Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the forecast for the next Fed rate cut to September from December, suggesting a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that disinflationary pressures are emerging, with expectations that tariffs will have only a one-time effect on price levels. The labor market remains healthy, but job finding has become more challenging [1]. - The report anticipates two additional 25 basis point cuts in interest rates later in the year, with a terminal rate forecast of 3-3.25% [1]. - The market is beginning to price in faster Fed easing, which could lead to a weaker Dollar and higher gold prices, benefiting equities depending on the growth backdrop [2]. Summary by Sections Earlier Fed Cuts - The forecast for the next Fed rate cut has been moved to September, with expectations of two more cuts in October and December [1]. - The terminal rate is now expected to be between 3-3.25%, down from a previous range of 3.5-3.75% [1]. US and UK Fiscal Policy - The report discusses the potential impact of the Trump Administration's fiscal policy, particularly the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which may enhance foreign investment appetite in the US [8]. - UK fiscal policy is also under scrutiny due to recent selloffs in Gilts, indicating a need for close monitoring [8]. Q2 Earnings Season - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is expected to show S&P 500 firms beating consensus estimates, with insights into how companies are adapting to higher tariffs [8]. - It is assumed that US consumers will absorb 70% of the direct costs of tariffs, but lower pass-through rates could pose risks to corporate margins [8]. Commodities Outlook - Oil markets are pricing a low probability of major supply disruptions, with expectations of falling oil prices due to strong supply growth [8]. - Conversely, gold prices are expected to rise due to increased central bank demand, and US copper prices may also see significant upside due to potential tariffs [8]. SLR Reform - The Fed's supplementary leverage ratio reform is anticipated to benefit banks by providing more flexibility for short-term secured financing and potentially increasing Treasury purchases during stress periods [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review is ongoing, with a revised "Statement of Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" expected to be released later this summer [2] - The last framework review in 2020 was influenced by low inflation and concerns about the zero lower bound (ZLB), leading to the adoption of "flexible average inflation targeting" (FAIT) [6][7] - Critics argue that the 2020 changes contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Fed officials have defended these strategies [8] - The FOMC is likely to revert to responding to "deviations" from maximum employment and return to flexible inflation targeting as its main strategy [10][12] - Proposed changes to communication practices include providing alternative economic scenarios and linking individual projections for the economy and interest rates [15][37] Summary by Sections Framework Review - The FOMC will announce changes to its communication practices in the fall, with adjustments likely to the consensus statement [5] - The review aims to address the effectiveness of the current framework in light of recent economic challenges [6] Key Changes from 2020 Review - The 2020 review emphasized responding to "shortfalls" from maximum employment and introduced FAIT, allowing inflation to overshoot 2% [7][8] - The FOMC is expected to reconsider the "shortfalls" language and may adopt a more robust approach to inflation targeting [10][12] Proposed Communication Innovations - Proposal 1: Publishing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and improve market understanding of the Fed's reaction function [16][17] - Proposal 2: Linking individual economic and interest rate projections to provide clearer insights into participants' reaction functions [37][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but indicates expectations for production increases and market stability, suggesting a cautious outlook on investment opportunities in the sector. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have remained stable as market attention shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where an increase in production is anticipated [1][2] - Global visible commercial stocks have increased by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the last three months, indicating a mixed supply-demand balance [3][5] - US crude production reached an all-time high in April but is expected to decline in the following months [5][34] - Gasoline and diesel margins have retreated from mid-June highs but remain elevated due to tight clean product stocks [4][59] Summary by Sections Production and Supply - OPEC+ is expected to announce a production increase of 411 kb/d, with the possibility of further increases after August due to non-OPEC supply growth [1][2] - US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands at 11.1 mb/d, slightly above previous expectations, while Canada liquids production has edged down to 5.7 mb/d [26][32] - OPEC8+ crude and condensate seaborne net exports have increased by 0.2 mb/d year-over-year [37] Demand - Global trackable oil demand nowcast is 0.1 mb/d above its year-ago level, with China oil demand at 16.9 mb/d, reflecting a slight increase [42][45] - OECD Europe oil demand nowcast stands at 13.3 mb/d, indicating a stable demand environment [48] Inventories - OECD commercial stocks nowcast has decreased by 7 mb to 2,755 mb, which is 91 mb below the year-ago level [18][22] - Global commercial stocks have increased by 17 mb, indicating a build-up in inventories [5][14] Prices and Margins - The gap between Brent 1M/36M timespread and its inventory-implied fair value has widened to 14 percentage points, indicating potential pricing pressure [51] - Refining margins in the US Gulf Coast remain supported due to the concentration of refining capacity in the region [4][59] Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could influence oil supply dynamics and market stability [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, Meituan, and PDD, while highlighting JD as a potential multiple repair/re-rating story [14][15][18]. Core Insights - The competition intensity among eCommerce players, particularly Alibaba, JD, and Meituan, in food delivery and instant shopping has escalated, with an estimated aggregate investment of Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) in the June quarter alone [9]. - The report estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb2.4 trillion for food delivery and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and user acquisitions [4][40]. - The ultimate goal for these companies is to become the "everyday app" for transactions, facilitating cross-selling across various goods and services [12][56]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The food delivery competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with Meituan achieving 90 million daily orders and Alibaba's Taobao Instant Commerce reaching 60 million peak daily orders [34]. - The report anticipates a re-acceleration of on-demand eCommerce penetration in China, projecting a TAM of Rmb1.5 trillion by 2030 [35][42]. Financial Projections - The report outlines three scenarios for food delivery and instant shopping, with a base case projecting a 5.5:3.5:1 market share between Meituan, Alibaba, and JD [10][27]. - Estimated losses for Alibaba and JD in food delivery are projected at Rmb-41 billion and Rmb-26 billion, respectively, over the next 12 months [9]. Company-Specific Insights - JD is expected to disproportionately benefit if it stabilizes its food delivery scale, while PDD is positioned to have a more resilient profit setup due to its lack of direct involvement in the food delivery competition [10][18]. - Meituan's strategic pivot towards centralized kitchens aims to enhance food safety and reduce delivery costs, which could improve long-term unit economics [11][54]. User Engagement and Traffic - The report notes a significant increase in daily active users (DAU) for both JD and Taobao, with a combined increase of 50 million DAU to approximately 410 million [12][56]. - The consolidation of offerings into a single app is seen as a strategy to monetize increased engagement from high-frequency food delivery [57].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for WuXi Biologics is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of HK$23.40, indicating a downside potential of 8.8% from the current price of HK$25.65 [9]. Core Insights - WuXi Biologics is on track to deliver FY25 revenue guidance, expecting a year-over-year growth of 12-15%, or 17-20% for continuing operations, driven by strong business development momentum and healthy new client orders [2][6]. - The company is experiencing robust demand from leading biotech and pharma clients in the US and Europe, with improving funding conditions for Chinese biotech, although budget increases for new projects may take time [2][6]. - WuXi Biologics is progressing well on global capacity expansion, with operations in Singapore expected to commence by year-end 2025, and ongoing optimization of non-core assets, including the divestment of its facility in Germany [2][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue Guidance and Demand - Management confirmed that the company is on track to meet its revenue guidance for FY25, supported by strong business development activities and a healthy order book [2][6]. - Demand is primarily driven by the US and European markets, with leading players actively advancing projects [6]. Capacity Expansion - The company is executing its capital expenditure plans effectively, with utilization rates improving across both domestic and international sites [7]. - The Singapore site is set to begin operations by the end of 2025, with a large drug product facility also