2024年8月13日 | 7:49AM CST 华测检测 (300012.SZ) 2024年上半年业绩符合预测，毛利率好于预期，下半年小幅改善；维持中性评级 8月11日，华测检测公布2024年上半年实现收入/净利润人民币27.91亿/4.37亿元（同 比+9%/+2%），与业绩预告一致，较高盛预测高1%/持平。2024年二季度实现收入/净 利润人民币15.99亿/3.04亿元，同比增长11%/7%，较高盛预测高1%/低1%，基本符合 预期。生命科学和工业测试板块收入稳健增长，但医药医学、半导体和易马(Imat)业务 面临的不利局面带来小幅抵消。2024年二季度毛利率同比上升2个百分点，主要得益 于持续数字化带来的效率提升以及利润率更高的化学相关检测业务扩张。其他亮点包 括土壤三普确认收入超人民币2亿元，以及医药医学板块同比下行趋势显著收窄（从 2024年一季度的同比-49%收窄至二季度的-15%）。展望下半年，华测检测预计土壤 三普的收入贡献将不及上半年，但传统食品和环境检测业务增长将加速。我们参加了 公司8月12日举行的业绩电话会，要点如下： 证券研究报告 Research | Equity 杜茜 +86( ...

2024年8月13日 | 7:09AM CST | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 中国 房地产 第三十二周综述:一手 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][10]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's automotive parts business is experiencing stable growth, supported by the increasing demand for both fuel and new energy vehicles. The company is expected to become a competitive supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, benefiting from its entry into the high-end humanoid robot supply chain [7][10]. - The report highlights that the company's revenue, gross profit, EBIT, and net profit for Q2 2024 were RMB 354 million, RMB 121 million, RMB 64 million, and RMB 74 million respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9%, 4%, 1%, and a decline of 2% in net profit [2][6]. - The report notes a slowdown in the growth rate of the automotive parts business, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in the first half of 2024 compared to 20% in 2023. The decline is attributed to seasonal factors and a slowdown in the downstream market [2][3]. Financial Overview - Q2 2024 financials: Revenue of RMB 354 million (+9% YoY), Gross Profit of RMB 121 million (+4% YoY), EBIT of RMB 64 million (-8% YoY), and Net Profit of RMB 74 million (-2% YoY) [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 34%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - The company expects to achieve approximately RMB 10 million in sales from its machine tool components by the end of the year, with positive progress in commercializing ball screws and linear guide products [3][5]. Market Outlook - The management anticipates a recovery in the growth rate of the automotive parts business in the second half of 2024, with turbocharger component revenue expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans for a factory in Anhui to begin mass production in Q4 2024 and a new facility in Thailand expected to start construction in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. - The report projects that the company will capture 5% of the global market share in high-end humanoid robot planetary roller screws by 2024, increasing to 15% by 2025 and contributing 8% to incremental revenue by 2027 [7][10].

2024年8月11日 | 11:01AM EDT 全球经济分析 w 哪些因素决定了各国中性实际利率的差异? ■ 中性实际利率(r*)是既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的均衡实际政策利率,可在通胀率 稳定的情况下将产出维持于潜在水平,它是货币政策和金融市场的重要基准锚 定。 ■ 在2020年新冠疫情爆发之前的几年时间里,投资者、决策者和经济学界一致认 为,美国和其他主要发达经济体的中性利率已大幅下降。我们对这一观点持怀疑 态度,认为它夸大了中性实际利率的可能降幅。近期估算表明,在疫情之后,美 国和其他主要发达经济体的中性利率水平更高。 ■ 虽然围绕主要发达经济体中性实际利率的发展存在大量研究,但对于其他经济体 中性利率的关注较少。在本文中,我们基于12个发达经济体和24个新兴经济体的 市场估测中性实际利率探讨了中性实际利率的发展情况和各国差异的驱动因素。 以下是我们的几点发现: ■ 第一,过去25年新兴市场和发达市场中性实际利率的发展主要受到美国/全球中性 实际利率变化的推动,这对其他经济体几乎产生了一对一的影响。国家特定利差 总体上保持稳定,在一些经济体中下降,而在其他经济体中上升。 ■ 第二,最近五年(2020-2 ...

