Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Longi and "Neutral" ratings to Daqo and Xinjiang Daqo New Energy, while TZE and Tongwei are rated as "Sell" [28][17][20]. Core Insights - The profitability inflection for the solar industry is expected to be delayed due to slower demand growth, with normalized earnings projected to remain low. The industry is anticipated to reach a cyclical bottom in 2025E, with a demand growth slowdown in China expected to average +6% CAGR from 2025E to 2030E, compared to +55% from 2020 to 2024 [1][15]. - The report highlights that the solar industry's capacity utilization is expected to decline to 59% from 2025E to 2030E, which is 15 percentage points lower than previous estimates. This is attributed to existing capacity cuts and a deceleration in demand growth [10][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a healthy balance sheet and strong R&D capabilities for companies navigating the cyclical bottom of the industry [1][14]. Industry Capex Trend and Capacity Addition - Capex spending in the solar industry is projected to decline further, with a forecasted -55% year-over-year decrease in solar capex for 2025E, compared to a previous estimate of -34% [2]. - The report notes that 30GW of module capacity has been terminated, including 15GW by Longi, and 12GW of module capacity has been delayed from listed players [2]. Demand Dynamics - Solar demand growth is expected to slow significantly, with a projected 25% decrease in global demand from 2026E to 2030E compared to previous estimates. This is primarily due to new regulations that limit on-grid access for large-scale solar projects and remove guaranteed on-grid volumes and prices for renewable projects [7]. - The report anticipates a rebound in China’s demand by 14% year-over-year in 2027E after a decline of -17% in 2026E, driven by better economics for commercial and industrial battery energy storage systems [7]. Capacity and Utilization - The report estimates a 17% cut in end-2024 module capacity by the end of 2026E, influenced by market access constraints and cash burn [3][10]. - The capacity utilization in China is projected to be 53% in 2025E and 52% in 2026E, with a slight recovery to 59% by 2027E [8]. Company-Specific Insights - Longi is highlighted as a leading integrated module player with strong R&D capabilities, expected to benefit from upstream price contractions and improved ROE due to Back Contact technology [16][17]. - TZE is rated as "Sell" due to anticipated headwinds from a shrinking addressable market and a stretched balance sheet amid aggressive downstream investment plans [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within the coverage Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of recent regulations on the blind box market, particularly focusing on the exposure of companies like Pop Mart, Bloks, Miniso, and Shanghai M&G to these regulations [1][2] - It highlights that companies with a more adult-skewed customer base and better control over distribution channels are less likely to be negatively impacted by the regulations [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying product offerings to mitigate risks associated with the blind box category [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Regulatory Impact - On June 20, People's Daily published an article addressing issues related to blind box purchases, particularly among minors, which led to a decline in share prices for companies in the coverage [1][3] - The article noted irrational consumption among minors and recommended stricter regulations, including age restrictions and guardian approval for purchases by minors over 8 years old [3][7] Company Exposure - Pop Mart and Bloks derive a significant portion of their revenue from blind box products, with Bloks having 63% of its revenue from this category in 2023 [2][8] - Miniso and Shanghai M&G have relatively lower exposure to blind box sales, with Miniso's toy category accounting for around 30% of its revenue [2][11] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The report indicates that regulatory news typically has a short-term negative impact on stock prices, but the long-term effects are often mitigated by strong fundamentals and earnings performance [2][8] - Historical data shows that share prices of Pop Mart and Miniso have rebounded after previous regulatory announcements, suggesting that market sentiment can recover quickly under favorable conditions [14][22] Company-Specific Strategies - Pop Mart targets an adult customer base, which may help it manage the impact of regulations, while also expanding its product offerings to include items beyond blind boxes [9][22] - Miniso's diversified product strategy and retail partner model in China help it maintain compliance and mitigate risks associated with specific categories [9][10] - Bloks faces challenges due to its high exposure to the blind box category and a distribution-heavy sales model, which may require more effort to ensure compliance with regulations [10][19] Financial Projections - The report provides sensitivity analyses for Bloks, indicating potential earnings downside risks of 15%-38% if sales from kids-related blind boxes decline significantly [10][19] - For Pop Mart, earnings forecasts have been revised upward for 2025-2027, reflecting strong growth momentum in both domestic and international markets [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Soft data has historically indicated economic slowdowns earlier than hard data, but current hard data may take longer to reflect the impact of tariffs due to frontloading of imports and spending [3][6] - Surveys and management commentary can still provide valuable insights if interpreted carefully, focusing on concrete company decisions rather than general economic impressions [4][8] - The overall commentary suggests a