证券研究报告 风语筑 (603466 CH) 经营逐步回暖，积极拥抱具身智能 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 17 日│中国内地 | 文化娱乐 | 公司发布 24 年报&25Q1 季报：24 年营收 13.76 亿元（yoy-41.44%），归 母净亏损 1.35 亿元（yoy-147.97%），符合业绩预告（-1.35 至-0.9 亿元）； 25Q1 营收 3.82 亿元（yoy+29.81%），归母净利 0.40 亿元（yoy+368.25%）。 公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利人民币 2 元。内生经营已呈回暖趋势，维持"买 入"评级。 24 年营收&毛利率下行，25Q1 已好转 24 年营收下降主因行业经营环境偏弱，文旅类项目结算周期较长，部分项 目尚未结算，以及公司为降低回款风险，项目选择更为谨慎。24 年综合毛 利率为 22.98%，同降 6.9pct，主因营收下降同时部分成本刚性。销售/管理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 6.08%/7.59%/4.67%/0.55% ，同比 +0.73/+3.19/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 156.16 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 95.21% [1][2] - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to over 60%, specifically to 62.94%, which is a 15.28 percentage point increase year-on-year, enhancing the investment appeal [3][8] - The company benefits from rising prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, leading to a notable increase in gross profit margin to 27.0%, up 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.0%, with sales prices for electrolytic aluminum and alumina averaging 17,549 RMB/ton and 3,420 RMB/ton, respectively, marking increases of 6.6% and 33.6% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume for electrolytic aluminum and alumina reached 5.837 million tons and 10.921 million tons, with year-on-year growth of 1.5% and 5.3% respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, with a dividend ratio raised to 62.94%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [3][8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 16.13 billion RMB, 17.75 billion RMB, and 21.29 billion RMB, representing decreases of 19.44% and 19.06% in the first two years [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.37 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.5 for 2025 [5][9]

证券研究报告 固收 供给监管趋严，信用均衡配置 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 16 日│中国内地 信用月报 研究员 张继强 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 文晨昕 SAC No. S0570520110003 SFC No. BSF414 +(86) 21 2897 2068 研究员 仇文竹 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 朱沁宜 SAC No. S0570523080005 SFC No. BTF199 SAC No. S0570524070005 wangxiaoyu@htsc.com 2025 年 3 月城投债重回净偿还，监管端出现多处新变化：交易所修订《3 号指引》，体现"防风险"与"促转型"并重的监管思路，对城投市场化转 型方面提出了更高的标准，协会亦对非名单内的地方国资主体发行审核同步 升级，多要求地方国资主体市级以上政府出函确认"市场化经营主体"。从 策略来看，关税 ...

证券研究报告 一季度 GDP 超预期的背后 华泰研究 研究员 吴宛忆 wuwanyi@htsc.com 2025 年 4 月 16 日│中国内地 动态点评 一季度 GDP 及 3 月经济活动数据点评 一季度 GDP 实际增长实现良好开局，一方面"抢出口"效应或支撑出口保 持较快增长，且进口增速回落，从读数上看，贸易顺差对名义 GDP 增速的 贡献进一步提高；另一方面，考虑到去年同期高基数及闰年效应，消费在 一季度呈现回升态势亦值得关注。一季度 GDP 实际增速录得 5.4%，明显 高于彭博一致预期的 5.0%，名义 GDP 增速录得 4.6%，持平于去年 4 季度， 1 季度环比增长 1.2%（折年率达 5%左右）。贸易顺差对 GDP 增速的贡献 较去年四季度进一步上行——我们估算其对一季度名义 GDP 增速的贡献从 去年四季度的 1.9 个百分点进一步上行至 2.2 个百分点。 往前看，美国"对等"关税落地对出口的影响或将在今年二季度集中显现， 全球增长亦可能在二季度放缓，有必要进一步加大稳内需政策以对冲外需 放缓带来的潜在影响，从而进一步夯实一季度以来内需回升的基础。4 月 9 日之后，美国进口加权平减关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 156.16 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 95.21% [1][2] - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to over 60%, specifically to 62.94%, which is a 15.28 percentage point increase year-on-year, enhancing the investment appeal [3][8] - The company benefits from rising prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, leading to a notable increase in gross profit margin to 27.0%, up 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.0%, driven by higher sales prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with average selling prices of 17,549 RMB/ton and 3,420 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 6.6% and 33.6% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume for electrolytic aluminum and alumina reached 5.837 million tons and 10.921 million tons, marking year-on-year growth of 1.5% and 5.3% respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, with a dividend payout ratio raised to 62.94%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 16.13 billion RMB, 17.75 billion RMB, and 21.29 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a decrease of 19.44% and 19.06% in the first two years [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.37 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.5 for 2025, up from a previous target of 13.91 HKD [5][8]

恒力石化 (600346 CH) 证券研究报告 全年净利同比微增，新项目增量可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 17 日│中国内地 | 化学纤维 | 公司于 4 月 16 日发布 24 年年报：实现营业总收入 2364.0 亿元，同比+1%， 归母净利润 70.4 亿元（扣非净利润 52.1 亿元），同比+2%（扣非后同比 -13%）；其中 24Q4 营业总收入 585.4 亿元，同/环比-5%/-10%，归母净利 润 19.4 亿元，同/环比+61%/+78%。据年报，公司末期拟每股派息 0.45 元 （含税），股利支付率为 44.97%。公司 Q4 业绩基本符合我们的前瞻预期 （18.5 亿元），考虑公司成本及产品线重于芳烃的差异化优势，维持"买入"。 供需格局偏弱致炼化盈利承压，下游需求回暖提振聚酯毛利率 据年报，年内 160 万吨/年高性能树脂及新材料、恒力化纤年产 40 万吨高性 能特种工业丝、汾湖基地 12 条线功能性薄膜项目投产，南通基地 12 条线 功能性薄膜和锂电隔膜项目预计于 25H1 投产，高 ...

