Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to Western Securities Research Institute and its clients Core Points and Arguments - The call serves as a platform for expert opinions, which do not represent the views of the company [1] - Participants are reminded that investment decisions should be made independently, and they bear the responsibility for any investment risks [1] - The content discussed does not involve confidential national information, insider information, or any significant undisclosed information [1] - There is a caution against discussing personal privacy or any content that could lead to inappropriate speculation [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The disclaimer emphasizes that the opinions shared are personal and not reflective of the company's stance [1] - The call includes a reminder about the potential risks associated with investment decisions based on the information provided [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive parts industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The rise of domestic automotive brands is driving the upstream automotive parts industry, with expectations for China to cultivate world-class parts giants [2] - The industry is experiencing significant growth in smart, electric, and lightweight components, with domestic manufacturers gaining market share and opportunities for international expansion [2] - The automotive parts sector has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a CAGR of 12% in revenue and 26% in net profit from 2020 to 2023 [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review and Outlook - The automotive parts industry is benefiting from the rise of new energy vehicles and domestic brands, leading to an upward shift in the supply chain [2] - The industry is expected to continue growing, with domestic Tier 1 suppliers expanding their product categories and exploring international markets [2] 2. Key Sub-sectors: Smart Technology - Smart technology is becoming a key differentiator for vehicles, with increasing penetration of L2 and L2+ level autonomous driving systems [2] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate their market share in smart cockpit technologies, enhancing driving and riding experiences [2] 3. Key Sub-sectors: Electrification & Lightweighting - The electric drive system market is currently fragmented, with significant market share held by domestic manufacturers [2] - Lightweighting is becoming increasingly important due to regulatory pressures on fuel consumption, with domestic companies having a competitive edge in manufacturing [2] 4. Financial Characteristics of the Automotive Parts Industry - The automotive parts industry has maintained a steady increase in sales net profit margin, rising from 2.6% in 2019 to 4.9% in 2023 [2] - The PE/PB ratios are at historical lows, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [2] 5. Valuation of the Automotive Parts Industry - The report highlights that the automotive parts sector is currently at a ten-year historical low in valuation metrics, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2] 6. Key Companies in the Automotive Parts Industry - Recommended companies include Jingwei Hengrun, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and others, with a focus on their growth potential in the evolving market [3]

Industry Rating - The report gives the automotive industry an "Overweight" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2] Core Views - Policy incentives and high-quality supply are key drivers for the growth of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in China [2] - The penetration rate of NEVs in China has been continuously rising from 2019 to 2024, driven by both policy and supply-side factors [2][7] - The automotive sector has significantly outperformed the market in 2020, 2021, and 2023, driven by the rise of domestic brands and the development of electrification and intelligence [2] - China's automotive market still has significant growth potential, as indicated by the relatively low car ownership per thousand people compared to developed countries [2][21] Industry Recap and Demand Outlook - Policy stimulus has been a major driver of car sales, with three rounds of purchase tax reductions in 2009-2010, 2015-2017, and 2022 effectively