——万辰集团 2025Q1 业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 公司 25Q1 营收 108.2 亿元，同比+124%，归母净利润 2.15 亿元（去年同期为 0.06 亿元）。其中零食量贩业务收入 106.9 亿元，剔除股权支付费用净利润为 4.12 亿元，对应净利率为 3.85%，相比 2024 年提升 1.16pct。 ❑公司为硬折扣领域最纯粹标的，属于量贩零食龙二&唯一上市公司，25Q1 净 利率大超预期，关注少数股东权益收回进展，业绩增长有望超预期。 ❑量贩零食业务，毛净利率持续提升 1）25Q1 毛利率为 11%，同比+1.2pct，销售费用率为 3.3%（-0.8pct），管理费用率 为 2.5%（-0.5pct）。因量贩零食业务发展。我们认为随着门店品类扩张（潮玩/谷子 等）毛利率仍有提升空间，规模效应下净利率有望持续提升。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 休闲食品 万辰集团(300972) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 11 日 净利率超预期，股权激励激发信心 ❑股权激励激发信心，关注少数股东权益收回进展 1）公司拟针对核心人员及骨干授予 222 万股（约占总股本的 1.23%），授予目标价 69. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.82 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 124%, with a net profit of 215 million yuan compared to 6 million yuan in the same period last year. The snack wholesale business generated 10.69 billion yuan in revenue, and the net profit, excluding stock payment expenses, was 412 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.85%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points from 2024 [1][2] - The company is positioned as the purest player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the snack wholesale market. The significant outperformance in net profit margin indicates potential for further growth, especially with the recovery of minority shareholder rights [1][2] - The gross profit margin for the snack wholesale business improved to 11% in Q1 2025, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a sales expense ratio of 3.3% (down 0.8 percentage points) and a management expense ratio of 2.5% (down 0.5 percentage points). The expansion of store categories is expected to continue driving gross margin improvements [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a sales cash collection of 11.971 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 122% increase, with inventory at 1.453 billion yuan (up 110%), resulting in an inventory turnover period of 17 days. The company has established 50 warehousing centers nationwide, ensuring efficient "T+1" delivery [3] - The company holds 3 billion yuan in cash (up 76%) and generated a net operating cash flow of 714 million yuan (up 159%), with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.74% and a debt ratio of 72.74% [3] - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted upwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 936 million yuan, 1.292 billion yuan, and 1.602 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the liquor sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently at a low point, potentially representing the bottom of this adjustment cycle, with a focus on high dividend yield investment value [2][3] - The report highlights that since the second half of 2024, liquor companies have generally experienced a slowdown, indicating the current bottom range for the industry [2] - There is an increasing trend of concentration and differentiation, with leading liquor companies demonstrating resilience [2] - The report notes a decline in contract liabilities and an increase in sales expense ratios, emphasizing channel relief and a focus on the consumer end [2] - Fourteen liquor companies have increased their dividend payout ratios, with high dividend yield companies expected to exceed 4% in 2025, including Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Gujing Gongjiu [2] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, liquor