证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 跨年行情如何逢低布局？三条配置主线值得重视 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周全球股指分化，美股科技股大跌，甲骨文、博通股价大幅回撤加剧投资者对 AI 泡沫的担忧，本 周五美国科技七姐妹指数、费城半导体指数分别下跌 1.1%和 5.1%。A 股市场风格分化，成长风格整体走强。主要 宽基指数中，北证 50、创业板指和科创 50 指领涨；微盘股指、红利指数和上证 50 指数领跌。一级行业方面，通 信、军工、电子、机械设备领涨；煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产领跌。大宗商品方面，本周白银价格继续加速 上涨，国内黑色系商品进一步走弱。外汇方面，美元指数下行，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率升破 7.06。 ·市场展望：跨年行情逢低布局，国内两大重要会议指引市场主线。近期海外美联储议息会议和国内政治局会 议、中央经济工作会议相继落地，且整体基调符合市场预期，权益市场风险偏好获得支撑。时隔一个月，A 股日成 交额再度回到 2 万亿元上方，换手率边际抬升，显示市 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The successful launches of the Li Jian No.1 and Long March 12 rockets validate China's heavy-lift capabilities in commercial space [1][14] - Li Jian No.1 achieved a "one rocket, nine satellites" launch, marking its entry into large-scale operations with a payload capacity of 1.5 tons to a 500 km sun-synchronous orbit, outperforming similar Indian rockets by over four times [1][15] - Long March 12, China's strongest single-core rocket, demonstrated its capability to launch large satellite constellations with a near-Earth orbit capacity of at least 12 tons [1][16] Summary by Sections Section 1: Li Jian No.1 and Long March 12 Launches - Li Jian No.1 successfully launched nine satellites, including three for international clients, establishing a strong market presence in the commercial launch sector [14][25] - The rocket's innovative avionics system enhances reliability and supports remote one-click launches, transitioning from custom to generalized systems [25][33] - Long March 12's successful mission included launching 16 low-Earth orbit satellites, showcasing its adaptability and efficiency with a record short turnaround time [16][34] Section 2: Global Commercial Space Development - SpaceX is redefining launch capacity standards with its Starship system, achieving near-Earth orbit capacity of 150 tons and a single-use capacity of 250 tons [3][20] - The commercial space market is projected to exceed $500 billion by 2025, driven by low-cost reusable rockets and satellite constellations [20][54] - The emergence of differentiated technologies, such as Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket, indicates a competitive landscape where second-tier companies seek to carve out market niches [21][22] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks include aerospace companies like Aerospace Power, Superjet, and West Materials, as well as space computing firms like Shunhao and Putian Technology [7][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the demand for credit bonds may slow down. The incremental funds on the demand - side may slow, and the supply of industrial bonds is expected to continue to increase, while the credit bond market still faces a "yield shortage" [1][2]. - In 2026, credit spreads may show characteristics of low - level and high - volatility. There are structural opportunities in industrial bonds, including opportunities driven by the opening of amortized debt funds, trading opportunities for ultra - long bonds, exploration of perpetual bond spreads, and opportunities for sci - tech bond component bonds [3][5]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Industrial Bond Supply and Performance - Driven by the new regulations on sci - tech bonds, the supply of industrial bonds increased in 2025, with central enterprises as the main force. From January to November 2025, industrial bond issuance was 7.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 798.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 478 billion yuan. Among them, sci - tech industrial bond issuance was 1.51 trillion yuan, and net financing accounted for 54% of industrial bond net financing [12]. - The credit spreads of industrial bonds in 2025 experienced a process of widening, narrowing, and low - level oscillation. The performance of long - duration varieties was weaker than that of medium - and short - duration varieties, and there were differences among industries [26]. 