Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the Chinese industrial gas sector, characterized by both "cyclical and growth" attributes, with a potential upward inflection in performance as the gas industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The acceleration into controllable nuclear fusion opens a second growth curve [1] - The market perceives uncertainty in the company's performance growth due to macroeconomic pressures, but the report anticipates a recovery in gas prices by 2025, with significant potential for performance elasticity if the macro economy rebounds [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from stable growth in pipeline gas, which is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, and has a solid foundation for future growth with a projected cumulative signing volume of 3.5 million Nm³/h in 2024, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year [2] - Retail gas is viewed as an offensive attribute, with current gas prices at historical lows, and potential for significant performance elasticity if the economy recovers. The company is also developing new growth points in electronic specialty gases [3] - The controllable nuclear fusion equipment market presents a large future market space, with the company already winning bids for low-temperature nitrogen systems, showcasing its technical strength [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Pipeline Gas - The company's pipeline gas segment is characterized by its defensive nature, showing stable growth with minimal impact from macroeconomic fluctuations. The projected signing volume for 2024 is 3.5 million Nm³/h, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase, ensuring steady growth in pipeline gas volume [2] Retail Gas - The retail gas segment is seen as an aggressive growth area, with current gas prices at 469 RMB/ton, a 1.5% year-on-year increase, but down 76% from the peak in 2021. If the macro economy recovers, retail gas could provide substantial performance elasticity [3] Controllable Nuclear Fusion Equipment - The controllable nuclear fusion equipment sector is expected to open a second growth avenue for the company, with significant market potential. The company has already secured contracts for low-temperature nitrogen systems, indicating strong technical capabilities [3][17] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.067 billion RMB, 1.298 billion RMB, and 1.513 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 22%, and 17% [10][12]

11 月经济前瞻：需求偏疲软，生产有韧性 ——2025 年 11 月宏观数据预测 核心观点 预计 11 月我国经济运行呈现生产稳中有韧性，金融与需求仍承压的格局：生产端， 预计 11 月工业生产回升，服务业景气放缓，工业稳增长政策发力于装备制造等新 动能领域，出口修复快于内需，规模以上工业增加值预计保持在中高速区间，但 假期效应消退后服务业商务活动略有回落，部分线下消费和地产相关服务景气走 弱；需求端，社零增速继续回落，主要受以旧换新边际减弱、"双十一"前置及汽 车补贴退坡等因素压制；投资方面 1-11 月固定资产投资累计为负、制造业小幅正 增长、基建低位徘徊、房地产投资大幅下行；出口方面，在开拓非美市场和中美经 贸磋商改善预期支撑下保持小幅正增长、进口温和回升。价格端，猪肉与油价整 体震荡偏弱，叠加需求偏弱，使得通胀维持低位，CPI 同比仅小幅正增长，PPI 仍 为负但跌幅收窄，整体通胀弹性不大。金融数据上，社融和信贷新增规模均处偏 弱水平，人民币贷款同比少增、M2 和 M1 增速略有回落，反映实体融资需求不 足。 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 ❑ 消费：预计 11 月社零同比增速仍然承压 ...

