Research 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月16日 | 12:07AM HKT CHINA RESILIENCE 聚焦中国高韧性企业 –腾讯控股 (0700.HK) 超级应用构筑生态系统，游戏业务布局全球 (摘要) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report presents three global paths for decarbonization, with the most realistic scenario being aligned with a 2.0°C increase in global temperatures, suggesting a more achievable target compared to the 1.5°C scenario [3][51]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in cumulative emissions, with a 66% rise compared to the 2021 Paris Agreement-aligned scenario, indicating a challenging path to achieving net zero [6][51]. - The energy sector has faced substantial changes since 2021, including the global energy crisis, which has impacted emissions trajectories and necessitated a revised approach to decarbonization [51][52]. - The report emphasizes the need for approximately US$75 trillion in infrastructure investment to achieve carbon neutrality, underscoring the scale of financial commitment required [5][10]. Summary by Sections Emissions Path Developments - Total global CO2 emissions reached a record high of 43.2 Gt in 2023, increasing by 2.2% from 2021-2023, contrary to the initial expectation of a 5% reduction [41][44]. - The power generation sector contributed significantly to the rise in emissions, with a 2% increase instead of the anticipated decrease [41][44]. Changes Compared to 2021 Scenarios - The updated GS 2.0° scenario reflects a more realistic approach to achieving net zero by 2070, contrasting with the previous GS <2.0° scenario aimed at 2060 [51][52]. - The report notes that renewable energy sources, particularly solar and nuclear, have surpassed previous estimates, while the development of wind capacity has been slower than expected [8][12]. Investment Opportunities - The report estimates a cumulative investment opportunity of approximately US$74.6 trillion across various sectors on the path to global net zero by 2070 [10][12]. - Investments in oil and natural gas are projected to remain necessary beyond 2040, indicating a continued reliance on fossil fuels during the transition [36][38]. Sector-Specific Insights - In transportation, the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) has exceeded expectations, with a 35% share in global passenger car sales in 2023 compared to a projected 13% [44][49]. - The buildings sector has seen a 2% reduction in emissions, driven by the deployment of low-carbon technologies and a shift towards renewable energy sources [45][49].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry but indicates that companies with stronger relative Nature Performance trade at modest premiums to laggard peers [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus on Nature and Biodiversity as a critical area for corporate sustainability strategies and sustainable investors, driven by various catalysts such as the need for Nature-based solutions and the physical and financial risks associated with biodiversity loss [5][6][8]. - The GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool is introduced as a framework to measure corporate transparency and performance related to biodiversity, aiming to provide investors with a clearer understanding of companies' impacts on nature [10][33]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Nature is gaining momentum as a focus area for corporate sustainability strategies, with five catalysts identified: the need for Nature-based solutions, efficiency improvements, risks of biodiversity loss, permitting processes for land development, and responses to the Global Biodiversity Framework [5][6][19]. GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool - The GS SUSTAIN Nature Tool measures corporate exposure, transparency, and performance related to biodiversity through a framework that includes assessing business activities, plans, and performance metrics [10][33]. Biodiversity Transparency and Performance - The report emphasizes that while data on biodiversity is scarce, existing data can provide context for company analysis, revealing that few companies have sector-leading plans and performance on relevant indicators [11][12]. - Companies with strong Nature Performance are observed to trade at a premium, while those with strong transparency plans tend to trade at a discount [13][24]. Stock Performance - Nature Performance leaders have underperformed compared to laggard peers and the MSCI ACWI since early 2022, indicating potential discovery value for companies with strong performance-driven outcomes [14][40]. - Nature Plan/Transparency leaders have shown similar stock performance to laggards, with both outperforming the MSCI ACWI in certain sectors [41][44]. Nature & Biodiversity Adopters and Enablers - Investors are likely to focus on sectors with high potential negative impacts on biodiversity, such as Food & Beverage and Metals & Mining [22]. - Companies providing adaptive solutions to mitigate nature-related risks are expected to gain investor favor, highlighting the importance of water resiliency, land management, and technology solutions [23][24]. GS SUSTAIN Nature Framework and Relative Valuation - The report notes that while Nature Performance leaders trade at a premium, Nature Plan leaders consistently trade at a discount, suggesting that the market rewards performance-driven outcomes over mere disclosure [24][35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) is Neutral [2][4][16]. Core Views - Zhifei Biological is a major player in the Chinese vaccine market, with core products including the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine (in collaboration with Merck), shingles vaccine (in collaboration with GSK), and self-developed vaccines and tuberculosis products. The company is expected to launch several products in the next three years, which should support revenue growth. However, the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine may face a decline starting in 2025 due to the latest agreement with Merck [2][4]. - The report highlights key events to watch: the launch of the human diploid cell rabies vaccine, the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, as well as new product licensing from multinational companies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Zhifei Biological, indicating that the current valuation is reasonable compared to the historical average pre-COVID-19 [2][4]. Financial Projections - The 12-month price target for Zhifei Biological is set at RMB 52, based on a two-stage discounted cash flow valuation method, with a discount rate