forecast of slower hiring, slightly higher unemployment, minimal growth in investment spending, below-potential GDP growth, and a one-time inflation rebound to the mid-3s [4][46] Hiring Insights - Companies affected by policy uncertainty and reliant on sales to China and Europe have significantly reduced job openings, while total openings have only moderately declined [12][13] - The share of companies signaling layoffs has increased slightly, but remains low compared to historical peaks, and hiring freezes have risen but are still within expansion period ranges [14][19] Investment Insights - Analysts have lowered capital spending expectations for more companies than they have raised in the last three quarters, although total capital expenditure expectations have risen due to increased AI investment [20][22] - Companies most affected by tariffs and policy uncertainty have seen larger reductions in capital spending expectations, with a notable 5-6% decrease for those with significant sales exposure to China and the EU [22][27] Production and Supply Chain Insights - Companies are increasingly concerned about tariffs impacting their supply chains but have not reported significant shortages that could disrupt production [28][31] - The report assumes that tariffs will not lead to widespread shortages, which could otherwise pose risks to inflation and GDP growth [32] Pricing Insights - Companies have announced only modest price increases this year, with expectations that consumers will absorb about 50% of the direct tariff costs, lower than the previously assumed 70% [4][43] - The limited increase in price announcements reflects a cautious approach among companies, particularly those exposed to policy uncertainty [33][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including NAURA, SICC, SUMCO, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Mitsubishi Electric, and Infineon [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in local production and demand for silicon wafers and SiC substrates in China, with local coverage expected to increase from 41% to 54% for 12-inch silicon wafers and from 80% to 87% for 6-inch SiC substrates by 2027E [1][6]. - Pricing trends indicate a decline in average selling prices (ASP) for 8-inch silicon wafers at a CAGR of -10% from 2024 to 2026E, while 12-inch wafers are expected to decline at -6% CAGR during the same period. SiC substrate ASP is projected to decrease from US$443 in 2024 to US$384 in 2026E [1][6]. - Capacity expansion is notable, with 12-inch silicon wafer capacity expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2027E, significantly outpacing the 3% CAGR for 8-inch silicon wafers. SiC substrate capacity is also set to expand at 26% and 96% CAGR for 6-inch and 8-inch substrates, respectively [1][6]. - The report anticipates a consolidation in the industry, with the top three Chinese silicon wafer suppliers projected to cover 36% of domestic demand by 2027E, up from 26% in 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections China TAM - The total addressable market (TAM) for silicon wafers in China is projected to grow from US$1.999 billion in 2021 to US$4.511 billion by 2030E, with a notable increase in shipments from 36,962k units in 2021 to 103,570k units by 2030E [37]. - The SiC substrate market is expected to grow from US$197 million in 2021 to US$2.770 billion by 2030E, driven by rising EV penetration and SiC adoption rates [39]. - The GaN devices market is projected to expand from US$66 million in 2021 to US$1.611 billion by 2030E, supported by applications in EVs, data centers, and consumer electronics [42]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Local suppliers' capacity expansion in silicon wafers is primarily driven by logic and memory clients, while SiC substrate capacity is expanding due to increased adoption in EVs and fast charging technologies [43]. - The report notes that local suppliers are expected to cover 75% of SiC substrate demand in China by 2025E, increasing to 84% by 2027E [6][39]. - The demand for SiC and GaN is anticipated to replace IGBT in high power and high frequency applications, with SiC penetration rates projected to reach 75% in EVs by 2030E [52]. Pricing Trends - The ASP for silicon wafers is expected to decline, with 8-inch wafers decreasing at a CAGR of -10% and 12-inch wafers at -6% from 2024 to 2026E [1][6]. - SiC substrate pricing is also expected to narrow, making SiC MOSFETs more competitive against silicon IGBTs [1]. Industry Consolidation - The report indicates a trend towards consolidation in the silicon wafer industry, with the top three suppliers expected to significantly increase their market share in China by 2027E [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Tesla Inc. with a 12-month price target of $285, indicating a potential downside of 18.3% from the current price of $348.68 [16][19]. Core Insights - The launch of Tesla's robotaxi operations is seen as a significant step towards addressing the autonomous vehicle (AV) rideshare market, with an estimated market size of approximately $7 billion in the U.S. by 2030 [13]. - Initial user feedback on the robotaxi rides has been largely positive, highlighting smooth driving experiences, although some navigation issues were reported [4][6]. - The comparison with Waymo indicates that Tesla's operational area and service hours are currently more limited, which may affect its competitive positioning in the AV market [7][10]. Summary by Sections Robotaxi Launch Performance - Initial rides have shown a good degree of drive smoothness, with users noting features like a customer support button and personalized preferences [4][6]. - A navigation error was reported where a vehicle incorrectly used a left turn lane, raising concerns about the technology's readiness [6][10]. Comparison with Waymo - Tesla's robotaxi operates