- The report discusses the impact of ETF scale disturbances on the A500 index, which has led to an early pricing of post-holiday positive expectations. This has limited the marginal tightening space for quantitative strategy risk exposure, with the recovery of micro-cap stocks expected to occur earlier than usual in January 2026[1][11] - The IM basis dimension is highlighted as a key factor, with the annualized IM basis fluctuating significantly between 18% and 5% by the end of December 2025, eventually converging to around 5%. This basis change is expected to catalyze the recovery of micro-cap stocks as hedging strategies rebuild positions after the holiday[2][12] - The report emphasizes the long-term bull market of micro-cap stocks in the A-share market, driven by two main factors: the relatively low delisting probability in the A-share market compared to the U.S. market, which increases shell value, and the higher proportion of individual investors in the A-share market, who prefer small-cap stocks, providing them with higher liquidity[3][13] - Historical data over the past decade shows that micro-cap stocks have achieved a cumulative return of 552%, significantly outperforming most other investment categories. The report notes that micro-cap stocks tend to perform well in the absence of a clear market mainline, benefiting from liquidity premiums during periods of market volatility[3][13] - The report predicts a post-holiday market rotation, with large-cap stocks leading initially, followed by small-cap stocks. The A500 index's valuation uplift is expected to create upward space for micro-cap stocks, with liquidity spillover effects likely to emerge in mid-to-late January 2026, driving a new round of micro-cap stock rallies[4][14]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 房地产 房地产 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 03 日 定调与展望：房地产新阶段的政策逻辑与市场前景 ——行业点评报告 行业评级: 看好(维持) 投资要点 事件：求是网发布《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》（以下简称"文章"） 点评： ❑ 承认房地产支柱作用，政策出台将更趋客观审慎 文章明确指出，房地产产业链条长、关联度高，对投资、消费、就业等关键经济 指标均有显著影响，2024 年房地产业和建筑业增加值占国内生产总值比重合计 达 13%，直接带动就业超 7000 万人，"仍然是支撑国民经济的基础产业"。我们 认为，文章自上而下的确认了房地产在经济大盘中的支柱地位，回应了市场关 于其重要性下降的疑虑。同时，文章强调要"全面辩证认识当前房地产市场面临 的形势"，指出市场正处于"深度调整"和"新旧模式转换"的关键节点。我们认为， 这预示着未来的政策思路并非简单的"救市"或"刺激"，而是基于对房地产发展规 律和阶段特征的深刻把握。政策制定将更加注重"对症下药"，强调"保持战略定 力，积极主动作为"，其核心在于通过"有力更精准的举措"来改善和稳定预期，而 非盲目托举。因此，我们认为，未来 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the A-share market post-New Year, anticipating a "good start" after the holiday due to the rise in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index [1][2][50] - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the three driving factors behind the recent A-share rally: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector [1][2][50] - The mid-term outlook suggests that the market may continue to rise before March, with a general recommendation to be bullish and proactive in investments [1][2][50] Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations before the New Year, with most broad indices slightly declining; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by 0.59% and 0.47% respectively [10][48] - The A500 ETF's share increased by only 1.58 billion shares in the last three days before the holiday, a significant drop from the previous week [10][48] - The overall market sentiment indicated a tendency to "rest and prepare for the next battle," as reflected in the low volatility before the holiday [10][48] Sector Observations - The report highlights strong performance in the petrochemical and commercial aerospace sectors, with the oil and petrochemical sector rising by 3.92% and the commercial aerospace sector increasing by 3.05% [13][49] - The report notes a resurgence in interest in robotics and AI applications, with automotive and machinery sectors rising by 1.44% and 1.32% respectively, while consumer sectors like food and beverage saw declines [13][49] Fund Flow Analysis - The latest margin trading balance reached 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.47% from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in fund inflow [26][48] - The report indicates that the securities ETF saw the highest net inflow of 13.1 billion yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced the largest outflow of 8.9 billion yuan [26][48] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model shows that the current market indices have seen an increase in valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE-TTM at 16.59, placing it in the 91.99 percentile [40][42] - The Shenzhen Component Index's PE-TTM is at 31.24, in the 77.52 percentile, indicating a generally elevated valuation across major indices [40][42]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that during the New Year holiday (January 1-2), major asset classes showed a pattern of "divergent equities, strong non-ferrous metals, pressured bonds, and stable foreign exchange" [1][11] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market led global gains, while major European and American stock indices performed flat during the holiday [1][11] - In the commodity sector, silver continued its upward momentum from 2025, with copper, aluminum, and gold also recording slight increases [1][11] Group 2 - The overall performance of major asset classes in 2025 was characterized by "strong precious metals, rising equity markets, and commodity divergence" [2][14] - Precious metals, particularly silver, saw significant gains due to increased geopolitical tensions and a restructuring of the dollar credit system, with silver's annual increase reaching 142% [2][14][22] - The domestic equity market experienced a slow bull market driven by policy support, confidence recovery, and capital inflow, with technology stocks leading the A-share bull market [2][25] Group 3 - The report summarizes key news during the New Year holiday, including the official implementation of new fund sales regulations, which may alleviate concerns about bond fund liquidity [3][27] - The article published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to stabilize real estate market expectations and improve market conditions [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that sales related to the "old-for-new" policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating a significant consumer market impact [3][32] Group 4 - The report suggests that the bond market may present some short-term trading opportunities, especially following the relaxation of redemption fees for bond funds [4][35] - It is