Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for SANY Heavy Industry, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [3][5][13]. Core Insights - SANY Heavy Industry reported a strong fiscal year 2024, with a 32% year-over-year increase in net profit, reaching Rmb6 billion, and a significant surge in free cash flow (FCF) [2][5]. - The company's overseas revenue constituted 64% of total sales, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 30%, significantly higher than the domestic GPM [3][6][12]. - SANY's strategic focus includes overseas expansion, electrification, and enhancing product intelligence, while addressing challenges such as tariff disruptions and domestic market changes [3][7][13]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, SANY's total revenue reached Rmb78.383 billion, a 5.9% increase from FY23, with a gross profit margin improvement to 26.7% [9][12]. - Operating cash flow hit an all-time high of Rmb15 billion, attributed to high-quality sales and favorable payment conditions, while capital expenditures were reduced by 36% year-over-year to Rmb3 billion [5][9]. - The net margin improved to 7.6%, up from 6.1% in FY23, driven by effective cost management and a positive product mix [2][5][9]. Strategic Initiatives - SANY is actively pursuing growth opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, Asia Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East, with expectations for revenue growth exceeding 20% year-over-year in 2025 [6][7]. - The company launched over 40 electric products in 2024, generating Rmb4 billion in revenue from new energy products, which accounted for 5% of total revenue [7][12]. - SANY plans to enhance its product intelligence through increased R&D investment, focusing on integrating advanced technologies and leveraging AI for improved service offerings [7][12].

22 April 2025 | 12:06AM HKT Private Tech Tour 2025 review: Top 10 takeaways across advanced, new technology/ applications, and market demand check We hosted our China Private Technology Tour 2025 in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong during April 14-17 with Founders and C-suite level speakers along with factory visits across 19 private companies in 8 segments: Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs ...

Larger Cap Refiners: What Are We Focused On Into EPS Results? In this note we update estimates for the US Larger Cap Refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX, DINO) ahead of 1Q25 earnings. Heading into the quarter, we are mindful of the tougher near-term setup where we note (a) softer global oil demand expectations, (b) tighter crude differentials with Brent-WTI tightening to $3/bbl (vs $5/bbl historical average) and WTI-WCS tightening to $9/bbl (vs $15/bbl historical average), and (c) depressed Renewable Diesel earnings. T ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Cambricon to a Buy rating with a target price of Rmb1,223, indicating a potential upside of 76% from the current price of Rmb695 [1][2]. Core Insights - Cambricon is experiencing a recovery in revenue growth, driven by a shift from intelligent computing cluster systems to cloud chips, which are expected to dominate its revenue stream. The company anticipates a revenue growth of 111% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, primarily due to the rising demand for cloud chips in the generative AI sector in China [1][2]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2025, with an EBIT margin expected to improve to 26% by 2030 [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - In 1Q25, Cambricon's revenues increased by 12% QoQ, marking a significant recovery from a -90% QoQ decline in the same quarter over the past five years. Cloud chips contributed 99% of 2024 revenues, a substantial increase from 13% in 2023 [1][2]. - The forecast for total revenue is Rmb1,174.5 million in 2024, Rmb5,531.1 million in 2025, Rmb12,047.9 million in 2026, and Rmb24,703.5 million in 2027 [4][13]. Inventory and Demand - Inventory levels rose to Rmb2.8 billion in 1Q25, up from Rmb99 million in 2023, indicating strong demand for cloud chips. Raw material costs surged by 1,400% YoY in 2024, while finished goods inventory declined by 23% YoY [1][2][27]. - Contract liabilities, reflecting pre-orders, increased to Rmb1.4 million in 1Q25, up from Rmb0.3 million in 2023, signaling positive future growth prospects [1][2]. Research and Development - The number of R&D engineers increased from 727 in 1H24 to 741 in 2024, with revenue per R&D engineer rising to Rmb619, compared to Rmb381k in 2022 [1][2][17]. Financial Projections - The report anticipates a significant increase in net income, with projections of Rmb946.8 million in 2025, Rmb2,369 million in 2026, and Rmb5,014 million in 2027, reflecting a growth of 546% from previous estimates [30]. - EBITDA is expected to grow at an 80% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with margins improving to 26% by 2030 [34]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb1,223 is based on a revised EV/EBITDA multiple of 49x for 2030E, reflecting a more conservative approach compared to previous estimates [35][37].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Household disposable income grew by 5.5% year-over-year in Q1 2025, slightly down from 5.6% in Q4 2024, while nominal consumption growth increased to 5.2% year-over-year from 4.5% in the previous quarter [3][4] - The labor market remained stable in Q1 2025, with urban unemployment rates increasing slightly, particularly in large cities [18][20] - The household savings rate decreased in Q1 2025, falling below pre-Covid trend levels, with estimated cumulative excess savings at RMB 3.0 trillion [32][39] - Consumer confidence showed a slight uptick but remained muted, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties [46][48] Summary by Sections Income and Spending - Household disposable income growth decelerated to 5.5% year-over-year in Q1 2025, while nominal consumption growth accelerated to 5.2% [3][4] - Per capita household consumption growth accelerated to +9.