boosting sales [5] - Post-2020, the market demand has shifted from first-time buyers to replacement and upgrade buyers, altering the market structure [5] - The NEV market has been driven by both policy and supply-side factors, with the dual-credit policy pushing automakers to increase the production of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [7] - The proportion of replacement buyers has significantly increased, with the replacement ratio expected to reach 50% by 2024 [9][12] Vehicle Valuation and Research Framework - Traditional automakers are typically valued using the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio, while new automakers, which are not yet profitable, are valued using the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio [2] - Sales volume is a critical factor in valuing automakers, regardless of the valuation method used [2] Price Band Analysis 10-20k RMB Price Band - In the 10-20k RMB price band, distribution channels, cost-effectiveness, and fuel economy are key considerations for consumers [2] - The 10-20k RMB price band has a large potential customer base in lower-tier cities, making channel reach crucial [2] - Consumers in this price band prioritize practicality and cost-effectiveness, with most unwilling to pay extra for智能化 features [2] - Pure electric vehicles (EVs) have relatively low penetration in this price band due to shorter ranges and less developed charging infrastructure in lower-tier cities [35] 20-30k RMB Price Band - In the 20-30k RMB price band, a balanced product with a standout feature and strong brand identity is key to success [2] - Consumers in this price band, mostly in higher-tier cities, prioritize factors like appearance, space, range, cabin intelligence, and驾驶 comfort [2] - Pure electric and增程 vehicles are preferred in this price band due to better battery range and充电 convenience [2] 30k+ RMB Price Band - In the 30k+ RMB price band, brand, quality, and experience are critical factors for consumers [2] - Traditional premium brands still dominate this price band, but their溢价 is expected to decline as新能源化 increases [2] - Consumers in this price band are more willing to pay for better quality and comfort, with油车 and增程 vehicles preferred over纯电 due to range and charging concerns [2] Key Companies - The report recommends比亚迪, 长城汽车, 零跑汽车, 理想汽车, and 广汽集团 as key companies to watch [3] - Other companies to monitor include 长安汽车, 吉利汽车, 小鸥汽车, 蔚米汽车, and 上汽集团 [3] Market Trends - The proportion of cars priced above 150k RMB has increased from 30% in 2018 to 49% in 2023, indicating a消费升级 trend [16] - The 30k+ RMB price band continues to expand, with理想 and问界 competing in this segment [16] - Domestic brands have seen a significant rise in market share, with自主乘用车占比 increasing from 33% in 2020 to 53% in 2023, and自主新能源车销量占比 rising from 60% to 76% [19] Sales and Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown relative outperformance compared to the沪深300 index over the past 1, 3, and 12 months, with汽车板块 returns of -0.06%, -6.06%, and -9.13% respectively, compared to沪深300 returns of -4.16%, -10.66%, and -14.63% [3]

Industry Overview - The aviation industry is divided into transport aviation and general aviation, with transport aviation being the primary focus for investment [7] - The industry is characterized by heavy assets, low profit margins, high barriers to entry, and high monopolistic tendencies [22][23][24] - The industry has experienced deep integration, with strong regulatory oversight helping leading airlines maintain their first-mover advantages [17][20] Business Models - Passenger airlines are categorized into full-service and low-cost models, with low-cost further divided into ultra-low-cost and hybrid low-cost [11] - Low-cost airlines focus on single aircraft types, high seat density, and point-to-point routes, while full-service airlines offer multiple cabin classes and hub-and-spoke networks [13][14] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply factors include the number of aircraft, seats, flight hours, and ASK (Available Seat Kilometers), while demand factors include GDP, passenger volume, and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) [2] - China's aviation demand is expected to grow steadily, with a projected low supply growth for seven consecutive years [57][59] Financial