Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Views - The company is moving towards becoming a global leader in the engineering machinery sector, with the largest stock incentive plan in A-share history being granted for the first time. The controlling shareholder has increased its stake, and the benefits of mixed ownership reform are becoming evident. The quality of assets is improving, and future growth is expected to come from overseas and mining machinery businesses [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - XCMG Machinery is recognized as a leading player in China's engineering machinery sector, ranking fourth globally with a market share of 5.4% as of 2025, and maintaining its position as the largest in China. The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.4% in 2024, with a continuous improvement in profitability, as evidenced by an increase in net profit margin from 4.6% in 2022 to 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. Market Expectations - The market is concerned about insufficient demand from the downstream real estate sector and the adequacy of infrastructure funding, which has led to sustained pressure on operating rates and new machine sales [2]. Growth Drivers - The engineering machinery cycle is on an upward trend, driven by domestic demand from agriculture, municipal projects, and mining machinery breakthroughs. The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Fortescue River Group to provide 150-200 electric mining trucks, marking a significant step in green mining equipment exports. The company has also deepened cooperation with major overseas mining clients [4][5]. Stock Incentive Plan - The company has launched the largest stock incentive plan in A-share history, with the first grant date set for December 25, 2025. A total of 4.2 million shares, representing 3.6% of the current share capital, will be granted to 4,545 employees, accounting for 16% of the total workforce [4][17]. Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, XCMG Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 80 million and RMB 160 million within six months starting December 26, 2025. The first purchase involved 1.7795 million shares at an average price of RMB 11.22 per share [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 104 billion, RMB 121.6 billion, and RMB 142.6 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 17%, and 17%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 6.8 billion, RMB 8.8 billion, and RMB 11 billion, reflecting growth rates of 13%, 30%, and 25% [14][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - IRS reflects the market's expectation of the future capital cost center, but past experience has proven that the expectation reflected by IRS is not always correct [1][2][10] - Recently, the appreciation of the RMB is the main reason for the increasing expectation of capital easing and the continuous decline of IRS. The leveraged carry trade strategy is still effective, but in the medium - term, it is still maintained that "this round of RMB appreciation is beneficial to the inter - bank liquidity, but the magnitude should not be overestimated" [1][3][13] Summary by Directory 1 IRS's Expectation of the Capital Market: Neither Completely Believe Nor Completely Disbelieve - IRS reflects the market's expectation of the future capital cost center. Taking FR007IRS1 - year as an example, it uses a fixed cost to avoid the uncertainty of FR007 fluctuations in the next year, and this fixed cost is the expected value of the average FR007 in the next year [2][10] - Past experience shows that the capital expectation reflected by IRS is not always correct. For example, after the Politburo meeting in December 2024 and the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024, the market's expectation of the central bank's monetary policy easing in 2025 rapidly increased, and FR007S1Y deviated significantly downward from FR007. But after July 2025, FR007S1Y began to be slightly higher than FR007 for a long time [2][11] 2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (12/22 - 12/26), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 348 billion yuan. As of December 26, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 622.7 billion yuan, indicating a relatively loose capital situation [14] - Medium - term liquidity: In December, the due amount of outright reverse repurchases was 1.4 trillion yuan, and the MLF due was 300 billion yuan. The central bank continued to make net investments in MLF and outright reverse repurchases, with a total net investment of 30 billion yuan [15] - Long - term liquidity: Since the net investment amount of medium - term liquidity tools in December was at a relatively low level since August 2025, there are higher expectations for the amount of treasury bond trading in December [16] 2.2 Institutions' Financing and Lending Situations - Fund supply: On December 26, the net lending of large - scale banks was about 3.9 trillion yuan (flow concept), a decrease of about 258 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 136.2 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending balance of money market funds was 800 billion yuan, a decrease of about 74 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 416.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 180.1 billion yuan compared with December 19 [19] - Fund demand: On December 26, the balance of repurchase - to - be - bought bonds in the inter - bank market was about 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.2 billion yuan compared with December 19. The leverage ratios of the whole market and non - legal person products increased [26] 2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation - Capital volume and price: In the past week, the inter - bank pledged repo market had a large volume and stable prices. The median daily trading volume of the inter - bank pledged repo was about 8.