of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [3][4]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 52.92 billion for 2023, RMB 55.59 billion for 2024, RMB 51.37 billion for 2025, and RMB 50.44 billion for 2026 [4]. Key Products and Developments - The report notes that the RSV vaccine developed by GSK has entered Phase III clinical trials in China, with an expected completion date for the primary endpoint follow-up in March 2025. If successful, it may receive approval from the National Medical Products Administration in the first half of 2026 [1]. - The quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to face a decline starting in 2025, which is a significant concern for the company's revenue [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Envicool (002837.SZ) [1][8] Core Insights - Envicool reported robust Q2 performance, aligning with its previous earnings forecast, with revenue, gross profit, EBIT, and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth of 36%, 39%, 96%, and 82% respectively [1] - The company anticipates continued strong growth in its data center (liquid cooling) temperature control business, driven by increased orders in June and July, although growth in the energy storage temperature control segment is expected to slow [1][4] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing product value and expanding its customer base both domestically and internationally, particularly in the CPU server market [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, Envicool's financials were as follows: revenue of RMB 967 million, gross profit of RMB 311 million, EBIT of RMB 120 million, and net profit of RMB 121 million, all exceeding prior forecasts [1][4] - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 32%, with EBIT and net profit margins at 12% and 13% respectively, reflecting improvements compared to previous periods [1][4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2030 slightly upward by 1%, with a new target price set at RMB 33.1, based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2025 [1][8] Business Segment Insights - The data center temperature control revenue grew by 86% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by strong demand from domestic cloud and hosting clients, as well as telecom operators [1][2] - The liquid cooling business maintained approximately 100% year-on-year growth, supported by projects in China and Southeast Asia [1][2] - The energy storage temperature control segment saw only an 11% year-on-year increase, attributed to a high base effect from 2023 and declining prices in temperature control systems [2][4] Strategic Outlook - Envicool aims to maintain a strong R&D focus while improving operational efficiency, with plans to enhance its product offerings and expand into overseas markets [4][7] - The company is also focusing on securing service contracts for energy storage projects to drive sustainable growth [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of RMB 26, down from RMB 27, based on a 14x exit P/E multiple applied to the expected EPS for 2026 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain industry-leading performance due to its strong brand, extensive distribution network, and comprehensive product/brand portfolio, despite a slight downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 by 3-5% due to weak consumer demand [1][6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end kitchen appliance market in China, expanding into rapidly growing categories such as dishwashers and integrated cooking appliances, with projected revenue and net profit growth in the high single to double digits from 2022 to 2026 [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are RMB 11,386 million, with a year-over-year growth of 1.6%. The 2025E revenue is projected at RMB 11,998 million, reflecting a growth of 5.4%, and 2026E at RMB 12,653 million, with a growth of 5.5% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to be 50.6% in 2024E, slightly decreasing from previous years, while the net income for 2024E is projected at RMB 1,790 million, with a year-over-year growth of 3.3% [3][5]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.89 for 2024E, with a growth of 3.3% from the previous year, and is expected to reach RMB 2.15 by 2026E [3][5]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a dominant position in the high-end range hood and gas hob markets, with stable growth in core products. The focus on independent product development since 2019 has allowed the company to expand its market share in structural growth categories, particularly in dishwashers [6][7]. - Potential short-term catalysts for growth include the successful launch of new products in emerging categories and a rebound in real estate market demand [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kelun Pharmaceutical is Neutral, with a target price raised to RMB 41 from RMB 39, indicating a potential upside of 31.5% from the current price of RMB 31.18 [6][4][3]. Core Insights - Kelun Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of RMB 11.827 billion for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, which aligns with the forecast [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.8 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, but below expectations [1]. - The actual tax rate for the first half of 2024 was estimated at 36%, higher than anticipated due to the expiration of previous tax incentives [1]. - The company is a leading player in the infusion products market and a significant entity in the APIs and generic drugs sector, with growth driven by the ramp-up of innovative drugs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 23.89 billion, with net profit estimates of RMB 3.136 billion, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 2.20, up 2.8% from earlier predictions [2]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of RMB 41 is derived using a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, applying a 16.6x P/E ratio for the infusion and generic drug business, consistent with global peers [4]. - The valuation also considers the market value of investments in subsidiaries and a discounted cash flow approach for the innovative drug segment [4]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Kelun Pharmaceutical's current implied P/E ratio is 15.8x, which is relatively reasonable compared to the industry average of 16.6x [3]. - Key growth drivers include fluctuations in API prices, the speed of innovative drug launches, and updates on centralized procurement policies [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the company [1][3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 27.91 billion and a net profit of RMB 4.37 billion for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 2% respectively, which aligns with forecasts [1][3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue and net profit of RMB 15.99 billion and RMB 3.04 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 11% and 7% respectively [1][3]. - The life sciences and industrial testing segments experienced steady growth, while the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors faced challenges [1][3][7]. - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points in the second quarter, attributed to efficiency gains from digitalization and the expansion of higher-margin chemical testing services [1][3]. - The company anticipates a slight improvement in performance for the second half of 2024, driven by accelerated growth in traditional food and environmental testing [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 27.91 billion and a net profit of RMB 4.37 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9% and 2% [1]. - The second quarter results were RMB 15.99 billion in revenue and RMB 3.04 billion in net profit, with year-on-year growth of 11% and 7% [1][3]. Segment Performance - Life Sciences: Revenue grew by 22% year-on-year in the first half and 23% in the second quarter, driven by traditional food and environmental testing [1][3]. - Industrial Testing: Revenue increased by 14% year-on-year in the first half and 8% in the second quarter, supported by digitalization and carbon emission certification [3]. - Pharmaceutical Sector: Revenue declined by 34% year-on-year in the first half and 15% in the second quarter, although the decline rate narrowed in the second quarter [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a decrease in revenue contribution from soil testing in the second half, but anticipates accelerated growth in traditional food and environmental testing [1][3]. - The management forecasts a stable growth of approximately 20% in the traditional consumer testing segment and a recovery in semiconductor testing [2][3]. Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings per share forecast for 2024-2027 upwards by 1% to 2%, reflecting the company's performance and outlook, with a 12-month target price raised to RMB 15.0, based on a 21x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral investment rating for the covered companies, indicating a cautious outlook on the real estate sector in China [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in new housing sales, with first-hand housing sales down 23% year-on-year and second-hand housing sales showing a slight increase of 3% year-on-year [16][19]. - The report notes that the average sales area of first-hand housing has decreased by 33% year-to-date compared to the previous year, with a notable decline in sales across various city tiers [13][14]. - Inventory levels have slightly decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous month, with a total inventory month count of 26.7 months, indicating a tightening market [19][20]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - First-hand housing sales area decreased by 23% month-on-month and year-on-year, with second-tier cities showing a 7% decline [8][10]. - Year-to-date, first-hand housing sales area has averaged a 33% decline compared to the previous year, while second-hand housing sales have decreased by 3% [13][16]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the sales volume of top 100 developers may decline by 8% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the previous month's 40% decline [16]. - The report also mentions that the expectation of price increases among sellers is weakening, despite a slight increase in second-hand housing sales [16][19]. Construction and Inventory - New construction area is expected to decline by 30% to 35% year-on-year for July and August, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [3][22]. - The report tracks that the completion area is projected to decrease by nearly 20% year-on-year, with an overall expected increase of 3% for the year [22][23]. Valuation - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratios for both mainland and overseas listed developers are at historical lows, with discounts of 56% and 40% to expected net asset values, respectively [25][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][10]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's automotive parts business is experiencing stable growth, supported by the increasing demand for both fuel and new energy vehicles. The company is expected to become a competitive supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, benefiting from its entry into the high-end humanoid robot supply chain [7][10]. - The report highlights that the company's revenue, gross profit, EBIT, and net profit for Q2 2024 were RMB 354 million, RMB 121 million, RMB 64 million, and RMB 74 million respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9%, 4%, 1%, and a decline of 2% in net profit [2][6]. - The report notes a slowdown in the growth rate of the automotive parts business, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in the first half of 2024 compared to 20% in 2023. The decline is attributed to seasonal factors and a slowdown in the downstream market [2][3]. Financial Overview - Q2 2024 financials: Revenue of RMB 354 million (+9% YoY), Gross Profit of RMB 121 million (+4% YoY), EBIT of RMB 64 million (-8% YoY), and Net Profit of RMB 74 million (-2% YoY) [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 34%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - The company expects to achieve approximately RMB 10 million in sales from its machine tool components by the end of the year, with positive progress in commercializing ball screws and linear guide products [3][5]. Market Outlook - The management anticipates a recovery in the growth rate of the automotive parts business in the second half of 2024, with turbocharger component revenue expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans for a factory in Anhui to begin mass production in Q4 2024 and a new facility in Thailand expected to start construction in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. - The report projects that the company will capture 5% of the global market share in high-end humanoid robot planetary roller screws by 2024, increasing to 15% by 2025 and contributing 8% to incremental revenue by 2027 [7][10].