companies' revenue performance stabilized, achieving steady growth, with a concentration accelerating towards high-end and regional leading liquor companies [9] - The liquor industry achieved a revenue of CNY 4,417.7 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, although the growth rate slowed compared to 2023 [9] - For Q1 2025, the liquor industry revenue was CNY 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [9] 2. Profitability Analysis - The high-end product resilience and the ongoing upgrade of mass-market products have contributed to an increase in gross margins, although net margins slightly declined due to rising expense ratios [20] - The gross margin for the liquor industry increased by 0.75 and 0.29 percentage points year-on-year to 81.82% and 81.50% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [20] - The net profit margin for the liquor industry decreased by 0.02 and 0.25 percentage points to 39.10% and 42.57% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [20] 3. Investment Recommendations - The liquor sector is still at a low point, and the report continues to recommend focusing on companies with strong brand momentum, early inventory clearance, and reasonable growth targets [3] - High-end liquor recommendations include Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while for mid-range and regional liquor, Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu are suggested [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of two main lines: the certainty of sustained momentum in high-end liquor and the elasticity of recovery from low bases in mid-range and regional liquor [3]

证券研究报告 账期持续承压，看好盈利修复 ——医药流通 2024A&2025Q1业绩综述 行业评级：看好 2025年5月9日 分析师 王帅 胡隽扬 邮箱 wangshuai@stocke.com.cn hujunyang@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523060003 S1230524090005 1 摘要：账期持续承压，看好盈利修复 一、行情复盘 三、投资建议 ➢ 在医保支付端趋严、上游医药工业公司营销渠道改革趋势下，我们认为集中度较高的医药流通板块已不仅仅是医药板块中稳健 的选择。基于我们对医药政策的研判，我们更看好院内回款改善后利润端弹性大，CSO、器械大健康分销等新业务持续兑现以 及在院外渠道具有更高的覆盖度与管理能力的龙头流通公司，重点推荐上海医药、九州通、百洋医药、重药控股，关注国药控 股、国药股份、柳药集团等。 四、风险提示 ➢ 行业加速出清下导致上下游经营短期波动风险；创新分销业务拓展不及预期风险；财务杠杆及筹融资风险 ➢ 2025.1.1至2025.5.8 ，医药流通指数下跌2.44%，跑输医药生物（申万）指数3.73pct，重点个股涨幅排序来看：南京医药+6.60%、九 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 国防军工 短期业绩筑底，看好下游需求释放 ——国防军工行业 2024 年报和 2025 一季报业绩综述 投资要点 ❑ 2024 年和 2025 一季度军工板块收入利润承压，业绩阶段性筑底 1）板块营收利润双下滑：对军工板块 135 只股票进行统计，2024 年板块整体营 收 5782 亿元，同比减少 1%；归母净利润 195 亿元，同比减少 39%。从季度角度 看，2025Q1 板块实现营收 1104 亿元，同比持平；归母净利润 58 亿元，同比减少 12%。剔除 11 只船舶类标的，其余 124 家公司 2024 年实现营收 4046 亿元，同比 减少 4%；实现归母净利润 134 亿元，同比减少 54%。从季度角度看，2025Q1 板 块实现营收 754 亿元，同比减少 5%；实现归母净利润 40 亿元，同比减少 47%。 （船舶板块民船占比大，与其余军工企业增长驱动逻辑有所差异）。 2）从短期看，板块盈利能力继续下滑。剔除船舶，2024 年军工板块毛利率为 20.8%， 同比减少 2.4pcts；净利率为 3.5%，同比减少 3.5pcts。单季度看，2025Q1 军工板 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 汽车 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 10 日 汽车 24 年报&25Q1 季报点评：关注细分领域龙头和机器人赛道 卡位好的公司 ——24&25Q1 业绩综述 投资要点 建议关注两条主线：细分领域龙头标的和机器人赛道卡位好的公司 细分领域龙头标的： 整车：华为车生态圈（北汽蓝谷、江淮汽车）&强势自主品牌（长安汽车、吉利 汽车、比亚迪） ✓ 北汽蓝谷：新能源汽车业务稳中向上，享界后续车型丰富。目前公司重点 布局享界、极狐核心品牌矩阵。江淮汽车：2024 新能源汽车销量持续增 长，携手华为打造尊界超豪华品牌。长安汽车：汽车行业稳步增长，海外 与新能源成新引擎。长安新能源汽车全年销售 73.5 万辆，同比增长 52.8%。吉利汽车：汽车销售强劲，新能源业务持续发力。2024 年，新能 源汽车总销量达到 88.8 万辆，同比增长 92%，销售收入占总收入的比例从 2023 年的 27%提升至 2024 年的 41%。比亚迪：新能源汽车销量稳健增 长，多品牌矩阵进一步深化。2024 年，比亚迪新能源汽车销量同比增长超 40%，连续蝉联中国及全球新能源车销量冠军。 零部件： 行业评 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 白酒稳中求进，食品重视景气子板块 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 5 月第 2 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：当前内需配置价值彰显，关注财报较优且基本面势能延续的标 的，新消费继续首推零食，传统消费优选业绩见底有望向上标的。