证券研究报告 嘉友国际 (603871 CH) 蒙煤量价均止跌回升，盈利筑底 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 仓储物流 | 目标价(人民币): | 17.78 | 嘉友国际发布三季报：3Q25 公司实现营收 24.86 亿元（yoy+30.61%， qoq+38.96%），归母净利 3.13 亿元（yoy-4.90%，qoq+4.74%），基本符 合我们预期（3.05 亿元）。前三季度实现营收 65.70 亿元（yoy+0.40%）， 归母净利 8.74 亿元（yoy-19.72%），扣非净利 8.71 亿元（yoy-19.14%）。 三季度，蒙煤进口量恢复至同比增长，我们看好公司凭借跨境陆运运营经验、 核心口岸资源、与上游资源方和下游客户的长期合作关系，通过物贸一体化 模式实现中蒙业务稳中有进。中非多项目持续推进，实现铜钴矿带物流网络 布局。维持"买入"。 焦煤价格止跌回升，蒙煤进口需求恢复同比增长 随国内焦煤价格止跌，蒙煤价格自底 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with target prices of RMB 80.96 for A-shares and HKD 68.49 for H-shares [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 293.7 billion and a net profit of RMB 52.7 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and 5.7% respectively. However, the growth rate has slowed in Q3 compared to H1, with Q3 revenue and net profit showing a slight decline [1][2]. - The beer sales volume for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 689.4 million tons, up 1.6% year-on-year, but the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 0.2% due to increased competition and promotional activities [2][3]. - The company is focusing on channel health adjustments and preparing for growth in 2026, with expectations of a consumption recovery improving the company's fundamentals in the medium to long term [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 88.8 billion and a net profit of RMB 13.7 billion, with net profit margin increasing by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year due to cost savings and efficient advertising spending [1][3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 43.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material costs [3]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting EPS of RMB 3.45, RMB 3.68, and RMB 3.91, reflecting a downward revision of 2%, 3%, and 5% respectively [4][10]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that the beer market is entering a low season, but anticipates a gradual recovery in mid-to-high-end beer sales as demand from the catering sector improves [2][4]. - The company is strategically positioning itself in the southern market and enhancing its product and channel layout, which is expected to support future growth [1][4].

证券研究报告 学大教育 (000526 CH) 淡季利润波动，收款环比提速 2025 年 10 月 28 日│中国内地 K12 教育 学大教育发布三季报：暑期行业性收入增长放缓，Q3 实现营收 6.97 亿元 （ yoy+11.19% ） ， 淡 季 利 润 率 波 动 较 大 ， 归母净利 143.28 万 元 （yoy-89.90%）。2025 年 Q1-Q3 实现营收 26.13 亿元（yoy+16.30%）， 归母净利 2.31 亿元（yoy+31.52%），我们认为三季度业绩趋势符合行业特 征，维持 25 年归母净利润 2.58 亿的预期，维持"买入"评级。 收入增长放缓，收款趋势边际改善 25Q3 学大教育营收延续降速趋势，实现营业收入 6.97 亿元，同比增长 11.19%；年初至报告期末，营收 26.13 亿元，同比增长 16.30%。Q3 收 入降速主要受到二季度收款降速影响，反映今年暑期招生端较为激烈的竞 争。边际来看，公司 25Q3 现金收款为 13 亿（yoy+19.8%），环比较 Q2 yoy+4.8%，显著提速，为全年收入双位数增长奠定良好基础。 业务扩张对利润率产生负面影响 25 ...

