Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Meituan, JD, Alibaba, Guming, Mixue, and Yum China, with specific target prices set for each company [18][24][25][26][27][36]. Core Insights - The food delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in daily order volumes, reaching approximately 120 million, driven by competitive subsidies and evolving consumer behavior [2][20]. - Meituan is expected to maintain its leadership in the food delivery market, with a projected market share of 60-65%, while JD and Taobao Instant Shopping/Ele.me are estimated to hold 10-15% and 25-28% market shares, respectively [11][18]. - The competition among food delivery platforms has intensified, particularly between Meituan, JD, and Taobao Instant Shopping, leading to aggressive subsidy strategies and increased order volumes [2][8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The food delivery market has expanded due to platform subsidies, resulting in an increase of around 30 million incremental daily orders, with 15 million of these being beverage orders, which are less likely to sustain post-subsidy normalization [12][20]. - The effective take rate for merchants in the industry has decreased to the low 20% range, down from mid-20% levels, indicating increased pressure on margins due to competition [10]. Company Strategies - Meituan has shifted to more aggressive strategies to defend its market share, including targeted subsidies and differentiated offerings [8]. - JD has ramped up its order volumes to 25 million daily, leveraging its delivery capabilities and expanding its on-demand retail offerings [24]. - Taobao Instant Shopping has initiated aggressive subsidy campaigns to enhance its market position, benefiting from traffic support from its main apps [10]. Long-term Projections - The expert forecasts that JD's loss per order will peak in Q2 2025, with gradual improvements expected by Q4 2025 [11]. - The long-term competitive landscape suggests that Meituan will continue to dominate, while JD and Taobao Instant Shopping will need to adapt to maintain their market positions [11][18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that platinum prices are likely to fall back within the historical range of $800-$1,150 per troy ounce, indicating a cautious outlook on sustained price increases [1][10][12]. Core Insights - The recent surge in platinum prices to $1,280 per troy ounce was primarily driven by speculative and ETF demand, making a sustained breakout unlikely due to price sensitivity in key markets, particularly China [6][12]. - Chinese demand for platinum is highly price-sensitive, with significant buying occurring at lower prices, which has contributed to the metal's range-bound trading over the past decade [4][18]. - The automotive sector is facing downside pressure on platinum demand due to China's rapid transition to electric vehicles (EVs), which reduces the long-term need for platinum in autocatalysts [26][32]. - Global platinum supply is expected to remain stable to moderately higher, primarily driven by South African production, which constitutes about 70% of global output [2][33]. Summary by Sections Price Dynamics - Platinum prices have historically fluctuated between $800 and $1,150 per troy ounce, with a recent spike attributed to speculative trading and ETF investments [1][10][12]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) estimates a supply deficit of approximately 1 million troy ounces, or about 20% of annual mining production, for the current year [13]. Demand Factors - Chinese demand, which accounts for around 60% of new annual platinum production, is significantly influenced by price levels, leading to reduced purchases when prices rise [4][18]. - The shift towards EVs in China is expected to diminish long-term demand for platinum in the automotive sector, while increasing scrap availability from retired internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles [26][32]. Supply Outlook - The report anticipates stable to moderately higher global platinum supply unless South African power constraints re-emerge, with guidance from major miners indicating a moderate increase in production [2][33]. - South Africa's platinum production is largely a byproduct of other metals, and the profitability of mining operations is influenced by the overall PGM basket price rather than solely the platinum price [45][49].