under development to support future growth [7]. Client Demand and Milestones - There is robust demand for Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs), with a pipeline increase of 35.7% year-over-year, reaching 194 projects as of the end of 2024 [7]. - A milestone payment of US$65 million is expected to be booked in the first half of 2025, following a previous US$75 million recognized in the second half of 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including Asymchem, Weigao, AngelAlign, and Hygeia, while Tigermed is rated as "Neutral" [28]. Core Insights - The momentum in the CDMO sector continues into Q2 2025, with a focus on opportunities arising from China biotech licensing and GLP-1 developments, although revenue potential remains unclear due to technical complexities [2][10]. - The MedTech and Services sectors are experiencing a muted recovery, with ongoing policy headwinds affecting pricing and volumes, but some companies are showing resilience through new product launches and overseas expansion [3][14]. Summary by Sections CDMO/CRO - Q2 order momentum has sustained from Q1, with most companies reporting qualitative trends, while quantitative updates are expected in July/August [9]. - Top-tier CDMOs derive only 10-20% of their revenue from China, limiting the earnings impact from recent biotech licensing deals [2][9]. - Asymchem is favored for margin improvement in FY25, driven by emerging services, particularly in obesity-related modalities [2]. MedTech & Services - Recovery in device and service volumes remains subdued, with DRG/DIP reforms continuing to pressure pricing and volumes, though minimally invasive surgeries are less affected [3][14]. - Weigao is highlighted for its attractive valuation and new product contributions, while AngelAlign is on track for global expansion [3][14]. - Surgical volumes showed mild recovery in 1H25, with expectations for stronger growth in 2H due to easing policy headwinds [14][16]. Services - Ongoing reimbursement and regulatory pressures are challenges, but there are signs of improvement in reimbursement efficiency [17]. - Companies like Gushengtang are shifting towards self-pay services to align with rising demand from the "silver economy" [20]. - M&A sentiment is improving, with companies like Hygeia exploring partnerships for capacity expansion [20]. Guidance - WuXi Apptec expects FY25 revenue growth of 10-15%, while Asymchem anticipates double-digit growth alongside margin improvements [21]. - Weigao projects FY25 revenue growth of 10-15%, and Gushengtang aims for over 25% growth [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BioKangtai is Neutral with a 12-month price target of Rmb19, indicating an upside potential of 25.6% from the current price of Rmb15.13 [10][9]. Core Insights - BioKangtai's DTaP-Hib vaccine sales are expected to decline by approximately 80% in 2025, which will offset the revenue growth from newly launched products such as the varicella vaccine and human diploid cell rabies vaccine [2][8]. - The company anticipates some level of revenue growth in 2025 despite the decline in DTaP-Hib sales, supported by the strong performance of PCV13, which has a penetration rate nearing 30% [2][8]. - Significant increases in R&D expenses are expected due to pipeline expansion and clinical advancements, leading to profit targets remaining roughly flat compared to 2024 [2][8]. Business Performance Update - The ongoing anti-corruption campaign in the healthcare industry has led to a reduction in inventory levels within the CDC systems, negatively impacting shipment volumes and revenue in 2024 [2]. - The company has observed continued growth in actual sales of PCV13, with strong revenue growth in Q1 2025 supported by the ramp-up in sales of newly launched vaccines [2][8]. Overseas Business Progress and Outlook - BioKangtai's international expansion aims to increase capacity utilization with minimal additional costs, although overseas business is not expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth in the near term due to low vaccine prices in developing countries [3][6]. Pipeline Development Update - The company expects key pipeline projects, including the DTcP-IPV-Hib vaccine and PCV20, to be approved in 2027 and 2028, respectively [7]. - The approval and launch of the IPV vaccine is anticipated within the current year, followed by adsorbed tetanus and quadrivalent influenza vaccines in 2026 [7]. - There is a growing emphasis on adult vaccine development in response to declining birth rates, with potential expansion into other business areas such as antibody drug development [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for most industries, suggesting that many are not at the bottom of their cycles and face potential risks in the future [28][37]. Core Insights - The current state of excess capacity in the Chinese manufacturing sector remains largely unchanged, with five out of seven key industries still exhibiting overcapacity relative to global demand [17][19]. - A significant