行业周报 | 非银金融 险资股票因子下调，看好券商板块盈利修复 金融行业周报（2025/12/7） 核心结论 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为 2.27%，跑 赢沪深 300 指数 0.99pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元金融 指数涨跌幅分别为+1.14%、+5.08%、+0.49%。 2）本周银行（申万）涨跌幅 为-1.18%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.46pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、 农商行本周涨跌幅分别为-2.67%、-0.50%、-0.86%、+0.41%。 投资观点：保险：本周五保险指数大涨 5.80%，我们认为主要系以下几个因 素形成合力：1）长期股票持仓风险因子调降，虽短期对偿付能力改善有限， 但长期资金入市态度明确，点燃市场做多情绪；2）开门红预计将超预期： 在居民"挪储"需求背景下，分红险优势凸显，成为头部险企主力产品，明 年负债端稳健增长开始被市场交易； 3）12 月美国降息概率提升，全球流动 性改善利好保险等高弹性品种。我们认为，保险将是产业结构转型中金融业 最具成长性的方向，一旦总量政策进一步发力，通胀趋势加强，那么保险的 估值修复 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" with expectations of a price increase exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 10% in the next 6-12 months [4][9]. Core Insights - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance capital investments in stocks allows for expanded equity allocation, reflecting regulatory flexibility in guiding capital optimization based on market conditions [2][3]. - The insurance sector's solvency ratios are robust, with comprehensive and core solvency ratios at 186.3% and 134.3% respectively, significantly above regulatory thresholds [3]. - The report emphasizes a diversified equity allocation strategy for insurance capital, benefiting sectors like banking, utilities, and coal, while also supporting technology growth companies [3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - On December 5, the National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a reduction in risk factors for long-term holdings of specific stocks, following earlier regulatory initiatives to encourage insurance capital market participation [2]. - The risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 index was reduced from 0.3 to 0.27, while for stocks held over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, it decreased from 0.4 to 0.36 [2]. Market Performance - As of Q3 2025, the stock allocation of major insurers ranges from 5.4% to 11.6% of total assets, with a slight increase from the beginning of the year [3]. - The report indicates that the adjustment in risk factors could theoretically release a minimum capital of 326 billion yuan, potentially increasing the stock balance by 1,207 billion yuan, which is 3.3% of the current insurance stock balance [3]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for insurance capital investments in dividend-paying sectors and technology growth companies, indicating a "stable base + innovation engine" investment strategy [3]. - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance for low cost and stable operations, Ping An for high dividend yield, China Life for competitive performance, and New China Life for strong investment capabilities [3].

行业点评 | 多元金融 融资租赁业务管理办法印发，推动金租行业高质量发展 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 事件：12 月 5 日，金管局发布了《金融租赁公司融资租赁业务管理办法》（以 下简称《办法》）。《办法》的出台是在 2024 年 9 月发布的《金融租赁公司管 理办法》的基础上，对金租各项业务经营行为进行的进一步规范，有助于引 导金融租赁公司更好地发挥"融资+融物"的作用，在服务实体经济和国家 战略等方面展现价值。 修订后的《办法》共八章六十八条，主要内容如下： 1）聚焦主责主业，突出功能定位。《办法》紧密围绕金融租赁公司融资租赁 业务的核心功能与专业特色，坚持以租赁物为业务开展的根本基础，系统梳 理了直接租赁、售后回租等业务各环节的操作标准。根据各项业务类型的实 际特点与运营需求，分别制定了具有针对性和适用性的管理规定；并特别对 厂商租赁模式的尽调调查和合同订立执行进行相关规定。 2）规范业务管理流程，提升运营标准化水平。通过细化金融租赁公司的全 流程操作规范，明确各环节的职责分工与执行标准，进一步落实管理责任。 针对直租、回租等常见的融资租赁方式，明确相关要求，涵盖尽职调查、风 险评价 ...

