Policy Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," balancing growth stabilization and risk prevention for the medium to long term[2] - The central economic work conference provided detailed explanations of the political bureau's statements, confirming or refuting various market expectations[2] Interest Rate Dynamics - Long-term interest rates experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.84% and the 30-year bond yield slightly decreasing to 2.25% during the week of December 8-12[11] - Market concerns regarding monetary policy for 2026 include whether there will be increased monetary easing and the extent of fiscal stimulus[3][4] Fiscal Policy Projections - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain around 4.0%, with new special bond issuance potentially increasing to approximately 5 trillion yuan and long-term special government bonds expanding to about 1.8 trillion yuan[4][24] - The projected increase in narrow deficit scale, special government bonds, and local special bond quotas for 2026 compared to 2025 is approximately 2.8 billion, 5 billion, and 6 billion yuan respectively, with a total increase in the range of 1.3 to 1.4 trillion yuan[4][24] Market Outlook - The combination of loose monetary policy and stable fiscal policy is expected to support the bond market in 2026[4][24] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently at 1.84%, close to the effective upper limit of 1.90%, indicating limited potential for adjustment in the bond market[6][30] Investment Strategies - For long-term investors, the focus should be on medium to long-term returns, as current yields may meet next year's return targets, suggesting gradual entry into the market[6][30] - For short-term traders, maintaining discipline and waiting for clearer signals before adjusting positions is recommended, with potential for small-scale contrarian operations during market adjustments[6][30] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts pose risks to market stability[7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Huatu, aiming to enhance overall competitiveness and explore collaboration in examination training business [2] - The partnership includes investment cooperation, governance, AI technology collaboration, distribution channel cooperation, and a commitment to reducing unhealthy competition in the industry [2] - The strategic collaboration is expected to boost market confidence and improve the competitive landscape in the examination training industry, which has been experiencing a price war for over three years [4] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a revenue increase in 2025, with 3.416 million people passing the qualification review, a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.061 billion, 3.192 billion, and 3.428 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 277.1 million, 401.48 million, and 560.2 million yuan [5][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.12, 0.18, and 0.25 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 13, and 9 [5][8] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is reported at 3.021 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [7] - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is 188.57 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 109.03% [7] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 51.96% in 2023 to 54.00% by 2027 [8]

证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 本周伴随美联储降息与 H200 解禁，短期宏观及政策对 AI 影响 减弱，伴随博通、甲骨文业绩披露，美股对 AI 算力估值存在 分歧。当前时点，面临全球地缘政治冲突、中美科技博弈、海 外对 AI 投资的疑问，预计市场仍将保持震荡，板块建议相对 谨慎，中性配置。中长期仍坚定看好 AI 国产算力及光模块等 相关设备商、6G 产业趋势、国产替代、自主可控以及军工等 产业趋势及行业成长，从而催化包括国产算力、光网升级、算 力租赁、卫星通信、通信军工以及 6G 等市场机会。 [Table_Title] 星网批量化组网加速，看好 AI+卫星长线成长 [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、星网批量化组网加速 北京时间 12 月 9 日和 12 月 12 日，卫星互联网低轨 15 组和 16 组卫星分别成功发射，自 2024 年 12 月 01 组卫星发射以来，截 止到目前在轨卫星数达到 127 颗。卫星发射频次显著加快。 我们认为，星网星座连续发射标志批量化组网进入高效阶段，伴 随国内星座加速发射， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the urban investment bond market entered a low - volatility and long - short differentiation era with record - low net financing and issuance rates, and the shortest historical volatility and widening term spreads [1][47] - As 2027 June approaches, 2026 may be the starting point for urban investment bonds to return to differentiation. Although short - term risks are controllable, long - term transformation is inevitable [2][3] - In 2026, short - duration sinking strategies are still applicable, while long - duration band trading is difficult to grasp [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025, Low - Volatility and Long - Short Differentiation in the Stock Era 3.1.1 Net Financing and Issuance Rates Hit Record Lows - In 2025, new debt - resolution policies decreased, focusing on exiting key provinces and platforms, and "resolving existing debts and curbing new ones." The bond - issuance policy tightened, and the net financing of urban investment bonds reached a record low. From January to November, it was only 4 billion yuan, and there was a possibility of turning negative [11][17] - Low - level and medium - low - grade entities had large net repayment volumes. AA and below low - grade bonds and AA+ bonds had negative net financing, and district - county and park - level bonds also had negative net financing [21] - Most provinces saw a decline in net financing. Jiangsu had