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the total alcoholic beverage market, with a decline of -3.9% in sales for the two weeks ending May 31, 2025, compared to previous periods [1]. Core Insights - The total alcoholic beverage market is experiencing continued pressure on volumes, with a worsening trend of -5.9% in volume sales against a slight pricing growth of +2.2% [1]. - The beer category specifically saw a decline of -4.2% in sales, with volume down -5.8% and pricing growth remaining flat at +1.5% [2]. - The FMB (Flavored Malt Beverages) category faced a significant decline of -8.0% in sales, with hard seltzer sales down -10.5% [3]. - Spirit-based RTD (Ready-to-Drink) sales showed some growth at +12.8%, while wine-based RTD sales increased by +32.5% [6]. Summary by Category Total Alcoholic Beverage Market - Total U.S. market sales reached $73.699 billion, with a year-over-year decline of -3.9% in dollar sales and -5.9% in volume [7]. Beer Category - The beer category accounted for $38.656 billion, with a sales decline of -4.2% and volume down -5.8% [7]. - Notable brands like Bud Light experienced a significant sales drop of -10.8% year-over-year [2]. FMB and Hard Seltzer - The FMB category saw a decline of -8.0%, while hard seltzer sales decreased by -10.5% [3]. - Brands like Truly faced a substantial decline of -21.2% in sales [3]. Spirits and RTD - Spirit-based RTD sales increased by +12.8%, while wine-based RTD sales grew by +32.5% [6]. Promotional Spending - Total U.S. market promotional spending across alcoholic categories was 23.9%, remaining below 2019 levels [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) with a 12-month price target of $242, indicating an upside potential of 20.4% from the current price of $201 [6][7]. Core Insights - The strategic vision for the Discover network is focused on expanding international acceptance through partnerships with merchant acquirers, other networks, financial institutions, and merchants. The emphasis is on building acceptance and consolidating technology during the integration phase [1]. - The state of the consumer appears strong, with low unemployment, rising real wages, and consumer debt levels consistent with pre-pandemic times. COF has seen better-than-expected credit performance, and the deferred non-charge-off (NCO) phenomenon is ending, which is expected to positively impact credit performance [2]. - COF's path to capital return is becoming clearer, with expectations of receiving CCAR results in June. The company plans to operate with a CET1 ratio just shy of 14%, allowing for significant buyback authorization in late Q2 or early Q3 [5]. Summary by Sections Strategic Vision - COF is committed to expanding the Discover network internationally, focusing on building acceptance and consolidating technology during the integration period [1]. Consumer State - The consumer market remains robust, with strong employment and wage growth, alongside manageable debt levels. Credit performance has exceeded expectations, and growth in the auto sector is being pursued despite concerns over vehicle prices [2]. Capital Return - COF is preparing for increased capital returns, with a CET1 ratio target of nearly 14% and plans for a large buyback authorization expected in the near future [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to PKO Bank Polski with a 12-month price target of PLN 88.00, indicating an upside potential of 20.7% from the current price of PLN 72.88 [11][12]. Core Insights - Management expects a resilient net interest income (NII) and return on equity (ROE) outlook, reiterating an ROE expectation of over 18% in the medium term [2][7]. - The macroeconomic outlook suggests a more expansionary fiscal policy from the ruling party, which is anticipated to stimulate economic and lending growth in the banking sector [3]. - The company expects significant corporate lending growth due to the disbursement of European Union funds for energy transition and infrastructure projects [3]. - The interest rate outlook is leaning towards a "higher-for-longer" scenario, which is expected to support NIMs in the short term, with FY25E NIM guidance reaffirmed at no less than 4.8% [4][7]. - PKO anticipates that 2025 will be the last year of material provisioning for CHF-denominated mortgages, with costs expected to be lower than in 2024 [10]. Summary by Sections Macro and Banking Sector Outlook - The company anticipates a more expansionary fiscal policy that will stimulate economic growth and lending in the banking sector [3]. - A significant boost to corporate lending is expected from EU funds allocated for energy transition projects [3]. Net Interest Margins and Policy Rates - The Monetary Policy Council's hawkish stance suggests no rate cuts are expected in the near term, supporting a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment [4]. - PKO has reaffirmed its FY25E NIM guidance at a minimum of 4.8% [4]. Lending and Fee Income - Despite potential headwinds for NIMs, PKO expects strong growth in lending volumes and improving fee income, supported by disciplined cost management [7]. Regulatory Environment - There is currently no political momentum for increasing bank taxes in Poland, and no reductions to existing bank levies are expected [8]. - The company does not foresee material risks related to the ongoing legal challenges against WIBOR-based benchmarks [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Mitsubishi Electric (MELCO) [2][14][17]. Core Insights - Mitsubishi Electric is undergoing significant management changes aimed at shifting from a Japan-centric approach to a more global and innovative strategy. The management is committed to qualitative changes and