证券研究报告 英伟达(NVIDIA) (NVDA US) H20 受限或堵住以内存弥补算力漏洞 | 华泰研究–海外科技 | | 动态点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 17 日│美国 | 半导体 | 英伟达 4/15 公告称，向中国（含港澳）与其他 D:5 国家出口 H20 芯片需获 美国政府许可，并预计 Q1 计提 55 亿美元相关费用，包括库存和采购承诺 等。据 CNBC 估算，2024 年 H20 为英伟达贡献约 120-150 亿美元收入。 本轮限制不仅针对 H20 本身，我们认为重点为涵盖所有在内存带宽、互连 带宽或两者组合上达 H20 水平（配备 96GB HBM3 和 4.0TB/s 内存带宽） 的产品，以堵住以内存和带宽速度来弥补算力（performance density）的漏 洞。AMD 也于 4/16 发布公告 MI308（我们估计内存与 MI300 相当，为 192GB HBM3）也受影响，涉及 8 亿美元相关费用。两家公司在消息出来后，4/16 盘前股价均跌达 7%。我们也认为日后若 Blackwell 发出口版亦难逃被禁。 据英伟达官网， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.91 CNY [4][7][8] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.415 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 55.29%, exceeding previous expectations of 1.99 billion CNY [1] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 22.12%, a decrease of 3.0 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 175 million CNY, up 28.11% year-over-year but below the forecast of 210 million CNY due to increased expenses [1][2] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in high-performance data centers and robotics, which are anticipated to drive future growth [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.415 billion CNY, with a significant increase in the fourth quarter, where revenue reached 825 million CNY, up 60.42% year-over-year and 30.71% quarter-over-quarter [1][2] - The revenue from new energy connectors was 2.180 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 59.46%, while communication connectors generated 111 million CNY, a 4.84% increase [2][6] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to continue its international expansion, particularly in North America, where production capacity is expected to increase, mitigating tariff impacts [3] - The company has formed a joint venture to develop high-speed copper cable products for the AI sector and has completed the development of connectors for humanoid robots, leveraging long-term partnerships with major automotive clients [3][4] Valuation and Projections - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 3.173 billion CNY, 3.875 billion CNY, and 4.687 billion CNY, with year-over-year growth rates of 31.4%, 22.1%, and 21.0% respectively [4][6] - The estimated net profits for the same period are 250 million CNY, 300 million CNY, and 390 million CNY, with adjustments made due to higher expenses from new product developments [4][6]

一季度 GDP 实际增长实现良好开局,一方面"抢出口"效应或支撑出口保 持较快增长,且进口增速回落,从读数上看,贸易顺差对名义 GDP 增速的 贡献进一步提高;另一方面,考虑到去年同期高基数及闰年效应,消费在 一季度呈现回升态势亦值得关注。一季度 GDP 实际增速录得 5.4%,明显 高于彭博一致预期的5.0%,名义 GDP 增速录得 4.6%,持平于去年 4 季度, 1 季度环比增长 1.2%(折年率达 5%左右)。贸易顺差对 GDP 增速的贡献 较去年四季度进一步上行 -- 我们估算其对一季度名义 GDP 增速的贡献从 去年四季度的 1.9个百分点进一步上行至 2.2个百分点。 | 研究员 | 吴宛忆 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570524090005 | wuwanyi@htsc.com | | SFC No. BVN199 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | 研究员 | 易媚 | | SAC No. S0570520100005 | evayi@htsc.com | | SFC No. AMH263 | +(852) 3658 6000 | | 联系人 | ...

证券研究报告 纳思达 (002180 CH) 奔图 A3 打印机快速放量 | 华泰研究 | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 15 日│中国内地 | 计算机设备 | 公司发布年报，24 年营收 264.15 亿元（yoy+9.78%），归母净利 7.49 亿元 （yoy+112.11%），扣非净利 3.53 亿元（yoy+105.60%）。报告期内，公司 对相关子公司计提资产减值损失（主要为商誉减值）总计 9.03 亿元，剔除 长期资产减值影响，归母净利为 15.49 亿元。24Q4 单季度营收 70.21 亿元 （yoy+14.79%，qoq+6.39%），归母净利-3.32 亿元（亏损同比收窄 94.98%）。 业绩低于前次预期（前次预期 24 年利润 12.4 亿元），主因商誉减值，公司 高端 A3 产品进展顺利，长期看好公司国产打印机的领军地位，维持"买入"。 奔图 A3 打印机销量大幅增长，信创市场实现复苏 2024 年奔图收入 46.58 亿元，同增 19.87%，净利润 6.15 亿元，同增 10.87%； 打印机销量同比增长 11.21%， ...