a net repayment of over 100 billion yuan, while Guangdong had a net financing of 8.77 billion yuan [22][23] - The issuance rate of urban investment bonds fluctuated downward, reaching a historical low in July. Except for Guizhou, the average issuance rate of other provinces was between 2% - 2.8%, and most provinces' rates decreased compared to the beginning of the year [27][31] 3.1.2 The Smallest Volatility in History and Widening Term Spreads - In the secondary market, the yield of urban investment bonds fluctuated in an "M" shape, and the credit spread narrowed. Taking the 3 - year AA+ implicit - rating urban investment bond as an example, the yield increased slightly by 14bp, and the credit spread narrowed from 47bp to 25bp [34] - 2025 was the year with the lowest static yield and the narrowest volatility for urban investment bonds. The mid - value of the 3 - year AA+ implicit - rating bond yield decreased by about 40bp, and the volatility range was only 29bp [37] - The short - and medium - term volatility narrowed significantly. The volatility range of the 3 - year AA variety narrowed from 72bp to 23bp [41] - The term spread of urban investment bonds widened. By the end of February, the term spreads were at historical lows, but then widened from February to October [42] 3.2 Approaching June 2027, 2026 May Be the Starting Point for Urban Investment to Return to Differentiation - In 2026, most urban investment bond investments will have maturities after June 2027. The scale of bonds maturing or exercisable after June 2027 has exceeded half of the total, and by the end of 2026, over 80% of bonds are expected to mature after June 2027 [48] - The speed of urban investment platforms exiting the list has accelerated since the second half of 2025, and the number of issuers declaring themselves as market - oriented business entities has increased significantly [49] - Whether the market's preference for urban investment bonds will change depends on local governments' willingness and ability to repay debts. Currently, the connection between urban investment and local governments remains close, and the tail - end regional risks have been mitigated to some extent. The market has not over - priced the issuers exiting the list [2][54][59] - In the long run, as traditional public - welfare businesses saturate, urban investment transformation is inevitable. The pricing of credit spreads may become more market - oriented, and 2026 may be the starting point for the return of differentiation, which is a long - term and gradual process [3][64][70] 3.3 In 2026, Short - Duration Sinking Is Still Applicable, and Band Trading May Be Difficult to Grasp - Urban investment bonds were the best - performing assets in the bond market in 2025. Short - duration sinking can still provide good returns with significantly reduced volatility. For example, the 90 - day moving average annualized return of 1 - year AA - implicit - rating urban investment bonds was 2.6%, and the volatility decreased to 0.67% [4][75][78] - It is recommended to focus on 1 - 3 - year AA(2) and 2 - 3 - year AA urban investment bonds, which have an average yield of over 2%, a large balance of outstanding bonds (3.1 trillion yuan in total), and good liquidity. The monthly transaction volume accounts for 4% - 10% [81] - Band trading of long - duration urban investment bonds in 2026 may be difficult to grasp. The participation in long - duration bonds may be similar to 2025, with less incremental funds. If the trend of interest - rate bonds is not obvious, band trading will be challenging. Long - duration bonds have weak liquidity, and it is recommended to choose AAA - rated entities in developed provinces [5][88]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] AI 驱动基础设施需求，看好北美电力产业链 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1. 人形机器人 优必选斩获 AI 大模型公司超 0.5 亿元订单 随着海内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产落 地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替代 需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深度受 益。灵巧手、大脑和轻量化是人形机器人商业化落地的关键环节， 重点看好技术迭代和产业演进领先的国内生产厂商。 2. 新能源汽车 多家车企公布 11 月新能源汽车交付/销量 我们认为，在行业旺季趋势下，11月国内多数车企实现新能源汽车 交付/销量环比增长，全年新能源汽车表现亮眼。明年展望来看， 国内新能源汽车预计保持稳定增长，商用车电动化率提升叠加单车 带电量的增加预计带动动力电池需求较快增长。叠加国内外储能高 景气度，预计全年锂电池出货同比增长明显。在前期供给过剩导致 价格大幅下跌的背景下，动力及储能电池产业链 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI indicates intense competition in the AI large model industry, with a new "three-version segmentation" strategy aimed at enhancing workplace efficiency and targeting specific business scenarios [2][19] - Nvidia's H200 AI chip has been approved for sale in China, which could significantly enhance computing power in the market, despite the trend towards local alternatives [3][20] - Investment opportunities are identified in the following areas: Hong Kong internet leaders, gaming industry, and film and cultural tourism sectors, with specific companies highlighted for potential benefits [20] Industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Zootopia 2" with a box office of 272.384 million yuan (63.90% market share), "Get Out" with 98.387 million yuan (23.10%), and "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" with 13.981 million yuan (3.30%) [21][22] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are "Teamfight Tactics," "Honor of Kings," and "Endless Winter," while the top three Android games are "Heart Town," "My Leisure Time," and "Staff Sword Legend" [23][24] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcasting index are "Big Businessman" (81.2), "Sniper Butterfly" (80.9), and "The Rise of the Hawk" (80.9) [25][26] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with an index of 80.6, while the top animation is "Refining the God of War Season 3" with an index of 255.6 [27][30]