in a smaller area and has limited hours (6 am to midnight) compared to Waymo's 24/7 service in a larger operational area [7][10]. - Pricing for Tesla's rides is set at a flat fee of $4.20, while Waymo's pricing varies like traditional Uber rides [7]. Scaling and Future Outlook - The presence of a Tesla employee in the vehicle and the reported navigation issues suggest that scaling will be slow in the near term [10]. - Regulatory developments will be crucial for the speed of scaling, with Texas recently signing a bill requiring permits for robotaxi operations [11]. - The report includes a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis for Tesla's robotaxi business, indicating a wide range of potential value per share depending on scaling and margin differentiation [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) decreased to +4.3% month-on-month annualized seasonally adjusted in May from +4.6% in April, indicating a slight slowdown in economic activity [7] - The weakening in CAI was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, suggesting challenges in this area [12] - The import-implied domestic demand proxy indicates largely stable growth in recent months, reflecting resilience in domestic consumption [9] - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased in May, mainly due to foreign exchange depreciation against a trade-weighted basket, which may impact liquidity conditions [27][24] - The report anticipates a faster pace of government bond issuance in the coming months, with an additional RMB1 trillion quota expected to be approved [36] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Indicators - The CAI fell to +4.3% in May, down from +4.6% in April, indicating a deceleration in economic momentum [7] - Manufacturing and construction growth proxies both declined in May, highlighting sector-specific weaknesses [13] Domestic Demand - The import-implied domestic demand proxy suggests stable growth, indicating that domestic consumption remains resilient despite external pressures [9] Financial Conditions - The FCI eased in May, primarily driven by FX depreciation, which may affect overall economic liquidity [27][24] - The growth impact of FCI impulse is expected to turn positive from Q2 onwards, suggesting potential recovery in economic activity [12] Government Policy - The report notes a slight tightening in the domestic macro policy proxy in May, driven by a narrower fiscal deficit, which may influence future economic stimulus measures [35] - An increase in government bond issuance is projected, with expectations of an additional RMB1 trillion quota to be approved [36]

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upgrade for truckers, suggesting a lessened probability of recession and a resilient consumer [12]. Core Insights - The inbound traffic from China to the US has shown slight sequential downticks of -7% for vessels and -4% for TEUs, indicating a potential moderation in the China surge [1][3]. - Year-over-year growth for laden vessels from China to the US accelerated to the high teens, despite the recent sequential decrease [3][19]. - The report outlines two potential scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge ahead of a 90-day tariff pause or a slowdown in activity/orders due to uncertainty [6][9]. - The report suggests that if the economy does not fall into recession and tariff issues stabilize, retailers may face inventory shortages leading to a surge in orders in the second half of 2025 [9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Trade Patterns - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that the data can be volatile but informative over a multi-week basis [4][5]. - The recent data indicates that traffic from China to the US is outpacing that of Asia, ex-China, with a +16% year-over-year increase for TEUs [3][25]. Freight Demand and Container Rates - Container rates have shown a sequential drop of -2%, potentially foreshadowing a demand drop post the initial surge from China [3]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles increased by +23% sequentially, reflecting the volatility of shipper decisions [37]. Economic Outlook and Inventory Trends - The report highlights that logistics managers' inventory levels are expanding upstream while compressing downstream, indicating a potential mismatch in supply and demand [68][73]. - The Logistics Managers Index shows higher inventory costs, reflecting increased storage costs as inventory builds before moving to consumers [74]. Port Activity and Shipping Volumes - Major ports in the US experienced a -10% year-over-year decline in volumes, with a significant drop of -22% sequentially from April to May [53][59]. - The report notes that the Big Three ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) are seeing a strong relationship between inbound volumes and TEU growth from Asia [58][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a market neutral carry strategy preference for Asia credit, indicating a stable outlook despite geopolitical tensions [6][10]. Core Insights - The China Property High Yield (HY) sector has shown a total return of 14.3% in 2025, reflecting a recovery from previous oversold conditions rather than fundamental improvements in the property market [10][11]. - Urban demand for new properties in China is projected to remain slightly below 5 million units per year, which is 75% lower than the peak of 20 million units in 2017 [5][10]. - The restructuring of China property developer debts is expected to be a gradual, multi-year process unless there is a significant policy shift [11][17]. Summary by Sections Asia Credit Overview - Asia credit spreads remained stable despite rising geopolitical tensions and oil price fluctuations, with a preference for maintaining carry strategies [6][10]. - The report highlights that Asia has