enhancing corporate value over the medium to long term [2][14]. - The company has a strong financial position, highlighted by a net cash position and a recent ¥100 billion share buyback to reduce its cost of capital. However, it recognizes the need for a robust growth strategy, including a ¥1 trillion M&A budget to encourage business divisions to leverage their strengths [2][3][14]. - MELCO aims to achieve a market capitalization of ¥10 trillion, which it believes cannot be accomplished with its current approach. The company is focused on becoming more innovative and willing to take risks [8][14]. Summary by Sections M&A Strategy - MELCO has set a ¥1 trillion M&A budget to pursue opportunities in the digital transformation field, acknowledging the high valuations in this sector. The company is also looking to consolidate its software business around ICONICS, which it acquired in 2019 [3][14]. Business Restructuring - The company plans to significantly reduce headcount in its factory automation (FA) business and is reviewing businesses with combined annual sales of ¥1.3 trillion, including exiting low-margin businesses and downsizing overseas production facilities [1][6][14]. - MELCO is considering restructuring its automotive business, which generates around ¥700 billion in annual sales, and is also reviewing its core FA business [9][14]. Digital Strategy - The FA solutions division has developed a cloud-based system for data updates, allowing customers to monitor equipment status via smartphones. Each business division has been tasked with finding ways to leverage the Serendie digital platform [7][14]. Financial Performance - The report projects revenue growth for MELCO, with expected revenues of ¥5,521.7 billion for FY3/25, increasing to ¥6,161.0 billion by FY3/28. Operating profit is also expected to rise from ¥391.9 billion in FY3/25 to ¥590.6 billion in FY3/28 [17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Insmed Inc. (INSM) with a 12-month price target of $112, representing an upside potential of 58.5% from the current price of $70.68 [21]. Core Insights - Insmed Inc. reported positive topline data from the Phase 2b TPIP PAH trial, meeting all primary and secondary efficacy endpoints, which resulted in a 35% placebo-adjusted reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) and a 35.5m placebo-adjusted improvement in the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) [1][2]. - The data suggests that TPIP has the potential to significantly alter the pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) treatment landscape, with a new gross sales estimate of $1.55 billion in PAH alone and $3.2 billion across both PAH and PH-ILD [1][16]. - The report highlights the pharmacologic advantages of TPIP, including its once-daily formulation, which is expected to improve patient compliance compared to competitors that require more frequent dosing [16]. Summary by Sections Efficacy Data - TPIP achieved a 35% placebo-adjusted reduction in PVR at week 16, significantly exceeding the company's best-case scenario of 25% [2]. - The trial also demonstrated a 60% placebo-adjusted reduction in NT-proBNP and a 15% placebo-adjusted improvement in cardiac index, indicating strong efficacy [7][16]. Safety Profile - TPIP was generally well tolerated, with 95% of patients completing the study and enrolling in the open-label extension study [6]. - Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) occurred in 88.4% of TPIP patients, with serious TEAEs observed in 7.2% [8]. Market Potential - The addressable PAH population is estimated at approximately 90,000 patients, with management's expectations for peak sales of over $2 billion likely to be revised higher based on the positive trial results [16]. - The report emphasizes that TPIP's once-daily dosing and pharmacologic profile position it as a best-in-class prostanoid, potentially disrupting the current treatment landscape for PAH [16].

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on Cameco Corp. (CCJ) with a 12-month price target of $78.00, indicating an upside potential of 16.6% from the current price of $66.91 [15]. Core Insights - The Czech Republic and South Korea have reached an agreement on a $19 billion project for two nuclear reactors, which is expected to significantly boost Westinghouse's revenue and EBITDA, of which CCJ owns a 49% stake [1][3]. - Westinghouse is in discussions to deploy 10 large reactors in the US, which could further enhance its revenue growth, aligning with the US government's goal of having 10 new reactors under construction by 2030 [5][8]. - The Dukovany project is projected to increase Westinghouse's EBITDA by approximately $340 million in 2025, leading to an adjusted EBITDA range for CCJ of $525 million to $575 million for the year [6][10]. Summary by Sections Westinghouse/KHNP Agreement - A framework agreement was established between Westinghouse and Korean companies for reactor deployments, which is expected to benefit both parties [2]. KHNP/Czech Deal - The deal for two reactors at the Dukovany