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 跨年行情如何逢低布局？三条配置主线值得重视 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周全球股指分化，美股科技股大跌，甲骨文、博通股价大幅回撤加剧投资者对 AI 泡沫的担忧，本 周五美国科技七姐妹指数、费城半导体指数分别下跌 1.1%和 5.1%。A 股市场风格分化，成长风格整体走强。主要 宽基指数中，北证 50、创业板指和科创 50 指领涨；微盘股指、红利指数和上证 50 指数领跌。一级行业方面，通 信、军工、电子、机械设备领涨；煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产领跌。大宗商品方面，本周白银价格继续加速 上涨，国内黑色系商品进一步走弱。外汇方面，美元指数下行，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率升破 7.06。 ·市场展望：跨年行情逢低布局，国内两大重要会议指引市场主线。近期海外美联储议息会议和国内政治局会 议、中央经济工作会议相继落地，且整体基调符合市场预期，权益市场风险偏好获得支撑。时隔一个月，A 股日成 交额再度回到 2 万亿元上方，换手率边际抬升，显示市 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The successful launches of the Li Jian No.1 and Long March 12 rockets validate China's heavy-lift capabilities in commercial space [1][14] - Li Jian No.1 achieved a "one rocket, nine satellites" launch, marking its entry into large-scale operations with a payload capacity of 1.5 tons to a 500 km sun-synchronous orbit, outperforming similar Indian rockets by over four times [1][15] - Long March 12, China's strongest single-core rocket, demonstrated its capability to launch large satellite constellations with a near-Earth orbit capacity of at least 12 tons [1][16] Summary by Sections Section 1: Li Jian No.1 and Long March 12 Launches - Li Jian No.1 successfully launched nine satellites, including three for international clients, establishing a strong market presence in the commercial launch sector [14][25] - The rocket's innovative avionics system enhances reliability and supports remote one-click launches, transitioning from custom to generalized systems [25][33] - Long March 12's successful mission included launching 16 low-Earth orbit satellites, showcasing its adaptability and efficiency with a record short turnaround time [16][34] Section 2: Global Commercial Space Development - SpaceX is redefining launch capacity standards with its Starship system, achieving near-Earth orbit capacity of 150 tons and a single-use capacity of 250 tons [3][20] - The commercial space market is projected to exceed $500 billion by 2025, driven by low-cost reusable rockets and satellite constellations [20][54] - The emergence of differentiated technologies, such as Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket, indicates a competitive landscape where second-tier companies seek to carve out market niches [21][22] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks include aerospace companies like Aerospace Power, Superjet, and West Materials, as well as space computing firms like Shunhao and Putian Technology [7][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the demand for credit bonds may slow down. The incremental funds on the demand - side may slow, and the supply of industrial bonds is expected to continue to increase, while the credit bond market still faces a "yield shortage" [1][2]. - In 2026, credit spreads may show characteristics of low - level and high - volatility. There are structural opportunities in industrial bonds, including opportunities driven by the opening of amortized debt funds, trading opportunities for ultra - long bonds, exploration of perpetual bond spreads, and opportunities for sci - tech bond component bonds [3][5]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Industrial Bond Supply and Performance - Driven by the new regulations on sci - tech bonds, the supply of industrial bonds increased in 2025, with central enterprises as the main force. From January to November 2025, industrial bond issuance was 7.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 798.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 2.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 478 billion yuan. Among them, sci - tech industrial bond issuance was 1.51 trillion yuan, and net financing accounted for 54% of industrial bond net financing [12]. - The credit spreads of industrial bonds in 2025 experienced a process of widening, narrowing, and low - level oscillation. The performance of long - duration varieties was weaker than that of medium - and short - duration varieties, and there were differences among industries [26]. 3.2 2026 Credit Bond Demand 3.2.1 Demand - side: Incremental Funds Slow Down - Although the decline in deposit rates may continue to drive the migration of residents' assets to wealth management products, the proportion of wealth management products allocating credit bonds may be difficult to increase due to the completion of the rectification of net - value smoothing means and the low - spread environment. In Q2 2025, the proportion of wealth management products allocating credit bonds was 38.8%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared with Q4 2024 [1][36]. - The new regulations on fund sales fees may cause redemption pressure on bond funds, especially short - term and medium - short - term bond funds. Assuming different redemption ratios, the scale of bonds involved is about 1.04 - 2.07 trillion yuan, including about 330.9 - 661.8 billion yuan of credit bonds [1][42]. - In 2026, amortized debt funds will be concentratedly opened, with an expected scale of over 600 billion yuan. If some products switch to a credit style, it may boost the demand for credit bonds with specific maturities [2][50]. - Credit bond ETFs are not affected by the new regulations and are expected to attract some incremental funds, but the increase may be less than that in 2025. In 2025, the scale of credit bond ETFs increased significantly, but in 2026, the market may not see a large - scale new issuance [52][53]. 