证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 出版 果麦文化(301052) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 11 日 图书出版主业高增，《三国的星空》年内可期 ——24 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 投资要点 公司年报及一季报业绩符合预期，主业带动下 24Q4 及 25Q1 持续增长。 2024 全年营收 5.82 亿元（YoY +21.76%），归母净利润 0.41 亿元（YoY - 23.87%），扣非净利润 0.37 亿元（YoY -33.77%）；25Q1 营收 1.24 亿元（YoY +33.14%），归母净亏损 0.02 亿元，扣非净亏损 0.02 亿元，缩亏明显。 公司业绩主要依赖于营销驱动，24Q4 的投放成本前置自然引出 25Q1 营收增长。 成本端，25Q1 销售费用、管理费用、财务费用之和占营收比为 44.12%，同比下 降 4.4%，显示出公司在费用控制上取得了一定成效。 25 年将持续发力粉丝经济，深耕明星版权书等垂直赛道。 教辅业务异军突起，码洋同比激增 14 倍至 2.86 亿元；粉丝经济领域，林俊杰纪 念书首月码洋 4000 万(24 年 12 月)，依托跨界资源整合（QQ 音乐+天猫+社 ...

图书出版主业高增，《三国的星空》年内可期 ——24 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 投资要点 公司年报及一季报业绩符合预期，主业带动下 24Q4 及 25Q1 持续增长。 2024 全年营收 5.82 亿元（YoY +21.76%），归母净利润 0.41 亿元（YoY - 23.87%），扣非净利润 0.37 亿元（YoY -33.77%）；25Q1 营收 1.24 亿元（YoY +33.14%），归母净亏损 0.02 亿元，扣非净亏损 0.02 亿元，缩亏明显。 公司业绩主要依赖于营销驱动，24Q4 的投放成本前置自然引出 25Q1 营收增长。 成本端，25Q1 销售费用、管理费用、财务费用之和占营收比为 44.12%，同比下 降 4.4%，显示出公司在费用控制上取得了一定成效。 25 年将持续发力粉丝经济，深耕明星版权书等垂直赛道。 教辅业务异军突起，码洋同比激增 14 倍至 2.86 亿元；粉丝经济领域，林俊杰纪 念书首月码洋 4000 万(24 年 12 月)，依托跨界资源整合（QQ 音乐+天猫+社交媒 体）、内容升级（图书礼盒）及粉丝分层运营（情怀/技术/收藏粉）实现破圈；法 律社科（罗翔系列）、心理自 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：等待供给侧约束落地 行业评级：看好 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年5月11日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价 格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 342 | | 1 . | 9% | -0 . | 3% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 846 | | 2 . | 0% | -2 . | 3% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 169 | | 1 . | 8% | 3 . | 2% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , | 184 | | 1 . | 8% | 4 . | 7% | | | | SW特钢指数 | 3 , | 922 | | 1 . | 6% | 4 . | 3% | | | | SW冶钢原料指数 | 2 , | 360 | | 2 . | 2% | 4 - . | 3% | | | 螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm ...

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...

证券研究报告 静待花开终有时，药中银行反转至 ——中药一季报业绩综述 | 分析师 | 吴天昊 | 分析师 | 丁健行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | wutianhao@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | dingjianxing@stocke.com.cn | | 电话 | 13262686562 | 电话 | 19921317891 | | 证书编号 | S1230523120004 | 证书编号 | S1230524050003 | 1 摘要 1、核心观点：二季度推荐中药板块 中药一季报压力均较大，但二季度有望迎来业绩拐点，板块行情或提前于业绩拐点显现而启动 2、一季报综述 3、核心指标跟踪 4、投资建议 行业评级：看好 2025年5月11日 2 中药一季报压力均较大，主动提质增效实现业绩增长 渠道库存有所降低，盈利能力有望持续提升 机构持仓偏轻，纯内需的中药在美国关税政策下有望迎来资金青睐 板块估值低于2021年以来均值 流感数据趋于平稳，收入增长压力环比减轻 中药材价格指数回落，毛利率压力有望缓解 进攻方向1-毛利率有望改善的顺周期老字号：东阿阿胶、同仁堂 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company has shown impressive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, driven by the strong performance of its vintage raw liquor series, which has seen both volume and price increases [2][3] - The company aims to continue its "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing product offerings [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 235.78 billion (up 16.41%) and a net profit of 55.17 billion (up 20.22%). Q1 2025 revenue was 91.46 billion (up 10.38%) with a net profit of 23.30 billion (up 12.78%) [8] - The vintage raw liquor series contributed significantly to revenue growth, with sales volume increasing by 11.99% and average price per ton rising by 4.75% [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company operates multiple brands and flavor types, including ancient well tribute liquor, Yellow Crane Tower, and others, with a focus on both local and national markets [2] - The company plans to implement a "three-channel project" to enhance sales, reduce inventory, and stabilize prices [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue growth is projected to be 12% in 2025 and 11% in 2026, with net profit growth also adjusted to 12% for both years. The EPS for 2025-2027 is forecasted at 11.71, 13.13, and 14.87 respectively [3][4] - The company maintains a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its earnings growth [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, with a "positive" outlook for the sector [2][54]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in commercial volume and profit improvement, driven by strong performance in the innovative drug sector from January 2, 2024, to April 30, 2025, with significant stock price increases for various companies [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing policy-driven growth and global revaluation of the innovative drug industry, supported by favorable domestic policies and international competitiveness [4][31]. Summary by Sections Review: Commercial Volume and Profit Improvement - Stock prices are primarily driven by performance and clinical data, with notable increases in A-share and H-share biotech companies [4][14]. - R&D investment for 32 sample innovative drug companies reached 67.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.23% [4][18]. - The sales and R&D expense ratios for 22 sample innovative drug companies have been continuously optimized, leading to improved profit expectations for companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [4][25]. - The total product sales revenue for 17 commercialized innovative drug companies reached 91.3 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 35% year-on-year growth [4][30]. Outlook: Policy-Driven Global Revaluation - The report discusses the domestic policy framework that supports the innovative drug sector, including the establishment of a drug pricing mechanism and the implementation of supportive measures for innovative drug development [4][39]. - The international competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs is highlighted, with significant licensing deals and collaborations indicating a strong global presence [4][41]. Investment Strategy: Profitability + Internationalization + Major Products - The report recommends focusing on companies with potential for major product sales, such as Zebrutinib, which is expected to exceed 2.6 billion USD in sales in 2024 [5][48]. - It emphasizes the potential for global pricing of assets and the expected profitability improvements for companies like Innovent Biologics and Honor Pharma [5][48]. - The report suggests that the innovative drug sector is entering a phase of accelerated revenue and profit growth, driven by new product approvals and market access [5][47].

