Investment Rating - The report indicates an increased geopolitical risk premium of $12 per barrel for Brent oil prices, reflecting a higher probability of supply disruptions due to escalating tensions in the Middle East [2][5][3]. Core Insights - The Brent oil price has risen to just under $80 per barrel, with expectations of potential price increases due to supply disruptions, particularly from Iran [3][2]. - The Polymarket prediction market shows a 52% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, up from just over 30% previously [3][2]. - Two main disruption scenarios are analyzed: a reduction in Iranian oil supply and broader regional disruptions affecting oil production and shipping [9][18]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Scenarios - If Iranian oil supply drops by 1.75 million barrels per day (mb/d), Brent prices could peak around $90 per barrel [10][12]. - A scenario where oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz drop by 50% for one month could see Brent prices reach approximately $110 per barrel [15][20]. - The report anticipates that European natural gas prices (TTF) may rise closer to 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu), reflecting a higher probability of significant supply disruptions [33][34]. Geopolitical Context - The report emphasizes the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil flows transit, and the potential impact of disruptions on global energy prices [30][19]. - A hypothetical large disruption could push oil prices above $110 per barrel, given a 20% disruption to global energy supplies [30][32]. Natural Gas Market Implications - The TTF price increase since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict suggests an 11% market-implied probability of a sizable LNG supply disruption [34][35]. - A sustained disruption in natural gas supply could lead to European prices exceeding 100 EUR/MWh [37]. US Natural Gas Market - The report notes that the impact of a global LNG supply disruption on US natural gas prices would be limited due to the US being a large net exporter of LNG [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment towards global equity and fixed income funds, with significant inflows observed in the latest reporting period [4][10]. Core Insights - Global fund flows into equity funds saw a substantial increase, with net inflows of $45 billion for the week ending June 18, compared to outflows of $10 billion in the previous week. This surge was primarily driven by strong demand from US investors for US equity funds [4][10]. - Fixed income funds also experienced increased inflows, totaling $19 billion, attributed to heightened demand for aggregate-type, mortgage-backed, and government bond funds. In contrast, money market fund assets declined by $12 billion [4][10]. - Emerging markets showed positive trends, particularly with mainland China funds turning positive and Brazil continuing to attract robust inflows. Sector-wise, technology funds recorded the strongest net inflows, while financials faced the largest outflows [4][10]. Summary by Category Equity Flows - Total equity inflows amounted to $31.3 billion over the four-week period, with a significant weekly inflow of $45.4 billion on June 18. Developed markets, particularly the US, saw notable inflows, while Japan experienced outflows [10][12]. - Technology sector funds led the inflows, while financials and healthcare sectors faced significant outflows [10][12]. Fixed Income Flows - Total fixed income inflows reached $70.8 billion, with a weekly inflow of $19.2 billion. Aggregate-type and mortgage-backed funds were particularly favored, while long-duration bond funds saw outflows [10][12]. - Emerging market local bond funds attracted strong inflows, indicating a positive sentiment towards these assets [10][12]. FX Flows - Cross-border FX flows totaled $58.2 billion, with G10 currencies showing strong demand, particularly for the Korean won, which saw the largest net inflows in z-score terms [12][13]. - The report highlights subdued inflows for the US dollar, contrasting with robust inflows for other currencies like the euro and British pound [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese automotive industry, particularly regarding the overcapacity situation and reliance on government stimulus measures [1][7]. Core Insights - The expansion of new energy vehicle (NEV) capacity in China is slowing, with an expected increase of 2.5 million units by 2025, representing a 13% year-on-year growth, down from 5.5 million in 2023 and 3.2 million in 2024 [1][3]. - The Chinese automotive market remains fragmented, with the top ten manufacturers holding less than 80% market share, indicating potential for consolidation and improved profitability [1][6]. - Government stimulus measures, particularly the doubling of trade-in subsidies in July 2024, have significantly boosted demand, with 6.1 million applications last year, highlighting a high dependency on these measures [1][5]. - The report suggests that the recent improvement in profitability for the top thirteen manufacturers may be temporary due to increased supply chain pricing pressures [1][6]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - NEV capacity is projected to grow by 2.5 million units by 2025, with a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [1][3]. - The market remains fragmented, with less than 80% market share held by the top ten manufacturers, compared to over 90% in mature markets like the US and Japan [1][6]. Government Stimulus Impact - Government trade-in subsidies have significantly influenced demand, with 28% of 2024 sales attributed to these measures, and 31% in the first five months of 2025 [1][8]. - The budget for trade-in subsidies is set to increase from 150 billion RMB in 2024 to 300 billion RMB in 2025, supporting an estimated 2.4 million units of stimulated demand [1][9]. Future Market Trends - Potential market demand is expected to grow in line with GDP, with NEV penetration stabilizing around 70% after 2025 [2][11]. - The report anticipates a gradual decline in sales growth rates post-2026, with a return to a 10% annual growth rate after 2030 [2][11]. Company Performance and Outlook - Companies like XPeng are expected to improve their performance through competitive new models and cost reduction strategies, with significant growth potential in their latest offerings [15][16]. - BYD aims to export 800,000 vehicles by 2025, with a strong performance in overseas markets, particularly in Western Europe [22][21]. Industry Consolidation and Challenges - The report predicts significant industry consolidation may occur around 2027 or 2028, driven by a lack of substantial growth potential [20]. - The increasing importance of export growth for manufacturers is highlighted, as domestic market growth slows and competition intensifies [19][21].

