从 GDP 分项来看，居民消费延续修复，剔除库存后的私人投资边际放缓， 政府投资与消费明显回升。具体来看， 证券研究报告 宏观 美国三季度 GDP 折年增速反弹至 4.3% 2025 年 12 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 2025 年三季度美国 GDP 增长大幅超预期回升至 4.3%，衡量潜在动能的私 人消费+投资增速上升至 3%。2025 年三季度 GDP 季环比折年增速从今年 二季度的 3.8%进一步上行至 4.3%，高于彭博一致预期的 3.3%，同比增速 上行 0.2pp 至 2.3%。从分项上看，关税对存货和净出口的扰动仍然存在， 剔除上述扰动项后，衡量经济潜在动能的"私人消费+投资"增速由 2.9% 边际加速至 3.0%。三季度 GDP 超预期导致联储 2026 年降息预期有所回撤： 截至北京时间 23 点 20 分，相较数据公布前，联储 26 年降息预期回撤 4bp 至 54bp，美元指数微涨 0.1%至 98.1，2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 5bp、 3bp 至 3.54%、4.18%，标普 500 期货先跌后涨，上涨 0.1%。 1）居民消费增速由 2.5%加速至 3.5%，对 G ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" with a target price of RMB 43.90 [2] Core Insights - The company is advancing its second phase of the commercial aerospace project, investing approximately RMB 300 million to enhance production capacity for various specialty gases, including green hydrogen and krypton, to meet the growing demands of the launch site and satellite industry [6][7] - The first phase of the project has been completed, with successful applications of core products in multiple rocket launches, demonstrating the company's technical capabilities and cost advantages [8][9] - The company is expanding its market presence by establishing partnerships with key aerospace bases across China, which will help mitigate risks associated with single projects and capitalize on the increasing demand for commercial satellite launches [9] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 22,047 million (2024), RMB 21,877 million (2025E), RMB 23,029 million (2026E), and RMB 24,504 million (2027E), with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% expected for net profit [5][10] - The report anticipates net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1,684 million (2024), RMB 1,553 million (2025E), RMB 1,790 million (2026E), and RMB 2,051 million (2027E) [5][10] - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 43.90 based on a 17x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the growth potential from the second phase expansion and multi-base collaborations [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.84 [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale business in FY26 Q3, with retail performance better than wholesale. Overall terminal demand remains in a weak recovery phase [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network and has adopted a cautious approach to opening and closing stores. The retail environment is characterized by weak recovery and ongoing promotional activities [1][3]. - The main brand, NIKE, is expected to drive retail recovery in the short term through new professional sports products and integrated marketing strategies, which may improve profitability [1][4]. - The company is also enhancing its multi-brand strategy, with successful launches of new products tailored to the local market, which are gaining market recognition [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q3, retail business performance was slightly weaker than the first half of the fiscal year, primarily due to weak terminal consumption. However, the performance gap between online and offline channels has narrowed [2]. - Online sales have increased, leading to a deeper discount rate year-on-year, but the overall discounting pressure has improved compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2]. Store Operations - The company is focused on improving the operational efficiency of its stores, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in gross sales area of direct-operated stores by the end of Q3 FY26. The net store closure trend has slowed down compared to Q2 [3]. Brand Strategy - NIKE is concentrating on core categories such as running, basketball, and outdoor sports, with plans for independent stores for its ACG sub-brand. The company aims to enhance brand recognition and market share in the outdoor segment [4]. - The Adidas brand is also performing well, with positive market feedback on localized products, indicating a strong sales momentum [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 downwards by 4.2%, 4.0%, and 4.1% to RMB 1.25 billion, 1.43 billion, and 1.63 billion respectively. The target price has been adjusted to HKD 3.84 [5][11]. - The expected PE ratio for FY27 is 15.2x, reflecting the company's ongoing efforts to enhance retail efficiency and maintain competitive advantages [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% of Argentum, a lithium project in South America, for USD 175 million, marking its first significant overseas salt lake resource acquisition, which enhances the certainty of its second growth curve [1][2] - The Arizaro project in Argentina is the largest undeveloped salt lake in the South American "lithium triangle," covering approximately 205 square kilometers with an average lithium concentration of 297 mg/L, translating to a total resource of about 2.5 million tons of LCE [2] - The company has established a stable production line for lithium extraction and processing, with eight core patents in key areas, and aims to enter the lithium production business, thereby diversifying its revenue streams [2] - The real estate sector continues to provide cash flow, with significant sales progress in core projects, such as the "Yupin Luanshan" project in Shenzhen, which has a projected value of RMB 4-5 billion [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 80 million, RMB 90 million, and RMB 190 million, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.06, RMB 0.07, and RMB 0.13 [4] - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 5.15, reflecting a 60% premium on the estimated 2026 P/B ratio of 1.38x, driven by improved lithium supply-demand dynamics and the company's strategic acquisitions [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Giant Network, Xindong Company, and Kyeing Network, among others [10]. Core Insights - The Chinese gaming industry is experiencing robust growth in overseas markets, with self-developed game revenues increasing by 5.6% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, projected to rise from $11.6 billion in 2019 to $18.56 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 9.1% [1][20]. - The global gaming market is shifting from a traffic-driven model to one focused on structural innovation, marking the entry of Chinese gaming companies into a "high-quality growth era" [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and technological empowerment