Market Overview - On December 1, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.1%, the STAR 50 gained 0.72%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.31%. The Hang Seng Index also saw an increase of 0.67% [3]. Coal Industry Insights - The core viewpoint for the coal industry is that the price center is expected to rise, prioritizing value. The forecast for 2026 indicates stable domestic economic conditions with anticipated demand growth, while supply will balance between production limits and supply guarantees. The average price for thermal coal is projected to be between 800-850 RMB/ton, and for coking coal, it is expected to be between 1500-1700 RMB/ton [4]. - Key driving factors include growth in coal demand, weather changes, and fluctuations in coal inventory [4]. Textile and Apparel Industry Insights - The textile and apparel sector is optimistic about the recovery of the export chain and stable growth in domestic demand. The market lacks significant upward catalysts, but there is a strong belief in the recovery of export demand due to low inventory levels and stable overseas demand. Additionally, there are growth opportunities in niche domestic markets such as running, outdoor activities, and home textiles [5]. - The analysis includes a review of the textile industry's performance over the past three years and insights into the inventory situation of leading companies in the export chain [5]. Media and Entertainment Sector Insights - The film "Zootopia 2" has exceeded expectations with a cumulative box office of over 1.94 billion RMB within five days of its release as of December 1, 2025. This performance is seen as beneficial for film distribution, cinema chains, IP derivatives, and co-branded products [6]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in key distributors such as China Film and Huaxia Film, as well as cinema investment firms like Wanda Film and Hengdian Film. Additionally, IP derivative companies like Pop Mart and Miniso are noted as potential investment targets [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the green computing industry Core Insights - The green computing industry is analyzed from three dimensions: computing side (hardware and software), energy side, and application side, with a focus on liquid cooling technology, efficient algorithms, high-density servers, and long-term attention on integrated systems and green electricity [1][2][12] - The transition from energy efficiency optimization to a collaborative system of "computing power, electricity, and carbon power" is highlighted as a core trend in the intersection of technology and energy [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Research Framework - The demand for computing power is rapidly increasing due to global digitalization and intelligent transformation, with AI data center IT energy consumption projected to grow significantly from 55.1 TWh in 2024 to 146.2 TWh by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 44.8% [11][12] 2. Computing Side: Role of Algorithms, Devices, and Carriers - Green algorithms are essential for optimizing AI computing efficiency, focusing on reducing computational and storage costs while maintaining performance [2][30] - Data center hardware is identified as a major source of energy consumption, with significant advancements in chip architecture and high-density integration driving energy efficiency [2][12] - Efficient cooling technologies, such as liquid cooling, can significantly reduce Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) to below 1.3, with AI-driven management systems enhancing operational efficiency [2][12] 3. Energy Side: The End of Computing Lies in Electricity - The report emphasizes the need for energy structure transformation, with approximately 70% of China's data center energy coming from coal [2][12] - Innovations in energy management, such as integrated microgrids and direct connections to green electricity, are crucial for optimizing energy allocation [2][12] 4. Application Side: AI+ Achieving Green Empowerment Across Industries - AI computing is driving decarbonization across various sectors, with significant reductions in carbon emissions projected for energy (12%-22%), industry (13%-22%), transportation (10%-33%), and buildings (23%-40%) [2][3] - The development of edge computing and large models is expected to transform consumption patterns and production methods, leading to a comprehensive green and intelligent transition in the economy [3][12] 5. Summary and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key areas such as liquid cooling technology, efficient algorithms, and integrated energy systems as potential investment opportunities in the green computing sector [2][12]

Core Insights - The lithium industry has experienced significant oversupply since 2023, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to a decline in lithium prices from a peak of 590,000 to 60,000, resulting in some high-cost projects in Australia being shut down and major companies incurring losses [4] - Starting in 2025, energy storage demand is expected to exceed expectations, becoming the second growth curve for lithium demand, with projected demand for lithium carbonate reaching 345,000 tons in 2025 and potentially exceeding 500,000 tons next year, a tenfold increase compared to 50,000 tons in 2021 [4] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a watershed year for supply-demand reversal in the industry, with new applications in electric heavy trucks and ships, as well as technological advancements, likely to drive growth in power battery shipments [4] - The nickel industry has seen a continuous increase in supply due to investments by several Chinese companies in Indonesia, with supply expected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 59% of global supply, while demand remains primarily driven by stainless steel [4] - The cobalt industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota system, which has effectively raised cobalt prices [4] Lithium Industry - The lithium industry is currently in a state of supply-demand balance, with inventory levels decreasing [12] - The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries has seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 65% in output [21] - The demand for lithium is projected to reach 195,000 tons in 2026, with supply at approximately 197,700 tons, indicating a narrowing surplus [37] - Major companies to watch include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Yahua Group, which are expected to see rapid growth in their own mining operations [47] Nickel Industry - Nickel prices have been fluctuating since 2025, with LME and domestic inventories at high levels, indicating a supply surplus [50][56] - The overall supply of refined nickel in China is expected to be in surplus in 2025, with a projected supply of 379,000 tons against a demand of 361,000 tons [59] - Companies with a competitive edge in Indonesia, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, are recommended for investment [67] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices have been gradually increasing since the Democratic Republic of Congo's ban on mining exports, with the price of electrolytic cobalt reaching 405,000 yuan per ton [75] - Domestic cobalt salt production has increased, while imports of cobalt intermediate products have declined [78] - Investment opportunities in the cobalt sector include companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum [72]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, emphasizing a preference for value investments as the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [1]. Group 1: 2025 Review - Coal production in China showed a trend of high output in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline, with a total of 397.3 million tons produced from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2][16]. - Coal imports decreased significantly, with a total of 38.8 million tons imported from January to October, representing an 11% year-on-year decline [2][24]. - The overall coal consumption remained resilient, with a total of approximately 4.24 billion tons consumed from January to October, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3][44]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The coal price experienced a V-shaped recovery, with prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite rebounding to 816, 1670, and 930 CNY per ton respectively by November 28, 2025 [4]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance is maintained through policies that regulate production while ensuring supply stability [5]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The report forecasts coal consumption to reach 4.95 billion tons in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, driven primarily by demand from the power and chemical sectors [5]. - It is anticipated that coal production will slightly increase to 4.87 billion tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-dividend coal companies and those showing signs of recovery from financial distress, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - "Zootopia 2" has exceeded box office expectations, with a total box office forecast of 42.5 billion, driven by strong performance during a weak release period [2] - The film's high screen share of 76.8% and a weekend box office of 7.3 billion indicate strong audience interest, surpassing the first installment of "Zootopia" [2] - The overall film market in 2025 shows a recovery trend, with significant contributions from key holiday periods, particularly the Spring Festival and summer seasons [4][11] Summary by Sections - **Box Office Performance**: As of December 1, 2025, "Zootopia 2" has grossed over 19.4 billion in its first five days, with projections indicating a total of 42.5 billion. The film's performance is compared favorably to previous hits like "Nezha" [2] - **Market Trends**: The film industry has seen a 16.20% year-on-year increase in total box office revenue from January to October 2025, with the Spring Festival box office reaching a record high of 95.14 billion, up 18.69% [4] - **Future Outlook**: The 2026 film market is expected to continue its recovery, with box office predictions ranging from 481 to 580 billion, driven by a strong lineup of films for the New Year and Spring Festival [11][12]