noted that the overall recovery space for bonds may be limited, and a quick trading strategy may be more favorable [4][37] - For long-term bullish positioning, patience is advised as the current market conditions are still considered relatively early in the cycle [4][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the A-share market in 2026 will revolve around "structural transformation and confidence restoration," with a focus on technology investments and external demand recovery [3][4] - The report emphasizes a "systematic slow bull" market phase, suggesting a gradual upward trend in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to oscillate between the high point of February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of 5178-2440 [9] - Investment strategies include focusing on four main lines: consumer services, sectors with growth potential like automotive and pharmaceuticals, traditional industries, and dividend-paying stocks such as banks and transportation [9] Group 2 - Policy risks are highlighted, particularly the impact of new public fund regulations on asset allocation, which may lead to a reallocation of equity fund performance benchmarks in the second half of 2026 [10][12] - Geopolitical risks are identified, with potential impacts from U.S. actions in Venezuela and Japan's political stance affecting market sentiment and inflation expectations [13][14] - Other risks include the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, domestic economic recovery, and the performance of U.S. tech stocks, all of which could influence market dynamics in the second half of 2026 [15][17][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price changes in various metals, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showing substantial year-to-date increases of 58.06% and 58.47% respectively [3] - Copper prices have risen by 33.74% year-to-date, while gold has increased by 57.24% despite a recent daily decline [3] - The report indicates a general upward trend in metal prices, with notable increases in silver (128.57% year-to-date) and white tungsten concentrate (217.83% year-to-date) [3] Price Changes Summary - Lithium Carbonate: Latest price at 119,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.45%, year-to-date change of 58.06% [3] - Lithium Hydroxide: Latest price at 110,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.30%, year-to-date change of 58.47% [3] - Copper: Latest price at 99,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 1.31%, year-to-date change of 33.74% [3] - Gold: Latest price at 971.7 CNY/gram, daily change of -1.13%, year-to-date change of 57.24% [3] - Electrolytic Nickel: Latest price at 138,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 3.29%, year-to-date change of 10.05% [3] - Aluminum: Latest price at 23,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 1.58%, year-to-date change of 13.79% [3] - Lead: Latest price at 17,000 CNY/ton, daily change of -1.26%, year-to-date change of 3.10% [3] - Zinc: Latest price at 23,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.34%, year-to-date change of -9.71% [3] - Tin: Latest price at 326,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.51%, year-to-date change of 32.66% [3] - Silver: Latest price at 17.1 CNY/gram, daily change of -5.88%, year-to-date change of 128.57% [3] - Antimony: Latest price at 162,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of 15.67% [3] - Molybdenum: Latest price at 455,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 2.02%, year-to-date change of -0.98% [3] - Titanium Sponge: Latest price at 50,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of 2.04% [3] - White Tungsten Concentrate: Latest price at 455,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of 217.83% [3] - Magnesium: Latest price at 17,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of -3.64% [3] - Neodymium Praseodymium Oxide: Latest price at 608,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of 50.93% [3] - Metal Silicon: Latest price at 12,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of -17.47% [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading integrated logistics service provider in air transportation, benefiting from the booming cross-border e-commerce market [1][2]. - The air freight business shows significant profit elasticity, primarily driven by demand from developed economies and cross-border e-commerce [2][3]. - The company has a diversified business model with three main segments: air freight services, integrated logistics solutions, and air cargo station services, with air freight being the most profitable [1][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only flag carrier cargo airline in China, with a stable and diversified shareholder structure, primarily controlled by state-owned enterprises [1][14]. - Its main operations are based in Shanghai, and it has expanded its business through strategic partnerships and investments [13][14]. Air Freight Market - The air freight market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, which is expected to drive up air freight rates [2]. - Demand is closely linked to economic growth in developed markets, with cross-border e-commerce being a key growth driver [2][49]. - Supply constraints are evident, with limited capacity in both freighter and passenger aircraft [2][49]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 229.5 billion, 249.2 billion, and 268.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% [4][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 25.6 billion, 27.1 billion, and 29.0 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 31%, 6%, and 7% [4][7]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 28x, 27x, and 25x for the respective years [4]. Business Segments - The air freight segment contributes significantly to the company's gross profit, with full freighter operations showing high elasticity [1][27]. - The integrated logistics solutions segment is expanding, catering to high-end product logistics needs, and is expected to benefit from the growth in cross-border e-commerce [1][3]. - The air cargo station services are also growing steadily, with a projected gross margin improvement [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for air freight driven by cross-border e-commerce, which is expected to grow significantly in the coming years [57][58]. - The report highlights that 80% of cross-border e-commerce goods are transported by air, indicating a strong market potential for the company [57].