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.7 billion yuan compared with December 15 - 19. The median of R001 was 1.36%, unchanged from last week. Due to the impact of new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the financing friction in the exchange increased [29] - Capital sentiment index: The overall capital situation was loose, and the financing difficulty was low. The sentiment index was around 50 most of the time [32] 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The median of the 1 - year FR007IRS this week was 1.49%, a decrease of 4.2bp compared with last week, and the interest rate was in the bottom 3% since 2020 [39] 3 Government Bonds 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 366.7 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds being 374.1 billion yuan and the net repayment of local government bonds being 7.4 billion yuan. In the next week, only 26 billion yuan of local government bonds will be issued on December 29 [40] 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of December 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 98.6%, an increase of 2.7% in the past week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 90.2 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds has been completed [42] 4 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 4.1 Absolute Yield - On December 26, SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year quotes were 1.26%, 1.45%, 1.58%, 1.6%, 1.63%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. The maturity yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks in the ChinaBond were 1.62%, 1.6%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.64% respectively. Except for the 6 - month term, which increased by 1bp compared with December 19, the quotes of other terms remained unchanged [46] 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situations - In the past week (December 22 - 26), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 560.29 billion yuan, an increase of 435.5 billion yuan compared with December 15 - 19. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year were 17%, 17%, 23%, 10%, and 33% respectively [49] 4.3 Relative Valuation - On December 26, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity yield and R007 was 11bp, in the 28% quantile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond maturity yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 20bp, in the 51% quantile since 2020 [52]

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 A 股策略周报 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 27 日 "未分胜负"变"利于多方"，防挖坑、不追高、逢低配 ——A 股市场运行周报第 73 期 核心观点 （1）蓝箭航天 IPO 辅导状态已变更为"辅导工作完成"、SpaceX 确认筹备 2026 年潜在 IPO 计划；（2）央行发布一次性个人信用修复政策，助力个人重塑信用； （3）央行货币政策委员会召开第四季度例会，会议提出"维护资本市场稳定"。 ❑ 下周行情展望 从盘面上看，市场从上周的"未分胜负"转向本周"利于多方"，主要归功于三项 驱动因素：一是中证 A500ETF 表现强劲，总份额在近一周、两周分别增加 398.9 亿份、672.3 亿份；二是商业航天相关持续火爆，驱动成长指数明显上涨；三是光 模块继续走强，对双创指数形成托举。虽然上述因素驱动市场格局转向多头，并 为明年上半年的向上奠定基础，但其持续性有待检验。展望后市，我们认为 A 股 中线看多、"系统性慢牛"继续走高的结论具有较高的置信度，而短期走势如何演 绎则需要我们"边走边看"，是否会像去年底、今年初一般在中线行情启动前挖出 "黄金坑"仍不得 ...

Core Insights - The equity market's year-end rally may have started, which, combined with the hot commodity market led by precious metals, could further impact the bond market's asset scarcity logic [1] - In a market environment with significant interest rate fluctuations, a buy-and-hold coupon strategy may offer a higher cost-performance ratio due to its relatively simple operational approach and neutral performance [1] Group 1: Equity Market Year-End Rally - From December 17 to 26, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight-day consecutive rise, indicating that the year-end rally may have begun [2] - Factors that contributed to the previous year-end rally in 2020, such as a liquidity-rich macro environment, increased preference for stable earnings, and a positive cycle of fund issuance and stock purchases, are also present in the current market [2][17] - Current favorable conditions for the equity market include a reinforced low-interest-rate environment, a clear leadership in technology stocks, and increased institutional pressure for passive holdings [20] Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The bond market has not performed outstandingly compared to other asset classes, with both absolute returns and risk-adjusted performance lacking [3][25] - The influx of funds into the bond market due to asset scarcity may face outflow pressure, negatively impacting bond market performance [3][25] Group 3: Buy-and-Hold Coupon Strategy - As of December 26, the average actual yield of pure bond funds was 1.44%, with 21.17% of funds exceeding a 2% yield [4][28] - A buy-and-hold strategy focusing on high-coupon credit bonds may provide better cost-performance, especially in a volatile interest rate environment [4][28] - For a 3-year AAA-rated bond, the actual yield could reach 1.65% when considering the benefits of duration shortening, ranking 43.50% among all bond funds [4][28]