3.2 2026 Credit Bond Demand 3.2.1 Demand - side: Incremental Funds Slow Down - Although the decline in deposit rates may continue to drive the migration of residents' assets to wealth management products, the proportion of wealth management products allocating credit bonds may be difficult to increase due to the completion of the rectification of net - value smoothing means and the low - spread environment. In Q2 2025, the proportion of wealth management products allocating credit bonds was 38.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared with Q4 2024 [1][36]. - The new regulations on fund sales fees may cause redemption pressure on bond funds, especially short - term and medium - short - term bond funds. Assuming different redemption ratios, the scale of bonds involved is about 1.04 - 2.07 trillion yuan, including about 330.9 - 661.8 billion yuan of credit bonds [1][42]. - In 2026, amortized debt funds will be concentratedly opened, with an expected scale of over 600 billion yuan. If some products switch to a credit style, it may boost the demand for credit bonds with specific maturities [2][50]. - Credit bond ETFs are not affected by the new regulations and are expected to attract some incremental funds, but the increase may be less than that in 2025. In 2025, the scale of credit bond ETFs increased significantly, but in 2026, the market may not see a large - scale new issuance [52][53]. 3.2.2 Supply - side: Industrial Bond Supply Continues to Increase, and the "Yield Shortage" Remains In 2026, due to the low bond - issuing interest rate and the "green channel" for sci - tech bond issuance, the supply of industrial bonds is expected to continue to increase, while the issuance policy for urban investment bonds remains strict, and new financing is restricted. The credit bond market still faces a "yield shortage" [2]. 3.3 Structural Opportunities for Industrial Bonds under Low Spreads - **Opportunities Driven by the Opening of Amortized Debt Funds**: In 2026, the opening of amortized debt funds with a 5 - year - around closed - end period may drive the allocation demand for medium - and high - rated industrial bonds with a 5 - year - around maturity. 30 industrial entities with cost - effective 4 - 5 - year bonds are recommended [5][62]. - **Duration Strategy: Grasp the Trading Rhythm**: When the 10 - year Treasury bond has a downward trend, or when the long - end interest rate fluctuates with limited upward space, and the long - duration credit spreads break through or approach the mean + 2 times the standard deviation, and at the same time, the net purchase scale of credit bonds is relatively high, the net purchase scale of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds by funds rebounds, and the number of transactions and the proportion of credit bonds with a maturity of over 5 years increase, it is a relatively good time to trade ultra - long credit bonds. When the long - duration credit spreads narrow significantly and the trading activity of long - duration credit bonds is extremely high, it is necessary to be vigilant about the market reversal and grasp the profit - taking opportunity. 39 industrial entities with relatively active ultra - long bond transactions are selected [65][78][79]. - **Exploration of Industrial Bond Perpetual Variety Spreads**: As of December 5, 2025, the outstanding scale of public perpetual bonds of industrial entities was 2.56 trillion yuan. The spread of 3 - year perpetual industrial bonds is currently at a relatively cost - effective level. According to historical and seasonal rules, the first quarter may be a good time to allocate perpetual bonds, and profit - taking can be considered when the spread narrows to a low level and the buying power of credit bonds weakens. 44 industrial entities with cost - effective 2 - 3 - year perpetual bonds are listed [88][93]. - **Opportunities for the Liquidity Spread of Sci - tech Bond Component Bonds**: In 2026, sci - tech bonds are still in an expansion cycle. Investors should pay close attention to the changes in the net value and scale of sci - tech bond ETFs and the trading activity of sci - tech bond component bonds. They can also judge the cost - effectiveness based on the spread between non - component bonds and component bonds of the same entity with the same remaining maturity. For "quasi - component bonds" in primary issuance, if the coupon rate of new bonds is higher than the valuation of component bonds, investors can participate in primary subscriptions to obtain price - difference benefits [95][97].