18 June 2025 | 12:37AM HKT Kingdee (0268.HK): AI agent 2.0 to empower financial/ travel/ HR/ knowledge AI; profitability improvement remains key focus; Buy We reiterate our Buy rating on Kingdee on release of Cosmic Agent 2.0 platform, which has features covering financial, travel, recruiting etc., which is empowered by multiple AI foundation models. We expect the company to continue expanding agents to AI sales, AI operations, AI decision-making etc., and enable AI agents to provide customized experiences ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on JD and Kuaishou, while also maintaining "Buy" on Meituan, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo, with a "Neutral" rating on VIPS [14]. Core Insights - The China eCommerce industry experienced approximately 10-11% gross GMV growth during the 2025 618 shopping festival, supported by a 15% year-over-year increase in parcel volume [1][2]. - The growth was driven by national subsidies on electronics and appliances, with competition normalizing across platforms [2]. - JD emerged as the fastest-growing shelf-based incumbent with an estimated GMV growth in the mid-teens percentage year-over-year, significantly increasing its transacting users by 100% [3][9]. - There is a notable shift towards on-demand eCommerce, with platforms like Meituan and JD focusing on instant retail rather than live-streaming eCommerce [10]. - Generative AI tools have proliferated, enhancing merchant efficiency and conversion rates during the festival [13]. Summary by Sections Broader Picture of the Festival - The overall GMV growth for the industry was estimated at 10-11%, with parcel volume growth at 15% year-over-year during the festival period [1][2]. - The narrowing gap between GMV and parcel volume growth indicates a lower return rate and fewer refunds without return orders [2]. eCommerce Platform Strategy During 618 Shopping Festival - Platforms focused on simplifying promotional activities and supporting merchants to lower operational costs [11][47]. - JD's innovative food delivery model and Meituan's significant order volume growth highlight the competitive landscape shift [10][11]. Engagement Data - The average daily active users (DAU) among top eCommerce platforms increased, with JD experiencing a historical high in DAU during the festival [50][53]. - Time spent on eCommerce apps increased by 10% year-over-year in May 2025, with JD and Pinduoduo showing significant growth [51]. Key Strategies and Merchant Support Measures - Various platforms implemented measures to support merchants, including commission rebates and reduced operational costs [11][47]. - Douyin introduced multiple merchant support policies, saving merchants a total of Rmb11 billion from January to May [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a generally positive outlook for the global transport markets, particularly in ocean freight, while air freight shows signs of weakness [1][2]. Core Insights - Global ocean volumes in Q2 are up 6% year-over-year (yoy) in China, with Asia-Europe trade also experiencing mid-single-digit growth, despite some declines in Pacific volumes [1][2]. - Air freight has weakened recently, with initial growth in April fading due to regulatory changes and underperformance in North America [1][3]. - The China-US cargo rush is slowing, with forecasts indicating significant declines in US imports and weaker export orders from China [2][4]. Summary by Sections Freight: Ocean Resilient, Air Softer - Ocean freight volumes are showing resilience with a 6% increase in China port throughput yoy, while air freight has softened following regulatory changes [1][2]. Air Freight: Softer Following De Minimis Changes - Air freight growth was initially positive in April but has since declined, particularly in North America, with ISM new orders in contraction for four consecutive months [1][2][3]. Sea: Positive Global Volume Growth in Q2 - Global container volumes increased by 6% in April, indicating a positive trend in seaborne trade despite some regional variations [1][2][35]. Shipping: Rates Up from April Lows, but Starting to Fade on the Pacific - Shipping rates have recovered from April lows but are beginning to show signs of fading momentum, particularly in the Pacific region [1][2][95]. Airlines: Weaker Unit Revenue Trends into Summer - Airline fare data has weakened, particularly in Europe and the US, with expectations of slowing passenger growth across major hubs [3][4]. Airports: Generally Slowing Traffic Growth - Airport traffic growth is generally slowing, reflecting broader trends in air travel demand [3][4]. Commodities Shipping - Crude tanker rates have increased due to geopolitical tensions, while demand for shipments remains high [9]. Asia-Europe Trade - There is robust growth in Asia-Europe container trade, supported by favorable exchange rates for imports from China [9][67][69].