Group 1: Company Insights - The report highlights Ice Wheel Environment (000811) as a leading player in industrial refrigeration equipment, driven by AIDC and nuclear power business growth [5] - The company is experiencing accelerated demand in the data center sector due to a surge in AI computing needs, having served numerous domestic and international data center clients [5] - Revenue projections for Ice Wheel Environment are estimated at 6,959 million, 7,849 million, and 8,637 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.9%, 12.8%, and 10.0% [5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The cosmetics industry is characterized by stability and new developments, with a focus on strong brand groups that can enhance market share and profit realization [6] - The medical beauty sector is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, particularly in segments like PDRN, recombinant collagen, and hair loss treatment, which are anticipated to have a better competitive landscape [6] - The light industry is witnessing a trend of companies accelerating their overseas expansion, leading to higher profit margins and improved competitive dynamics in foreign markets [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic report indicates that recent fluctuations in the US stock market are attributed to a combination of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and uncertainties in industry outlooks, but the medium-term trend remains positive [7] - The strategy report suggests focusing on large-cap consumer stocks, particularly in food and beverage, travel services, and transportation sectors, as these are expected to perform well in December due to improved liquidity and stable earnings [8] - The light industry report emphasizes the shift from passive to active overseas market exploration, highlighting opportunities in capacity, product, and brand expansion [10]

- The report discusses the microstructure timing model, which evaluates market timing based on microstructure indicators such as informed trader activity. This model identifies market trends by analyzing the activity of informed traders, which is positively correlated with market performance. The report highlights that informed trader activity increased alongside the equity market's rise this week, indicating cautious optimism for the future[17][14] - The report also mentions the BARRA style factor model, which analyzes the performance of various style factors in the equity market. This week, fundamental factors showed reduced dispersion, with a preference for value over growth. High-beta stocks and those with strong short-term momentum outperformed, while small-cap stocks gained favor as large-cap factors retreated[24][25] - The report evaluates the turnover factor, which measures the impact of trading activity on stock performance. This week, the turnover factor showed a positive return of 0.2%, indicating that stocks with higher turnover rates performed better[25] - The momentum factor, which captures the tendency of stocks with strong recent performance to continue performing well, exhibited a significant positive return of 1.0% this week, reflecting strong market momentum[25] - The BP value factor, representing book-to-price ratio, showed a positive return of 0.1%, suggesting that stocks with higher book-to-price ratios were slightly favored by the market[25] - The non-linear size factor and size factor, which measure the impact of market capitalization on stock performance, both showed negative returns of -0.3% and -0.5%, respectively, indicating a shift in market preference towards smaller-cap stocks[25] - The report highlights that the microstructure timing model and style factor models suggest a favorable environment for quantitative strategies, with significant room for growth in quantitative private equity funds, estimated at an additional RMB 400-600 billion[14][24]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 49.2%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating economic improvement[1] - The composite PMI output index is at 49.7%, suggesting overall stability in production and business activities[1] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting stability in manufacturing production[2] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.1%, indicating expansion, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs are at 49.8% and 49.4%, respectively, both in contraction territory[1] - New orders index is at 49.2%, showing a low-level recovery in market demand, but still weaker than production levels[3] - New export orders index increased to 47.6%, a rise of 1.7 percentage points, with significant improvements across various sectors[3] Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating rising input costs[7] - The factory price index is at 48.2%, reflecting a narrowing decline in output prices[7] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, a drop of 0.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in non-manufacturing activities[8] - The construction business activity index improved to 49.6%, showing low-level recovery in the construction sector[8] Overall Outlook - The overall economic activity is stabilizing, with expectations for continued upward momentum into December, supporting the annual GDP growth target of around 5%[1][9] - The report highlights the resilience of exports, with a 10.0% year-on-year increase in container throughput at ports in November[4]