Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $159.87 per ADS [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of HKD 4.7 billion, up 81% year-over-year, and net profit of HKD 2.1 billion, up 107% year-over-year, driven by accelerated overseas customer acquisition and increased trading volumes in the Hong Kong and US stock markets [1][5]. - The company has achieved one-third of its annual customer acquisition target in Q1 2025, adding 260,000 new funded accounts, a 48% increase year-over-year [2]. - The trading activity in the Hong Kong and US markets remains robust, with total trading volume reaching HKD 3.22 trillion, a 140% increase year-over-year [3]. - Continuous innovation in products and services, including AI-driven investment assistants and new trading options, is strengthening the company's brand and product capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company expects to achieve net profits of HKD 7.45 billion, with an EPS of HKD 6.52, reflecting a 20% to 26% upward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][7]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is HKD 18.02 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 32.62% [7]. Customer Acquisition - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, with Hong Kong remaining the primary source of new customers, supported by a rebound in the stock market and IPO activities [2]. Trading Activity - The trading environment is favorable, with a significant increase in trading volumes and customer asset turnover rates, indicating strong market engagement [3]. Innovation and Product Development - The company is focused on enhancing its service offerings, including the introduction of new trading products in various markets, which is crucial for attracting overseas customers [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 10.12 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in 1Q25, with revenue of RMB 7.015 billion (-21.9% year-on-year, +11% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of RMB 1.48 billion (-8.4% year-on-year, +169% quarter-on-quarter) [1]. - The improvement is attributed to stable core business performance and the recognition of upfront payments from Lp(a) and MAT2A small molecule BD transactions [2]. - The company is expected to see quarterly revenue and profit growth throughout the year, with a conservative estimate of approximately RMB 4 billion in annual core profits [2]. - The EGFR ADC clinical trials are progressing rapidly both domestically and internationally, indicating strong potential for overseas expansion [3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with significant BD progress and innovative platforms, enhancing its potential for international collaboration [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s EPS is projected to be RMB 0.49, 0.50, and 0.57 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target PE of 19 times for 2025 [5]. - The estimated revenue for 2025 is RMB 31.101 billion, with a net profit of RMB 5.694 billion [19]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in sales expense ratio from 33% in 1Q24 to 24% in 1Q25, indicating improved cost management [2]. Key Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 87.769 billion, with a closing price of HKD 7.62 as of May 29 [9]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 7.21%, 8.35%, and 8.10% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] - The target price is set at HKD 71.20 [8][9] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached a historical high of RMB 111.3 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [1] - Adjusted operating profit increased by 114% year-on-year to RMB 9.96 billion [1] - The IoT and automotive business showed strong gross margins, with the IoT revenue growing by 58.7% year-on-year to RMB 32.3 billion [2] - The automotive segment's gross margin improved to 23.2%, benefiting from increased scale [3] - The smartphone average selling price (ASP) reached a record high of RMB 1,211, with a gross margin of 12.4% [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 111.3 billion, a 47% increase year-on-year [1] - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 9.96 billion, up 114% year-on-year [1] - IoT revenue reached RMB 32.3 billion, with a gross margin of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Automotive Business - The company delivered 75,869 units of the SU7 series in Q1 [3] - The automotive segment reported a gross margin of 23.2%, exceeding expectations [3] - The first SUV, YU7, is expected to launch in July 2025, with a focus on consumer feedback post-launch [3] Smartphone Segment - The smartphone ASP reached RMB 1,211, marking a 5.8% year-on-year increase [4] - The smartphone business maintained a gross margin of 12.4% [4] - The launch of self-developed chips is anticipated to enhance the company's high-end market share [4] Valuation and Future Outlook - The target price of HKD 71.20 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting the growth potential in IoT and automotive sectors [5][17] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 40.99 billion, with a projected growth rate of 50.06% [7][15] - The report anticipates a continued increase in IoT revenue, projecting a 24% year-on-year growth for 2025 [2]

