Investment Rating - The report maintains a price forecast for Brent crude oil averaging $59 in Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026 despite an increase in OPEC+ production quotas [2][9][18] Core Insights - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 0.55 million barrels per day (mb/d) for August, exceeding both consensus and previous expectations [2][3] - The report anticipates a further increase of 0.55 mb/d for September, completing the return of 2.2 mb/d of cuts and a 0.3 mb/d increase in UAE production [4][6] - The rationale behind these increases includes a steady global economic outlook and resilient demand, as indicated by low oil inventories [3][5] - Compliance with OPEC+ compensation cuts has been stronger than expected, contributing to the revised production assumptions [9][10] - The report highlights that reduced OPEC+ spare capacity is likely to raise long-dated oil prices, estimating a decline in global spare capacity to 2.5-4% of global demand by September 2025 [14][18] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Adjustments - OPEC+ has announced a total production increase of 1.92 mb/d, which corresponds to 78% of the total voluntary cuts and the increase in UAE production [3][4] - The expected rise in OPEC+ crude production from March to September is projected to be 1.67 mb/d, reaching 33.2 mb/d by September [6][12] Price Forecast and Market Dynamics - The report keeps the price forecast stable despite the production increases, citing stronger compliance with cuts and potential upside risks to demand forecasts [9][14] - The anticipated increase in global oil demand is projected at 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026, driven by robust demand from China and global economic activity [14][21] Compliance and Production Realization - The report notes that actual increases in OPEC+ production have been in line with quotas after adjusting for compensation cuts, with a significant portion of the increase attributed to Saudi Arabia [10][13] - The compliance rates among OPEC+ members have varied, with some countries exceeding their required production levels [10][13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Lens Tech (300433.SZ) as it is categorized as "Not Covered" [1]. Core Insights - Management is optimistic about the demand for foldable phones, driven by differentiation, new use cases, and improved technology that enhances user experience [1][4]. - The company is diversifying its end markets beyond smartphones to include vehicle glass, AI glasses, and robotics, which supports long-term growth [1][8]. Summary by Sections Foldable Phones - Foldable phones are expected to drive significant growth, with management highlighting strong market demand and potential for increased shipments [4][7]. - The global shipment penetration rate for foldable phones is projected to rise from 1.5% in 2024 to 4.1% by 2027, excluding iPhones [2]. Vehicle Glass Expansion - Lens Tech is expanding into vehicle glasses, leveraging its experience in smartphone glass to provide high-precision and lighter-weight solutions for leading car OEMs [8]. - The company is collaborating with over 30 electric vehicle manufacturers, indicating a strategic move into the automotive sector [9]. Long-Term Outlook - Revenue growth in 2025 is anticipated to be bolstered by new smartphone model launches and the increasing trend of foldable phones [9]. - Contributions from vehicle glasses and AI/AR glasses are expected to ramp up over the long term, driven by rising popularity and affordability [9].

6 July 2025 | 11:36PM KST Vietnam: US-Vietnam Trade Deal: 20% US Tariffs (40% for Transshipment) Bottom line: On July 2, President Trump announced a new trade deal between the US and Vietnam. It includes a 20% tariff on US imports from Vietnam, a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, and zero tariffs on Vietnamese imports from the US. Since over one-third of Vietnam's intermediate imports come from China, Chinese goods routed through Vietnam could be significantly affected by the 40% tariff. Mai ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, MediaTek, and ASE, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the semiconductor industry [30][12][20]. Core Insights - There is a resurgence in investor sentiment around AI, particularly following Computex in mid-May, although many investors remain underexposed and cautious as they approach the typically soft third quarter [2][1]. - TSMC is expected to benefit from easing concerns over AI order cuts and increasing demand for advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS, with a projected revenue growth of 28.7% YoY in 2025 [5][6]. - MediaTek's AI ASIC project faces potential delays, but the long-term growth story in the ASIC market remains intact, with expectations of a 16% revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [8][17]. - ASE is seeing increased investor interest due to its advancements in advanced packaging technology, with expectations for significant capacity increases in the coming years [10][11]. Summary by Company TSMC - TSMC is positioned as a leading global foundry with over 60% market share, expected to achieve a 20% revenue CAGR driven by AI and HPC demand [12][15]. - The target price for TSMC is set at NT$1,210, based on a P/E multiple of 20x [13][14]. MediaTek - MediaTek is transitioning towards AI applications, with a focus on smartphone processors and enterprise ASICs, aiming for a significant share in the US$45 billion ASIC market [17][8]. - The target price for MediaTek is NT$1,800, based on a P/E multiple of 20x [18]. ASE - ASE is recognized for its leadership in semiconductor assembly and test services, with a focus on advanced packaging technologies [19]. - The target price for ASE is NT$165, derived