行业周报 | 电力设备 亚马逊自研芯片上新，特高压新项目获批复 电新行业周报 20251201-20251207 核心结论 DeepSeek 宣布正式推出新一代大模型，亚马逊自研芯片上新。DeepSeek-V3.2 在公开推理类 Benchmark 上已达到 GPT-5 水平，在保证推理质量的前提下， 降低算力成本与用户等待时间。亚马逊推出新一代自研芯片，与同等 GPU 系统 相比，可将 AI 模型训练和运行成本降低 40%。AI 数据中心推荐思源电气、四方 股份、伊戈尔。建议关注联德股份、科士达、中恒电气。 攀西特高压项目获批复，配电网数字化评价指标发布。本周，四川省发展改革 委核准攀西特高压交流工程；《配电网数字化评价指标（2025）》的发布；可控 核聚变方面，ITER 项目完成了中性束"冷阀箱"及第五个真空室扇段的交付。 电力设备持续推荐东方电气、神马电力，建议关注哈尔滨电气、特变电工；可 控核聚变推荐许继电气，建议关注海陆重工、国光电气、赛晶科技、合锻智能。 大金重工滚吊一体多功能运输船发布，海外海风布局继续推进。近期，大金重 工发布滚吊一体多功能运输船；公司与德国 Briese 公司建立合作伙伴关系 ...

宏观周报 为什么是 5%？ 宏观经济观察系列（十一） 核心结论 一、我们认为 2026 年经济增长目标会定在 5%，明显高于《学习辅导百问》 中基于人口变化和翻番目标倒算出的"十五五"期间 4.17%平均增长要求。 我们认为，4.17%的年均增速是一个理论上的"底线要求"或"平均线"，考 虑到政策目标的连贯性、预留空间给宏观经济波动、产业迭代和再通胀要求， 5%会是 2026 年的经济增长目标。 二、中央经济工作会议前瞻与市场表现复盘。中央经济工作会议将系统部署 2026 年经济工作，2026 年又是"十五五"开局之年，我们认为会议取向将 兼顾短期和长期政策。我们有如下判断： 1、经济形势上，相比去年会议的判断可能略积极，但未来风险挑战仍存。 2、政策基调上，财政、货币政策会保持相对积极。我们预计 2026 年一般预 算赤字率维持 4%不变或略高；包括一般公共预算赤字、特别国债、新增地 方政府专项债券在内的新增政府债券融资规模可能提高至 12.8 万亿元左右； 货币政策保持适度宽松，基准判断是 2026 年降准降息一次左右。 3、结构政策方面，依然强调扩大内需、新质生产力。消费政策支持有望在 "以旧换新"等财 ...

宏观点评报告 陷入"决策僵局"中的美联储 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 核心结论 从降息预期的节奏来看，市场除了定价了 2025 年 12 月降息之外，2026 年 仍需降息 2 次左右。数据显示，2025 年 12 月降息 25 个 bp 的概率高达 87%， 2026 年 4 月和 7 月各降息 25 个 bp 的概率分别为 41%和 32.4%。 从近期来看，非农和通胀数据的缺失，使得基本面处于难以准确估量。首先， 就业的不同数据打架，劳动力市场真实情况被掩盖。根据 ADP 公布的数据， 11 月私营部门就业人数减少 3.2 万，低于经济学家预估中值的增加 1 万，证 明裁员力度加大。但是截至 11 月 28 日当周，初请失业金人数减少 2.7 万， 至 19.1 万人。另外，11 月 21 日当周持续领取失业金人数也有所降低至 193.9 万人。首申数据的回落表明，在经历政府停摆与政策不确定性后，企业更倾 向于通过"冻结招聘"而非直接裁员来控制成本。与此同时，续请人数持续 盘踞高位，印证了市场吸纳能力的疲软，失业者再就业周期被拉长。其次， 从价格来看，出口商、进口商与消费者围绕关税成 ...