工业利润增速放缓，新质生产力增速加快 ——2025 年 1-11 月工业企业盈利数据的背后 核心观点 2025 年 1-11 月工业企业利润增速有所放缓，工业品价格修复不足、内需放缓是主因。 结构上，新质生产力成为利润驱动主力，高技术制造业、装备制造业利润增速带动明 显，其中"人工智能+" 带动的电子工业专用设备、航空航天相关设备制造和智能消 费设备制造表现亮眼，此外，有色行业受市场需求带动保持两位数增长。另一方面， 我们再次提示，"反内卷"节奏和力度相较 2016 年供给侧改革有较大差异，在全国统 一大市场框架下，更侧重于供给的高质量优化而非简单的产能出清，侧重于使用市场 化、法制化手段引导"内卷"领域将价格回归成本线以上竞争，遏制降低质量以次充好 的恶性低价竞争，有助于促使工业利润增速回稳。 ❑ 工业利润增速放缓，内需、价格支撑偏弱 2025 年 1-11 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 0.1%（前值 1.9%），其中 11 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%。我们认为，10 月以来内需有所放缓、 工业品价格仍然偏低对工业利润增速支撑不足，从两年平均增速来看，11 月工业 利润累计同比增速两 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The overall bus export in November was 8,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, while the cumulative export for the first eleven months was 93,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 26%. The export of new energy buses in November was 1,100 units, down 6% year-on-year, but the cumulative export for the first eleven months reached 15,000 units, up 58% year-on-year, indicating a high level of bus export activity and rapid growth in new energy segments [1][11] - The market for fuel buses is expected to remain strong, particularly in regions like the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa, with a projected year-on-year growth of 21% in fuel bus exports before October 2025. The new energy bus market is also expanding, especially in Europe, where the penetration rate is expected to rise significantly [4][30] - The report highlights that the new energy bus export market is expected to grow, with projections indicating that by 2025, the market share of Chinese new energy bus exports could reach over 26%, and by 2027, it could rise to 33%, corresponding to an export scale of 6,000 units [5][40] Industry Data Update - The export of large and medium buses in October was 4,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 14%. The export of light buses in October was 5,000 units, up 25% year-on-year, with a cumulative export of 43,000 units for the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43% [1][20] - The domestic sales of large and medium buses in November reached 8,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with cumulative sales of 54,000 units for the first eleven months [1][22] Company Data Update - Yutong Bus sold 35,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The company expects to achieve sales of 40,000 units in 2024, a growth of 27% [2][27] - King Long Automobile reported sales of 28,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with an expected sales target of 29,000 units in 2024, reflecting a growth of 28% [2][29] - Zhongtong Bus sold 11,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with an expected sales target of 10,000 units in 2024, reflecting a growth of 58% [3][29] Industry Space - The report identifies significant market opportunities for fuel buses in underdeveloped countries, while the new energy bus market is expected to see substantial growth in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, with projections indicating a total demand of 17,000 units by 2024 and 37,000 units by 2027 [4][40] - In Europe, the market for large and medium buses is projected to reach 47,000 units in 2024, with a new energy penetration rate of 16%, expected to rise to 25% by 2027, corresponding to sales of 19,000 new energy buses [4][34] - The report anticipates that by 2027, the export volume of Chinese new energy buses could reach 17,000 units, with a compound annual growth rate of 39% from 2024 [40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 4.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%. Profit before tax reached 1.114 billion yuan, up 56.75%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.881 billion yuan, reflecting a 54.06% increase. Cumulatively, for Q1-Q3 2025, these metrics showed year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 73.16%, and 67.51% respectively. The increase in sales volume and prices were identified as the main drivers of profit growth. Additionally, net cash flow from operating activities surged by 99.20% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability and cash flow quality [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.795 billion yuan, a 23.17% increase year-on-year. The profit before tax was 1.114 billion yuan, marking a 56.75% increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.881 billion yuan, up 54.06%. For the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative revenue, profit before tax, and net profit showed year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 73.16%, and 67.51% respectively [1] Shareholder Confidence - Major shareholders, including the controlling shareholder China National Building Material and shareholders holding over 5%, announced plans to increase their stakes in the company by investing between 675 million yuan and 1.35 billion yuan over the next 12 months. This move reflects their confidence in the company's long-term value and growth prospects [2] Financial Structure - The company successfully issued its tenth phase of technology innovation bonds in December 2025, raising 400 million yuan at a low interest rate of 1.70%. This issuance not only provides low-cost operational funding but also demonstrates the company's strong reputation and financing capabilities in the capital market [3] Industry Position - The company maintains its position as a global leader in production capacity, achieving "world firsts" in three categories: thermosetting roving, thermoplastic reinforcement, and electronic fabrics. Its scale advantage solidifies its industry standing and ensures a healthy operational foundation. The company is actively enhancing management efficiency through benchmarking against world-class standards and implementing a comprehensive compliance framework across its value chain [4] Investment Outlook - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.9 billion yuan, with a conservative estimate of a 15% growth rate for the full year. The gross profit margin improved to 32.4% compared to 23.7% in 2024. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.6 billion yuan, 4 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.01, and 1.12 yuan. The combination of shareholder confidence and low-cost financing enhances the company's financial safety margin and shareholder return expectations. Given its solid industry position and cost control capabilities, the company is expected to have a promising long-term growth trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The overseas AIDC construction remains robust, while domestic demand is expected to rebound in 2026. In the second half of 2025, there is a clear divergence in AIDC construction between domestic and international markets. North America continues to experience high levels of capital expenditure, with the four major cloud providers' capital spending reaching $257.