证券研究报告 申通快递 (002468 CH) 行业反内卷助力单票净利改善 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 仓储物流 | 目标价(人民币): | 21.02 | 3Q25 毛利率同环比均改善，单票净利同环比均改善 三季度虽为电商传统淡季，但在行业反内卷与公司多举措经营优化下，毛利 率同环比均改善，带动单票净利同环比均改善。3Q25，公司毛利率为 6.18%， 同比+0.75pct、环比+1.01pct。7 月以来，国家邮政局号召反对"内卷式" 竞争，全网开启少见的淡季提价行为，加盟网络年初以来承受的价格战压力 明显缓解，总部政策补贴压力相应改善，在较强的成本管控能力下，3Q25 公司单票收入提升幅度大于单票成本，带动公司单票净利同环比均提升 1 分，达到 0.046 元。 旺季开启，4Q25 价格有望延续修复态势 行业反内卷以来，公司价格持续修复，8、9 月件均价分别环比上涨 9 分、6 分。展望 4Q25，反内卷叠加电商旺季开启，公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown significant year-on-year growth in Q3, with revenue reaching 1.857 billion RMB, up 33.60%, and net profit of 571 million RMB, up 109.55% [1] - The company is positioned well in the special integrated circuit and security chip sectors, with a positive outlook for future growth due to increasing downstream demand and a recovery in orders [1][4] - The introduction of new products in specialized business areas, such as AI and visual perception, has been successful, contributing to a rich product line and increasing orders [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.904 billion RMB, a 15.05% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 1.263 billion RMB, a 25.04% increase [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 58.32%, an increase of 3.86 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of special product revenue [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.744 billion RMB, 2.224 billion RMB, and 2.732 billion RMB respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 32.31% [4] Product Development - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings in high-end AI and visual perception, as well as in the aerospace application sector, which is expected to contribute to revenue and profit growth [2] Employee Incentives - A stock option plan was announced, granting 16.8 million options to employees, which represents 1.98% of the company's equity, reflecting confidence in future growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongfu Microelectronics [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of mid-to-high-end products, driving revenue growth [1][2] - Strong collaboration with major clients and readiness in high-end capacity are anticipated to lead to increased orders and profit margin growth [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.078 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.94% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.90% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 448 million RMB, up 95.08% year-over-year and 44.32% quarter-over-quarter [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 20.116 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 17.77%, with a net profit of 860 million RMB, up 55.74% year-over-year [1][6] Outlook Summary - The report highlights the potential for increased demand following AMD's significant orders, which could lead to revenue and profit margin growth for the company [3][4] - The company has completed the construction of new production lines and is prepared to meet future potential orders [3][4] Valuation Summary - The target price has been raised to 52.80 RMB, reflecting an adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4][6] - The report projects net profits of 1.342 billion RMB for 2025, with corresponding EPS of 0.88 RMB [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.3 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 160 million RMB, up 11.01% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 409 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.21%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.33%. The net profit for the same quarter was 41 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.62% [1]. - The company is undergoing significant transformations in its channels, management, and research and development, which are expected to enhance growth in its core industrial control business [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross margin was 39.74%, slightly down by 0.22 percentage points year-on-year but up by 0.62 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The increase in the expense ratio is attributed to the company's ongoing management and R&D process reforms [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 271 million RMB, 339 million RMB, and 389 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.86, 1.08, and 1.24 RMB [5]. Business Strategy - The company has initiated a channel model upgrade since 2022, focusing on partnerships with foreign brands and shifting towards a strategy that emphasizes channels over direct sales [3]. - The establishment of subsidiaries focused on robotics and high-density motor solutions indicates a proactive approach to capturing new opportunities in the intelligent robotics sector [4]. Market Positioning - The company is expanding its market share in core products such as servo and PLC through various organizational changes and a focus on customer needs [3]. - The report highlights the company's efforts in developing key technologies for humanoid robots, which may lead to significant growth opportunities in the future [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 14.34 [1][5] Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue was RMB 1.289 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.83% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.99%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 269 million, down 5.48% year-on-year but up 70.68% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with previous expectations [1] - The overall gross margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 41.47%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points year-on-year. However, the gross margin for Q3 improved to 43.04%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5 percentage points, attributed to stabilizing retail demand and ongoing product price adjustments [2] - The company reported a net profit margin of 16.03% for the first nine months of 2025, with a significant increase in investment income in Q3, primarily due to fair value changes in financial assets held by a subsidiary [3] - The government plans to accelerate underground pipeline renovations, which is expected to boost demand for plastic pipes and stabilize sales for the company [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was RMB 1.289 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 9.83% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.99%. Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 3.367 billion, down 10.76% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 43.04%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.5 percentage points, while the gross margin for the first nine months was 41.47%, down 1.02 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first nine months was RMB 540 million, down 13.52% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 16.03% [3] Market Outlook - The government aims to renovate 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an investment exceeding RMB 5 trillion, which is expected to positively impact the demand for plastic pipes [4] - The retail pipeline demand is anticipated to gradually stabilize, driven by the ongoing recovery in the second-hand housing market [4] Valuation and Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 857 million, RMB 1.037 billion, and RMB 1.264 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.54, RMB 0.65, and RMB 0.79 [5] - The target price is set at RMB 14.34, based on a 22x PE valuation for 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 21.78 [1][5] Core Insights - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of RMB 361 million, a year-over-year decline of 24.29% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 9.36%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 34.48 million, down 39.35% year-over-year and 39.37% quarter-over-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue reached RMB 1.089 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 17.68%, with a net profit of RMB 114 million, down 26.62% year-over-year [1][10] - The domestic brand "Jueyan" continues to experience rapid growth, supported by a successful single product strategy [1][10] - The company's overseas business faced significant challenges due to increased tariffs, with estimated Q3 2025 overseas revenue declining by 25% to 30% year-over-year [3][11] Revenue Breakdown - The domestic business showed a slight decline in overall revenue due to a high base from last year's agency business, while the main brand "Jueyan" maintained a high growth rate, contributing approximately 50% to Q3 revenue [3][11] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross profit margin improved year-over-year, rising by 4.06 percentage points to 32.04% for the first three quarters of 2025, and by 1.29 percentage points to 32.2% in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs [4] - The company experienced an increase in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, with significant increases in sales expenses attributed to early marketing efforts for the Double Eleven shopping festival [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards by 13.70%, 10.50%, and 9.69% to RMB 163 million, RMB 201 million, and RMB 237 million respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of RMB 0.66, RMB 0.81, and RMB 0.95 [5] - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 21.78, based on a 33x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's strong growth in its proprietary brand despite challenges in overseas sales [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.19 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 70.32 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.51% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 7.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.45 billion, down 26.58% year-over-year and 34.09% quarter-over-quarter, slightly below previous expectations due to slow recovery in gross margin and early impairment provisions [1]. - The cumulative revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 206.01 billion, a decrease of 5.06% year-over-year, with a net profit of RMB 8.10 billion, down 36.61% year-over-year [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 25.19%, down 3.94 percentage points year-over-year. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 24.8%, reflecting a decline of 4.12 percentage points year-over-year and 1.91 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. This decline is attributed to slow product price recovery and the settlement of lower-margin construction income [2]. - The company managed to control its expense ratio, which was 16.61% for the first nine months of 2025, down 1.96 percentage points year-over-year. The absolute value of expenses was RMB 34.21 billion, a decrease of 15.08% year-over-year [3]. Asset Management and Financial Health - The company actively promoted asset revitalization, obtaining RMB 2 billion in debt assets during Q3, with a net accounts receivable of RMB 86.86 billion, down 18.6% year-over-year. The debt-to-asset ratio stood at 50.22%, up 6.08 percentage points year-over-year, indicating a healthy financial position [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was RMB 4.16 billion, an increase of 184.56% year-over-year, primarily due to improved cash collection [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards by 27.33%, 15.69%, and 6.15% to RMB 9.58 billion, RMB 16.42 billion, and RMB 22.92 billion, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.40, RMB 0.69, and RMB 0.96 [5][15]. - The company is assigned a 25x PE valuation for 2026, leading to an upward adjustment of the target price to RMB 17.19, reflecting a potential for revenue growth despite pricing pressures [5].