证券研究报告 分析师 郭双喜 盖文化 邮箱 guoshuangxi@stocke.com.cn gaiwenhua@stocke.come.cn 电话 19801116960 15380994183 证书编号 S1230521110002 S1230524090006 1、复盘 Ø 成长能力：季度波动，板块韧性延续。 2025Q1申万医药生物板块整体营业收入增速为-4.8%，归母净利润增速为 -12.2%，供给侧调整下，各子板块表现分化。在此背景下，原料药板块2025Q1收入增速-3.6%，归母净利润增速 达到10.5%，韧性凸显，得益于部分产品下游需求恢复、价格企稳，第二增长曲线发力。 2、投资策略 保持韧性、优选弹性 ——原料药2024及2025Q1业绩综述 行业评级：看好 2025年5月10日 2 投资要点 95% Ø 盈利能力：整体恢复，保持韧性。2024年主要原料药公司毛利率及净利率同比分别提升0.78pct、0.39pct （样本 公司剔除极值），盈利能力整体回升。25Q1主要原料药公司平均毛利率及净利率分别同比下滑0.64pct、1.87pct 。 主要因为产品结构调整、部分原料药24年同期价格 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company has shown impressive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, with the year-on-year revenue growth of 10.38% and net profit growth of 12.78% [8] - The company aims to continue its "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" strategy, focusing on expanding its market presence and product offerings [2][3] - The company has a diverse product portfolio with multiple brands and fragrance types, which supports its growth strategy [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 235.78 billion (up 16.41%) and a net profit of 55.17 billion (up 20.22%) [8] - Q1 2025 revenue reached 91.46 billion (up 10.38%) with a net profit of 23.30 billion (up 12.78%) [8] Product Performance - The revenue from the year-round original series was 180.86 billion (up 17.31%), contributing to 79.10% of total revenue [2] - The company has seen volume growth of 11.99% and price growth of 4.75% in the year-round original series [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the Central China region generated revenue of 201.51 billion (up 17.80%), accounting for 85.47% of total revenue [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to implement the "Three Communication Projects" to enhance sales, reduce inventory, expand channels, and stabilize prices [2] - The company has a total of 5,089 distributors, with significant growth in the Central China region [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow to 26,291 million in 2025, with a net profit of 6,190 million [4] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 11.71, with a P/E ratio of 14 [4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 地面兵装Ⅱ 光电股份(600184) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 10 日 2025 年一季度业绩显著修复，军民板块双轮驱动 ——光电股份点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，一季度业绩触底反弹 1）利润率方面：2024 年，公司毛利率为 9.8%，同比下降 6.9pcts；净利率- 15.9%，同比下降 19pcts，主要系防务产品交付延迟。2025Q1 单季度毛利率为 19.2%，同比上升 6.6pcts；净利率为 0.4%，同比上升 4.5pcts，盈利能力快速修 复。 2）期间费用方面：2024 期间费用率为 26.2%，同比增加 11.7pcts，其中销售费 用率为 0.7%，同比增加 0.3pct；管理费用率 12.9%，同比上升 5.2pct；研发费 用率 13.1%，同比提高 5.8pcts；财务费用率为-0.52%，同比增加 0.4pct。 ❑ 防务板块：信息化建设快速推进，精确制导需求不断释放 大型武器装备系统：该领域为主动交付军方使用的主战装备，公司为细分赛道龙 头，产品壁垒较高。精确制导装备：公司在激光制导导引头 ...