我们维持 此前强调的"在内需避风港钓鱼"观点，并强调该阶段应该重点布局行业龙 头个股；白酒板块 2025 年或为新旧周期转换年，关注基本面业绩较好或公 司改革有望见成效的龙头标的；大众品短期关注零食公司或在山姆等会员店 上架新品的投资机会，关注盐津铺子、甘源食品、有友食品，持续推荐啤酒 饮料旺季备货、零售变革大年和成本周期带来的食饮投资机会。 白酒板块：白酒板块当前仍处低位，且一季报或为全年低点，当前位置持续 推荐，优选品牌势能较强、库存更早出清、目标增速合理的酒企。当前关税 等外部不确定性加剧，以白酒为代表的内需配置价值彰显，政策及地产企稳 催化下或迎白酒结构牛市，推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低 基数修复"两条主线：①势能延续的确定性：高端酒推荐贵州茅台/五粮液， 次高端及区域酒推荐古井贡酒/山西汾酒/今世缘/迎驾贡酒；②低基数修复的 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 饮料乳品 业绩短期承压，静待后续需求修复 ——欢乐家 2024 年报及 2025Q1 业绩点评报告 投资要点 2024 全年公司实现营业收入 18.55 亿元（同比-3.53%）；归母净利润 1.47 亿元 （同比-47.06%）；24Q4 公司实现营业收入 5.15 亿元(同比-16.52%)；实现归母 净利润 0.64 亿元（同比-38.02%），扣非归母净利润 0.62 亿元（同比--39.28%）。 2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 4.49 亿元（同比-18.52%）；实现归母净利润 0.34 亿 元（同比-58.27%），扣非归母净利润 0.33 亿元（同比-59.49%）。 分产品：各品类持续承压，静待后续需求修复 2024 年 椰子汁饮料/其 他 饮 料/水果罐头/其 他 罐 头 营 业 收 入 分 别 为 9.64/1.42/6.27/0.38 亿元，同比变动分别为-3.66%/-0.84%/-11.51%/-22.96%；25Q1 椰子汁饮料/水果罐头营业收入分别为 2.28/1.55 亿元。 +1.71pct/-0.14pct/+0.67pct；25Q1 销 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 休闲食品 25Q1 分销稳健，短期利润承压 ——三只松鼠 2024 年及 2025Q1 业绩点评 投资要点 短期来看，2025Q1 公司整体业绩表现平淡，但 2025 年业绩增长的重要驱动力 在于线下分销，需关注日销品占比提升及动销表现。 2024 年业绩符合预期，2025Q1 业绩略低于预期 3）净利率：2024 年实现 3.84%，同比+0.75pct；2024Q4 净利率为 1.92%，同比- 0.06pct。25Q1 净利率为 6.40%，同比-2.05pct。 公司 2024 年实现收入 106.22 亿元（同比+49.30%）；实现归母净利润 4.08 亿元 （同比+85.51%）；扣非后净利润实现 3.19 亿元（同比+214.33%）。其中 24Q4 实 现收入 34.53 亿元（同比+36.35%）；实现归母净利润 0.67 亿元（同比 +32.63%）；扣非后净利润实现 0.53 亿元（同比+229.16%），业绩符合市场预期。 2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 37.23 亿元（同比+2.13%）；归母净利润 2.39 亿元(同 比-22.46%)，扣非归母 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to improve as impairment impacts have bottomed out, with potential growth in the coal machinery and oil and gas sectors [1] - The company reported a 42.9% year-on-year decrease in net profit for 2024, primarily due to goodwill impairment in oil and gas equipment and inventory impairment in real estate [2] - The revenue structure has changed significantly, with a notable decline in profitability due to one-time impairments and reduced profitability in oil and gas equipment [3] Summary by Sections Domestic and International Development - Domestic demand has shown fluctuations, but there is significant potential for diversified development both domestically and internationally. The mining equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased industry concentration, while the logistics equipment sector is gaining overseas orders [1] - The company has expanded into emerging fields, including robotics and new energy equipment, which are expected to provide ongoing growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.9 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with overseas revenue growing by 28.4% to 8.17 billion yuan. However, net profit decreased to 1.1 billion yuan, a 42.9% decline [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 22.4%, down 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.9%, down 4.2 percentage points [3] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance starting in 2025, with projected revenues of 24.2 billion yuan, 29.5 billion yuan, and 33.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 18% [4] - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 2.19 billion yuan, 2.65 billion yuan, and 2.99 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 17% [4]