证券研究报告 香港中华煤气 (3 HK) 港股通 核心利润增长 5%，绿能驱动结构升级 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 20 日│中国香港 | 燃气及分销 | 香港中华煤气公布 2024 年报业绩：收入 555 亿港元，同比-3%；核心利润 59.5 亿港元，同比+5%；归母净利 57.1 亿港元，同比-6%。公司核心利润 低于我们预期的 60.8 亿港元，主要是城燃气量增速不及我们预期。香港煤 气销量同比持平，涨价效益有望延续。内地城燃销气增速回归中单位数，价 差修复趋于收尾。可再生能源和绿色能源业务具备增长潜力。2024 年公司 维持 DPS 35 港仙，对应股息率 5.3%。公司分红规划明确，维持买入评级。 香港煤气：煤气销量稳定，涨价效益有望延续 2024年公司的煤气销量为27,159TJ、同比+0.1%；其中住宅气量同比-1.4%、 受气温同比上升和离港消费双重影响；商业/工业气量同比+1.4%/+5.2%、 得益于旅游和航空业复苏。考虑到香港本地需求稳定，我们预计 2025 年煤 气销量延续同比持平的态势 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 34.33 HKD [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 15.8% to 8.12 billion RMB for 2024, but incurred a net loss of 209 million RMB due to goodwill impairment and increased sales expenses [1][2]. - The core business continues to grow, with significant advancements in IP derivative products and ongoing AI integration enhancing IP operations [1][4]. - The company has a robust pipeline of IP reserves, with online business revenue growing steadily and IP operations showing a substantial increase of 33.5% in revenue [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 8.12 billion RMB, a 15.8% increase from 2023, but reported a net loss of 209 million RMB compared to a profit of 805 million RMB in 2023 [1][12]. - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024 was 1.14 billion RMB, aligning with the upper limit of the prior forecast [1][12]. Online Business - Online business revenue reached 4.03 billion RMB in 2024, a 2.1% increase, driven by the launch of more member content [2][12]. - The company optimized its distribution channels, resulting in a 28.2% decrease in revenue from Tencent products, while third-party platform revenue grew by 32.0% [2][12]. IP Operations - IP operations generated 4.09 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, marking a 33.5% increase, with the new subsidiary contributing 1.64 billion RMB [2][3]. - The company has established partnerships with over 150 licensing partners across various sectors, enhancing its IP derivative product offerings [3][4]. Profitability Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been slightly adjusted, with expected Non-IFRS net profits of 1.41 billion RMB and 1.57 billion RMB respectively [4][12]. - The target price has been revised to 34.33 HKD, reflecting adjustments in profit expectations and valuation metrics [4][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 16.40 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.86 billion RMB for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.7% to 2.44 billion RMB, while the adjusted net profit fell by 5.8% to 1.79 billion RMB. In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.22 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and a net profit of 910 million RMB, up 146% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s glass fiber and related products generated a revenue of 15.48 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 7.3% increase year-on-year. The sales volume of roving and products reached 3.025 million tons, up 21.9%, while electronic cloth sales increased by 4.7% to 880 million meters [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.0%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 28.6% in Q4 2024, driven by the recovery of glass fiber prices and an increase in high-end product sales [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.4 RMB per 10 shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 39.3%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a new round of price increases for glass fiber, with production capacity expansion and zero-carbon manufacturing strategies enhancing operational efficiency and cost advantages [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 15.86 billion RMB, with a net profit of 2.44 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 19.7% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 results showed a significant recovery with a net profit increase of 146% [1][2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.0%, with Q4 showing an improvement to 28.6% [2][3]. Sales and Production - The company’s glass fiber and related products revenue reached 15.48 billion RMB in 2024, with a sales volume of 3.025 million tons for roving, marking a 21.9% increase [2]. - The company’s production capacity reached 3.061 million tons, maintaining its position as an industry leader [4]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company announced a cash dividend of 2.4 RMB per 10 shares, with a payout ratio of 39.3% [3]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 2.03 billion RMB, a 134.4% increase year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued improvement in profitability due to rising glass fiber prices and increased demand for high-end products [4][5]. - The target price for the company is set at 16.40 RMB, based on a projected P/E ratio of 20x for 2025 [5].

