Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. job market remains stable, with mild inflation, despite disruptions from government shutdowns, leading to only a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations [2][3] - Recent data indicates a marginal improvement in construction starts and an increase in government bond issuance, while retail sales have weakened due to subsidy reductions and weak demand during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [3][4] - The market is currently in a phase of uncertainty, with expectations for a spring rally, but liquidity conditions remain cautious as institutional buying slows down [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to position for the upcoming spring market rally by focusing on sectors such as AI, batteries, non-ferrous metals, and certain chemicals that are expected to improve [5][6] - The report suggests a cautious approach to small-cap stocks, which have shown weakness recently, while emphasizing the importance of sector rotation and focusing on undervalued segments [11] - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in oil prices due to supply disruptions, with a focus on industrial metals and agricultural products in the current investment strategy [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - China Shenhua's acquisition of assets from the State Energy Group is expected to enhance its EPS and resource base, with a total transaction value of approximately 133.6 billion yuan [19] - JD Group is facing short-term revenue pressure due to high base effects from previous subsidy actions, with projected revenue growth of only 0.4% in Q4 2025 [20] - The report indicates that the logistics sector, particularly express delivery, is experiencing a slowdown in volume growth, but companies with strong cash flow and cost advantages are expected to benefit [15][16] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The new asset-liability management regulations for insurance companies are expected to enhance the industry's ability to manage risks associated with low interest rates and new accounting standards [16] - The EU's decision to delay anti-dumping measures on Chinese tires reflects ongoing trade dynamics, with potential implications for companies with overseas production capabilities [17]

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日│中国内地 动态点评 保险 保险资产负债管理全面升级 华泰研究 保险 增持 (维持) | 李健，PhD | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570521010001 | lijian@htsc.com | | SFC No. AWF297 | +(852) 3658 6112 | | 于明汇* | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570124070107 | yuminghui@htsc.com | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 行业走势图 (13) (5) 4 13 21 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 Dec-25 (%) 保险 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 资产负债管理新规意见稿发布 12 月 19 日，金融监管总局发布《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》 （《意见稿》），相比于 2018 年以来发布的《保险资产负债管理监管暂行办 法》和五项监管规则，《意见稿》系统地完善了监管规定，从监管目标、治 理结构、政策程序、模型系统、定量指标等方面提出了更为严格且细致的要 求，其中多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The high base effect from national subsidies is expected to constrain short-term performance in the home appliance category, impacting revenue and profit growth for the company [1] - The company is projected to face revenue growth pressure in Q4 2025, with total revenue expected to increase by only 0.4% year-on-year to 348.4 billion yuan, compared to a 14.9% increase in Q3 2025 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the efficiency of the company's takeaway business and the effectiveness of cross-selling new users to its e-commerce platform [1] - Anticipated policies to stimulate consumption in the home appliance sector in 2026 may provide support for the company's performance [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is adjusted to 1,305.2 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.9% from previous estimates [11] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 27.1 billion yuan, 23.1 billion yuan, and 41.9 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant declines due to the tapering effect of national subsidies [4][11] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline to 2.1% in 2025, down from previous estimates [11] Valuation - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 38.70 USD per ADS and 150.58 HKD per ordinary share, reflecting a decrease from previous values [14] - The valuation for the retail business is set at 23.77 USD per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 8.0 times the 2026 forecast, which is below the comparable company average [14][15] Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a slowdown, with online retail sales growth decelerating to 5.7% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025, influenced by high base effects from previous national subsidy programs [2] - The company’s performance in the home appliance category saw a significant decline, with retail sales dropping by 19.4% year-on-year in November 2025 [2] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing policies, which could support the company’s performance in the consumer goods sector [3] - The report suggests that the company’s performance may improve if the domestic demand policies are effectively implemented [3]

证券研究报告 金工 2025 年外资买入哪些中国资产 ETF 2025 年 12 月 21 日│中国内地 ETF 点评 ETF 市场观察：2025 年中国科技资产 ETF 获外资流入较多 截至 2025 年 12 月 20 日，2025 年以来全球投资于中国资产的 ETF 累计获 得 831 亿美元的资金净流入。其中，境内 ETF 累计获资金流入 786 亿美元， 境外 ETF 则累计净流入约 45 亿美元。从总体数值来看，外资买入中国资产 占比较小；然而，就内部分化情况来看，2025 年以来外资对境内资产的配 置存在显著倾向性：就行业分布来看，科技板块获外资流入最多，达 95 亿 美元，主要来自美国和欧洲地区；就具体产品而言，外资流入排名前 10 的 ETF 中有六只为科技 ETF，排名前 3 的 iShares 中国科技 UCITS ETF、 Invesco 中国科技 ETF 和 KraneShares CSI 中国互联网 ETF 获资金净流入 均超过 20 亿美元。 ETF 市场回顾：上周中证 A500 指数相关 ETF 获资金流入较多 上周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）ETF 市场股票 ...