from a P/E multiple of 18x [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Zijin-H/A, CMOC-H/A, and MMG [2][45]. Core Insights - Chinese metal demand has shown resilience year-to-date, but growth is largely front-loaded, particularly in renewables and stimulatory consumption from the automotive and appliance sectors [1][19]. - A deceleration in demand growth for copper and aluminum is expected in the second half of 2025, with potential deeper corrections in 2026, particularly for aluminum [1][3]. - The report highlights a potential 1.2% year-on-year growth for copper and a -2.0% decline for aluminum in 2H25E, driven by a slowdown in domestic renewables [3][13]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Total copper demand in China grew by 5% and 14% year-on-year in the first two quarters of 2025, while aluminum demand increased by 4% and 7% [14][17]. - The growth in copper demand is significantly influenced by rush installations in renewables, contributing 70% to the overall growth in 2Q25E [20][24]. - The report estimates that the trade-in program for electric vehicles and air conditioners contributed approximately 0.8% to copper demand growth and 1.2% to aluminum demand growth in 2Q25E [25][27]. Earnings Revisions - Earnings for Chinese copper companies under coverage have been revised down by 7% to up by 21% for 2025E-27E, reflecting updated commodity price forecasts [2][45]. - Target prices for Zijin and CMOC have been adjusted upwards, while MMG's earnings forecast has been revised down by 7% to 17% for the same period [45][46]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a tighter supply situation in the copper market due to a shortage of scrap, which may offset some negative demand outlooks [31][32]. - The ongoing US-China tariff situation has had a less severe impact on metal demand than previously feared, with a shift in production for US-bound shipments to non-China factories [23][29].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies IGO, NST, NEM, CMM, BGL, VAU, WGX, and PNR, while recommending a "Sell" rating for MIN and RRL [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential upside for various companies based on their current pricing and NAV valuations, with IGO showing a 2% downside to its price target and NST having a 14% upside [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold and lithium sectors, with specific companies positioned favorably for growth [4][8]. Company Summaries - **IGO**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.1 billion, current price A$4.32, and a 12-month price target of A$5.03, indicating a 2% downside [4]. - **NST**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$17.4 billion, current price A$18.56, and a 12-month price target of A$22.53, indicating a 14% upside [4]. - **NEM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$66.7 billion, current price A$90.58, and a 12-month price target of A$98.83, indicating a 7% upside [4]. - **CMM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.7 billion, current price A$9.44, and a 12-month price target of A$10.09, indicating a 6% upside [4]. - **BGL**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$0.9 billion, current price A$0.93, and a 12-month price target of A$0.97, indicating a 29% upside [4]. - **MIN**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$3.2 billion, current price A$24.44, and a 12-month price target of A$20.30, indicating an 18% downside [4]. - **RRL**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$2.2 billion, current price A$4.53, and a 12-month price target of A$4.24, indicating a 1% downside [4]. Commodity & FX Forecasts - The report includes forecasts for various commodities, with gold expected to reach US$3,503 per ounce in Q4 2025 and lithium carbonate projected at US$8,005 per ton in 2025 [8]. - Nickel prices are forecasted to stabilize around US$7.17 per pound in Q4 2025, while copper is expected to be around US$4.52 per pound [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Zijin-H/A, CMOC-H/A, and MMG [2][45]. Core Insights - Chinese metal demand has shown resilience year-to-date, but growth is largely front-loaded, particularly in renewables and stimulatory consumption from the automotive and appliance sectors [1][19]. - A deceleration in demand growth for copper and aluminum is expected in the second half of 2025, with potential deeper corrections in 2026, particularly for aluminum [1][3]. - The report highlights a potential 1.2% year-on-year growth for copper and a -2.0% decline for aluminum in 2H25E, driven by a slowdown in domestic renewables [3][13]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Chinese total copper demand grew by 5% and 14% year-on-year in the first two quarters of the year, while aluminum demand increased by 4% and 7% [14][17]. - The growth in copper demand in 2Q25E was significantly influenced by rush installations in renewables, contributing 70% to the overall growth [20][24]. - The stimulatory consumption from the trade-in program for air conditioners and autos contributed an additional 0.8% growth to copper demand [21][25]. Earnings Revisions - Earnings for Chinese copper companies have been revised down by 7% to up by 21% for 2025E-27E, reflecting updated commodity price forecasts [2][45]. - Target prices for Zijin, CMOC, and MMG have been adjusted upwards, with Zijin's target price revised to HK$26.5/Rmb28.5 and CMOC's to HK$9.5/Rmb11.5 [45][46]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a tighter supply situation in the copper market due to a shortage of scrap, which may offset some negative demand outlooks [31][32]. - The ongoing US-China tariff situation has had a lesser impact on metal demand than previously feared, with a shift in production for US-bound shipments to non-China factories [23][29].