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized in Q1, driven by increased spending on food, clothing, education, culture, and entertainment [3][11] Employment - The labor market was stable, with urban unemployment rates slightly increasing after seasonal adjustments [18][20] - The migrant worker population grew marginally in Q1 2025, and several provinces increased minimum monthly wages, providing a boost to household disposable income [24][28] Household Savings - The household savings rate fell below pre-Covid trend levels, with excess savings estimated at RMB 3.0 trillion [32][39] - There are RMB 52 trillion in excess deposits in household bank deposits, with growth remaining stable [35][41] Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index increased slightly in early 2025, supported by consumption-boosting measures and improved property sales in top-tier cities [3][46] - Significant divergence in residential population changes was noted across provinces, with Guangdong seeing the most growth and Shandong the largest decline [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the negative impact of US tariffs on emerging market (EM) economies, particularly in Asia, leading to downgraded growth forecasts across various EMs [3][44] - It identifies China, Malaysia, Mexico, Hungary, and Vietnam as the most exposed to tariff turmoil, while Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Argentina, and Poland are likely to be less affected [6][36] - The report anticipates more monetary easing across EMs due to declining inflation and weak growth, with central banks expected to implement front-loaded easing policies [6][47] Summary by Sections EM Macro Navigator Overview - The publication provides an overview of themes, market trends, and events relevant to EM investors, assessing the impact of US tariffs on EM economies [3][9] - It includes country-by-country forecasts, with significant downgrades noted for smaller export-oriented economies in Asia [3][44] Impact of US Tariffs - The US announced significant tariff increases, including a 10% baseline increase and a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, leading to a 15 percentage point increase in the effective US tariff rate [8][9] - The report explores five channels through which tariffs affect EM economies: direct trade effects, trade diversion effects, uncertainty effects, financial conditions/liquidity, and commodity prices [10][22] Country-Specific Forecasts - In China, growth forecasts have been lowered to 4.0% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, with expectations of policy easing mitigating some impacts [6][46] - Mexico's growth forecast has been revised down from 0.0% to -0.5% in 2025, while significant cuts are noted for Czechia and Hungary due to their reliance on auto production [6][46] Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy - The report indicates a tightening of financial conditions in developed markets, while some EMs have experienced easing due to exchange rate depreciation [25][28] - EM central banks are expected to implement more aggressive rate cuts, with specific forecasts for countries like India, Mexico, and Chile [51][62] Commodity Price Effects - Oil prices have decreased by 15% to $64 per barrel since the tariff announcement, with further declines expected, impacting both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries differently [31][34] - The report highlights that lower commodity prices will have significant negative consequences for oil-exporting countries while benefiting oil-importers [31][34]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades L&T to Neutral from Buy due to expected capex deferral and maintains a Sell rating on Cummins and Thermax [2][47] - KEI is upgraded to Buy from Neutral as the risk-reward profile appears attractive [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a slowing growth environment for Indian Industrials amid tariff uncertainty, leading to deferrals in new factory capex and lower order inflows [1][7] - Revenue impacts of approximately 4-5% are anticipated for ports and logistics in FY26/27E, with a general expectation of lower earnings across the coverage [1][30] - The report revises earnings estimates downwards by an average of -1%/-4%/-6% for FY25E-FY27E [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Capital Expenditure and Growth - Capital expenditure in the private sector is expected to slow down due to tariff negotiations, leading to deferred projects and reduced order inflow for companies [7][30] - The report notes that while India’s GDP growth has historically been resilient to external shocks, the current tariff uncertainty may still impact container and port volumes [8][10] Sector-Specific Ratings - For ports and logistics, Adani Port is rated Buy, while Container Corp of India is rated Sell due to anticipated declines in container volumes [3][31] - In the cement sector, Ultratech is the only Buy recommendation, with concerns about excess capacity in 1HFY26 but resilience expected due to lower commodity prices [3][38] Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) - The report maintains a Sell rating on Dixon and a Neutral rating on Amber, citing that export opportunities will depend on global tariffs and costs [4][42] Cables and Wires - Cables and wire companies are expected to benefit from ongoing power and infrastructure capex in the near term, but growth may moderate in FY27E [2][31] - The report notes that India represents 2-3% of global C&W exports, indicating significant export potential [2] Overall Market Valuation - The report indicates that multiples for several capital goods and building material stocks have been cut to reflect a tougher operating environment [1][10] - The report