Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's activity data weakened sequentially in April, reflecting the negative impact of increased US tariffs and soft domestic demand, with a Q2 real GDP growth forecast of 5.0% year-on-year appearing on track despite mixed activity data [1][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth declined to 6.1% year-on-year in April from 7.7% in March, slightly above market consensus of 5.7% due to trade re-routing [2][10] - Sequentially, IP contracted by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [10] - Output growth in computer-related industries slowed significantly, with smartphone and computer output growth dropping to -6.4% and -2.2% year-on-year, respectively [10] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 4.3% in March, primarily due to slower infrastructure and property investment growth [11] - Infrastructure investment growth declined to 7.1% year-on-year, while property investment saw a drop of 11.3% year-on-year in April [11] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year-on-year in April from 5.9% in March, below market consensus of 5.9% [4][12] - Online goods sales, offline goods sales, and restaurant sales revenue growth moderated to 6.1%, 4.7%, and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively [13] Services Industry - The Services Industry Output Index growth remained stable at 6.0% year-on-year in April, down from 6.3% in March [14] - Sequentially, the index fell by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [14] Property-Related Activity - Property sales growth slowed to -2.1% year-on-year in April from -1.0% in March, with significant declines in new home starts and completions [15] - Real estate investment dropped by 11.3% year-on-year in April [12][15] Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in April from 5.2% in March, with the unemployment rate for migrant workers also decreasing to 4.8% [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment rating for the oil industry, with Brent/WTI oil price forecasts set at $60/$56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, which are below the forwards by $4 and $8 respectively [4][8][32]. Core Insights - The price drag from higher Iran supply assumptions and slightly higher than expected OECD commercial stocks offsets the price boost from higher GDP forecasts [3][4]. - Global oil demand growth forecasts for Q4-Q4 have been raised by 0.3mb/d and 0.1mb/d for 2025 and 2026, now projected at 0.6mb/d and 0.4mb/d respectively [5][6]. - The report nudges up Iran's crude supply expectations for 2025H2-2026 to 3.6mb/d, reflecting potential progress on a US-Iran nuclear deal, although the outlook remains uncertain [12][13]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecasts - The report maintains Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/$56 for 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, indicating a cautious outlook due to supply factors [4][8][32]. - The price forecasts have been adjusted slightly upward for May, June, and July 2025 due to a faster-than-expected recovery in risk premiums following the US-China trade deal [6]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global oil demand growth is expected to be sluggish, with a forecast of 0.6mb/d in 2025 and 0.4mb/d in 2026, driven by lower tariffs and higher GDP [5][10]. - The report anticipates surpluses of 1.0mb/d and 1.5mb/d in 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a potential imbalance in the oil market [30]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran relations and the potential impact on Iran's crude supply, which could increase if a nuclear deal is reached [12][13]. - Venezuela's supply forecast has also been nudged up based on higher-than-expected realized production [16]. Economic Scenarios - The report outlines various scenarios for oil prices, indicating that downside risks remain significant due to high spare capacity and potential global economic slowdowns [19][20]. - In a scenario of a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC cuts, Brent prices could fall to $40 by late 2026 [23][21].

