证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 08 日 猪肉猪价震荡偏强，欧盟猪肉反倾销裁定落地 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 28 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：为确保秋冬种生产用种安全，近日，农业农村部 在全国范围内部署开展秋季农作物种子市场检查，聚焦小麦、 油菜、蔬菜等重点作物，加大对种子市场、经营门店等抽查力 度，严把种子质量关，切实规范种子市场秩序。同时，按照全 国种业监管执法年活动安排，深入推进马铃薯种薯和食用菌菌 种、网络售种、种子检验机构、牛冷冻精液等领域专项整治， 持续加大违法违规行为多发重点领域清理整治力度，全面净化 种业市场。农业农村部将派出 5 个工作组赴河南、湖南、江西 等重点用种地区进行督促指导，开展现场监管执法，依法严厉 查处严厉打击种子假冒伪劣、套牌侵权、无证生产经营等违法 违规行为，严防不合格种子入市，切实保障农业生产用种安 全，有力支撑粮油作物大面积单产提升。在粮食安全背景下， 转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我们判断转基因 商业化进程将继续扩面提速，以通过提升单产从根本上提升关 键品 ...

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 欧盟猪肉反倾销落地，重视生猪养殖板块 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 商务部公布对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品反倾销调查 的初步裁定。调查机关初步认定，原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及 猪副产品存在倾销，国内产业受到实质损害，而且倾销与实质损 害之间存在因果关系。根据《反倾销条例》第二十八条和第二十 九条的规定，调查机关决定采用保证金形式实施临时反倾销措 施。自 2025 年 9 月 10 日起，进口经营者在进口被调查产品时， 应依据本初裁决定所确定的各公司的保证金比率向中华人民共和 国海关提供相应的保证金。 分析与判断: 邮箱：zhousha@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120519110005 联系电话：0755-23947349 分析师：魏心欣 邮箱：weixx@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120524100002 联系电话： ► 过去 5 年，我国自欧盟进口猪肉产品占总进口量 比例为 50%左右 据海关总署数据，2024 年我国进口猪肉及副产品 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 25% year-on-year in H1 2025, with Q2 revenue reaching 608 million, also up 21% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [3] - The net profit for H1 2025 was 640 million, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin maintained at a high level of 59.53% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of laser cutting applications, particularly in the steel structure and shipbuilding industries, leading to continued revenue growth [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 1.103 billion, with Q2 contributing 608 million, reflecting a 25% and 21% year-on-year growth respectively [3] - Revenue from flat solutions was 677 million, while pipe solutions generated 237 million, both expected to continue their rapid growth [3] - The three-dimensional solutions segment achieved 34 million, nearing the total revenue of 37 million for the entire year of 2024, benefiting from increased penetration in heavy industries [3] Profitability - H1 2025 net profit was 640 million, with a year-on-year increase of 30%, and Q2 net profit was 385 million, up 29% [4] - The sales gross margin for H1 2025 was 78.83%, slightly down by 2.45 percentage points year-on-year, but Q2 saw a recovery with a gross margin of 79.71% [4] - The company maintained a high net profit margin, with a sales net profit margin of 59.53% [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth driven by overseas demand and recovery in the steel structure market, alongside the introduction of high-power and three-dimensional cutting solutions [3] - The potential market for intelligent welding control systems in China's steel structure industry is estimated at around 10.7 billion, indicating significant growth opportunities [5] - The company is also expanding its capabilities in precision processing and laser technology, further enhancing its competitive edge [5] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.275 billion, 2.955 billion, and 3.776 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 30%, and 28% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.141 billion, 1.474 billion, and 1.880 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 29% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.96, 5.11, and 6.52 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35, 27, and 21 times [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported strong resilience in Q2 performance, with AI and sewing intelligence opening up growth opportunities [2] - The company achieved revenue of 3.373 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with Q2 revenue at 1.580 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year [3] - The domestic sales were weak, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 30-35% in the sewing equipment market, while the company’s domestic revenue decreased by 11%, outperforming the industry benchmark [3] - The overseas market saw a 20% increase in industrial sewing machine exports, with the company’s overseas revenue rising by 23% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin is on a rapid upward trend, with a sales gross margin of 34.07% in H1 2025, up 2.26 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on high-end AI sewing machines and humanoid robots, with plans to launch its high-end AI sewing machine in the second half of 2025 [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 6.709 billion, 7.659 billion, and 9.041 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 972 million, 1.142 billion, and 1.392 billion yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 775 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.97%, and reported a net profit of 16.95 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 26.09%, an increase of 9.58 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sales expense ratio decreased by 4.11 percentage points to 4.03%, while the management expense ratio fell by 2.64 percentage points to 6.54% [3] - The company is investing in embodied intelligence technology, providing integrated solutions for cultural venues and new tourism projects, including personalized humanoid robots and AR-enhanced AI glasses [4] - The government has encouraged the creation of new consumption scenarios, supporting the company in developing a "cultural experience + digital consumption" ecosystem, which has already shown promising results in visitor numbers and revenue generation [5] - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 16.46 billion yuan, 18.84 billion yuan, and 20.56 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates revised to 1.19 billion yuan, 1.60 billion yuan, and 2.02 billion yuan [6][8]

