交银国际研究 行业更新 互联网及教育行业 DeepSeek 接入微信，AI+应用或已经具备大规模落地条件 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 2/24 6/24 10/24 2/25 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5334 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 2025 年 2 月 17 日 2 月 13 日、15 日，腾讯先后宣布了腾讯元宝 app 接入 DeepSeek、微信 AI ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 电池行业 动力电池行业集中度提升，关注固态电池研发进展 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 宁德时代 | 300750 CH | 买入 | 314.11 | 270.77 | 16.529 | 17.999 | 16.4 | 15.0 | 4.17 | 3.52 | NA | | 亿纬锂能 | 300014 CH | 买入 | 56.51 | 44.42 | 2.779 | 3.502 | 16.0 | 1 ...

市场策略 港股周报 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 钱昊 Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852)37661853 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 2025年2月19日 AI应用提速与政策共振，市场情绪再受提振： 短期利好因素集中释放后，市场或逐步回归基本面，可适时向红利资产切换： 2025年2月19日 2 • AI叙事向产业纵深推进。过去一周受阿里巴巴与苹果合作、微信接入DeepSeek等事件催化，加速探索AI应用端的使 用场景。本轮AI生态渗透、向应用扩散之快，超过2022年ChatGPT推出之时，反映了领先开源模型的特点，即成本低， 大幅降低了投资门槛，而本地部署更为简单直接。 • 民营企业座谈会召开，释放重要信号。本次民营企业座谈会上，众多科技领域民营企业负责人代表发言，包括互联网、 AI等领域， "科技"含量十足。座谈会进一步释放了多项重要信号，包括为民营经济发展注入信心、扎实落实促进民营 经济发展的政策措施等，市场情绪再受提振。 • 经过近一轮的快速上涨，恒指逼近23,000点，已接 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 房地产行业月报 淡季效应致销售下行，低基数下反弹可期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 行业表现 恒生指数 FactSet 2/24 6/24 10/24 谢骐聪, CFA, FRM philip.tse@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1815 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $4.60, indicating a potential upside of 73.6% from the current price of $2.65 [1][2][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to exceed expectations in Q4 2024, with projected collections of RMB 2.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68%, driven by better-than-expected renewal rates and ROI from new customer acquisition [6]. - Revenue for Q4 2024 is anticipated to reach RMB 1.36 billion, reflecting a 78% year-on-year growth, with the K12 segment expected to maintain over 100% growth [6]. - The adjusted operating loss for Q4 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 150 million, an improvement from previous expectations of RMB 280 million, due to effective channel operation strategies and cost efficiency [6]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue projections for 2024 have been updated to RMB 4,520 million, a 1.2% increase from previous estimates, with a growth rate of 52.7% [5]. - The forecast for collections in 2024 has been raised to RMB 5,602 million, reflecting a 3.9% increase, with a growth rate of 67.8% [5]. - Adjusted operating loss for 2024 is revised to RMB 1,144 million, showing a 9.6% improvement from earlier forecasts [5]. Performance Metrics - The company is expected to achieve a gross profit of RMB 3,077 million in 2024, with a gross margin of 68.1% [5]. - The adjusted net loss for 2024 is projected at RMB 1,012 million, with an adjusted net margin of -22.4% [5]. - The company aims for a strategic focus on healthy growth, enhancing service quality, and optimizing customer acquisition efficiency [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral [1][6][38] Core Views - The stock price may have fully reflected the upside potential, leading to the downgrade in rating. Despite a positive outlook on the domestic substitution trend in wafer foundry and the company's leading position in the industry, investors should consider high capital expenditures, downstream demand uncertainties, and increased competition in mature processes [6][7][9] - The target price is raised to HKD 48, reflecting a 2.25x price-to-book ratio for 2025, accounting for improved market liquidity and a reassessment of technology stocks [6][9][12] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 6,322 million - 2024: USD 8,030 million - 2025E: USD 9,414 million (up from previous estimate of USD 9,094 million) - 2026E: USD 10,291 million - 2027E: USD 11,238 million [5][20][40] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: USD 903 million - 2024: USD 493 million - 2025E: USD 1,055 million - 2026E: USD 1,348 million - 2027E: USD 1,778 million [5][20][40] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 20.9% in 2025, up from 20.1% previously estimated [20][40] Market Performance - The stock has increased approximately 200% since the second half of 2024, driven by improved fundamentals and increased market liquidity [6][7][9] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 287,213 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 47.95 and a low of HKD 14.02 [3][6] Capital Expenditure - The company has guided for capital expenditures of USD 7.33 billion in 2024, with expectations to maintain similar levels in 2025, which is higher than previous market expectations [6][7][9] - The capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is projected to remain high, indicating a focus on expansion despite potential impacts on gross margins [6][7][9] Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-book ratio is currently at 2.2x, which is significantly above the historical average of 1.0x, indicating a high valuation relative to its peers [6][9][12] - The relative premium of the A-shares over H-shares is currently at 142%, which is at the historical lower bound compared to an average of 199% [6][9][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price adjusted to HKD 2.56, reflecting a potential downside of 2.3% from the current price of HKD 2.62 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance continues to be under pressure, with same-store sales declining significantly across its brands in the fourth quarter. The Taier brand saw a 24.6% year-on-year decline, while the Jiumaojiu brand experienced an 18.5% drop. The company is actively adjusting its strategies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of March [7]. - The company is closing underperforming stores, with a net reduction of 20 Taier stores in the fourth quarter, primarily in mainland China. As of the end of 2024, the company will have 593 Taier direct-operated stores in mainland China [7]. - The company is shifting from a clear expansion strategy to a more cautious dynamic adjustment strategy, reflecting a cautious outlook on the industry environment. Despite this, the overseas business is developing steadily, contributing to long-term competitive advantages [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 4,006 million in 2022 to RMB 6,958 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.3% from 