in driving overseas growth, with the gaming sector becoming a core vehicle for cultural export [2][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Growth Dynamics - The overseas revenue of self-developed games from China is expected to grow significantly, with mobile games maintaining a dominant share of around 90% since 2021 [20][25]. - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and the Middle East show strong user engagement and growth potential, while mature markets like Europe and North America are focusing on premium content and localized operations [1][29]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by large companies like Tencent and NetEase leveraging global strategies and stable revenue from evergreen products, while mid-sized firms like Didi Interactive and Lemon Microfun are successfully carving out niches through focused strategies [4][18]. - The report highlights the success of SLG (Simulation and Strategy Games) genres, which accounted for 43.3% of overseas revenue in the first half of 2025, alongside the emergence of innovative gameplay that combines different genres [3][17]. Investment Opportunities - Future opportunities in the overseas market are identified in regional expansion and the evolution of gameplay and genres, with a recommendation for companies like Giant Network and Xindong Company [6][10]. - The report suggests that the market is not saturated, as there remains potential for growth in both mature and emerging markets through premium content and localized strategies [5][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.82 [1][5][11] Core Insights - The company has successfully licensed its SIM0613 (LRRC15 ADC) to France's Ipsen for an upfront payment of USD 45 million and a total deal value of USD 1.06 billion, marking the third licensing deal in 2025 and indicating the company's innovative drug pipeline is entering a monetization phase [1][2] - The SIM0613 ADC platform shows significant potential, with advantages demonstrated in preclinical models and no direct competitors in clinical stages, positioning it as a potential first-in-class (FIC) product globally [2][3] - The company is accelerating its global pipeline expansion, with multiple products and technology platforms poised for overseas exploration, including promising candidates in autoimmune and oncology fields [3][4] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB 1.18 billion, RMB 1.40 billion, and RMB 1.52 billion respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [5][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are RMB 0.45, RMB 0.54, and RMB 0.59, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to be 33.19x for 2026 [5][11][12]

Group 1: Investment Opportunities in Chinese Assets - In 2025, foreign investment in Chinese assets through ETFs has seen a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with domestic ETFs accounting for $78.6 billion and foreign ETFs for approximately $4.5 billion [2] - The technology sector has attracted the most foreign inflows, totaling $9.5 billion, primarily from the US and Europe [2] - Six out of the top ten foreign inflow ETFs are technology-focused, with the top three being iShares China Technology UCITS ETF, Invesco China Technology ETF, and KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, each receiving over $2 billion [2] Group 2: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs), building on the success of infrastructure REITs [3] - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs is expected to enhance the multi-tiered REITs market and facilitate a shift in the real estate industry from a "sales-heavy" to an "operation-heavy" model [3] - Increased supply of public REITs is anticipated to lead to a more rational market pricing, as the previous supply was limited [3] Group 3: Gaming Industry Growth - The domestic gaming market in China is projected to reach a sales revenue of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68% [5] - The user base is expected to exceed 683 million, with a growth of 1.35%, driven by an increase in ARPU [5] - Mobile games are forecasted to generate 257.08 billion yuan, a 7.92% increase, while client games are expected to see a significant rise of 14.97%, reaching 78.16 billion yuan [5] Group 4: Aerospace Industry Insights - The global aerospace sector has been experiencing significant growth since 2020, with countries recognizing its strategic importance [6] - China's aerospace industry has made substantial advancements, particularly in satellite internet and reusable rockets, with increasing numbers of rocket launches and satellites being deployed [6] - The demand for solar wings, a critical subsystem for spacecraft, is expected to rise, presenting investment opportunities in this area [6] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - 欧陆通 - 欧陆通 is identified as a leading domestic provider of high-power server power supplies, with a target price of 233.37 yuan and an initial "Buy" rating [8] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in AI data centers, with expectations of both volume and price increases in server power supplies [8] - Potential catalysts for market performance include an increase in domestic data center localization rates and a recovery in the consumer electronics market [8] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - 先声药业 has announced the overseas licensing of its SIM0613 product for $45 million upfront and a total of $1.06 billion, marking its third licensing deal in 2025 [10] - This transaction indicates that the company's innovative drug pipeline is entering a monetization phase, with expectations for further licensing opportunities as new products progress through clinical stages [10] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on its growth potential in the global market [10] Group 7: Semiconductor Industry Performance - 博通 reported a revenue of $18.015 billion for Q4 FY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [11] - The net profit for the quarter reached $8.518 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 97%, driven by improved gross margins and reduced expenses [11] - The company’s Non-GAAP net profit was $9.714 billion, with a Non-GAAP EPS of $1.95, indicating strong financial performance [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xindong Company, Shenzhou Taiyue, Kaiying Network, and Jibite, while Perfect World is rated as "Hold" [8][9]. Core Insights - The gaming industry in