4Q24 公司销售费用率同比降低，毛利率同比下降 证券研究报告 国药股份 (600511 CH) 收入平稳增长，部分子公司拖累业绩 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 20 日│中国内地 | 医药商业 | 公司 2024 年收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 505.97/20.00/19.96 亿元， 同 比 +1.8%/-6.8%/-4.6% ； 4Q24 收 入 / 归母净利润 / 扣非归母净利润 125.69/5.19/5.07 亿元，同比-4.5%/-24.1%/-23.4%。由于受市场环境影响， 部分客户回款周期延长，以及带量采购品种付款压力加大等影响，2024 年 公司收入及利润增速相对承压，导致业绩不如我们预期（24 年收入/归母净 利润 522.58/22.01 亿元）。我们认为短期业绩波动不改长期增长逻辑，公司 基本业务稳固，维持买入评级。 2024 年部分子公司拖累业绩表现，投资收益同比平稳增长 24 年业绩增速受部分子公司拖累，我们看好回款政策优化或带来后续改善： 1）国控北京：收入 147.83 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 5.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The overall PVA market is experiencing weak demand, but the company is seeing increased revenue from polyester chips and PVA optical films. The company reported a revenue of 8.03 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million RMB, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s fourth quarter of 2024 showed significant growth, with a revenue of 2.08 billion RMB, up 33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 170 million RMB, up 363% year-on-year. This exceeded expectations due to reduced financial costs and increased PVA sales [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable competitive landscape in the PVA market and the ramp-up of its new materials segment, including PVA optical films and PVB intermediate films [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s PVA sales increased by 1% to 209,000 tons, while revenue from PVA decreased by 4% to 2.26 billion RMB. The average price per ton also fell by 4% to 11,000 RMB [2]. - The company’s overall gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 13.0% in 2024, with a gross margin of 12.6% in Q4 2024 [2]. Market Outlook - The PVA price and the price difference with acetylene have increased by 3.4% and 296 RMB/ton respectively since the beginning of the year. The company anticipates a recovery in PVA market conditions supported by demand and an optimized competitive landscape [3]. - The company plans to launch new production lines for VAE emulsions and PVA optical films, aiming for full production by Q2 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 530 million RMB, 670 million RMB, and 770 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 27%, and 15% [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.25 RMB, and the company is assigned a target price based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, leading to a target price of 5.00 RMB [4].

证券研究报告 星宇股份 (601799 CH) 业绩符合预期，智能车配套有望加速 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 20 日│中国内地 | 汽车零部件 | 公司 24 年实现营收 132.53 亿元（yoy+29.32%），归母净利 14.08 亿元 （yoy+27.78%）。Q4 营收 40.27 亿元（yoy+33.73%，qoq+14.78%），归 母净利 4.31 亿元（yoy+34.49%，qoq+12.56%），归母净利润符合我们在 业绩前瞻中的预期（4.18-4.78 亿元）。考虑到公司已获取国内增量品牌的较 多份额，25 年新项目有望多款爆款车型，且公司海外拓展积极，由国内头 部迈向全球头部车灯企业，我们维持"买入"评级。 公司具备技术领先优势，同时在优质新势力客户卡位优势明显，新势力项目 单车价值量和利润较此前客户多有提升，增加公司成长性。公司全球化布局 推进顺利，继塞尔维亚产能逐步释放发力欧洲市场，注册成立墨西哥星宇和 美国星宇，寻求更多北美机会，逐步向车灯行业全球头部企业迈进。 盈利预测与估值 考 ...

证券研究报告 中材科技 (002080 CH) 风电/电子景气向上，期待低介电放量 销售费用率同比明显下降，资本开支同比大幅减少 24 年公司期间费用率 13.6%，同比+0.3pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用 率 1.0%/5.7%/5.3%/1.6%，同比-0.9pct/+0.7pct/+0.3pct/+0.2pct，其中销售 费用率下降主要系市场开发费及物料消耗等费用明显下降。24 年公司经营 性净现金流 36.0 亿元，同比+25.3%（调整后），其中 24Q4 为 17.1 亿元， 同比-62.4%。24 年公司资本支出 45.6 亿元，同比-58.8%，随着公司锂膜、 玻纤等产线逐步投产，25 年公司整体资本支出有望进一步下降。 风电需求有望延续快速增长，低介电玻纤实现量产和国产替代 据国家能源局，24 年全国风电新增装机 79.8GW，同比+6%，我们认为 25 年风电需求有望延续快速增长，带动公司风电叶片及风电纱销量进一步增 长。同时，公司持续推动研发创新，成为世界第三家、国内第一家第二代低 介电产品批量供货的专用供应商，截至 24 年底公司已拥有四条低介电玻纤 生产线，我们认为随着 A ...

