Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month target price of US$152 for PDD Holdings based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [2][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights the narrowing pricing gap between Temu and major U.S. eCommerce platforms, now at approximately 25% compared to 40% previously, following recent price adjustments by Temu [1][14]. - Temu's business model is shifting towards a semi-entrusted model in the U.S., which presents operational challenges compared to the full-entrusted model, including a reduced selection of SKUs and increased working capital pressure for merchants [1][16]. - Temu has been expanding into non-Western markets, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia, with significant growth observed in Japan, where it has achieved a 40-50% year-over-year growth rate over the past two years [1][18]. Summary by Sections Pricing Dynamics - Post-tariff pricing adjustments have led to a more manageable cost structure for cross-border eCommerce, with potential tariff rates of 40-50% translating to a 15-20% increase in prices, which can be absorbed by the value chain [1][19]. Business Model Transition - Temu's transition to a semi-entrusted model in the U.S. is expected to require additional working capital and may limit SKU availability, impacting merchant operations [1][16]. Market Expansion - Temu's geographical diversification strategies include rapid growth in niche markets in Europe, such as Cyprus and Georgia, and a strong presence in Japan [1][18]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial estimates for Temu, projecting significant growth in GMV from US$307 million in 2022 to US$50.5 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 165% for 2023 [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating on YOFC-A due to expectations of soft demand through 2025E [13][16]. Core Insights - YOFC's 1Q25 net profit reached Rmb152 million, exceeding expectations by 19%, driven by strong performance in the datacom segment, particularly from AI and datacenter demand [1][9]. - The datacom segment is projected to grow significantly due to increased capital expenditure from Chinese cloud companies, while the telecom segment remains weak, contributing over 60% of YOFC's revenue in 2024 [2][9]. - A key uncertainty is the upcoming fiber cable tender from China Mobile, which could impact pricing and overall growth momentum [2][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - YOFC's revenue estimates for 2025E have been revised up by approximately 2%, with net profit estimates increased by 7% to 12% [9][10]. - The 12-month price target for YOFC-H is revised to HK$12.5, based on a 9x 2026E P/E, while the A-share target is set at Rmb28.6, based on a 22x 2026E P/E [9][16]. Market Dynamics - The datacom segment is expected to benefit from strong demand, while the telecom market is currently experiencing muted demand [2][13]. - YOFC's pricing estimates for fiber cables in 2025E have factored in a 6% price drop compared to 2024 [2][9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that a recovery in demand in 2025 could lead to a more positive outlook for YOFC, particularly if the China Mobile tender results in improved pricing dynamics [13][14]. - Key upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand and pricing resilience, which could enhance margins and net profit outlook [14][17].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 6 May 2025 | 3:50PM SGT Sea Ltd. (SE) Buy 5.5 tracking shows slight uptick in consumer promotions vs 4.4 SE 12m Price Target: $167.00 Price: $142.50 Upside: 17.2% Following our prior tracking in April for 4.4, we highlight promotions given by Sea's Shopee & peers during the 5.5 sale period. Key observations: 1) In Indonesia, both Shopee & Tiktok increased promotions relative to 4.4 (reflected by lower final cost to consumer on average in our price sampling) though the trend w ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SMIC is maintained as "Buy" [7][8][11] Core Views - SMIC's 1Q25 revenue reached US$2.2 billion, reflecting a 28% year-over-year increase and a 2% quarter-over-quarter increase, aligning closely with consensus expectations [1][2] - The gross margin for 1Q25 was reported at 22.5%, exceeding both management guidance and market expectations, attributed to improved utilization rates [1][2] - The company is expected to continue significant capital expenditures to expand capacity in response to increasing demand from local clients [1][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was US$2,247 million, a 28% increase year-over-year and a 2% increase quarter-over-quarter [6] - Gross profit was US$506 million, with a gross margin of 22.5%, significantly higher than the previous year's 13.7% [6] - Operating income was US$310 million, representing a 12777% increase year-over-year [6] - Net income for 1Q25 was US$188 million, a 162% increase year-over-year [6] Capacity and Utilization - SMIC's capacity increased to 973k wpm (8-inch equivalent) in 1Q25, up from 948k wpm in 4Q24 [2][6] - Utilization rates improved from 85.5% in 4Q24 to 89.6% in 1Q25 [2][6] Future Guidance - For 2Q25, SMIC expects revenues to decrease by 4% to 6% quarter-over-quarter, while still projecting a year-over-year growth of 11% to 13% [6][7] - The gross margin for 2Q25 is guided to be between 18% and 20% [7] Investment Thesis - SMIC is positioned as the largest foundry in China, covering a wide range of technology nodes and applications, with a positive long-term growth outlook driven by local demand [7][8] - The shares are considered attractively valued, trading below historical average P/E ratios, with expectations of gradual margin recovery [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fen Wine, while issuing "Neutral" ratings for Anhui Gujing and Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery, and "Sell" ratings for Jiangsu Yanghe, Sichuan Swellfun, and Jiugui Liquor [7][8]. Core Insights - The spirits industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with average sales and net profit growth projected at 6% and 8% respectively for 2025, following a tough 4Q24 [1][6]. - Super premium brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continue to show resilience, achieving