Election Dynamics and Polling Trends - The presidential race has shifted significantly, with Vice President Harris now leading by around 3pp nationally, up from a 1pp lead earlier [4][6] - Harris has gained ground in key swing states, particularly in Sunbelt states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, where her support has increased by 5pp on average [6] - The race remains highly competitive, with 7 swing states worth a combined 100 electoral votes now within roughly 2pp of even [6][7] Policy Implications of Election Outcomes - A Democratic sweep could lead to significant fiscal legislation in 2025, including higher corporate and high-income taxes, expanded family benefits, and new welfare programs [2] - In a divided government scenario, policy changes would be more limited, with only the expiration of certain 2017 tax cuts for high-income individuals likely to occur [2] - Harris is expected to release an economic plan soon, which may resemble Biden's budget proposal but with additional spending on areas like healthcare, childcare, and housing [40] Congressional and Senate Outlook - Democrats hold a slight 0.8pp lead in the generic ballot for the House, but the Senate remains highly competitive, with Democrats likely to lose Sen Manchin's seat in West Virginia [30][35] - Prediction markets now favor a Harris win with divided government as the most likely outcome, overtaking the previous consensus of a Republican sweep [37][38] - A Democratic House and Republican Senate would likely shift the political center slightly to the left, given the Senate's historical tendency to operate closer to the center [39] Economic and Market Influences - Economic indicators like GDP growth, consumption, and payrolls have a stronger relationship with election outcomes than equity market moves, particularly earlier in the election year [19][22] - A rise in the unemployment rate could negatively impact the incumbent party, with each 0.1pp increase associated with a 0.4pp reduction in the Democratic vote share [23] - Voters' trust in handling the economy remains mixed, with recent polls showing Harris gaining a slim advantage, though Trump still leads in some key states [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) and a "Neutral" rating to United Imaging (688271.SS) [21][22]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the procurement amount for major medical devices in China is gradually improving, although it has not yet reached a turning point. The procurement amounts for five out of seven tracked medical devices increased month-on-month in July 2024, while year-on-year growth remains negative for all seven devices [5][6]. - The report anticipates that market growth will normalize in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, driven by a reduction in the impact of anti-corruption measures [5][6]. - Mindray Medical is expected to benefit from multiple growth drivers, including a recovery in procurement activities and the latest developments in medical equipment update policies [21]. - United Imaging is positioned to lead the domestic replacement process in medical imaging equipment, with significant market share growth expected in MRI and CT devices by 2032 [22]. Summary by Sections Mindray Medical - Mindray Medical is a leading medical device manufacturer in China, focusing on patient monitoring systems, medical imaging, and in vitro diagnostics. Domestic market revenue accounted for 61% of total revenue in 2023 [21]. - The stock is currently trading below its five-year average P/E ratio, primarily due to policy risks. The company is expected to maintain its market leadership due to a strong product portfolio and competitive pricing [21]. - The 12-month price target for Mindray Medical is set at RMB 450, with an implied upside of 73.2% from the current price of RMB 259.78 [25]. United Imaging - United Imaging is recognized as a leader in medical imaging equipment in China, with a projected market size increase from RMB 53.5 billion in 2021 to RMB 101 billion by 2032 [22]. - The company is expected to capture significant market share in MRI and CT devices, with annual revenue growth projected at 18.6% over the next 11 years [22]. - The 12-month price target for United Imaging is RMB 149, with an implied upside of 29.4% from the current price of RMB 115.13 [26].

2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 2024年8月12日 | 6:31PM EDT 美国经济日评: 7月份CPI前瞻 | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | n | Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 \| jan.hatzius@gs.com 高盛集团 | | | Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 \| alec.phillips@gs.com 高盛集团 | | n | David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 \| david.mericle@gs.com 高盛集团 | | | Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 \| ronnie.walker@gs.com 高盛集团 | | | Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 \| manuel.abecasis@gs.com 高盛集团 | | n | Tim ...

2024年8月12日 | 9:11AM CST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 宏发股份 (600885.SS): 2024年二季度业绩符合预期，汽 车继电器业务表现好于预期，2024年公司指引上调；买入 宏发股份在8月8日盘后公布的2024年二季度业绩显示，公司实现收入/毛利/EBIT/净利 润人民币37.78亿/13.09亿/6.76亿/4.88亿元（同比+11%/+7%/+1%/+28%），较我们 的预测高4%/低1%/高4%/高14%。剔除2023年二季度非经常性项目（远期外汇合约公 允价值变动损失人民币1.32亿元）的基数因素影响后，2024年二季度净利润同比下降 6%。总体而言，公司已将2024年收入指引从同比增长7-13%上调至目前的同比增长 10-15%。我们预计公司收入将同比增长15%，处于指引区间高端，得益于强劲的订单 势头（目前在手订单为2-3个月，而生产周期为1个月，2024年上半年产能利用率回升 至80-85%，而2023年为70%）。我们预计：1) 国内电力继电器招标强劲，2024年下 半年收入确认潜在走强；2) 高压直流继电器收入将保持增长势头； ...

2024年8月5日 | 7:59PM EDT 明好于预期（实现每股盈利同比增长11%，而预期为9%），因为销售收入和利润率均 高于预期。 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 美股观点 对最近市场下挫的思考 (摘要) | | | 过去三天，由于投资者对美国经济增长持久性的担忧弥漫在金融市场，标普500指数 下跌了 6 ...

2024年8月7日 | 3:45PM CST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 福耀玻璃 (600660.SS/3606.HK) 2Q24业绩分析：领先的销量增长、均价改善以 及利润率上升推动业绩大幅好于预期；买入 福耀玻璃公布的2024年二季度业绩大幅超出我们和市场的预测（请参见我们基于业绩 快报的简要分析）。福耀玻璃表示，显著超预期的业绩表现主要得益于销量增速领 先、均价提升和利润率提高，我们认为这些因素在未来的经营中都具有可持续性。我 们在本文中具体分析了管理层在业绩说明会上阐述的四大利好因素，我们认为它们也 为持续的业务扩张奠定了基础：1）美国工厂最新情况：管理层重申调查对象是第三方 劳务公司，而非福耀美国，管理层认为福耀在美国运营合规，遵守当地法律法规；因 此，其扩大美国生产的业务战略保持不变；2）销量增长领先，福耀玻璃2024年上半 年汽车玻璃销量同比增长16%，而全球汽车销量同比增速不到1%；管理层预计日后将 延续类似的增长势头；3）销售均价提升符合预期，福耀玻璃销售均价同比上涨 8.3%，管理层表示有清晰的可预见性显示未来5年均价有望同比上涨7%-8%；4）国内 ...