stimulus policy aimed at boosting domestic demand has temporarily alleviated some pressures, particularly in the tail end of the industry, but this is not indicative of a cyclical turning point [17][24]. - The "Three Principles" framework suggests that the bottoming out of cycles will be delayed, with negative cyclical risks anticipated in the near future [28][39]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on seven key industries contributing to 25% of China's GDP growth and 7% of exports, including air conditioners, solar modules, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, power semiconductors, steel, and construction machinery [3][16]. - The analysis shows that while there has been some improvement in capacity utilization rates, the overall competitive landscape remains challenging, with many companies still operating at negative or zero cash margins [36][37]. Capacity and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that the capacity utilization rates for the seven industries are projected to average around 63% in 2025, which is higher than the actual values for 2023-24 but still indicates potential for future declines [22][24]. - The stimulus measures have led to significant pre-purchase demand, particularly in the electric vehicle and air conditioning sectors, with estimates suggesting that these policies could drive demand significantly above baseline levels [24][26]. Industry-Specific Insights - The solar industry is noted to be closest to a turning point, while the electric vehicle sector is characterized by the weakest profitability and steepest cost curves, indicating a need for market consolidation [4][28]. - In contrast, leading manufacturers in the air conditioning, lithium battery, and construction machinery sectors maintain relative cost advantages, which may provide them with a more stable position in the market [4][19]. Future Outlook - The report concludes that while some industries may experience temporary relief from policy measures, the underlying structural issues and excess capacity will likely lead to continued challenges in achieving sustainable profitability [17][25]. - The anticipated demand recovery is seen as fragile, with potential risks associated with the tapering of stimulus measures in the coming years [28][39].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huadong Medicine Co. is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of Rmb41, indicating a potential upside of 1.5% from the current price of Rmb40.39 [7][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown slight growth in its business performance, particularly in innovative drugs and aesthetics, with expectations for improvement in H2 2025 driven by new product launches [2][6]. - Huadong Medicine anticipates additional revenue of Rmb1 billion from innovative drugs and new biosimilars in 2025, with hospital sales of ELAHERE and Arcalyst expected to start in Q3 2025 [6][7]. - The aesthetics segment is expected to launch new products such as MaiLi HA filler injection and V30 in H2 2025, aiming to support growth despite a weak consumption environment [6][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Business Performance - The company expects higher revenue growth from its manufacturing business and stable growth from aesthetics in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, with optimism for H2 due to new product launches [2][6]. Innovative Drugs - Huadong Medicine plans to initiate hospital sales of ELAHERE and Arcalyst in Q3 2025, projecting an additional Rmb1 billion in revenue from innovative drugs and new biosimilars in 2025 [6][7]. - The company is cautious about the development of its oral GLP-1 asset (HDM1002) due to concerns over liver toxicity, although no adverse events have been observed in over 800 enrolled patients [6]. Aesthetics - The company aims to launch several new aesthetic products in China in H2 2025, including MaiLi HA filler injection and Preime DermaFacial, to drive growth in a challenging consumption environment [6][7]. Industrial Microbiology - Huadong Medicine is developing APIs for pharmaceutical and biotech companies, expecting sales ramp-up following the launch of these assets [10]. Policy Impact - The company is actively engaging with national healthcare insurance to include its innovative drugs in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and anticipates limited impact from potential volume-based procurement (VBP) on certain products due to patent protections [10].

USA: Powell Reiterates Wait-and-See Approach to Policy, Does Not Comment on July Cut BOTTOM LINE: Chair Powell said the economy was "healthy overall" and that "as long as the US economy is in solid shape, we think the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more, and see what [the tariffs'] effects might be." When asked about whether it was too soon for the Fed to start cutting in July, Powell said he "wouldn't take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table." Powell said that the inflation ...