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 65% year-on-year increase. In contrast, domestic cloud providers are experiencing a temporary slowdown in capital expenditure growth due to restrictions on high-end computing card imports, which has delayed some AIDC project timelines. However, this impact is seen as a deferral of demand rather than a disappearance of demand. As overseas supply of computing cards improves and domestic alternatives continue to develop, a "pent-up rebound" in domestic AIDC construction is anticipated in 2026, indicating potential for demand release [1]. Summary by Sections AIDC Equipment - The report highlights the ongoing high demand for AIDC equipment in North America, driven by rapid growth in AI computing needs and delayed power grid construction, leading to increased orders for gas turbines for self-generation or distributed power supply [2]. Gas Turbines - The global gas turbine market is characterized by a significant supply-demand imbalance, with an expected increase of over 85 GW in global gas turbine orders in 2025, while existing effective capacity is around 50 GW. The market is dominated by GE, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which together hold an 88% market share. The backlog of orders extends to 2028, creating opportunities for Chinese companies to enter the overseas market [2][3]. Diesel Generators - Diesel generators are essential backup power sources in AIDC construction, with a long-term market dominated by Cummins, MTU, and Caterpillar, which together hold about 85% of the market share in China. Current capacity bottlenecks faced by overseas manufacturers present a window of opportunity for domestic manufacturers like Weichai to replace foreign brands and expand internationally [4]. Cooling Equipment - The report notes that the rapid increase in AI chip power consumption is pushing the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, as traditional air cooling approaches reach their physical limits. This trend is expected to drive demand for related cooling equipment [5]. Emerging Technologies - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) are being explored as a solution to power shortages in North America, offering high modularity, short delivery cycles, and high efficiency. The report suggests that SOFC costs are approaching those of gas turbines, indicating a potential growth area [7]. Data Center Busbars - The traditional "rack and cable" approach in high-power density scenarios is being replaced by intelligent busbar solutions, which offer higher reliability and easier maintenance, marking a significant upgrade direction for data center power distribution systems [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several key areas: gas turbines, diesel generators, cooling equipment, and emerging technologies like SOFC and data center busbars, as these sectors are expected to benefit from structural opportunities driven by both domestic and international demand [8]. Key companies to watch include Yingliu, Ice Wheel Environment, Weichai Power, Haomai Technology, and Jerry [8].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 26 日 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.47%，沪深 300 上涨 0.18%，科创 50 下跌 0.23%，中证 1000 上涨 0.97%，创业板指上 0.30%，恒生指数上涨 0.17%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+2.91%)、轻工制造（+1.59%)、机械设备（+1.51%)、汽车（+1.46%)、 非银金融（+1.08%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-1.12%)、有色金属（-0.77%)、商贸零售（-0.47%)、煤炭（-0.24%)、 通信（-0.18%)。 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 19245 亿元，南下资金净流出 11.75 亿港元。 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/王华君/周向昉】机械设备 年度行业策略报告：可控核聚变：招标提速，设备先行 ——20251224 【浙商大消费中观策略 钟烨晨】酒店餐饮 年度行业策略报告：2026 年餐饮行业风险排雷手册—— ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a new tiered performance compensation adjustment mechanism for public fund managers, linking their pay directly to fund performance over the past three years [8][10][11] - A profile of stock funds with higher outperformance rates is depicted, emphasizing the importance of appropriate performance benchmarks, lower stock concentration, larger fund sizes, and higher manager tenure stability [1][12] - The backtesting results show that the proportion of funds underperforming the benchmark is directly related to market conditions, with significant variations observed from 2022 to 2025 [12][24] Group 2 - Active funds have a higher underperformance rate compared to quantitative funds, indicating that quantitative strategies may provide better risk management through diversified holdings [18][19] - Non-market funds exhibit higher underperformance rates than market funds, particularly in fluctuating market conditions, suggesting that concentrated strategies may lead to missed opportunities [24][25] - Funds with more diversified holdings (over 200 stocks) show lower underperformance rates, reinforcing the idea that diversification can mitigate risks associated with individual stock volatility [35][36] Group 3 - Fund size is inversely correlated with underperformance rates, with larger funds generally exhibiting lower rates of underperformance compared to smaller funds [38][39] - Changing performance benchmarks can significantly reduce the rate of significant underperformance, highlighting the importance of selecting optimal benchmarks in the context of new regulations [24][38] - The report notes that funds with a high concentration in a single industry but benchmarked against broad indices tend to underperform, emphasizing the need for appropriate benchmark selection [32][34]