insights - PPI has shown a month-on-month increase of 0.1% for two consecutive months, indicating stabilization in industrial product prices[3] - The mining sector saw a significant month-on-month increase of 1.7%, while the raw materials sector experienced a decline of 0.2%[3] - Manufacturing prices in high-weight sectors like photovoltaic equipment and lithium-ion batteries showed reduced year-on-year declines, supporting PPI stability[4] Future Outlook - December inflation readings are expected to remain stable, with CPI likely holding at 0.7% year-on-year if month-on-month changes align with seasonal trends[7] - PPI year-on-year may narrow to -2.0% if the recovery trend continues[7] - The necessity for monetary policy adjustments may increase due to inflation trends and PMI remaining below the growth threshold[7]