Macro Insights - In November, the US CPI significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI also fell by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6%, below expectations [2] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate dropped to 0.1%, while the core CPI month-on-month growth rate decreased to 0.08%, indicating a low inflation environment [2] Financial Sector Insights - In November 2025, the total issuance of wealth management products reached 2,631, a month-on-month increase of 23.6%. Public fund new issuance amounted to 94.6 billion units, up 31% month-on-month [3] - The new guidelines for performance assessment of fund management companies emphasize long-term performance and increase mandatory co-investment ratios, aligning the interests of fund companies with those of investors [3] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality stocks, particularly in retail and wealth management sectors, with specific mentions of China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank [3] Company-Specific Insights - Haitian Flavor Industry (603288 CH) announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to a minimum of 80% of annual net profit for cash dividends, alongside a special dividend of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares for 2025 [4] - Micron Technology (MU US) reported FY26Q1 revenue of $13.64 billion, a 57% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations. The adjusted net profit was $5.48 billion, also above forecasts, with a significant increase in gross margin [5] - Aotewei (688516 CH) introduced a stock incentive plan, granting 5.7 million restricted shares, with performance targets set for net profit growth of at least 20% in 2026, 40% in 2027, and 100% in 2028 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 59.64 [6]. Core Views - The company's 2025 equity incentive plan demonstrates confidence, with a proposal to grant 5.7 million restricted shares, targeting net profit growth rates of no less than 20%/40%/100% for 2026/2027/2028 [1][2]. - A significant procurement contract worth approximately RMB 700 million for the sale of string welding machines and other equipment has been signed, which is expected to support future performance [1][3]. - The company's platform layout is accelerating, with advancements in semiconductor equipment, solid-state batteries, and perovskite equipment, potentially opening a second growth curve [4]. Summary by Sections Equity Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant 5.7 million restricted shares, with performance targets based on net profit exceeding RMB 500 million, aiming for growth rates of 20% in 2026, 40% in 2027, and 100% in 2028, translating to net profits of at least RMB 6 billion, RMB 7 billion, and RMB 10 billion respectively [2]. Procurement Contracts - A procurement contract has been signed for the sale of string welding machines, with a total sales amount of approximately RMB 700 million, expected to be delivered starting December 2025, which will likely boost the company's performance in 2026 [3]. Platform Layout and Growth - The company is accelerating its platform layout in various sectors, including semiconductor equipment, solid-state batteries, and perovskite technology, which is expected to contribute to a new growth trajectory [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to RMB 546 million, a decrease of 13.20%, while the net profit for 2026 and 2027 is projected to be RMB 670 million and RMB 791 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.73, RMB 2.13, and RMB 2.51 [5].

Revenue Insights - In November, the growth rate of general public budget revenue fell to 0% from 3.2% in October, with tax revenue growth declining by 5.4 percentage points to 3.2%[3] - The cumulative year-to-date growth rates for VAT and corporate income tax are 3.9% and 1.7%, respectively, outperforming last year's rates of -3.8% and -0.5%[3] - Non-tax revenue continued its negative growth trend, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 32.8% in October to 10.8% in November[3] Expenditure Insights - The year-on-year decline in general fiscal expenditure narrowed from 19.1% in October to 1.7% in November, while the adjusted expenditure growth rate increased from 15% to 33% month-on-month[2] - General public budget expenditure's year-on-year decline improved from -9.3% in October to -4.2% in November, with 83.7% of the annual budget utilized by the end of November, lower than the five-year average of 85.4%[7] - Government fund expenditure turned positive at 2.8% in November, recovering from a -38.2% decline in October, primarily due to increased local government bond issuance[9] Market Implications - The marginal recovery in fiscal expenditure suggests resilience in fiscal policy, which is crucial for stabilizing growth and market expectations[4] - The ongoing fiscal policy adjustments are expected to support domestic demand and investment, particularly through special bonds and budgetary investments[5] - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with potential risks from insufficient fiscal stimulus and weaker domestic demand[9]

