Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for QFIN US, with a target price raised to $58.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.2% from the current price of $46.69 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter earnings exceeded expectations, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 1.972 billion RMB, up 71.5% year-on-year and 8.1% quarter-on-quarter. The guidance for the first quarter of 2025 is a net profit of 1.75-1.85 billion RMB, indicating a stable performance with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 50% due to a low base [6][8]. - The asset quality is improving, with a 90-day overdue rate decreasing to 2.09%, a significant drop of 63 basis points from the previous quarter. The company also announced a dividend of $0.70 per ADS for the second half of 2024, totaling $1.30 for the year, which corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 23% [6][8]. - The report highlights a strong focus on shareholder returns, with a $450 million stock repurchase plan announced, of which $86 million has already been executed [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for QFIN US are as follows: - 2023: 16,290 million RMB - 2024: 17,166 million RMB (growth of 5.4%) - 2025E: 18,531 million RMB (growth of 8.0%) - 2026E: 19,658 million RMB (growth of 6.1%) - 2027E: 20,709 million RMB (growth of 5.3%) [5][8][14]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 4,285 million RMB - 2024: 6,264 million RMB (growth of 46.2%) - 2025E: 7,216 million RMB (growth of 15.2%) - 2026E: 7,811 million RMB (growth of 8.2%) - 2027E: 8,347 million RMB (growth of 6.9%) [5][8][14]. - The report also notes an increase in the net take rate, projected to reach 5.35% in 2025, up from 4.85% in 2024 [9][8]. Market Position and Trends - The report indicates that the light asset model's proportion remains high, accounting for 53% of loan facilitation in the fourth quarter, which is a 10 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from policies aimed at boosting consumption, which will play a more significant role in economic growth in 2025 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of 2.6% from the current price of HKD 27.30 [1][4][19]. Core Insights - The online business is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2024, with projected revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, driven by a 9% increase in paid reading users. The core IP operation revenue is anticipated to grow by 20% year-on-year [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 4.4 billion, which aligns with previous profit warnings. For 2025, the company expects stable online business performance and a 14% increase in core IP operation revenue to RMB 2.69 billion [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 8.1 billion, with online business revenue expected to reach RMB 4.09 billion. The core IP operation is projected to generate RMB 2.69 billion [3][13][21]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1.34 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 1.42 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 17.5% [3][21][23]. Business Segments - The online business segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a forecast of RMB 4.09 billion for 2025, while the copyright operation and other segments are projected to generate RMB 4.01 billion [3][13]. - The company is focusing on expanding its derivative products and short drama business, which are anticipated to provide additional revenue streams [2][7]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 8.33%, with a 52-week high of HKD 36.00 and a low of HKD 23.30, indicating volatility in market performance [6][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME US) with a target price raised to $17.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.7% from the current price of $15.09 [2][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent Music's Q4 profits exceeded expectations, with a 45% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit to 22.8 billion RMB, driven by improved gross margins [2][6]. - The company continues to see robust growth in its music subscription revenue, with a target of 150 million members and an average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) of 15 RMB remaining unchanged [2][6]. - A new $1 billion share buyback plan has been announced, alongside a maintained dividend payout ratio of 26% and a dividend yield of 1.2% [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 have been adjusted to 30,930 million RMB, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates [3]. - Online music revenue is expected to reach 25,313 million RMB in 2025, a 2% increase, with subscription revenue projected at 17,608 million RMB, also up by 1% [3]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is now 8,611 million RMB, a 5% increase from prior estimates [3]. Performance Metrics - The report notes a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to rise to 45.2% in 2025, up from 43.8% [3]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to increase to 31.8% in 2025, compared