Core Viewpoints - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is seen as a "bull market pullback," with the underlying trend of a slow bull market remaining intact [2][4] - The A-share market has experienced a significant rise over the past five months, leading to profit-taking among investors, which is a common occurrence after substantial gains [2][3] - The acceleration of the market in August, driven by concentrated capital in the computing power sector, has increased volatility, with a notable rise in financing activities [3][4] Summary by Sections Recent Market Adjustment - From September 2 to September 4, the A-share market saw considerable fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.83% and the Wind All A Index falling by 4.62%, while trading volume decreased to below 3 trillion yuan [1] - The major indices, including the Sci-Tech 50 Index and the ChiNext Index, led the declines, with only the banking index showing an increase [1] Reasons for Market Adjustment - The A-share market has been on an upward trend for five months, with a cumulative increase of 32.17% from April 8 to September 1, leading to profit-taking as investors sought to realize gains [2] - The market's rise in August was characterized by a concentration of funds in leading stocks from the Sci-Tech and ChiNext boards, resulting in a record net inflow of financing funds amounting to 274.4 billion yuan [3] Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current pullback is viewed as a short-term correction within a broader bull market, supported by strong policy backing and a stable influx of long-term capital from insurance and pension funds [4] - The report suggests that the "slow bull" market still has ample space and opportunities, with sectors aligned with national strategies, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, solid-state batteries, energy storage, and robotics, expected to benefit from valuation premiums [4]

Market Overview - On September 4, the stock market experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 dropping by 1.25% and 2.12% respectively[1] - The total trading volume for the day was 2.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 186.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day[2] Investor Sentiment - A heightened risk-averse sentiment was observed, leading to a significant outflow of 11 billion yuan from stock ETFs, indicating a shift towards safer investments[2] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF increased by 3.65%, reflecting a stronger emotional response to market declines[2] Sector Performance - The technology sector, which had previously seen concentrated investment, faced a sharp decline, with the top 1% of stocks accounting for 20% of total trading volume, indicating extreme market behavior[3] - Key sectors such as solid-state batteries and energy storage are attracting attention as potential high-growth themes amidst the downturn in technology stocks[3] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.12% and 1.85% respectively, with semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors leading the declines[4] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 700 million HKD, with notable investments in companies like UBTECH and Xiaomi, while others like Kuaishou and Tencent faced outflows[4] Bond Market Dynamics - Despite the stock market's decline, the bond market did not see a corresponding recovery, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 0.6bp and 1.5bp to 1.75% and 2.01% respectively[5] - The bond market's performance is hindered by banks' profit-taking behavior as the end of the quarter approaches, leading to a divergence in bond yields based on bank participation[6] Policy Implications - The central bank's recent actions, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo, were viewed as neutral by the market, suggesting that stronger monetary policy measures may be needed to shift the current bearish sentiment in the bond market[7] - The cautious sentiment in the domestic commodity market continues, with black commodities under pressure, while lithium carbonate and iron ore showed slight gains of 1.0% and 1.7% respectively[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.02 billion, an increase of over 1 billion compared to the same period last year [2] - The company is actively adjusting its strategy and product offerings to attract high-quality brands, resulting in a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase in Q2 2025 [3][4] - The company is focusing on high-end appliances and home decoration, with plans to establish a comprehensive design service network [6][7] Revenue Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.337 billion, a year-on-year decline of 21.01%, while Q2 revenue was 1.722 billion, down 18.53% year-on-year but up 6.57% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company operates 76 self-operated malls with an average occupancy rate of 84.2% and 235 managed malls