证券研究报告 金融 公募绩效考核优化，关注优质金融 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 18 日│中国内地 行业月报 公募绩效考核优化，关注优质金融 25 年 11 月全市场发行理财产品 2631 份，环比+23.6%；公募基金新发份额 946 亿份，月环比+31%。12 月《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意 见稿）》下发，强化长期业绩导向、提高强制跟投比例，并明确量化降薪问 责机制等，将基金公司及其核心投研人员的利益与投资者的长期利益深度绑 定。资本市场中长期稳步向上趋势不改，奠定资管产品发展基础。建议把握 优质个股，银行推荐零售及财富管理标杆招行 AH，财富管理战略地位提升 的宁波银行；券商推荐大财富管理产业链具备较强优势的广发 AH、东方 AH。 银行理财：存续规模微增，收益表现下行 根据基金业协会数据，截至 25Q2 末，券商资管规模为 6.14 万亿元，季度 环比+4%。2025 年 11 月新发份额 44.69 亿份，环比持平。从新发份额结构 上看，债券型占比最高，达 53.27%。 私募基金：存量规模环比增长，证券投资基金备案规模环比提升 根据基金业协会数据，截至 2025 年 10 月末，全 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The marginal recovery in broad fiscal expenditure indicates resilience in the economy, with a year-on-year decline in November's fiscal expenditure narrowing from 19.1% in October to 1.7% [2] - The adjusted broad fiscal expenditure (seasonally adjusted) showed a month-on-month increase from 15% in October to 33% in November, reflecting credit expansion driven by policy financial tools and local government debt issuance [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The report highlights four main pathways through which overseas macro events influence the domestic market, including economic drivers, geopolitical factors, AI industry trends, and global liquidity [4] - Despite a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, there is a concentration of consensus trades in "long AI technology + long industrial metals + short USD," leading to increased market volatility [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) plans to absorb and merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, which is expected to increase net capital by 105% and enhance business synergies [5] - Tencent's gaming division is leveraging AI to enhance game development and operational efficiency, with a focus on "Games as a Service" (GaaS) to strengthen competitive advantage [6] - Pony.ai reported a revenue of $25.44 million for Q3 2025, a 72% year-on-year increase, driven by the positive impact of Guangzhou's single-vehicle operational efficiency [7]

Macro Overview - In November, the US added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 50,000, while October saw a decline of 105,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% compared to September, with the labor participation rate increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% [2] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 0.1% month-on-month, down from an expected 0.3% [2] - The market has slightly increased the expectation of cumulative interest rate cuts in 2026 to 60 basis points [2] Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology granted conditional approval for the first L3 vehicles from Changan and BAIC Blue Valley, marking a significant step towards the practical application of L3 autonomous driving technology [3] - The approval is expected to accelerate the restructuring of the smart driving industry chain, with significant investment opportunities in smart vehicles, control chassis, domain control chips, and lidar [3] Construction and Building Materials - From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 1.1%, real estate by 15.9%, and manufacturing by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating pressure on investment demand [4] - The central political bureau emphasized the need to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand, suggesting that infrastructure investment may see a rebound [4] - Recommended stocks include Yaxiang Integrated, Meiyu Technology, Sichuan Road and Bridge, China National Materials, China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, Dongfang Yuhong, and Tubao [4] Real Estate Market - The report discusses the urgency of revitalizing the US real estate market under the Trump administration, focusing on improving housing affordability and mortgage liquidity as primary goals [5] - The report anticipates that short-term policies may focus on lowering mortgage rates and easing credit access, which could have expansionary effects on the economy but may exacerbate long-term structural issues [5] CXO Industry - The CXO industry is experiencing marginal improvements due to external factors, with expectations of a new high-growth cycle driven by overseas interest rate cuts and domestic recovery [10] - The report highlights the core competitiveness of Chinese CXO firms in efficiency, cost, quality, and rapid expansion capabilities, with a recommendation for leading firms such as WuXi AppTec and Kelaiying [10] Internet Sector - The local life market in Q3 2025 showed signs of optimization in the ride-hailing sector and expansion in the food delivery sector, with significant regional growth disparities [11] - The report indicates that the overall profit margin in the industry is on an upward trajectory, with expectations for annual profit margin expansion in the ride-hailing and food delivery segments [11] - Recommended companies include Meituan, Dash, Grab, and Uber [11]