Core Conclusion - The report concludes that Zhonggu Logistics (603565.SH) has a leading advantage in profitability and capacity, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [3]. Industry Overview - The domestic trade is at an upward demand turning point, supported by RCEP for long-term foreign trade shipping rates [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic trade shipping, holding the top profitability scale in the industry from 2021 to 2025, with a competitive fleet size [3][4]. Financial Projections - Expected EPS for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.93, 0.97, and 1.00 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.38, 10.91, and 10.58 times [3]. - The absolute valuation method estimates the company's per-share value at 14.00 CNY, while the relative valuation method gives a per-share value of 12.07 CNY, leading to a target price of 13.03 CNY [3]. Business Model - Zhonggu Logistics primarily provides container logistics services and is one of the earliest companies in China to specialize in domestic coastal container transportation [4]. - The company has expanded into foreign trade container shipping, launching several near-sea routes and leasing some vessels to enhance its foreign trade operations [4]. Market Dynamics - The government is encouraging consumption to expand domestic demand, with expectations for improvement in 2025 [4]. - The Shanghai Shipping Research Center predicts a 5% growth in domestic container transport capacity supply in 2025, which is lower than the expected demand growth [4]. - Current foreign trade shipping rates are at a low point in a long cycle, with short-term fluctuations expected; however, RCEP's signing is anticipated to support long-term foreign trade fundamentals [4]. Competitive Advantage - The company possesses a significant competitive advantage in fleet size and continues to enhance its own capacity [4]. - Zhonggu Logistics maintains a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to sharing benefits with shareholders [4].

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes that companies that are the first to enter mass production of silicon photonic modules are likely to enjoy high margins during the industry's acceleration phase and benefit from market share consolidation [1][8] - Leading silicon photonic module manufacturers are expected to receive priority supply chain support, with key materials such as silicon photonic chips and CW light sources likely to see accelerated domestic substitution and market share breakthroughs [1][8] Industry Overview - Since 2025, the optical module industry has maintained high prosperity due to the continuous growth in AI computing demand. Silicon photonic modules are gaining recognition from end customers due to their high integration, low energy consumption, and low cost. Additionally, silicon photonic solutions are becoming a key supplement to capacity supply amid shortages of EML raw materials [5] - Silicon photonic technology is currently in the phase of integration and application, with future trends pointing towards higher speeds, greater integration, advanced packaging, and broader application fields [5] Physical Structure Analysis - Key components of silicon photonic modules include: 1. Lasers: Responsible for converting electrical signals into optical signals, with external CW light sources being the mainstream solution. Heterogeneous bonding technology is expected to become the mainstream solution for on-chip lasers in the future. 2. Modulators: Currently dominated by silicon-based substrates, with MZM being the mainstream solution. Thin-film lithium niobate modulators are expected to see large-scale application in the 3.2T era. 3. Detectors: Silicon-based germanium detectors are the mainstream solution. 4. Other passive devices: Such as (de)multiplexers, resonators, etc. 5. Electrical chips: Such as DSP, TIA, Driver, etc. [6] Industry Chain Analysis - The silicon photonic module industry chain can be divided into several segments: 1. Upstream: Key materials, including silicon photonic chips, which are primarily designed by North American manufacturers. The wafer foundry segment has high process barriers, with capacity concentrated in Tower Semi, GF, and TSMC. 2. CW Light Sources: Mainly composed of InP, with major suppliers including Sumitomo Electric and AXT. Domestic suppliers include Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photonics. 3. DSP: Mainly designed by Broadcom and Marvell, with TSMC responsible for foundry. 4. Midstream: Optical module packaging, with representative companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology. 5. Downstream: System integrators or end customers [7] Investment Recommendations - Companies that lead in the mass production of silicon photonic modules are expected to enjoy high margins and benefit from market share consolidation during the industry's acceleration phase. Key areas of focus include: 1. Silicon photonic chip design: Attention should be paid to the layout and further participation of optical module manufacturers in the silicon photonic chip design segment, with recommendations to focus on Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology. 2. Substrates and epitaxy: Focus on heterogeneous integration and InP material suppliers, recommending Sumitomo Electric and AXT. 3. Silicon photonic wafer foundry: Monitor capacity scale and expansion, as well as the potential for domestic substitution, recommending Tower Semi, GlobalFoundries, TSMC, and SMIC. 4. CW Light Sources: Look for investment opportunities amid supply-demand mismatches and capacity expansion, recommending Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photonics. 