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group with a 12-month price target of HK$90, indicating an upside potential of 30.5% from the current price of HK$68.95 [11][12]. Core Insights - AIA Group is focused on share buybacks, with a decision to shorten the buyback period to three months to capitalize on low share prices. The next buyback decision is expected to align with FY25 results [5]. - The company anticipates limited impact from interest rate changes, with a positive translation effect from the weakness of the USD. The business in mainland China and Thailand is negatively affected by lower rates, while operations in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia benefit from them [5][10]. - AIA is actively expanding its footprint in mainland China, aiming to grow agent numbers in new branches and maintain a similar product mix to established operations. The company expects to receive approvals for 1-2 new provinces each year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Share Buybacks - AIA Group has decided to shorten the buyback period to three months to take advantage of low share prices, with the next review of capital position and free surplus generation expected at FY25 results [5]. Market Movements - The report discusses the impact of foreign exchange, interest rates, and equity market movements, noting that the USD weakness primarily affects translation metrics rather than direct business impact. The company has seen a year-to-date decline in bond yields in China and the US, while rates in Thailand have decreased, potentially leading to negative impacts if current levels persist [5][6]. Sales and Growth in Mainland China - AIA reported a -7% year-over-year decline in Value of New Business (VONB) in mainland China, attributed partly to a strong base effect from 1H24. The company expects easier comparisons in 2H25. The sales mix has shifted towards participating products, which have lower margins compared to non-participating products, but traditional products remain unaffected [10][11]. Footprint Expansion - AIA aims to grow agent numbers in new branches to over 1,000 within the first 1.5-2 years and plans to expand to other cities in the provinces of the new branches. The product mix in new branches is similar to established operations, although average ticket sizes are smaller due to lower income levels in these areas [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) [1]. Core Insights - Revenue and profit growth are expected to accelerate in the remaining quarters of 2025, with ambitious targets set for full-year growth [3]. - The net interest margin (NIM) change in 2025 is anticipated to outperform peers [3]. - Loan growth in 2025 is projected to exceed Rmb 370 billion recorded in 2024 [3]. - Positive growth in mortgage loans is expected for the full year, despite a slower pace compared to previous quarters [3]. - Non-interest income is targeted to achieve positive growth in 2025 [3]. - The company aims to control credit costs while maintaining a stable or higher non-performing loan (NPL) coverage ratio with a decline in the NPL ratio [3]. - A 30% dividend payout ratio is expected to be maintained [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The company achieved 1%+ revenue and profit growth in 1Q25 and is confident in accelerating growth for the remaining quarters of 2025 [11]. - The ambitious targets for revenue and profit growth in 2025 are set despite a high base and weak bond market performance [11]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) - NIM saw marginal improvement in 1Q25, with a limited year-over-year decline, outperforming peers [7]. - The NIM is expected to remain stable in 2Q25 and outperform peers throughout 2025 [7]. - Factors contributing to NIM improvement include accelerated loan growth and optimized liability structure [7]. Loans - Loan growth in 2025 is expected to exceed Rmb 370 billion, with a balanced growth pace throughout the year [7]. - New loan growth in 1Q25 was Rmb 250 billion, significantly faster than peers [7]. - The focus will be on five key areas: technology finance, supply chain finance, inclusive finance, cross-border finance, and wealth management [7]. Mortgages - Mortgage loans are expected to achieve positive growth in 2025, particularly in tier 1 and 2 cities [7]. - Both 1Q25 and 2Q25 saw positive mortgage growth, although less significant than in 4Q24 [7]. - The mortgage NPL ratio increased slightly in 1Q25 but remains under control [7]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is targeted for positive growth in 2025, with future growth drivers identified [11]. - Fee income growth was negative in 1Q25 due to a decline in corporate underwriting income, while agency sales and custody income grew [11]. - Positive investment income growth in 1Q25 was attributed to opportunistic bond investment gains and growth in precious metals and FX derivatives trading income [11]. Asset Quality - The company aims to achieve a decline in the NPL ratio while maintaining a stable or higher NPL coverage ratio [11]. - The main asset quality risk lies in retail, with the NPL ratio for developer loans decreasing quarter-over-quarter in 1Q25 [11].