Characteristics - Aviation fuel is the largest cost component, accounting for over 30% of total costs, with Spring Airlines showing a clear advantage in single-aircraft costs [73][74] - Exchange rate fluctuations significantly impact the net profits of the three major airlines and Hainan Airlines [77] - Spring Airlines' ROE in 2023 exceeded 2019 levels, while the three major airlines still lag behind their 2019 performance [79][83] Valuation Trends - Over the past decade, the aviation industry's PB (Price-to-Book) ratio has fluctuated between 1.27x and 16.10x, while the PE (Price-to-Earnings) ratio has ranged from -319.90x to 220.42x [98] - PE valuation becomes ineffective when companies report minimal profits or losses, resulting in extremely high or negative PE ratios [98] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese aviation market is dominated by the three major airline groups (Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern), with Spring and Juneyao Airlines gaining market share [67][68] - The CR3 (Concentration Ratio of the top three airlines) index has shown a declining trend but rebounded in 2022 and 2023 [70][71] Key Companies - **Air China**: The only flag carrier in China, with a strong presence in first-tier airports and high market share in key routes [101] - **China Southern Airlines**: The largest airline in China by passenger volume, with a focus on Guangzhou and Beijing as dual hubs [107] - **China Eastern Airlines**: Operates a diversified business model, including full-service, low-cost, and regional airlines, with a strong presence in Shanghai [110] - **Spring Airlines**: A leading low-cost carrier in China, known for its efficient cost management and high aircraft utilization [113] - **Juneyao Airlines**: Operates a dual-brand strategy, with Juneyao focusing on premium services and 9 Air targeting the low-cost market [116]

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call focused on Western Mining, a publicly listed company primarily profiting from copper production [1] Key Points and Arguments - The company’s performance elasticity was discussed, highlighting its reliance on copper as the main revenue source [1] Other Important Content - No additional significant information was provided in the document [1]

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2024 年 08 月 13 日 ⚫ 核心结论 分析师 【宏观】2024 年宏观经济中期展望报告：修复式增长框架下的温和再通胀 随着宏观政策开始加力，预计下半年 GDP 增长 5%，通胀将温和回升。当 前地产周期的调整与房地产作为居民部门的核心资产逐步转向非核心资产 相关，这一过程仍未完成。在大类资产配置方面，我们认为 A 股仍有结构性 机会；中债方面短期不宜低估央行决心，长期取决于基本面；美国经济是否 真正衰退是当前影响美股的最核心变量；商品方面，铜金比预计维持震荡， 两者涨幅均未兑现。 【社会服务】锦江酒店（600754.SH）事件点评：股权激励计划出台，三年 业绩目标翻倍 公司为中国酒店业龙头，系列改革逐步落地已见成效。预计公司 2024-2026 年实现归母净利润 12.5/15.0/16.7 亿元，当前股价对应 2024-2026 年 PE 为 20.5/17.1/15.3×，考虑到公司改革进展顺利，维持"增持"评级。 【基础化工】新洋丰（000902.SZ）2024 年半年报点评：24H1 复合肥行业 景气度回暖，公司量利修复 我们预测 24-26 年归母净利润为 13.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huafon Chemical (002064 SZ) [2][4] Core Views - Huafon Chemical's Q2 2024 profitability showed sequential improvement, with net profit increasing by 22% QoQ to 835 million yuan [1] - The company's integrated advantages are being strengthened through capacity expansion projects [2] - Despite weak spandex industry conditions in H1 2024, Huafon achieved revenue growth of 9% YoY to 13 744 billion yuan and net profit growth of 12% YoY to 1 518 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance H1 2024 Results - Revenue: 13 744 billion yuan (+9% YoY) [1] - Net profit: 1 518 billion yuan (+12% YoY) [1] - Gross margin: 16 52% (-0 97pct YoY) [1] - Net margin: 11 06% (+0 29pct YoY) [1] Q2 2024 Highlights - Revenue: 7 087 billion yuan (+10% YoY, +6% QoQ) [1] - Net profit: 835 million yuan (+15% YoY, +22% QoQ) [1] - Gross margin: 16 88% (+0 76pct QoQ) [1] - Net margin: 11 83% (+1 58pct QoQ) [1] Business Segments - Chemical fiber: 4 654 billion yuan revenue (-0 11% YoY), 14 97% gross margin (-0 71pct YoY) [1] - Chemical new materials: 3 036 billion yuan revenue (-0 11% YoY), 21 78% gross margin (-3 52pct YoY) [1] - Basic chemical products: 5 261 billion yuan revenue (+42 38% YoY), 15 45% gross margin (-1 87pct YoY) [1] Industry Conditions - Spandex industry faced oversupply with 105 000 tons/year new capacity added in H1 2024 [1] - Average spandex price: 27 994 yuan/ton (-16% YoY) [1] - PTMEG (spandex raw material) average price: 15 611 yuan/ton (-21% YoY) [1] - Adipic acid average price: 9 696 yuan/ton (-1% YoY) [1] Capacity Expansion - 1 15 million tons/year adipic acid expansion project (Phase VI) reached 92 06% of budget [2] - 300 000 tons/year differentiated spandex project reached 39 83% of budget [2] - PTMEG capacity adjustment: increased from 120 000 tons/year to 240 000 tons/year [2] Financial Projections 2024-2026 Estimates - Revenue: 29 255/33 093/35 506 billion yuan [3] - Net profit: 3 107/3 666/4 003 billion yuan [3] - EPS: 0 63/0 74/0 81 yuan [3] - PE ratio: 11 8/10 0/9 2x [3] Key Ratios - ROE: 11 7%/12 3%/11 9% [5] - Gross margin: 17 2%/17 7%/17 7% [5] - Net margin: 10 6%/11 1%/11 3% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][7]. Core Views - The company has introduced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2024, aiming to double its performance targets over three years, with a focus on key performance indicators such as non-recurring net profit growth and return on equity [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.25 billion, RMB 1.50 billion, and RMB 1.67 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.5, 17.1, and 15.3 times [2][3]. Summary by Sections Incentive Plan - The company plans to repurchase 4-8 million shares, accounting for 0.37%-0.75% of the total share capital, with a budget of up to RMB 278 million at a maximum price of RMB 34.8 per share [1]. - The incentive plan targets 148 high-level and middle management personnel, with 152,300 shares reserved for future grants [1]. Performance Targets - The performance assessment for the incentive plan includes three phases with specific targets: - Non-recurring return on equity (ROE) minimums of 5.8%, 7.0%, and 8.0% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively - Non-recurring net profit growth rates of 30%, 65%, and 100% - A minimum of 1,200 new hotel openings each year [1][2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to have operating revenues of RMB 16.85 billion, RMB 18.26 billion, and RMB 19.26 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 15.0%, 8.4%, and 5.5% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.25 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 24.6% compared to the previous year [3].

行业周报 | 美容护理 即将进入中报密集披露期，关注业绩超预期机会 美容护理行业周报（2024/08/05-08/09） 核心结论 本周行情回顾：本周美容护理行业上涨 0.62%，相对沪深 300 指数收益 2.18pcts。涨幅前五的公司为名臣健康（14.86%）、巨子生物（10.64%）、 科笛-B（7.50%）、丸美股份（5.52%）、百亚股份（5.28%）。 重要公告及新闻：1）百亚股份发布 2024 年半年度报告，24H1 收入 15.32 亿元/+61.31%，归母净利润 1.80 亿元/+36.41%。2）欧莱雅收购高德美集 团 10%股份。3）资生堂发布 24H1 业绩，上半年销售额为 249 亿元/+2.9%， 营业利润亏损 1.32 亿元。4）诺和诺德 24H1 收入 193.66 亿美元/+25%，肥 胖症业务销售额增长 37%。5）欧莱雅发布 24H1 业绩，24H1 公司销售额/ 营业利润分别同比+7.5%/+8%，专业美发产品部、大众化妆品部、高档化妆 品部以及皮肤科学美容部营收分别同比+5.7%/8.9%/2.3%/16.4%。6）雅戈 尔投资林清轩。7）圣诺医药与 Gore R ...

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the second half of 2024 is projected to be around 5%, requiring a quarterly annualized growth rate of approximately 5.6% to meet the annual target[2][21]. - Inflation is expected to experience a mild recovery, with CPI growth continuing to rise while PPI remains negative[2][12]. Real Estate Market Adjustment - The adjustment in the real estate cycle is linked to a shift from core to non-core assets, with significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the housing market[3][13]. - The transition of real estate from a core asset to a non-core asset is still ongoing, impacting overall economic growth[3][13]. Asset Allocation Insights - A-share markets are anticipated to present structural opportunities, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[5][13]. - The short-term outlook for Chinese bonds should not underestimate the central bank's resolve, while the long-term outlook will depend on fundamental economic conditions[5][13]. - Commodity prices, particularly the copper-gold ratio, are expected to remain volatile, with both metals yet to fully realize their price increases[5][13]. Fiscal Policy and Government Revenue - Fiscal revenue has faced pressure, with general public budget revenue declining by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, falling short of the budgeted growth rate of 3.3%[23][24]. - The government may need to consider additional budget issuance or new bonds if revenue continues to lag, as fiscal spending must increase to stabilize domestic demand[24][26].