consistently generated the best Sharpe ratios in Emerging Market Investment Grade (EM IG) credit, supported by strong technicals [4][7]. China Property Sector - Recent positive micro news includes Seazen Group's issuance of a USD 300 million bond and Moody's positive outlook revision for the company [10]. - The cleanup of debts in the China property sector is ongoing, with total debt outstanding for property developers stabilizing around RMB 19 trillion since 2021 [11][17]. - The report emphasizes a positive stance on China BBB and BB rated property companies, as policymakers aim to mitigate systemic tail risks [5][17]. Market Performance - The ICE-BAML Asia Dollar China Property HY index's performance indicates a rebound, but the report cautions that this is not indicative of a fundamental recovery in the physical property market [10][11]. - The report forecasts that primary market gross floor area (GFA) sold will decline by 8% in 2025 and 6% in 2026 before stabilizing [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on China's export resilience, highlighting strong growth in exports, particularly to emerging markets [2][3]. Core Insights - China's exports have demonstrated surprising strength, achieving double-digit growth since Q4 2023, driven by factors such as front-loading of export orders and trade re-routing [2][3][4]. - The report emphasizes the shift of China's export flows from developed markets to emerging markets, particularly ASEAN, which has become a key trading partner [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Export Growth Dynamics - Real exports from China have shown double-digit year-over-year growth since Q4 2023, with significant contributions from emerging markets [2][3]. - Front-loading of export orders has played a crucial role in maintaining high export levels, particularly in anticipation of US tariffs [5][6]. Trade Patterns and Destinations - Exports to ASEAN accounted for 16% of China's total exports in 2024, surpassing exports to the US, indicating a strategic shift in trade routes [2][3][4]. - The report notes that strong trade growth with major emerging economies has been a significant contributor to China's export strength over the past decade [2][3]. Sectoral Analysis - Exports of vehicles and electrical machinery to emerging markets have risen sharply, driven by supply chain diversification and increasing local demand for electric vehicles [2][3][4]. - The report highlights a transition in China's export product mix from traditional goods to new sectors such as electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells [26][35]. Impact of US Tariff Policies - US tariff policies have induced front-loading and trade re-routing, which have helped stabilize China's overall export growth despite a decline in US-bound exports [5][6][18]. - The report estimates that cumulative front-loading of US-bound exports during Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 was around 30% of trend-implied monthly export values [5][6]. ASEAN's Role in Trade - The ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement has significantly reduced tariffs, contributing to the rise in ASEAN-bound exports from China [37]. - Trade data discrepancies suggest potential transshipment of goods through ASEAN to avoid US tariffs, indicating a complex trade dynamic [39][41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The effective US tariff rate is projected to increase by approximately 14 percentage points by 2025, which is significantly higher than the 2 percentage point increase during the first Trump administration but lower than the previously assumed 20 percentage point increase [1] - The stabilization of the tariff outlook has contributed to easing financial conditions and a reduction in policy uncertainty, leading to a revised core PCE inflation forecast of 3.4% for December 2025 and an increase in the US growth forecast to 1.25% on a Q4/Q4 basis [1] - The probability of a US recession has been reduced to 30%, although geopolitical risks, particularly regarding potential military action against Iran, could influence this outlook [2][8] Economic Indicators - Real GDP is estimated to grow by 4.1% in Q2 2025 following a contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2025, although labor market indicators suggest a moderate deceleration with job growth slowing and an increase in jobless claims [5] - Core PCE inflation is expected to show modest growth of 0.18% in May, but concerns remain regarding tariff-driven price increases, with each 1 percentage point increase in tariffs estimated to add about 0.1% to core PCE [9] - Long-term inflation expectations appear to be anchored, which may limit second-round inflation effects from tariff increases [10] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to consider a single 25 basis point cut in December 2025, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026, although risks to this baseline are tilted to the downside due to potential labor market slowdowns [12] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to implement one more cut in September, with risks remaining to the downside due to ongoing economic slowdowns [18] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - The fiscal bill currently in Congress is expected to raise the deficit to unsustainable levels, projected at 6% of GDP overall and 3% excluding interest payments, which could impact foreign direct investment and equity portfolio inflows [16][17] Global Economic Context - The Chinese economy has shown resilience despite a 34.5% year-on-year decline in shipments to the US, with overall nominal export growth at 4.8% year-on-year in May [22] - The US dollar has weakened further, with predictions of significant depreciation against various currencies, driven by high valuations and challenges in attracting capital inflows [26][28]