Group 1: PMI and Economic Activity - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[1] - The production index for December is 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity[2] - The composite PMI output index is 50.7%, reflecting overall economic activity improvement compared to the previous month[7] Group 2: Demand and Orders - The new orders index for December is 50.8%, rising 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved market demand in manufacturing[3] - The production expectation index for manufacturing is 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, showing increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market development[2] - The new export orders index is 49%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, suggesting stable development in manufacturing exports[3] Group 3: Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in price increases for raw materials[4] - The factory price index is 48.9%, up 0.7 percentage points, marking a second consecutive month of increase in finished product prices[4] - Price trends are diverging, with high-energy-consuming industries experiencing a decline in purchasing prices, while equipment and high-tech manufacturing maintain a faster price increase[4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improvement in the non-manufacturing sector[7] - The construction industry business activity index is 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, reflecting a return to expansion in the construction sector[7]

Core Insights - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, marks a transition from preparation to implementation, with significant policy benefits expected in 2026, which is seen as a historic investment opportunity [1][2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port theme received a score of 61.25 based on eight dimensions, with 23 beneficiary stocks selected to form the Hainan Free Trade Port stock pool, which has outperformed the Wind All A index by 17.8% since the end of 2024 [4][3] Policy Foundation - The Hainan Free Trade Port is built on the "One Law and Three Core" principles, including "one line open, two lines controlled, and free flow within the island," which aims to enhance economic dynamism through a policy framework of "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems" [2][13] - The "zero tariff" policy has shifted from a positive list to a negative list management approach, expanding the range of goods eligible for zero tariffs [16] Investment Opportunities in Core Industries - The free flow of production factors is expected to reshape Hainan's industrial structure, with tourism, cross-border logistics and finance, and new productive forces in commercial aerospace and deep-sea economy identified as the primary beneficiaries of policy dividends [3][18] - The tourism sector is transitioning from "duty-free on departure" to a "whole island consumption" model, enhancing the attractiveness of Hainan for both domestic and international consumers [21][19] - Cross-border logistics and finance are positioned to benefit from higher levels of openness, with Hainan becoming a hub for offshore trade and digital trade [30][32] - New productive forces are expected to thrive in Hainan's unique geographical and policy environment, particularly in commercial aerospace and deep-sea technology [38][40] Hainan Free Trade Port Theme Evaluation - The theme evaluation score of 61.25 reflects high scores in policy effectiveness, support intensity, and industry coverage, indicating a favorable investment environment [45][46] - The evaluation criteria include market capitalization, policy effectiveness, support intensity, industry coverage, valuation levels, trading congestion, performance realization capability, and future growth potential [46][47] Hainan Free Trade Port Stock Pool - The stock pool is constructed based on three dimensions: tourism, cross-border logistics, and new productive forces, providing a selection of stocks that could benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Port policies [48][49] - Specific sectors within the stock pool include duty-free retail, healthcare tourism, and experiential cultural tourism, which are expected to see significant growth [22][23][26] Hainan Free Trade Port Index - The Hainan Free Trade Port Index, based on the selected stocks, has shown a significant increase of 43.02% from December 31, 2024, to December 26, 2025, outperforming the Wind All A index by 17.8% [54][55]

Market Overview - On December 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.26%, the STAR Market 50 increased by 1.01%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.04%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on December 30 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+2.63%), Automotive (+1.35%), Nonferrous Metals (+1.31%), Machinery Equipment (+1.29%), and Comprehensive (+1.01%). The worst-performing sectors were Retail (-1.56%), Real Estate (-1.22%), Utilities (-1.14%), Social Services (-1.13%), and Construction Decoration (-1.11%) [4][5] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on December 30 was 21,615 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.845 billion HKD from southbound funds [4][5] Important Recommendations - The report recommends Ximai Food (002956) as the only listed company in China with a complete oat industry chain, which is expected to see revenue growth from new channels and products, benefiting from oat cost advantages [6] - The company is projected to have revenue of 2,278.08 million yuan in 2025, growing to 3,193.94 million yuan by 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 20.14% in 2025, 18.57% in 2026, and 18.24% in 2027 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 181.29 million yuan in 2025, increasing to 317.13 million yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 36.11%, 34.56%, and 30.01% respectively [6] Key Insights - The strategy report indicates that after a week of volume contraction in the Shanghai Composite, there is a higher likelihood of continued upward movement, while a month later, a correction is more probable [7][8] - The report highlights that a volume contraction during an upward trend may indicate optimistic market expectations, leading to limited selling pressure and potential short-term price increases [8] - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to experience high demand driven by energy storage, overseas power batteries, and solid-state batteries, with a positive outlook for 2026 [10]