higher growth compared to mid- to low-end segments [2][16]. - Companies are adopting more cautious financial guidance for 2025, indicating a focus on channel health and inventory management [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales and Profit Performance - Spirits coverage saw a slowdown with average sales growth of 7% and net profit growth of 8% in 2024, with a tough 4Q24 showing only 3% sales growth [1][11]. - Moutai and Wuliangye reported strong sales growth of 16% and 7% respectively in 2024, while Jiangsu Yanghe faced a significant decline of 13% [13][16]. Company Guidance - Most companies have set lower financial guidance for 2025, reflecting caution regarding demand outlook and a focus on resolving channel inventory issues [5][18]. - Kweichow Moutai's guidance for 2025 includes a sales growth target of 9%, down from 15% in 2024 [18]. Market Trends - The report highlights a divergence in performance between super premium and upper mid-end players, with super premium brands maintaining stable demand while upper mid-end brands like Yanghe and Jiugui faced significant declines [16][22]. - The demand for upper mid-end spirits is declining, while super premium segments remain stable, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [20][22]. Shareholder Returns - There is a notable increase in dividend payout ratios across the sector, with some companies committing to high payout ratios and total cash dividends [17][28]. - Wuliangye and Laojiao have raised their dividend payout ratios to approximately 70% and 65% respectively, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [17]. Valuation and Earnings Revisions - The average P/E ratio for spirits coverage is currently at 16x for 2025, slightly above historical averages, with a general downward revision in earnings forecasts for several companies due to competitive pressures [1][6][28]. - Wuliangye's earnings forecast has been revised upwards, while forecasts for Gujing, King's Luck, Yanghe, and Swellfun have been revised downwards [6][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the semiconductor sector, including ACM Research, AMEC, AccoTest, Cambricon, Horizon Robotics, Montage, NAURA, Piotech, and Will Semi [13]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to see increased capital expenditure (capex) in the coming years, driven by local demand for advanced semiconductor capacities amid tariff uncertainties [2]. - There is a significant focus on high-end lithography systems, which are critical for producing advanced node semiconductors, as existing tools may soon become obsolete [3][4]. - The technology gap in lithography remains substantial, with a need for more skilled talent and a robust supply chain to support research and development [4][6]. Summary by Sections Investment in High-End SPEs - The industry is prioritizing investment in high-end lithography systems due to export controls on existing technologies, with a noted urgent demand for these systems in China [3]. Technology Gap - The complexity of lithography systems presents a significant challenge, requiring time for R&D and a greater pool of talent to expedite development [4][6]. Lithography Ecosystem - The lithography ecosystem in China is still in its early stages, with supply chain companies collaborating to develop necessary systems, although challenges remain in producing highly customized lens components [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on China equity, with a raised 12-month index target for MSCI China and CSI300 to 78 and 4,400, implying potential returns of 7% and 15% respectively [1][31]. Core Insights - Despite trade frictions with the US, China financial assets have shown resilience, with the Rmb appreciating against the USD by 1.7% in the past month and Chinese government bonds reaching all-time highs [1][2]. - The report highlights a targeted monetary easing package from the PBoC, NFRA, and CSRC, which includes 23 measures aimed at supporting the real economy and financial markets [6][8]. - The effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports is expected to decrease from around 160% to approximately 60%, which has led to an upward revision of the 2025 EPS growth estimate for MSCI China from 4% to 6% [1][10][13]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - China equity (MSCI China) has recovered 12% year-to-date and almost fully recovered from a 13% drawdown post-Liberation Day [1][3]. - Southbound flows to HK-listed equities have reached US$80 billion year-to-date, three times larger than the same period last year [19][20]. Monetary Policy - The recent monetary easing measures are seen as a positive surprise, aimed at improving liquidity and reducing funding costs, with a focus on demand-side support [6][8]. - Specific measures include a 50 basis point RRR cut providing approximately Rmb1 trillion in liquidity and targeted assistance for SMEs [8][10]. Economic Indicators - Hard data remains robust, with property sales in primary markets rising 26% year-over-year during the Labor Day holidays, particularly in tier-1 and tier-2 cities [10][11]. - However, soft data indicates signs of moderation, with declining trends in PMIs and cargo shipments [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - The report nudges up the 2025 EPS growth estimate for MSCI China to 6%, reflecting expectations of a lower effective US tariff rate and a stronger Rmb [10][13]. - The revised EPS integer forecast for 2026 remains 8% below the prevailing sell-side consensus [10]. Sector Focus - The report emphasizes a focus on sector and thematic alpha, particularly in domestic stimulus beneficiaries, select AI proxies, and local government spending beneficiaries [1][37]. - Banks and Real Estate have been upgraded to Overweight to enhance domestic exposure and sensitivity to policy easing [37][40].