atomic plant is anticipated to provide significant financial benefits to Westinghouse, with expected revenue streams from both upfront payments and ongoing project revenues [3][6]. US Exposure to New Builds - The Trump Administration's executive orders aim for 10 new nuclear reactors by 2030, positioning Westinghouse as a key player in future reactor builds in the US [5][8]. EBITDA Impact from Korea/Czech Deal - The Dukovany project is expected to contribute an additional $170 million to Westinghouse's EBITDA, enhancing CCJ's financial outlook [6][10]. Additional Implications from Korea Deal - There is potential for further revenue upside from engineering and procurement work related to the Dukovany project, although the exact benefits remain uncertain [7]. New Builds and Revenue Growth - Westinghouse is also in talks for nuclear projects in Poland and Bulgaria, which could contribute to its revenue and EBITDA growth [8][10]. Valuation Changes - Adjusted EBITDA estimates for CCJ have been revised upwards for 2025-2027, reflecting anticipated revenue growth from new reactor builds [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) since May 13, 2025, with a current price of $105.49 and a target price of $119.00, indicating an upside potential of 12.8% [8][34]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Accession Risk Management Group for approximately $9.825 billion is expected to enhance BRO's scale and accelerate its revenue growth towards an intermediate goal of $8 billion [2][20]. - The deal is projected to close in the third quarter of 2025 and is anticipated to generate synergies of around $150 million by 2028, which will improve BRO's diversification and reduce its exposure to property catastrophe risks [1][20]. - The acquisition is expected to be accretive to BRO's earnings per share (EPS) by approximately 8% to 13% in 2026, driven by additional earnings from Accession and cost synergies [21][22]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - BRO announced the acquisition of Accession for a total consideration of $9.825 billion, which translates to a multiple of approximately 15.7x on Accession's 2024 adjusted EBITDAC [1]. - The deal is expected to close in Q3 2025, with BRO having already cleared the necessary antitrust waiting period [1]. Strategic Rationale - The acquisition aligns with BRO's strategy to gain scale in the U.S. retail P&C brokerage and employee benefits sectors, enhancing its presence in the middle-market segment [2]. - Accession's business model and geographic focus are similar to BRO's, which is expected to facilitate integration and operational synergies [2][30]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts for BRO, including adjusted net income estimates of $1.1 billion for 2024, increasing to $1.475 billion by 2027, with corresponding EPS growth from $3.86 to $5.18 [3][14]. - The expected revenue growth for Accession in 2025 is projected at 9%, with a slowdown anticipated from 17% growth in 2024 due to market conditions [24][19]. Valuation Metrics - The implied EV/NTM Adj. EBITDAC multiple for the acquisition is estimated to be in the range of 13.1x to 14.9x, which is competitive compared to industry peers [18][26]. - BRO's financial ratios indicate a P/E ratio of 24.2 for 2024, decreasing to 20.4 by 2027, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Energisa, Equatorial, and Copel, while Cemig is rated as "Sell" [6][64][50]. Core Insights - The new power distribution opex methodology approved by the regulator aims to enhance efficiency sharing with consumers, impacting the fair equity values of the companies covered [7][21]. - Energisa and Equatorial are the most exposed to the new methodology, with estimated impacts of -9% and -8% on their fair equity values, respectively [2][8]. - Despite recent market rallies, the sector remains reasonably valued, with an average real spread of approximately 3.8% to Brazil's free risk bonds [3]. Summary by Sections New Opex Methodology - The new methodology includes annual updates to reference opex, a simplified benchmark model, and the application of the IPCA index for all variables [7][21]. - Cost outperformance sharing with consumers is now correlated to median sectoral efficiency, with limits set at 140%/60% for cost outperformance [21][28]. Company-Specific Adjustments - Energisa's fair equity value is adjusted down by -9% due to the new methodology and updated power demand forecasts, with a revised 2025E growth estimate of 0.5% YoY [49][50]. - Equatorial's fair equity value is adjusted down by -8%, with a similar revision in growth estimates to 0.5% YoY for 2025E [63][64]. - Copel is the least affected, with a -3% impact on fair equity value [2][8]. Market Demand and Forecasts - The report incorporates updated forecasts from Brazil's independent power system operator, indicating a decrease in power demand growth, with a -4% YoY drop noted in April and May 2025 [44][45]. - The overall demand forecast for 2025E has been revised down to -3.1% YoY from a previous estimate of +0.4% YoY [44][45].