3.2.2 Supply - side: Industrial Bond Supply Continues to Increase, and the "Yield Shortage" Remains In 2026, due to the low bond - issuing interest rate and the "green channel" for sci - tech bond issuance, the supply of industrial bonds is expected to continue to increase, while the issuance policy for urban investment bonds remains strict, and new financing is restricted. The credit bond market still faces a "yield shortage" [2]. 3.3 Structural Opportunities for Industrial Bonds under Low Spreads - **Opportunities Driven by the Opening of Amortized Debt Funds**: In 2026, the opening of amortized debt funds with a 5 - year - around closed - end period may drive the allocation demand for medium - and high - rated industrial bonds with a 5 - year - around maturity. 30 industrial entities with cost - effective 4 - 5 - year bonds are recommended [5][62]. - **Duration Strategy: Grasp the Trading Rhythm**: When the 10 - year Treasury bond has a downward trend, or when the long - end interest rate fluctuates with limited upward space, and the long - duration credit spreads break through or approach the mean + 2 times the standard deviation, and at the same time, the net purchase scale of credit bonds is relatively high, the net purchase scale of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds by funds rebounds, and the number of transactions and the proportion of credit bonds with a maturity of over 5 years increase, it is a relatively good time to trade ultra - long credit bonds. When the long - duration credit spreads narrow significantly and the trading activity of long - duration credit bonds is extremely high, it is necessary to be vigilant about the market reversal and grasp the profit - taking opportunity. 39 industrial entities with relatively active ultra - long bond transactions are selected [65][78][79]. - **Exploration of Industrial Bond Perpetual Variety Spreads**: As of December 5, 2025, the outstanding scale of public perpetual bonds of industrial entities was 2.56 trillion yuan. The spread of 3 - year perpetual industrial bonds is currently at a relatively cost - effective level. According to historical and seasonal rules, the first quarter may be a good time to allocate perpetual bonds, and profit - taking can be considered when the spread narrows to a low level and the buying power of credit bonds weakens. 44 industrial entities with cost - effective 2 - 3 - year perpetual bonds are listed [88][93]. - **Opportunities for the Liquidity Spread of Sci - tech Bond Component Bonds**: In 2026, sci - tech bonds are still in an expansion cycle. Investors should pay close attention to the changes in the net value and scale of sci - tech bond ETFs and the trading activity of sci - tech bond component bonds. They can also judge the cost - effectiveness based on the spread between non - component bonds and component bonds of the same entity with the same remaining maturity. For "quasi - component bonds" in primary issuance, if the coupon rate of new bonds is higher than the valuation of component bonds, investors can participate in primary subscriptions to obtain price - difference benefits [95][97].

Market Overview - The Wande All A index closed at 6267.06 on December 12, 2025, up 0.26% from December 5, 2025, while the China Securities convertible bond index rose 0.20% during the same period[1] - Year-to-date, the Wande All A index has increased by 24.80%, and the China Securities convertible bond index has risen by 16.50%[9] Market Dynamics - The market is entering a new phase of recovery, with significant support levels established before the recent downturn, indicating a more optimistic outlook among investors[11] - Structural risks are emerging, with the concentration of trading volume among the top 5% of stocks reaching 44.42%, close to the historical high of 45%[15] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests a continued upward trend in the market, with sector rotation likely to persist. Key sectors for rotation include new energy, dividends, and consumer goods[2] - New energy remains a preferred sector due to solid fundamentals, despite not recovering since the significant drop on November 21, 2025[37] Dividend and Consumer Sectors - The dividend sector has weakened since November 14, 2025, with the China Securities dividend index down 6.47%. Historical data suggests limited potential for further declines[39] - Consumer sectors are also lagging in recovery, with potential for a rebound as policies to stimulate consumption are anticipated in 2026[48] Convertible Bonds - Recent volatility in the Blue Sky convertible bond was triggered by the freezing of shares held by its controlling shareholder, leading to a price drop of 4.81%[51] - The impact of share freezes on the convertible bond market is expected to be limited, with overall market valuations remaining stable despite isolated credit shocks[61]