证券研究报告 科技 GTC2025: 推理能成为英伟达的下 个长期叙事吗? 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | 中国内地 动态点评 GTC2025: 推理能成为英伟达的下一个长期叙事吗? 3/18,英伟达召开 GTC 2025, CEO 黄仁勋在会上做关于生成式 AI 发展趋 势的主旨演讲,并发布了包括 Blackwell Ultra/Rubin 在内的新一代 GPU. 搭载新 GPU的服务器、和基于硅光技术的新一代交换机产品。发布会当天, 英伟达股价收盘跌 3.4%。我们认为: 1）这次发布会未能完全打消投资人对 Scaling Law 到头导致算力需求增速放缓的忧虑,2)长期看推理有望成为推 动 AI 算力增长的主要动力，但需求什么时候爆发，谁能成为主要受益者目 前还不确定。3）产业链方面,我们预计 2025年搭载 Blackwell Ultra 的服 务器出货台数在 2.7万机柜左右,台积电、工业富联有望受益。 观点#1：GTC 未能打消投资人对 Scaling Law 到头的疑虑 过去两年,驱动英伟达为首的 AI 算力产业链业绩快速增长的主要叙事是, Al 大模型所需要的参数规模的增长速度( ...

证券研究报告 宽观 日央行按兵不动,关注美国关税风险 华泰研究 2025年3月20日|中国内地 动态点评 3月日央行议息会议点评 概览:今天(3月19日)日本央行宣布维持政策利率 0.5%不变,符合市场 预期。日央行重申"若经济数据符合预期,将继续加息";行长植田和男表 示,日本国内工资上涨趋势令人鼓舞,通胀存在上行风险,但同时也强调美 国关税政策可能带来不确定性。整体来看,目央行的表态中性。往前看,我 们认为. 若美国对日关税不严重冲击日本经济,日央行年内或将累计加息 75bp,且不排除下次加息在7月议息会议之前。 3 月日本央行议息会议如期宣布维持政策利率 0.5%不变。日央行声明中对 利率的前瞻指引也与此前一致,即"如果经济数据符合预期将继续加息"的指 引:行长植田和男重申,当前日本实际利率为负,政策利率远未达到中性水 平,不排除年内进一步加息。由于议息会议基本符合预期,日本资产价格波 动较小。截至 17:00. 相比会议前,日元基本持平于 149.3 日元/美元;10 年期日债收益率小幅上行 1bp 至 1.51%;市场预期日央行年内再加息 32bp。 | 研究员 | | | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告 宏观 3月 FOMC:联储如期暂停降息但关 注经济走势 | 华泰研究 | | | --- | --- | | 2025年3月20日 中国内地 | 动态点评 | 北京时间 3月 20日(周四)凌晨,联储如期按兵不动,基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%,4月起,缩表速度从 600亿美元/月放缓至 400 亿美元/月: 增长预测下调、通胀预测上调以及不确定性较高导致联储维持 2025年2次 降息的指引。决议声明中,对经济前景的风险评估从大体均衡调整为不确定 性上升。虽然鲍威尔强调联储不着急调整利率,但表达了对经济不确定性高 度关注,若经济增速进一步放缓,联储降息节奏或提前。不过受制于通胀, 大幅降息或受到限制(参见《3月 FOMC 预览:关注增长不确定性》, 2025/3/18)。降息预期升温,美债收益率回落,美元回落,美股上涨。截至 北京时间凌晨 4:00,相较于会前,市场预期 2025年累计降息幅度上升 6bp 至 65bp;2年、10年期美债收益率分别下行 9bp、7bp 至 3.97%、4.25%; 美元指数下跌 0.3%至 103.5;标普 500、纳指、道指分别上涨 0.6%、0.7%、 ...