China is expected to achieve a sales revenue of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68%, driven by an increase in user ARPU [1]. - Mobile games are projected to generate 257.08 billion yuan in revenue, up 7.92% year-on-year, while client games are expected to see a significant recovery with a revenue of 78.16 billion yuan, marking a 14.97% increase [1]. - Mini-games and console games are highlighted as the biggest growth areas, with mini-games expected to reach 53.54 billion yuan, a 34.39% increase, and console games projected at 8.36 billion yuan, an 86.33% increase [2]. - The overseas market for self-developed games is anticipated to reach 20.46 billion USD, growing by 10.23%, with strategy games dominating the revenue share [3]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - The gaming market is experiencing steady growth, supported by long-term operations and innovative new products [1]. - The user base is expected to exceed 683 million, with a growth of 1.35% year-on-year [1]. Mini-games and Console Games - Mini-games are benefiting from lightweight features and social media platforms, significantly lowering customer acquisition costs [2]. - Console games are seeing a surge due to hardware upgrades and popular titles driving sales [2]. Overseas Market - The overseas revenue for self-developed mobile games is projected to be 18.48 billion USD, with a growth rate of 13.16% [3]. - The North American, Japanese, and Korean markets contribute 57.81% of the overseas revenue, indicating a high market concentration [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with long-term operations and strong overseas strategy game capabilities, such as Giant Network [4]. - New product cycles and companies transitioning to platform-based business models are also recommended for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $388.35 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q4 FY25, achieving $18.015 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 FY25 was $8.518 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 97% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 106% [1]. - The semiconductor solutions business saw revenue of $11.072 billion in Q4 FY25, with AI-related revenue reaching $6.438 billion, a year-over-year increase of 74% [2]. - The infrastructure software business generated $6.943 billion in revenue for Q4 FY25, with strong demand for new orders, totaling over $10.4 billion [3]. - The company expects Q1 FY26 revenue to be $19.1 billion, driven by rapid shipments of ASIC and AI Ethernet switch products, with AI-related revenue projected to double year-over-year [4]. - The company has a strong order backlog of $73 billion in AI-related business, enhancing revenue visibility for the next 18 months [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 FY25, the company achieved a GAAP EPS of $1.74, a 93% increase year-over-year, and a Non-GAAP EPS of $1.95 [1]. - The company expects Non-GAAP net profits for FY26 to be $46.5 billion, with significant upward revisions for FY26 and FY27 [5]. Semiconductor Solutions - The semiconductor solutions segment reported a revenue increase of 21% year-over-year, with a notable 35% quarter-over-quarter growth [2]. - The company received a $10 billion order for ASIC-related business and a $11 billion order from a single customer, with plans for delivery by the end of 2026 [2]. Infrastructure Software - The infrastructure software segment's revenue grew by 2% year-over-year, with a total of $69.43 billion in revenue for Q4 FY25 [3]. - The total value of new contracts signed in Q4 FY25 exceeded $10.4 billion, indicating strong demand [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue of $19.1 billion for Q1 FY26, with AI-related revenue expected to reach $8.2 billion, doubling year-over-year [4]. - The total backlog of orders for the company is $162 billion, reflecting a $52 billion increase from the previous quarter [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has an optimistic expectation for the liquidity situation, as indicated by the downward trends in certificate of deposit (CD) rates and interest rate swap (IRS) yields [2]. - The liquidity is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with minor disturbances to the funds before the Spring Festival, as the MLF is likely to continue to be renewed in excess [5]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries a. Interest Rates - Bank - to - bank interest rates were differentiated. DR007 had an average of 1.44%, up 4BP from the previous week. R007 had an average of 1.51%, up from the previous week. DR001 and R001 had averages of 1.27% and 1.35% respectively. Exchange repurchase rates increased, with the average GC007 at 1.55%. CD rates and IRS yields declined. The 1 - year AAA CD yield was 1.64% at the end of last week, down from the previous week. The 1 - year FR007 IRS average was 1.52%, slightly down from the previous week [2][7]. b. Repurchase Transactions - Repurchase trading volume increased. The pledged repurchase trading volume was between 8.3 - 8.6 trillion yuan last week, and the average R001 trading volume was 76346 billion yuan, up 4094 billion yuan from the previous week. The outstanding repurchase balance was 12.9 trillion yuan at the end of last week, up from the previous week. In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks and money market funds decreased, while the borrowing scale of funds and wealth management products increased, and the borrowing scale of securities firms decreased [3]. c. Bill and Exchange Rates - Bill rates decreased. On December 19th, the 6 - month national bill transfer quote was 0.89%, down from the previous week, indicating a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased to 7.04 last Friday, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. The US 1 - year Treasury yield may show a steeper curve in the future [4]. d. This Week's Focus - This week, there are 8775 billion yuan of open - market funds maturing, including 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF. The LPR in December remained unchanged. US Q3 GDP will be announced on Tuesday, and China's November industrial enterprise profits will be announced on Saturday. Although the tax - payment period has passed, the increase in government bond supply this week may cause some disturbances to the liquidity. The MLF is expected to be renewed in excess, and the liquidity will remain stable and slightly loose [5].