证券研究报告 策略 港股重估下 A 股定价如何演绎? 华泰研究 2025年5月29日|中国内地 专题研究 来自宁德时代港股上市的思考 -- 估值体系的国际化接轨 去年以来,美的集团、宁德时代为代表的一批A股优质标的赴港二次上市, 吸引了全球投资者的关注。5月20日,宁德时代港股上市,募资总额达410 亿港元,其中基石投资者认购占比近 50%,截至最新交易日仍较 A 股存在 大幅溢价,反映了国际资本对国内稀缺性资产的高度认可。我们认为,当前 A 股核心资产在全球 PB-ROE 视角下仍低估,且外资配置力度处于相对低 位,随着全球资金在美元和非美资产间 "再平衡",外资在港股对核心资产 进行的系统性重估,或对Ａ股形成正向传导机制,带动核心资产估值修复。 近期龙头企业赴港二次上市提振 A 股表现 2024年以来,港股IPO市场呈现回暖态势,且由于部分大体量内地龙头赴 港二次上市,慕资规模甚至超过Ａ股市场。其中,美的集团/赤峰黄金/宁德 时代/恒瑞医药等行业龙头基石投资者认购占比较高,港股二次上市后表现 较强,甚至出现 AH 溢价的倒挂,并通过流动性外溢等传导至对应 A 股和相 关板块的上涨。复盘来看,通常港股二次上 ...

证券研究报告 固收视角 贸易法庭叫停特朗普关税：后续和影响 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 29 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 吴靖，PhD 陶冶 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 SAC No. S0570522040001 taoye019714@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 哪些关税被叫停？ 该裁决取消了特朗普本次施加的绝大多数关税——全球 10%的统一关税+特定国家的对等关税+芬太尼关税。(Court Nos. 25-00066 & 25-00077) 不过，特朗普此前通过"232 条款"和"301 条款"征收的关税不受影响，其中包括特朗普 1.0 阶段对中国征收的关税， 对钢铁、铝、汽车及零部件征收的关税等。 裁决何时执行？特朗普政府如何应对? 1.裁决立即生效（原文 The challenged Tariff Orders will be vacated and their operation permanently ...

证券研究报告 策略 港股重估下 A 股定价如何演绎？ 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 29 日│中国内地 专题研究 来自宁德时代港股上市的思考——估值体系的国际化接轨 去年以来，美的集团、宁德时代为代表的一批 A 股优质标的赴港二次上市， 吸引了全球投资者的关注。5 月 20 日，宁德时代港股上市，募资总额达 410 亿港元，其中基石投资者认购占比近 50%，截至最新交易日仍较 A 股存在 大幅溢价，反映了国际资本对国内稀缺性资产的高度认可。我们认为，当前 A 股核心资产在全球 PB-ROE 视角下仍低估，且外资配置力度处于相对低 位，随着全球资金在美元和非美资产间 "再平衡"，外资在港股对核心资产 进行的系统性重估，或对 A 股形成正向传导机制，带动核心资产估值修复。 近期龙头企业赴港二次上市提振 A 股表现 2024 年以来，港股 IPO 市场呈现回暖态势，且由于部分大体量内地龙头赴 港二次上市，募资规模甚至超过 A 股市场。其中，美的集团/赤峰黄金/宁德 时代/恒瑞医药等行业龙头基石投资者认购占比较高，港股二次上市后表现 较强，甚至出现 AH 溢价的倒挂，并通过流动性外溢等传导至对应 A 股和相 关板块 ...