Market Overview - The Wande All A index closed at 6267.06 on December 12, 2025, up 0.26% from December 5, 2025, while the China Securities convertible bond index rose 0.20% during the same period[1] - Year-to-date, the Wande All A index has increased by 24.80%, and the China Securities convertible bond index has risen by 16.50%[9] Market Dynamics - The market is entering a new phase of recovery, with significant support levels established before the recent downturn, indicating a more optimistic outlook among investors[11] - Structural risks are emerging, with the concentration of trading volume among the top 5% of stocks reaching 44.42%, close to the historical high of 45%[15] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests a continued upward trend in the market, with sector rotation likely to persist. Key sectors for rotation include new energy, dividends, and consumer goods[2] - New energy remains a preferred sector due to solid fundamentals, despite not recovering since the significant drop on November 21, 2025[37] Dividend and Consumer Sectors - The dividend sector has weakened since November 14, 2025, with the China Securities dividend index down 6.47%. Historical data suggests limited potential for further declines[39] - Consumer sectors are also lagging in recovery, with potential for a rebound as policies to stimulate consumption are anticipated in 2026[48] Convertible Bonds - Recent volatility in the Blue Sky convertible bond was triggered by the freezing of shares held by its controlling shareholder, leading to a price drop of 4.81%[51] - The impact of share freezes on the convertible bond market is expected to be limited, with overall market valuations remaining stable despite isolated credit shocks[61]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows mixed trends. New home sales ended a four - week increase and declined, while second - hand home sales stabilized. The year - on - year decline in sales volume is gradually narrowing, indicating a market in the process of bottom - grinding [1][2]. - Policy focus is shifting from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Situation - **New Homes**: 38 - city new home sales volume was 2.64 million square meters this week (Dec 5 - 11), a 9% week - on - week decline after four consecutive weeks of growth. The absolute scale is still within the recent range, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase after a pulse - like recovery [1]. - **Second - hand Homes**: 15 - city second - hand home sales volume stabilized at 2.14 million square meters this week, with a basically flat week - on - week change. The four - week sales volume is stable, showing stronger resilience than new homes [1]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 33% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 3 percentage points. 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline also narrowing by 3 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Monthly Situation - **New Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 29% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 6 percentage points compared to November, showing marginal improvement [2]. - **Second - hand Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 14 percentage points compared to October and November, facing significant short - term correction pressure [2]. 3.3 Performance in First - tier Cities - **New Homes**: After two consecutive weeks of growth, first - tier city new home sales volume decreased by 6% week - on - week. There is significant inter - city differentiation. Beijing showed strong recovery momentum, while Shanghai decreased, Shenzhen rebounded from the bottom, and Guangzhou continued to weaken [3]. - **Second - hand Homes**: The combined second - hand home sales volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 4% week - on - week, mainly driven by a 20% rebound in Shenzhen. Currently, sales volumes in these three cities are stable at 73 - 79% of the annual high, significantly stronger than the new home market [3]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: Affected by the high base last year, new home sales volume decreased by 37% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 3 percentage points. Only Shanghai had a 13% year - on - year increase. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 31% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [4]. 3.4 Performance in Second and Third - tier Cities - **Second - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 9% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline narrowed by 11 percentage points to - 26%, showing signs of bottom - up recovery. Second - hand home sales were relatively stable, with a basically flat week - on - week change [5]. - **Third - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 13% week - on - week after three consecutive weeks of recovery, and the year - on - year decline widened to 42%. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 10% week - on - week but remained at 83% of the annual high [6]. 3.5 Housing Price Observation - **Overall**: From Dec 1 - 7, the decline in second - hand housing listing prices in all tiers of cities widened, with a week - on - week decline of 0.55% - 0.58%. Second - tier cities had a larger year - on - year price adjustment, with a decline of 8.61% [7]. - **First - tier Cities**: Shenzhen's listing prices rebounded for two consecutive weeks, showing signs of bottom - stabilization. The other three cities saw an expanded decline. Guangzhou had the deepest year - on - year decline at 16.62% [7]. - **Second - tier Cities**: Chengdu and Fuzhou had a slight week - on - week increase, while Xi'an had high price volatility and was still in the process of finding a bottom [7]. 3.6 Policy Observation - The central economic work conference's tone on real estate has shifted from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8].

