Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Music is "Buy" [7][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent Music's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by robust growth in paid user numbers and an increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the industry, with strong integration capabilities and potential for margin expansion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Tencent Music reported revenue of RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 24 billion, up 43% year-on-year [1][4]. - Online music revenue grew by 16% to RMB 58.3 billion, with subscription revenue increasing by 18% to RMB 40.3 billion [2]. User Growth and ARPPU - The number of online paying users increased by 13.4% year-on-year to 121 million, aligning with expectations [2]. - ARPPU rose to RMB 11.1, reflecting a sequential increase driven by strong growth in SVIP (Super VIP) memberships [2][3]. Profitability and Margin Outlook - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 43.6%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates further improvement in gross margin to 45% by 2025, supported by growth in paid users and a decrease in revenue share from live streaming [3]. Valuation and Target Price - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to RMB 86.7 billion, RMB 95.4 billion, and RMB 107.4 billion, respectively [4][11]. - The target price is set at USD 19.10 or HKD 68.43, based on a 25x PE multiple for 2025 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.58 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 13.58 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and a net profit of RMB 1.24 billion, up 20.2% year-on-year, which aligns closely with previous expectations [1][2]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its running matrix and enhancing its competitive edge through the main brand and professional sports brands like Saucony, which continues to show high growth [2][3]. - The company is accelerating its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy, planning to reclaim distribution rights for approximately 400-500 stores, which is expected to enhance brand influence and market competitiveness [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 43.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the high gross margin from Saucony [3]. - The net profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points to 9.1% during the period [3]. - The company maintained a healthy operating capital turnover of 87 days, with inventory turnover days reduced by 22 days to 68 days [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The main brand's revenue increased by 3.2% to RMB 12.33 billion, while the professional sports segment, including Saucony and Merrell, saw a significant revenue increase of 57.2% to RMB 1.25 billion, with Saucony's revenue surpassing RMB 1 billion [2]. - Online e-commerce revenue grew approximately 20%, accounting for over 30% of total revenue [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 8.0% and 10.5% to RMB 1.37 billion and RMB 1.53 billion, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at RMB 1.71 billion [4]. - The target price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.3x for 2025, based on the company's strong brand positioning in the running sector and the synergy from multiple brands [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for H-shares and "Accumulate" for A-shares, both maintained [6][34]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 389.59 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 9.03 billion, up 10.5% year-on-year, aligning with previous profit forecasts [1][5]. - The dividend per share for 2024 is set at RMB 0.41, reflecting a 20.1% increase, with a payout ratio of 60%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year [1][5]. - The launch of DeepSeek is expected to enhance revenue growth in cloud computing and data center businesses, marking a new development cycle for the company [1][4]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The total number of mobile and broadband users reached 470 million, with a net increase of 19.52 million users. Revenue from connectivity services grew by 1.5% year-on-year, maintaining a solid performance [2]. - Cloud revenue reached RMB 68.6 billion, a 17.1% increase year-on-year, while data center revenue was RMB 25.9 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company is constructing large-scale intelligent computing centers in Hohhot and Shanghai, with plans for multiple integrated hubs [2]. Financial Metrics - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved by 0.4 percentage points to 5.8%, and the net profit margin increased by 0.27 percentage points to 5.29% due to enhanced operational efficiency [3]. - Capital expenditures decreased by 17% year-on-year to RMB 61.37 billion, while investments in intelligent computing increased by 19% [3]. - The projected capital expenditure for 2025 is RMB 55 billion, with a 28% increase in intelligent computing investments [3]. Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates continued profit growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 10.06 billion, RMB 11.07 billion, and RMB 12.02 billion respectively [4]. - The target price for A-shares is set at RMB 7.62, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.31 for 2025, while H-shares are targeted at HKD 13.46 with a PB of 1.0 [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 123.83 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 40.9 billion and a net loss of RMB 5.8 billion in 2024, with a significant recovery projected in 2025, where revenue is anticipated to reach RMB 85.6 billion and a reduced net loss of RMB 2.0 billion [1][5]. - The company is optimistic about its new vehicle performance in 2025, with a strong new car cycle expected to drive sales growth and scale effects [1][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved record revenue of RMB 161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59% [2]. - The automotive gross margin improved to 10% in Q4 2024, marking six consecutive quarters of improvement [2]. - The company expects to deliver between 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 317% to 326% [1][2]. Product Development - The company launched the updated G6 and G9 models, with significant pre-order numbers indicating strong market interest [3]. - Multiple new models are set to be released throughout 2025, including the G7 and MONA M03, which are expected to contribute to doubling annual sales [3]. Global Expansion - The company plans to accelerate its global expansion, targeting entry into 60 countries and regions by the end of 2025, with over 300 overseas sales outlets [4]. - The company is also exploring new growth avenues through flying cars and robotics, with plans for production in 2026 [4]. Valuation and Estimates - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 85.6 billion, RMB 97.7 billion, and RMB 124.7 billion respectively, with a focus on maintaining strong sales growth [5][11]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 123.83 based on improved operational performance and new product cycles [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.49 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 1.72 billion for 2H24, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.8%, although this was 6% below consensus expectations due to adjustments in its beauty business. However, the core imaging business exceeded expectations by 7% [1]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2H24 was HKD 310 million, surpassing expectations by 11%, and the full-year adjusted net profit reached HKD 590 million, hitting the upper limit of the performance guidance [1]. - The company is focusing on high-margin imaging products and strategically adjusting its beauty business, leading to an increase in gross margin by 7.5 percentage points in 2H24 [2]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance productivity and drive global expansion, which is expected to unlock significant long-term growth potential [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The core imaging and design product business achieved a revenue of HKD 2.09 billion in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 57.1%, driven by user growth and increased paid penetration [2]. - The global Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 266 million by the end of 2024, exceeding the expected 260 million, with paid subscription users numbering 12.61 million, surpassing the guidance of 12.34 million [2]. AI and Globalization - The company is accelerating the commercialization of AI-driven productivity applications, with its product "Meitu Design Studio" generating nearly HKD 200 million in revenue, and the "Kaipai" app achieving a subscription penetration rate of 12.8% in its first year [3]. - The overseas market MAU grew by 21.7% in 2024, with the company’s products frequently topping app charts in various countries. The overseas market revenue increased by 42% year-over-year, accounting for 32% of total revenue [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of HKD 4.3 billion, HKD 5.4 billion, and HKD 6.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of HKD 900 million, HKD 1.21 billion, and HKD 1.59 billion for the same years [5][12]. - The report suggests a valuation premium due to the company's unique position in AI commercialization, leading to a revised 2025 PE ratio of 35x, with a target price of HKD 7.49 [5][12].