Investment Rating - The report raises the end-2025 US 10-year yield forecast to 4.5% from 4.0% previously, indicating a bullish outlook on US yields [1][6]. Core Views - The larger and faster de-escalation in US-China tariffs has reduced the downside risks for US growth, prompting a reassessment of yield forecasts [1][6]. - The report suggests that the combination of a smaller mechanical tariff headwind and a reversal in financial conditions supports higher long-term yields [6][31]. - The report maintains a bullish stance on Gilts, expecting a substantial rally at the 10-year point, with long-end risk premiums compressing compared to the US [1][6]. Summary by Sections United States and Canada - The US 10-year yield forecast has been revised up to 4.5% for year-end 2025, reflecting a reassessment of the US outlook due to tariff reductions [6][31]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a quarterly cadence of cuts starting in December, reaching a terminal rate of 3.50-3.75% by June 2026 [6][31]. - The report anticipates a steeper CAD curve due to a more supportive domestic fiscal backdrop and a revised 10-year yield forecast of 3.50% for Canada by year-end 2025 [13]. Europe - The report indicates that the risks around the European front-end have shifted, with expectations of two more ECB cuts, but a less accommodative path beyond that [14][20]. - The Bund yield forecast remains unchanged at 2.80% for end-2025 and 3.25% for end-2026, reflecting fiscal expectations [14][20]. - The report highlights that the German curve is influenced by risk sentiment and fiscal expectations, with a potential for fiscal expansion to support growth [14][20]. United Kingdom - The UK is showing progress in moving out of the "low-growth, high-inflation" quadrant, with improved fiscal credibility suggesting a better outlook for Gilt risk premia [20][31]. - The report recommends long 10-year Gilts versus USTs, with an entry point of 51 basis points and a target of 10 basis points [20][31]. Japan - The report revises the forecasts for 5-year and 10-year JGB yields up by 20 and 30 basis points, respectively, to 1.3% and 1.8% by end-2025, due to diminished recession risks [25][27]. - The BOJ's normalization cycle is expected to be prolonged, with a medium-term neutral rate of 1.25-1.5% [31]. Global Outlook - The report emphasizes that global growth concerns will cap Gilt yields in the near term, but ongoing worries about supply and risk premiums remain hurdles [31]. - The report suggests that the macro backdrop of moderate growth and easing policy presents a favorable environment for harvesting vol carry in rates [10][31].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various themes and trends impacting covered companies [2]. Core Insights - The report identifies ten key themes shaping the industry landscape through 2025, focusing on the evolution of consumer AI, implications for cloud computing, the blurring lines between advertising and eCommerce, and the impact of digital advertising automation [5][7][39][43]. Summary by Themes Theme 1: The Evolution of the Consumer AI Landscape - The consumer AI landscape is evolving, with major companies like GOOGL and META positioned to capitalize on changing consumer behaviors through innovative AI applications [20][21]. Theme 2: The Implications of AI for Cloud Computing & CapEx - AI is expected to drive significant growth in cloud computing, with companies like AMZN and GOOGL focusing on stable revenue trends and capital investments to support AI workloads [29][30]. Theme 3: The Lines Between Advertising and eCommerce Models Continue to Blur - Companies are increasingly adopting partnership models rather than competing directly, with GOOGL, META, and AMZN well-positioned to benefit from social commerce trends [39][40]. Theme 4: Digital Advertising Shifts to AI Automation & Direct Response - The digital advertising sector is shifting towards AI-driven automation, with platforms focusing on direct-response advertising to enhance revenue growth amid macroeconomic uncertainties [47][48]. Theme 5: A Future of AVs & the Pathway for Mobility Networks - The rise of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is expected to reshape mobility networks, with companies like UBER and LYFT exploring partnerships to adapt to this evolving landscape [55][56]. Theme 6: The Battle for Same/Next Day Local eCommerce - Local eCommerce is experiencing growth driven by faster delivery speeds, with AMZN and UBER competing aggressively in this space [61][62]. Theme 7: The Normalization of Online Travel Demand (& Evolution of the Marketing Funnel) - The online travel sector is stabilizing post-pandemic, with growth expected to normalize, focusing on brand loyalty and optimizing marketing spend [68][72]. Theme 8: The Evolution of Interactive Entertainment Platforms - Interactive entertainment companies are diversifying their offerings, expanding into new verticals and enhancing user engagement through innovative content strategies [80][81]. Theme 9: The Transition from Mobile Computing to Spatial Computing (Over the Long-Term) - The industry is transitioning towards spatial computing, with companies investing in hardware and software developments to drive consumer adoption of AR/VR technologies [93][94]. Theme 10: Regulatory Matters & Changed Ecosystem Defaults Remains the Dominant Risk Factor to Industry - Regulatory scrutiny, particularly around antitrust issues, poses significant risks to major players like AMZN, GOOGL, and META, impacting their operational strategies [95][96].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a moderate uplift to annual investment of $30-135 billion, or 0.1%-0.4% of US GDP, over the next few years based on recent investment announcements [31][30][29]. Core Insights - Companies have announced plans to invest over $2 trillion in the US, with foreign governments pledging an additional $4.2 trillion, indicating a potential surge in US investment [3][5]. - However, the actual impact on US investment is expected to be smaller than the announced figures due to several factors, including the likelihood of some investments not materializing and the overlap with previously planned investments [3][8][30]. - A retrospective examination of similar promises during President Trump's first term indicates that approximately 80% of announced investments were realized [9][30]. - The report estimates that focusing only on specific GDP-relevant projects could yield an uplift to annual investment of $30-135 billion, with additional foreign purchases potentially adding another $50 billion to annual US GDP if they materialize [31][30]. Summary by Sections Investment Announcements - Companies have announced over $2 trillion in investments, implying a $500 billion uplift to annual investment, while foreign governments have pledged an additional $4.2 trillion [3][5]. - The report highlights that many of these announcements may not correspond to actual investment as measured in national accounts, with some companies including spending not relevant for GDP [13][14]. Realization of Announcements - Historical data from the first Trump administration shows that most announced projects were completed, although some high-profile projects fell short of their goals [9][12]. - The report notes that 69% of GS equity analysts view the recent announcements as mostly overlapping with prior plans, indicating limited incremental investment [21][24]. Economic Impact - The report concludes that while the announced investments are significant, the actual economic impact is likely to fall short of the headlines, with a more realistic estimate of $30 billion annually after accounting for overlaps and potential non-realization [30][31].