Group 1: Overnight Rates and Liquidity - The overnight rate DR001 has reached a new low of 1.27%, breaking the previous year's lower limit of 1.30%[1] - The average overnight rate R001 decreased from 1.37% to 1.35% during the week of December 8-12[1] - The liquidity in the market remains stable, with a net withdrawal of 0.8 trillion yuan in the open market for December[20] Group 2: Tax Period and Market Outlook - The upcoming tax period (December 15-17) is expected to cause some liquidity fluctuations, but the average tax payment over the past three years is around 1.32 trillion yuan, indicating manageable pressure[2] - The central bank plans to conduct a net injection of 200 billion yuan through a 6-month reverse repurchase agreement on December 15, which may alleviate some liquidity pressure[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - From December 15-19, a total of 7.485 trillion yuan will mature in the open market, with 6.685 trillion yuan from reverse repos, which is relatively low compared to the median of 10.21 trillion yuan for 2025[3] - The government bond net payment is projected to be -839 billion yuan for the same period, primarily due to the deferral of 1.96 trillion yuan in bonds to the following week[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.65%, an increase of 1.3 basis points from the previous week[6] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 940.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of -120.5 billion yuan during December 8-12[6]

Global Market Overview - The US tech stocks experienced a significant pullback this week, with increased volatility across global markets due to concerns over an AI bubble and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [1][11] - The TAMAMA technology index has a current P/E ratio of 36.98, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has risen to 45.72, and the Nasdaq index remains at 42.01, indicating elevated valuations in US tech stocks [1][11] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio stands at 40.22, close to historical highs, suggesting potential for further pullback in US tech stocks [1][11] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.63% and 1.62% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.05% this week [2][11] - Within the S&P 500, the materials sector saw the largest gain of 2.44%, while the communications services sector experienced the largest decline of 3.2% [11] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all declined, with respective drops of 0.42%, 1.29%, and 2.58% [22][30] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.43%, indicating a mixed performance within the tech sector [22][35] Emerging Markets Performance - The Brazilian IBOVESPA index increased by 2.16%, while the Vietnamese VNINDEX fell by 5.42%, highlighting mixed performance across emerging markets [10][22] Key Economic Data - Japan's GDP growth rate for Q3 was -0.6%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%, indicating economic contraction [3][37] - The US Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose to 9.7%, up from 4%, suggesting improved investor sentiment [37][39]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.14, with a historical average of 25.72[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.04, while the CSI 300 Index stands at 13.16[9] - The growth of the A-share market is influenced by both earnings changes and valuation changes, with contributions to index fluctuations analyzed[12] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.93, with a historical maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.72, indicating a significant valuation compared to other sectors[62] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.04, with historical values ranging from a minimum of 11.21 to a maximum of 41.99[83] - The NASDAQ Index currently stands at a PE (TTM) of 42.03, reflecting a high valuation compared to historical averages[89] Sector-Specific Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels[23] - The technology sector, including computing and electronics, is experiencing high PE levels, indicating potential overvaluation[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, corporate earnings not meeting forecasts, and significant market volatility[103]

证券研究报告|策略点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 供需优化，提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议点评 事件：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对 经济工作的定调，部署 2026 年经济工作的八个大重点任务。 · "五个必须"，是目标也是手段。本次会议处于"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的交汇点，在 肯定过去成绩的同时，新形势下会议提出"五个必须"为新一年的经济工作定下基调，"必须充分 挖掘经济潜能"指向充分利用大国优势培育更多增长点、释放发展潜能；"必须坚持政策支持和改 革创新并举"对应政策要"短长结合"，确保实现稳中求进；"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得 好'"指向要统筹好活力与秩序的关系，充分激发市场活力；"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密 结合"是对投资理念和方向的优化，突出改善民生的社会效益；"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战"强调以内生的确定性应对外部的不确定。本次会议表现出更强的战略定力，强调当前经济发展 中的问题和挑战"大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决 ...