Investment Ratings - CICC-H: Buy [1] - FUTU: Neutral [1] - Hundsun: Buy [1] - East Money: Sell [2] Core Insights - Broker and fintech stocks have shown strong performance since May, with average returns of +27% for brokers and +9% for fintech, compared to +8% and +3% for the H/A share index [1] - Positive changes in Average Daily Trading Volume (ADTV) and turnover rates, along with growth in the Hong Kong market, are expected to drive earnings improvement [1][4] - Earnings forecasts for CICC, Hundsun, FUTU, GFS, and CITICS have been revised upwards by an average of 7% for 2025 [1][31] Summary by Sections Stock Selection Preferences - Preference for brokers with greater exposure to the Hong Kong market, such as CICC-H, while maintaining a Neutral rating on FUTU due to limited excess earnings growth [2] - For fintech, Hundsun is preferred over East Money due to fundamental factors, including recovery in non-core revenue supported by investments [2][26] Market Trends and Revisions - ADTV and turnover rates have recovered since June, primarily due to the easing of tariff shocks [4][12] - Continued increase in ETF market share is expected to impact East Money's profitability negatively [26] Earnings Forecasts - CICC's net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 13%, reflecting anticipated growth in Hong Kong investment banking revenue [17][22] - FUTU's earnings forecast has been slightly raised by 1% for 2025, driven by reduced customer acquisition costs [21][22] - Hundsun's net profit forecast for 2025 has been increased by 13% due to higher investment income [31] Valuation and Price Targets - CICC-H has a target price of HK$ 17.58 based on a 10x 2026E P/E [36] - FUTU's target price is set at US$ 111.79 based on an 18x 2026E P/E [36] - Hundsun's target price is Rmb 32.04, reflecting its market presence and sustainable customer relationships [46]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) with a 12-month price target of HK$23.50 for H-shares and Rmb26.50 for A-shares, indicating a downside of 6.0% and 24.0% respectively [9][13]. Core Insights - Strong sales momentum has been observed in the first quarter of FY25, continuing into the second quarter, with the mix of participating product sales increasing to over 30% by the end of May, compared to approximately 20% in 1Q25 [5]. - CPIC's agency headcount has stabilized year-to-date, with plans to increase recruitment starting in the second half of FY24, focusing on improving agent productivity [5]. - The bancassurance channel has shown strong growth in value of new business (VONB) for FY24, with expectations of similar momentum in FY25, particularly in tier 1-2 cities [5]. - Investment in equity and funds remains stable at around 12% of total investment assets, with a new money yield of approximately 2.5% [12]. Sales Momentum - The sales momentum in 1Q25 has continued into 2Q25, with a notable increase in the sales mix of participating products [5]. - The agency channel aims to promote health and protection products to improve margins and diversify the product mix [5]. - The bancassurance channel strategy focuses on tier 1-2 cities to access mid-to-high-end customers, maintaining key partnerships with banks [5]. Asset and Liability Management - CPIC's current effective duration gap is 3-4 years, with an asset duration of 11.6 years [12]. - The blended guaranteed cost of liability is around 2.8%, expected to be lower than 2.5% when including positive expense and risk margins [12]. Shareholders' Return - CPIC will maintain its annual payout policy and has not proposed a detailed plan for share buybacks, despite receiving authorization from the AGM [12]. - The company emphasizes total payout ratio over more frequent dividend payments, indicating a focus on long-term shareholder returns [12].