suggests that while the Indian economy is relatively insulated from a US slowdown, the correlation between Indian equity markets and US markets remains strong [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the primary property market, with a weighted average property price decrease of 2.2% month-over-month annualized in March, following a decline of 2.6% in February [2][8]. Core Insights - The divergence in property prices between top-tier and lower-tier cities continues, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a sequential increase of 0.5% month-over-month annualized in March, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities saw declines of 1.5% and 4.2% respectively [8][14]. - Year-on-year changes in the weighted average new home prices fell to -4.5% in March from -4.8% in February, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market despite easing policies [8][12]. - The report highlights that secondary market data suggests price declines of 5%-15% over the past year, further emphasizing the struggles faced by the property sector [8][12]. Summary by Sections Primary Market Performance - The weighted average property price in the primary market decreased by 2.2% month-over-month annualized in March, with a year-on-year decline of 4.5% [2][8]. - The number of cities with sequentially higher property prices increased in both primary and secondary markets in March, indicating some localized recovery [8][15]. Tier Classification - Tier-1 cities showed resilience with a 0.5% increase in property prices, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities faced declines of 1.5% and 4.2% respectively [8][14]. - The report suggests that lower-tier cities are facing stronger headwinds due to weaker growth fundamentals and oversupply issues compared to top-tier cities [8][12]. Policy and Market Outlook - Policymakers have intensified housing easing efforts since September, which have been more effective in stabilizing secondary home prices than previous measures [12]. - Continued housing easing measures are expected to stabilize home prices and secure the delivery of pre-sold homes, including potential cuts to mortgage rates and expanded bank lending [12][19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a forecasted augmented fiscal deficit for China at 14.5% of GDP by 2025, suggesting a need for aggressive fiscal easing to mitigate the impact of US tariff escalations [2]. Core Insights - Chinese policymakers are expected to implement significant fiscal easing measures to cushion the economic impact from external pressures, particularly from the US [2]. - The report highlights a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts for China and Mexico, reflecting broader economic challenges [9][93]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for China is reported at +4.7% for March, indicating a positive growth signal despite recent adjustments [12][49]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impacts - The fiscal policy impulse on China's real GDP growth is projected to be significant, with estimates indicating a notable effect on growth rates over the next few years [4][79]. - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal multipliers in assessing the impact of budget deficits on economic growth [4]. Economic Indicators - The report provides a detailed analysis of various economic indicators, including the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) and Current Activity Indicators (CAI), which are crucial for understanding the economic landscape [6][46]. - The CAI for global markets shows a mixed performance, with developed markets at +0.9% and emerging markets at +3.7% for March [12][49]. GDP Forecast Adjustments - Significant changes in GDP forecasts have been noted across various regions, with a particular focus on the downward revisions for China and other major economies [93][94]. - The report outlines specific percentage point changes in GDP forecasts, indicating a more cautious outlook for several countries, including a notable decrease for China [93][94].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weigao, AK Medical, and AngelAlign, while holding a "Neutral" rating for Jinxin and Tigermed [2][3][13]. Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of surgical volumes in 2025, with expectations of manageable impacts from recent regulatory changes and tariff adjustments [1][4]. - The focus is shifting towards internal operational management and shareholder returns, with companies emphasizing cash flow management and reducing capital expenditures [8][11]. Summary by Sections Surgical Volume and Regulatory Environment - Surgical volume is expected to trend positively in 2025, with many companies reporting improved sentiment at the start of the year [4]. - The impact of the Value-Based Pricing (VBP) is seen as manageable, with major players focusing on market share gains [4][7]. Company-Specific Developments - Weigao anticipates a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year in FY25, driven by new product ramp-ups [9]. - AK Medical's market share in Tier 1 hospitals has increased significantly, and the company expects continued growth in overseas markets [4][9]. - AngelAlign is focusing on overseas expansion, particularly in Europe, with a projected 50% year-on-year increase in overseas case volumes [9][19]. Financial Guidance and Earnings Revisions - The report revises sales estimates downwards for several companies, with average changes of -1.6% to -2.2% for 2025-2027 and earnings estimates down by -13.3% to -16.7% [1][14]. - Gushengtang expects revenue growth to exceed 25% year-on-year in FY25, while Jinxin did not provide specific revenue guidance due to uncertainties [8][19]. Target Price Changes - Target prices have been adjusted for several companies, with Hygeia's target price set at HK$27.60, AngelAlign at HK$76.20, and Gushengtang at HK$46.00 [13][17][18].