to 29.8% previously [3]. - The company’s stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.95% [5]. Market Position - Tencent Music's market capitalization is approximately $10.56 billion, with a 52-week high of $15.49 and a low of $9.46 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, noting that while social entertainment revenue may decline, online music and advertising revenues are expected to grow [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][14]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 earnings met expectations, with a net profit of 681 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.1% [6]. - The revenue guidance for 2025 indicates a strong growth rate of 10-15%, with international business revenue expected to account for 25% of total revenue [6]. - The international business is showing a positive growth trend, with a year-on-year increase in loan facilitation of 26.1% in Q4, and a target to reach 50% of revenue from international operations by 2030 [6]. - The company plans to increase shareholder returns, with a new dividend policy starting in 2025, targeting a payout ratio of 20-30% of net profit [6]. - The target price has been raised to $13.00, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of $10.72 [6][14]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 12,547 million RMB in 2023, 13,066 million RMB in 2024, and 14,391 million RMB in 2025, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 4.1%, and 10.1% [5][8]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 2,341 million RMB in 2023 to 2,745 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.2% in 2025 [5][9]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1,331.61 million USD, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 34.32% [4][6].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company阅文集团 with a target price of HKD 28.00, indicating a potential upside of +2.6% [1] - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for 腾讯音乐 with an updated target price of USD 17.00, reflecting a potential upside of +12.7% [3] - The report also maintains a "Buy" rating for 百度, highlighting the value of its cloud services and AI developments [8] - 信也科技 is rated as "Buy" with a target price of USD 13.00, indicating a potential upside of +21.3% [9] - 钧达股份 is rated as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 72.79, suggesting a potential upside of +24.1% [11] - 宁德时代 is rated as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 314.11, indicating a potential upside of +22.7% [13] Core Insights - The online business of阅文集团 is expected to exceed market expectations in the second half of 2024, driven by growth in paid reading users, with projected revenue of RMB 39 billion, a year-on-year increase of +5% [1] - 腾讯音乐's quarterly profit exceeded expectations, with a revenue of RMB 74.6 billion and a music subscription revenue growth of +18% [3] - 百度's new AI models, 文心4.5 and X1, are expected to enhance its cloud service revenue, projected to grow by +20% in 2025 [8] - 信也科技's international business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a target of 50% by 2030 [9] - 钧达股份 has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, which now accounts for 24% of total revenue, with a high gross margin of 9.1% in the second half of the year [11] - 宁德时代 is expanding its production capacity globally, with a projected revenue of RMB 362 billion in 2024, despite a slight decline in overseas revenue [13] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. 阅文集团 - Rating: Neutral with a target price of HKD 28.00 [1] - Expected revenue for 2024: RMB 39 billion, +5% YoY [1] - Adjusted net profit forecast for 2025: RMB 1.4 billion [1] 2. 腾讯音乐 - Rating: Buy with a target price of USD 17.00 [3] - Quarterly revenue: RMB 74.6 billion, with music subscription revenue growth of +18% [3] - Adjusted net profit forecast for 2025: RMB 8.6 billion [3] 3. 百度 - Rating: Buy [8] - Projected cloud revenue growth: +20% in 2025 [8] - New AI models expected to enhance capabilities and reduce costs [8] 4. 信也科技 - Rating: Buy with a target price of USD 13.00 [9] - Projected revenue growth for 2025: 10-15% [9] - International business revenue target: 50% by 2030 [9] 5. 钧达股份 - Rating: Buy with a target price of RMB 72.79 [11] - Overseas revenue contribution: 24%, with a gross margin of 9.1% [11] - Adjusted profit forecast for 2025: down by 62.7% [11] 6. 宁德时代 - Rating: Buy with a target price of RMB 314.11 [13] - Projected revenue for 2024: RMB 362 billion, -10% YoY [13] - Global production capacity expansion with a focus on local supply in Europe [13]

市场策略 港股周报 李少金| Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 钱昊| Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852)37661853 2025年3月18日 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com 消费政策加码，港股韧性持续 美股调整引发全球避险情绪升温，港股科网调整，内需接力，走出独立行情： "超级周"关键事项：央行决议、GTC大会与港股科网业绩： 2025年3月18日 2 • 美股持续调整引发全球避险情绪升温，港股小幅调整：特朗普政策不确定性叠加美国"滞胀"担忧持续发酵，导致美股 承压明显。港股方面，经历前期显著上涨后，科网股估值修复已较为充分，拥挤度攀升至相对高位，上涨动能有所减 弱。尽管南向资金保持净流入态势，但在外资及短线资金获利了结压力下，港股出现技术性回调。 • 科网调整，内需接力，港股展现出一定韧性。尽管港股科网板块出现调整，但在两会落幕后，促消费政策支持紧随其 后，育儿补贴等利好措施有望扩大落 ...

孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA 百度 (BIDU US) 文心大模型加速迭代，百度云价值进一步显现 原生多模态能力：具备对文本、图像、音视频等混合数据的综合处理能 力，语言能力包括理解、生成、逻辑和记忆显著增强，尤其是去幻觉、逻 辑推理以及代码能力。例如能够综合理解图片中的文字/表格，提取重点 并给予分析，对网络梗图能进行理解和逻辑解释。 技术升级：1）FlashMask 动态注意力掩码：提升长文本处理能力和多轮对 话上下文理解交互表现。2）多模态异构专家扩展：平衡不同模态梯度贡 献，解决训练梯度冲突问题，提升多模态融合能力。3）时空维度表征压 缩：降低图片和视频的计算复杂度，提升长视频语义提取及多模态数据训 练效率。4）基于知识点的大规模数据构建：通过知识分层采样、跨模态 压缩融合及定向合成技术提升模型知识密度，降低模型幻觉。5）基于自 反馈的 Post-training：自反馈迭代提升学习系统稳定性。 成本优势：文心 4.5 API 调用输入价格 0.004 元/千 tokens，输出价格 0.016 元/千 tokens，仅 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 电池 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 18 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 256.00 | 人民币 | 314.11 | +22.7% | | | 宁德时代 (300750 CH) | | | | | | | | 全球扩产提速，盈利能力保持韧性；维持买入 | | | | | | | 宁德时代 2024 全年收入和净利润基本符合业绩预告和我们的预期。公司全年 盈利表现强劲，高分红彰显发展信心。电池行业进入补库周期，公司作为行 业龙头有望受益。维持买入评级和 314.11 元目标价。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 300750 CH MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 299.00 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 169.00 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 3 月 17 日 互联网行业月报 促消费政策拉动多品类增速提升，预计 1 季度业绩利好持续 行业与大盘一年趋势图 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 资料来源 : FactSet 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA | 公 司 名 称 股 票 代 码 | | 评 级 | 目 标 价 | 收 盘 价 | ——每 股 盈 利 —— | | | ——市 盈 率 —— ——市 销 率 —— | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | FY26E | FY25E | FY26E | FY25E | FY26E | | | | | | (当 地 货 币 ) ( ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 18 日 今日焦点 2025 年 1-2 月我国经济延续稳中向好态势。生产端表现强劲，物价水平 温和，而在外部不确定性下，出口增长基本平稳。值得注意的是，两会 释放的积极信号，财政政策持续加力以及近期股市明显回暖所反映的社 会预期改善尚未完全体现在当前经济数据中。 随着"两重"建设加快推进和新质生产力培育力度加大，高技术制造业 和基础设施投资有望保持较快增长，成为拉动投资的主要力量。房地产 方面，各地因城施策政策继续加码，销售市场有望逐步企稳，但考虑到 库存去化和开发商资金压力，投资端复苏或将滞后于销售端。稳就业政 策持续发力、居民收入稳步增长以及消费刺激政策效应逐步释放，预计 消费市场将延续温和复苏态势。特别是通讯电子、家电家居等受益于以 旧换新政策的品类有望保持较快增长，服务消费也将随着供给质量提升 而加速恢复。考虑到居民消费信心恢复，房地产市场调整，经济整体复 苏或将呈现结构性特征，政策支持力度仍期待持续加力。 预计一系列稳增长政策效应逐步显现，经济有望延续稳中向好态势。生 产端方面，制造业转型升级步伐加快，新质生产力培育力度加大，将继 续为经济增长提供强劲 ...