Macroeconomic Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a "watchful" stance during the March FOMC meeting, likely keeping interest rates unchanged due to unclear data trends and inflation concerns[1] - Recent economic data has shown a significant weakening in growth expectations, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 10%[2] - Non-farm payrolls in February increased by 151,000, below expectations, but the six-month average remains at 191,000, indicating some resilience in the labor market[2] Inflation and Economic Projections - February's core CPI fell to 0.23% month-on-month, but the implied core PCE for February is still high at 0.3%, suggesting potential inflationary pressures ahead[2] - Market institutions have downgraded the 2025 Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.6%, down from the previous 2.1%[3] - The Fed is likely to adjust its growth forecasts downward while raising inflation predictions, reflecting increased uncertainty in economic conditions[3] Future Guidance and Policy Implications - Powell is expected to emphasize the uncertainty surrounding growth and provide open guidance on future interest rate paths, maintaining a forecast of two rate cuts in 2025[3] - The Fed may announce a pause in balance sheet reduction during the March meeting, with potential delays in stopping the reduction until the second half of 2025 due to debt ceiling concerns[3] - The probability of a recession remains low, but the risk of inflation rising could lead to a reassessment of monetary policy later in the year[4] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include unexpected inflation increases that could lead to a more hawkish Fed stance and potential escalation of tariffs under Trump's policies[5]

证券研究报告 策略 资金透视：资金面仍有一定增量 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 18 日│中国内地 策略周报 核心观点 散户资金：上周散户资金净流出 129 亿元，净流入有色金属、钢铁、公用 事业等行业，净流出电子、机械设备、汽车等行业； 杠杆资金：上周资金净流入 182 亿元，融资交易活跃度边际回升至 9.9%， 净流入有色金属、电子、汽车等行业，流出银行、商业贸易、建筑等行业； 私募资金：私募排排网显示，3 月，基金经理 A 股信心指数环比上行，上周 基金调研仍集中在科技成长方向，但在医药行业调研密度有所加强； 上周 A 股先抑后扬，站上 3400 点关口，资金层面我们关注到，在历经约两 周盘整后，资金面再度出现一定增量：1）净流入的力量有所增强，边际变 化来自于融资资金（融资资金继续净流入，上周融资余额创去年 9 月以来新 高）、ETF（赎回量大幅减少）及私募（2 月底主观多头策略型私募平均仓 位达 79%，创 2024 年以来新高）；2）配置型外资继续净流入，被动配置型 仍是主力；3）上周非美国本地的基金大幅流出美股，这部分资金对新兴市 场转为净流入，继续关注全球资金的再平衡。 关注点 1：交易型资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Dong'e Ejiao [8] Core Views - Dong'e Ejiao is expected to maintain strong growth momentum in 2024, with projected revenues, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of RMB 5.921 billion, RMB 1.557 billion, and RMB 1.442 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 25%, 35%, and 33% [1][5] - The company has implemented comprehensive reforms since 2022, focusing on "four restructurings" to enhance sales and profits, which supports a positive outlook for the company's future growth [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a high dividend of RMB 1.554 billion, accounting for 99.7% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, reflecting strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The sales revenue of Dong'e Ejiao and its related products reached RMB 5.54 billion in 2024, up 27% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 73.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenues of RMB 1.59 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 410 million, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 2.171 billion, which is higher than the net profit, indicating strong operational efficiency [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company revised its stock incentive plan in January 2025, raising performance targets, including an increase in the exercise price from RMB 24.98 to RMB 37.22 per share and enhancing return on equity (ROE) targets for 2025-2027 [3] - The "four restructurings" and the "1238" development strategy are being actively implemented to focus on the core business of Ejiao and promote long-term healthy development [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be RMB 1.840 billion, RMB 2.230 billion, and RMB 2.577 billion respectively, with an upward revision for 2025 [5] - The target price is set at RMB 85.72, based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting a premium due to the expected continuous improvement in revenue and profit driven by strategic initiatives [5][9]

挚文集团 (MOMO US) 核心业务持续转型，重视股东回报 证券研究报告 账面现金充沛，潜在股东回报可观 24 全年公司经营性现金净流入 16.4 亿元，年底公司现金及现金等价物、短 期存款、长期存款、受限制现金合计达到 147 亿元，借款合计 43 亿元，净 现金 104 亿元（约合 14.5 亿美金）。充沛的现金储备下，公司积极通过分红 和回购提升股东回报。公司宣告将于 2025 年 4 月 30 日派发约 5000 万美金 的特别现金股息；截至 2025 年 3 月 12 日，公司股票回购计划仍剩余 2.22 亿美金额度（有效期至 2027 年 3 月 31 日）。以 3 月 17 日市值（约 12 亿 美金）计算，分红和回购合计潜在回报率达 22.67%。 上调至"买入"评级 考虑到公司核心业务短期内仍面临转型压力，我们下调 25/26/27 年 Non-GAAP 归母净利润预测至 13.20/13.88/14.56 亿元（下调 30%/30%/-）。 我们认为公司虽然尚在业务调整期，但"现金牛"属性突出，经营性净现金 维持流入状态，具备可持续性。故采用 DCF 估值，目标价 11.69 美元（WA ...

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 比亚迪闪充技术或推动高压超充趋势 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 18 日│中国内地 动态点评 3 月 17 日，比亚迪发布"超级 e 平台"，成为全球首个量产的乘用车 1000V 高压平台，公司同时发布兆瓦闪充技术，闪充电池内阻降低 50%，充电电 流最大达 1000A，充电倍率最高达 10C，实现一秒充电续航 2 公里。我们 推测该技术的实现，需要电池、车、桩三位一体的技术配套升级，带来碳包 覆材料、薄涂布设备、碳化硅、高压保护元器件、液冷超充桩等环节增量需 求。比亚迪此次新技术发布，不仅提升其自身竞争力，还将形成示范效应， 助推高压超充产业趋势再进一步。 10C 倍率+MW 级充电功率，大幅提升补能效率与用户体验 比亚迪首次量产乘用车全域 1000V 高压架构，整合 1000A 全球最大充电电 流、10C 倍率闪充技术及 1MW 充电功率，实现"闪充 5 分钟，畅行 400 公 里"的行业新高度，相较市场主流的 5C/6C 超充方案，实现充电速度接近 翻倍。基于此技术，公司预计未来配合规划建设 4000 座以上兆瓦闪充站。 我们认为 10C 超充技术配合双枪快充适配能力， ...