5. Silicon photonic modules: Focus on companies that achieve early scale and technological leadership, which may significantly enhance profitability, recommending Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, Cambridge Technology, Tianfu Communication, and Guangxun Technology [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights structural opportunities in sectors like commercial aerospace and AI mobile phones, suggesting a positive outlook for these areas [3]. Core Insights - The market experienced a short-term adjustment primarily due to the pullback in previously popular sectors such as the lithium battery industry and CROs. However, there are still structural opportunities present, particularly in specialized and innovative enterprises [3]. - The recent adjustments to the North Exchange 50 Index, which included high-growth companies in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors, are expected to enhance the index's representation of innovative sectors [3]. - The establishment of various local bond financing subsidy policies is aimed at supporting technology innovation bonds and green bonds, indicating a favorable policy environment for these sectors [2][17]. - The launch of the drug price registration system is anticipated to resolve the pricing reference issues for innovative drugs, potentially attracting more multinational pharmaceutical companies to invest in China [17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On December 2, the North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 139.4 billion, a decrease of 16.6 billion from the previous trading day. The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1398.13, down 0.76%, with a PE_TTM of 66.23 times. The specialized and innovative index closed at 2343.26, down 0.84% [7][12]. Stock Performance - Among the 286 companies listed on the North Exchange, 34 saw an increase in stock prices, 5 remained flat, and 247 experienced declines. The top five gainers included Jingchu Electric (330.7%), Kun Gong Technology (7.1%), and Longzhu Technology (6.7%). The top five decliners included Deer Chemical (-6.0%) and Henghe Co. (-5.2%) [14][15]. Important News - Multiple regions have introduced bond financing subsidy policies, with one area offering a subsidy of 400,000 for issuing technology innovation bonds. This reflects a shift towards a multi-faceted support model for local financing initiatives [2]. - The drug price registration system launched on December 2 aims to address the lack of reference pricing for innovative drugs, which could significantly enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceuticals [17]. Company Announcements - Ruihua Technology announced the receipt of a patent for a method of preparing high-impact polystyrene, indicating ongoing innovation within the company [18]. - Gobi Jia disclosed plans for a shareholder to reduce holdings by up to 2.8 million shares, representing 1.94% of total equity, due to operational management needs [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the silicon photonics module industry is experiencing high growth driven by increasing AI computing power demands and the advantages of silicon photonics technology, such as high integration, low energy consumption, and cost-effectiveness [7][10]. - The report identifies a shift in the industry towards silicon photonics as a key supply supplement due to shortages in EML raw materials, indicating a growing acceptance of silicon photonics solutions among end customers [27][28]. Summary by Sections Silicon Photonics Technology Overview, Industry Rhythm, and Development Trends - Silicon photonics technology utilizes silicon as the optical medium and is compatible with CMOS processes to manufacture photonic and optoelectronic devices, enabling applications in optical communication and computing [7][16]. - The current stage of silicon photonics technology is focused on integration and application, with future trends pointing towards higher speeds, greater integration, advanced packaging, and broader application fields [29]. Breakdown of Silicon Photonics Principles and Structural Components - Key components include: 1. Lasers: External CW lasers are the mainstream solution, with heterogeneous bonding technology expected to become prevalent for on-chip lasers [8]. 2. Modulators: Silicon-based substrates are predominant, with MZM being the mainstream solution [8]. 3. Detectors: Silicon-germanium detectors are the mainstream solution [8]. 4. Other passive devices include multiplexers and resonators [8]. Analysis of the Silicon Photonics Module Industry Chain - The industry chain is divided into three segments: 1. Upstream: Core materials, including silicon photonic chips, with design led by North American firms and manufacturing concentrated among a few foundries [9]. 2. Midstream: Module packaging, with leading companies closely collaborating with clients and maintaining high market shares [9]. 3. Downstream: System integrators or end customers [9]. Investment Recommendations - Companies that lead in the mass production of silicon photonics modules are expected to enjoy high margins and benefit from market share consolidation [10]. - Key areas of focus include: 1. Silicon photonic chip design: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are recommended for their strategic positioning [10]. 2. Substrate and epitaxy: Companies like Sumitomo Electric and AXT are highlighted for their roles in material supply [10]. 3. Silicon photonic wafer foundries: Tower Semiconductor, GlobalFoundries, TSMC, and SMIC are noted for their capacity and expansion potential [10]. 4. CW light sources: Companies like Yuanjie Technology and Shijia Photonics are recommended due to supply-demand mismatches [10]. 5. Silicon photonic modules: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Cambridge Technology, Tianfu Communication, and Guangxun Technology are highlighted for their technological leadership [10].