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a "Buy" rating for seven selected stocks within the property value chain, indicating a positive outlook for these companies as they are well-positioned to benefit from recovering housing upgrade needs and building renovation demand [3][34]. Core Insights - The property value chain is expected to see a significant shift towards domestic demand, driven by potential policy support aimed at mitigating external uncertainties. This shift is projected to create a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb5.7 trillion by 2035, representing a 70% increase compared to 2024 [3][34]. - The report anticipates an average 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in topline revenue for the property value chain companies through 2035, with a notable improvement in profitability and dividend yields due to operational efficiencies and disciplined capital expenditures [5][34]. Summary by Sections Property Value Chain Stocks - The report identifies seven stocks (CRL, Yuhong, BNBM, Kinlong, Robam, KE, and Greentown Service) as beneficiaries of domestic stimulus, all rated as "Buy" [3][34][18]. Executive Summary - The property construction value chain, which constitutes approximately 30% of China's GDP, has faced challenges due to the downturn. However, potential policy support for domestic demand is expected to accelerate housing upgrades and boost secondary market transactions [29][34]. Implications for the Value Chain - The report outlines three main implications for the value chain: a decline in demand for building products, a consolidation of the developer industry, and a significant shift towards secondary market transactions, which are projected to account for 66% of total housing transactions by 2035 [31][32][51]. Housing Market Outlook - By 2035, housing demand is expected to be 40% below peak levels, with a significant portion coming from Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities. The secondary market is projected to overtake the primary market in terms of transaction volume and value [42][51]. Renovation Demand - Renovation demand is anticipated to nearly double by 2035, contributing approximately 60% of total construction gross floor area (GFA), which will help offset the decline in new builds [54][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Nari Tech and other domestic China opportunities, while downgrading Sungrow to "Neutral" [3][24]. Core Views - The report indicates a preference for domestic China opportunities, particularly in the grid technology sector, with a strong outlook for 2025E grid investment [2][3]. - The overall sector results for 1Q25 were largely in-line, with a median revenue change of -0% and net profit change of -6% compared to Goldman Sachs estimates [1][10]. - The report revises target prices by -14% to +13% based on 1Q25 results and forward-looking trends, rolling over the valuation base year to 2026E [1][43]. Summary by Sections 1Q25 Results Summary - 1Q25 sector results were largely in-line with 14 companies missing earnings, 13 in-line, and 5 beating expectations [1][10]. - The median gross profit margin (GPM), operating profit margin (OPM), and net profit margin (NPM) were -0.9pp, -1.7pp, and -0.5pp compared to Goldman Sachs estimates [11]. Demand Outlook - The report expects a weaker demand outlook for industrial automation in 2H25, lowering the growth expectation from flat to -4% year-on-year due to tariff impacts and uncertainties [12][16]. - Despite the challenges, a deep decline in demand is not anticipated, with government policies potentially providing support [14][20]. Domestic Opportunities - Nari Tech is highlighted as a preferred investment due to its strong growth guidance of 12% year-on-year for 2025, attributed to a robust backlog and favorable market conditions [24][46]. - The report emphasizes the potential benefits from government stimulus and the structural needs for smart grid investments in China [3][25]. AI Beneficiaries - The report continues to favor AI beneficiaries, particularly in the AI Data Centre (AIDC) space, with companies like Kstar and Envicool rated as "Buy" due to strong demand growth [2][34]. - The humanoid robot sector is also noted for its rapid R&D advancements, with companies like Sanhua being preferred for their product certainty and reasonable valuations [38][39]. Target Price Revisions - Target prices for the sector have been revised downwards by an average of -14% to +13%, reflecting the 1Q25 results and anticipated market trends [1][43].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The upcoming implementation of large tariffs is expected to reverse the progress made in controlling inflation in the US, which had previously shown signs of stabilization in the labor market and wage growth [2][3] - Tariffs are projected to increase the core PCE price index by approximately 2¼%, with a significant impact on consumer electronics and apparel categories [6][22] - Year-over-year core PCE inflation is forecasted to be 3.8% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, which is higher than previous estimates [39][55] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Prices - Each 1 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate is estimated to raise core PCE prices by 0.10%, with an expected rise of about 15 percentage points in the effective tariff rate leading to a 1½% increase in core PCE prices [6][22] - The weakening of the dollar in response to tariff news is expected to amplify the direct impact of tariffs on prices [11][22] - A shift in import demand from China to countries with higher production costs but lower US tariff rates is anticipated to further raise US prices without a corresponding increase in the effective tariff rate [11][19] Sector-Specific Effects - Consumer electronics and apparel are particularly vulnerable to tariff impacts, with imported goods accounting for roughly 40% of final consumption expenditure in these categories [35][41] - The effective tariff rates on these imports are expected to increase by 20-30 percentage points, leading to significant price increases [35][41] Inflation Forecasts - The report predicts a sharp acceleration in core goods inflation, forecasting a rise from 0.4% in March 2025 to 6.3% in December 2025 [39][55] - Core services inflation is expected to remain less affected by tariffs in the initial months, allowing for a clearer comparison of the impact of tariffs on core goods versus core services [39][55] Market Expectations - The report indicates that the forecast for year-over-year headline CPI inflation is expected to rise from 2.4% to as high as 3.7% by March 2025, which is above market-implied expectations [55][56]