16 May 2025 | 4:25PM EDT +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jayachandran@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC US Weekly Kickstart Large-cap outperformance s ...

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 17 May 2025 | 10:29PM EDT US Daily: Tracking Trade with High-Frequency Data (Peng) Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.c ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for equities, suggesting a potential for continued market upside due to light investor positioning and macroeconomic factors [30][32][46]. Core Insights - The macro team has upgraded growth forecasts, delayed rate cuts, raised global index targets, and reduced recession risk from 45% to 35% [1]. - The geopolitical landscape appears relatively stable, and resilient hard data combined with the potential recovery in soft data may support risk appetite in the near term [1][2]. - The report highlights the significant deflationary impact of generative AI, which is expected to outweigh inflationary pressures from tariffs [3]. - The S&P 500 index may witness one of the fastest recoveries from a 20% drawdown to new all-time highs [4]. - The VIX and MOVE indices have experienced one of the sharpest resets since 1990, indicating a decline in market volatility [6]. - Cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks by 18% since April 4, reflecting an optimistic economic growth outlook [8]. - Despite resilient hard data, soft data has deteriorated year-to-date, marking one of the largest gaps since the 1970s [10]. - Financial conditions have not tightened significantly despite tariffs being eight times larger than in the previous trade war [12]. - US equity valuations are near historical highs, and global equity markets are not inexpensive relative to history [13]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the need for prudence and selectivity in adding risk, focusing on market dislocations and fundamentals [2]. - The performance of the Magnificent 7 has been notable, with a rally of 28% from its April low, although it remains down 5% year-to-date [49][50]. Economic Indicators - The report notes that the US equity sentiment indicator registered -1 standard deviations, typically indicating above-average returns for the S&P 500 in the following weeks [30]. - Hedge fund net leverage is at a particularly low level, suggesting potential for increased market activity [32]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the current environment may favor strong pricing power, robust balance sheets, and sectors with secular growth [46]. - The anticipated earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 may exceed consensus estimates, indicating potential upside [53].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for China's trade flows, particularly in exports, driven by significant tariff reductions and recovering import growth [2][32]. Core Insights - Export-led growth has been a crucial driver of China's economy, contributing to over half of the 5% real GDP growth in 2024 [3][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of timely monitoring of trade flows using shipping data due to high uncertainty surrounding China's trade dynamics [4][32]. - Vessel traffic data is highlighted as an effective tool for tracking trade flows, with seaborne trade accounting for 67% of US imports from China [9][10]. Summary by Sections Seaborne Trade's Significance for China - Seaborne imports from China represent 67% of US imports and 60% of EU imports, indicating a strong reliance on maritime transport for trade [11][10]. - The share of seaborne exports to the US has increased from 62% in 2017 to 69% in Q1 2025, with higher-value goods often transported by air [10][11]. High-Frequency Shipping Data - The report discusses the development of high-frequency shipping data, which allows for daily and weekly tracking of trade flows, contrasting with the monthly release of official trade statistics [15][20]. - Elane's data is noted for its accuracy in tracking year-over-year growth for both exports and imports, outperforming other datasets [27][31]. Month-to-Date Tracking - As of mid-May, the month-to-date tracking indicates resilient export growth and recovering import growth, with expectations of further upside due to US-China trade talks [32][34]. - The report suggests that the significant tariff reductions and the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs could enhance China's export performance in the coming months [32][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].