2024 to 2026 [6][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 49 million in 2022 to RMB 659 million in 2026, with significant fluctuations in growth rates, including a projected 114.5% increase in 2025 [6][12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.03 in 2022 to RMB 0.45 in 2026, indicating a recovery trend after a significant drop in 2024 [6][12]. Market Performance - The stock has seen a significant decline of 23.62% year-to-date, with a 52-week high of HKD 6.13 and a low of HKD 2.19 [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume is approximately 10.26 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies within the financial sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry benchmarks over the next 12 months [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a joint initiative by six ministries to promote long-term capital inflow into the market, aiming to enhance the stability and investment ratio of commercial insurance funds in A-shares [2]. - Specific investment targets are set, such as a 10% annual increase in the A-share market value held by public funds over the next three years and a target for large state-owned insurance companies to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-share investments starting in 2025 [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term assessments for various funds, with a focus on establishing a three-year evaluation period to encourage sustained investment strategies [2]. - The expansion of pilot programs for long-term stock investments by insurance funds is noted, with initial funding of 50 billion RMB and plans for further increases in 2025 [2]. - The report discusses the central bank's initiatives to facilitate stock repurchases and increase loan support for stock purchases, which are expected to provide significant support to the stock market [2]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The implementation plan aims to optimize the investment management mechanisms for social security and pension funds, enhancing their market participation [2]. - The report outlines the need for a more favorable investment ecosystem in the capital market to attract long-term funds [2]. Market Dynamics - Current investments by insurance funds in stocks and equity funds exceed 4.4 trillion RMB, representing 12% of total investment assets, with unlisted equity investments accounting for 9% [2]. - The report anticipates that the measures outlined will lead to a sustainable influx of capital into the A-share market, enhancing its stability and growth potential [2]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with their respective target prices and potential upside, including: - CICC (3908 HK) with a target price of 17.5, representing a 37.60% upside [3] - CITIC Securities (6030 HK) with a target price of 25, representing a 19.60% upside [3] - China Life (2628 HK) with a target price of 19, representing a 38.70% upside [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Ningde Times (300750 CH), with a target price raised to RMB 314.11, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current closing price of RMB 258.00 [1][4][6]. Core Insights - Ningde Times is expected to continue its strong profitability, supported by new technologies and international expansion, which will help sustain its market position [2]. - The company anticipates a revenue forecast for 2024 of RMB 361 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10% due to falling raw material prices, while net profit is projected to grow by 11.1% to 20.1% [6][10]. - The market share in the domestic power battery sector is expected to increase to 45.1% in 2024, marking a 1.9 percentage point rise, reversing a trend of declining market share [6][10]. - The company is actively expanding its battery swapping business, planning to establish 1,000 battery swap stations by 2025, with a long-term goal of 30,000 to 40,000 stations [6][10]. - Internationally, Ningde Times aims for its German factory to break even in 2024, with plans for a joint venture factory in Spain with Stellantis to start production by the end of 2026 [6][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to be RMB 361,000 in 2024, RMB 441,723 in 2025, and RMB 477,305 in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of -10.0%, 22.4%, and 8.1% [3][15]. - Net profit (in million RMB) is expected to reach RMB 50,004 in 2024, RMB 61,857 in 2025, and RMB 67,358 in 2026, with growth rates of 13.3%, 23.7%, and 8.9% respectively [3][15]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 36.0 in 2022 to 14.3 by 2026, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [3][15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in gross profit margin from 20.3% in 2022 to 27.8% in 2025, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company, 东方甄选 (1797 HK), with a target price of HKD 15.60, indicating a potential downside of 3.6% from the current price of HKD 16.18 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's short-term financial performance is expected to be impacted by business adjustments, but there are signs of operational recovery. The focus will be on enhancing self-operated products, brand influence, and expanding APP membership, particularly through collaboration with New Oriental Group [1][6]. - The financial forecasts for FY2025 show a revenue of RMB 4,710 million, a slight increase of 1.8% from previous estimates, while gross profit is expected to rise significantly by 46.0% to RMB 1,486 million [5][13]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 31.5% in FY2025, up from 22.0% in the previous forecast, reflecting a recovery in self-operated products [5][13]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue for FY2025 is estimated at RMB 4,710 million, with a gross profit of RMB 1,486 million and a gross margin of 31.5% [5][13]. - The adjusted operating profit is forecasted to be RMB 64 million, a significant decrease of 78.4% compared to previous estimates, indicating challenges in operational efficiency [5][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 76 million for FY2025, down 77.5% from prior estimates, reflecting the impact of strategic adjustments [5][13]. Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 16,758.76 million, with a 52-week high of HKD 28.90 and a low of HKD 9.50 [4][11]. - The year-to-date stock price change is reported at -10.01%, indicating a challenging market environment [4][11].