4 July 2025 | 9:17AM BST European Economics Analyst EU—Trade Talks With the US: To Deal or Not To Deal (Pierdomenico/Taddei) Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Giovanni Pierdomenico +44(20)7051-6807 | giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/re ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to ASML Holding with a 12-month price target of €910, indicating an upside potential of 34.3% from the current price of €677.60 [10][13]. Core Insights - ASML's growth expectations for 2026 are supported by strong demand for leading-edge Logic and advanced Memory applications, alongside a recovery in trailing-edge spending, with a projected 8% year-over-year top-line growth [3][4]. - The sustainability of AI-related semiconductor demand is viewed positively, with expectations that AI will continue to drive demand for leading-edge chips [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of order intake, noting that ASML requires quarterly orders of €4-5 billion to meet sell-side consensus estimates for 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Key Drivers of Growth - ASML anticipates growth in 2026 driven by leading-edge Logic, advanced Memory applications (such as HBM), and a recovery in trailing-edge spending [3]. - The demand for advanced Memory remains robust, with Micron increasing its HBM capacity significantly [3][5]. AI Demand Impact - Investors are keen to understand the long-term sustainability of AI-related semiconductor demand, which has seen significant spending in recent years [4]. - Positive indicators from the AI ecosystem suggest a diversification of AI applications, supporting the demand for leading-edge semiconductors [6][7]. Order Cadence - The focus has shifted to the order intake required to meet revenue estimates for 2026, with ASML needing €4-5 billion in quarterly orders [8]. - A sequential improvement in orders could act as a positive catalyst for ASML's shares [8]. Lithography Intensity - There is an increasing interest in the trajectory of Lithography intensity as the industry transitions to Gate-All-Around architecture, with expectations of re-acceleration in layer growth post-transition [8][9]. - ASML's focus on cost-effective solutions is expected to drive growth in EUV layers across Logic and Memory applications [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports Products with a target price of HK$117, based on a 21x 2027E PE discounted back to 2025E, implying a 26% upside from the current price [2][30][22]. Core Insights - Anta Group's performance in June was mixed, with solid group-level topline growth driven by smaller brands and Fila, while the core Anta brand missed expectations. The projected retail sales growth for Anta is expected to decelerate to low single digits (LSD%) year-over-year in 2Q25, while Fila is anticipated to achieve high single digits (HSD%) growth [1][2][21]. - For 1H25, the report projects a 13% year-over-year increase in group sales to RMB 38.2 billion, with smaller brands and Fila performing ahead of the full-year guidance, despite a weaker core performance from Anta [1][3][21]. - The report anticipates a reported net profit of RMB 6.85 billion for Anta Group in 1H25, reflecting an 11% year-over-year decline, but a 12% increase in recurring net profit when excluding non-cash gains from the Amer listing [20][21]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth Projections - Anta Group is expected to achieve a 13% year-over-year sales growth in 1H25, with specific brand growth rates projected as follows: Anta at 5.5%, Fila at 8.4%, Descente at 44%, and other brands at 69% [3][24][27]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is projected to contract for Anta and Fila by -0.6 percentage points and -3.7 percentage points year-over-year, respectively, while GPM for smaller brands is expected to remain largely flat [3][20]. Financial Forecasts - The net income forecast for 2025-2027 remains broadly unchanged, reflecting a better outlook for Fila and smaller brands, despite a lower gross profit margin [2][22]. - The report includes detailed financial projections for revenue, EBITDA, and EPS for the years 2025 to 2027, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 80.4 billion in 2025, RMB 89.2 billion in 2026, and RMB 97.8 billion in 2027 [7][29]. Operational Metrics - The report highlights operational metrics such as operating profit margin (OPM) for Anta at 18% and for Fila at 23% in 1H25, with expectations of margin contraction due to lower gross profit margins [20][24]. - The anticipated operating expenses for 1H25 are projected to grow by 13.3%, while operating income is expected to grow by 7.5% [24][27].