with an average occupancy rate of 81.3% [3] - The company has implemented a "trade-in" policy, resulting in 743,000 orders and sales of 7.31 billion, with central subsidies amounting to 1.17 billion, accounting for approximately 16% of sales [3] Profitability Summary - In Q2 2025, the gross margin was 63.79%, an increase of 2.96 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -84.13%, a decline of 38.22 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The increase in gross margin is attributed to reduced costs in the construction and decoration services, while the decline in net margin is due to a drop in revenue and fixed costs [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to leverage its partnership with Jianfa Group to expand its market presence and integrate resources from real estate companies [4] - The company aims to establish 40 high-end appliance ecological benchmarks across the country and has already set up 50 automotive business locations covering 44 cities [6][7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 7.053 billion, 8.044 billion, and 8.584 billion respectively, with expected EPS of -0.11, 0.04, and 0.10 [8]

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent surge in long-term bond yields in the UK, Japan, and the US, with Japan's 30-year bond yield reaching 3.28%, the highest on record[1] - UK 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.75%, the highest since 1998[1] - US 30-year bond yield touched 5%, indicating a significant upward trend in long-term rates[1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Fed's interest rate cut expectations primarily affect short-term rates, while long-term rates are rising due to inflation concerns[1] - Market inflation expectations, as indicated by the 5Y5Y inflation forecast, have been on the rise since April, reflecting long-term inflation worries[1] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability in Japan and the UK are increasing, with Japan's inflation rate reaching 3.8% in July, the highest since January of the previous year[3] Group 3: Seasonal and Supply Dynamics - Historical data shows that long-term bonds typically perform poorly in September, with a median decline of 2% over the past decade[4] - High issuance of corporate bonds, exceeding $90 billion recently, is contributing to supply-demand mismatches in the market[4] Group 4: Investment Implications - Higher long-term bond yields may attract investment as they offer better relative value compared to equities[5] - Concerns about the independence of the Fed and the "stagflation" environment in developed economies are putting downward pressure on bonds and currencies, favoring gold as a more stable investment[6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [37]. Core Insights - The company, Tongyu New Materials, is recognized as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" with leading core technology in the industry. Its main business revenue primarily comes from MDI modified epoxy resin, with projected revenues of 1.193 billion CNY, 886 million CNY, and 952 million CNY for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 25.95%, -25.70%, and 7.47% [1][26]. - The global PCB market is expected to reach nearly 100 billion USD by 2026, with China's rigid copper-clad laminate output increasing from 6.1 billion USD in 2014 to 13.9 billion USD in 2021, capturing 73.9% of the global market share [2][11]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in multiple core technologies, holding 19 authorized invention patents, and has successfully broken foreign monopolies in key technologies such as DOPO modified epoxy resin [2][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic resin industry is crucial for producing copper-clad laminates, semiconductors, and printed circuit board inks, with the global rigid copper-clad laminate market experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic conditions [10][11]. - China's electronic resin production has significant room for growth, particularly in high-performance specialty resins that meet environmental standards [14][19]. Company Profile - Tongyu New Materials focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of electronic resins, positioning itself as a leading supplier in the domestic high-end copper-clad laminate market. The company has developed a mature product system suitable for lead-free and halogen-free applications [20][25]. - The company’s revenue sources are diversified across five major product categories, with MDI modified epoxy resin consistently being the core revenue driver, accounting for over 30% of total revenue [26][29]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 1.193 billion CNY in 2022, with a net profit of 188 million CNY, and forecasts a decline in net profit to 144 million CNY in 2024 [26][30]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 517 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.98%, while net profit decreased by 11.81% [26][30]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong market presence and technical capabilities, being recognized as a major supplier in the domestic high-end electronic resin market, with products integrated into the supply chains of leading companies like Kingboard Group and Unimicron Technology [3][29]. - The company operates automated production lines, ensuring stable production quality and rapid delivery, while also focusing on environmental compliance and sustainable development [30].