证券研究报告 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 维持目标价 71.2 港币，维持"买入"评级 港股通 IoT/汽车业务毛利率超预期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 29 日│中国香港 | 消费电子 | 小米 1Q25 收入同比增长 47%至 1113 亿元，创历史新高，调整后营业利润 （毛利-三项费用）同比增长 114%至 99.6 亿元。1Q25 IoT 和汽车业务毛利 率表现出色，手机 ASP 创历史新高，高端化持续推进。5/22，公司正式发布 玄戒 O1/T1 芯片，我们认为自研芯片是品牌厂商构建生态的重要一步，看好 小米高端手机市场份额持续扩大。基于 SOTP 估值法，维持公司目标价 71.2 港币，包含手机 xAIoT（44.9 港币），汽车（26.3 港币）。维持"买入"。 亮点#1：IoT 毛利率超预期，收入创历史新高 1Q25，IoT 与生活消费品业务收入和毛利率再创历史新高，收入同比+58.7% 达到 323 亿元，毛利率达到 25.2%（YoY: +5.4pct；QoQ: +4.7pct）。原因或 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 70.94 [7][21]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 10.9% year-on-year to RMB 32.6 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate by 1.2% [1]. - The gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 54.6%, and adjusted net profit increased by 4.4% year-on-year to RMB 4.58 billion, exceeding expectations by 3% [1]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization for the company's AI product, Keling, which is expected to generate over RMB 1 billion in revenue by 2025 [2]. - The e-commerce segment showed robust growth with a GMV increase of 15% year-on-year, supported by a significant rise in the number of new merchants and active buyers [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue increase of 12.5% for 2025, with live streaming expected to grow by 8%, and advertising revenue projected to rise by 13% [1][4]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 have been slightly revised down to RMB 17.775 billion, reflecting a lower contribution from live streaming revenue [4][18]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast for 2023 to 2027, indicating a steady growth trajectory in both revenue and adjusted net profit [6][19]. Business Segments - The Keling AI product has seen strong growth in both user scale and ARPU, contributing approximately 70% of its total revenue from professional users [2][12]. - The advertising revenue for Q1 grew by 8% year-on-year, with significant contributions from external circulation advertising [3][14]. - The overseas business achieved operational profitability for the first time, with Brazil being a key market driving growth [16]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a target price of HKD 70.94, based on the expected acceleration in live streaming and Keling's future revenue contributions [4][21]. - The valuation reflects a discount compared to peers, primarily due to slower revenue growth relative to competitors [21][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Hold" [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 total revenue was 95.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, but below the consensus estimate of 103.9 billion RMB. The non-GAAP net profit was 16.9 billion RMB, corresponding to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 17.7%, down 17.6 percentage points year-on-year, and also below the consensus estimate of 26.8% [1] - The underperformance in earnings is attributed to increased investments in domestic e-commerce to address market share disadvantages and improve the merchant ecosystem, as well as aggressive investments in overseas e-commerce to accelerate the transition to a semi-managed model [1][2] - The company has launched a "100 billion support" plan that may continue to impact profitability in the short to medium term, alongside geopolitical risks that add uncertainty [1] Domestic E-commerce - In Q1 2025, the company's online marketplace service revenue grew by 14.8% to 48.7 billion RMB, outperforming the consensus estimate of 13.5% growth. However, transaction service revenue increased by only 5.8% to 47 billion RMB, falling short of the expected 56 billion RMB due to aggressive merchant support and commission reductions [2] - Management shared specific initiatives for merchant support, including the "10 billion reduction" plan and the "100 billion support" plan, which aim to stabilize sales and reduce operating costs for small and medium-sized merchants [2] - The company expects that the adjustment in commercialization levels and the establishment of a healthy merchant ecosystem will take time, leading to continued pressure on revenue growth and profit release in the short term [2] Overseas E-commerce - During Q1 2025 to Q2 2025, the company's overseas e-commerce business, Temu, is transitioning its merchant supply model from fully managed to semi-managed to mitigate tariff risks. However, fluctuating policies are expected to negatively impact its fully managed business in the U.S. [3] - The company anticipates that Temu will require further investment to help quality merchants establish overseas warehouse capabilities and explore growth opportunities in non-U.S. regions, delaying the timeline for profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with non-GAAP net profit estimates reduced by 37.2%, 25.3%, and 20.3% to 80.1 billion RMB, 106.5 billion RMB, and 127.7 billion RMB respectively [4][19] - The new target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 102.3 USD, down from 144.5 USD, with valuations for domestic e-commerce, Duoduo Maicai, and Temu at 74.6 USD, 4.9 USD, and 22.8 USD respectively [4][24] - The valuation multiples have been adjusted downwards due to lower visibility on profit growth during the investment period and increased competition in the sector [4][24]

证券研究报告 欢聚 (JOYY US) | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 28 日│美国 | 互联网 | 公司发布 25Q1 财报，25Q1 实现收入 4.94 亿美元（VA 预期为 4.87 亿美元）， yoy-12.44%。25Q1 经调整归母净利润 0.63 亿美元（VA 一致预期 0.52 亿 美元。收入符合市场预期，利润略超预期主因 All other 减亏节奏加快。公 司直播业务调整持续，非直播业务中广告业务增速显著，公司谨慎控制费用， 股东回报积极，截至 5 月 23 日今年累计分红与回购 7160 万美元，我们给 予目标价 60.1 美元，维持"买入"评级。 BIGO 直播业务调整接近尾声，广告业务持续增长 25Q1 公司 BIGO 板块实现收入 4.32 亿美元，yoy-14.5%。由于公司向发达 国家转移战略重心，叠加 24 年 12 月产品下架用户尚处恢复期，直播业务 收入本季度略显承压。25Q1 BIGO 直播业务收入 3.52 亿美元，yoy-20.5%， MAU 2.6 亿（yoy-6.1% ...