A Further Increase in Our Tariff Assumptions (Walker / Phillips / Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 30 March 2025 | 4:52PM EDT US Economics Analyst David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jessica Ri ...

30 March 2025 | 7:27PM EDT US Equity Views Higher tariffs and weaker growth reduce our earnings estimates and S&P 500 return forecasts David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jayachandran@gs.com Goldman Sachs & ...

4月还将标志着美联储资产负债表缩减的进一步放缓。我们的利率策略师预计，量化紧缩（即允许债券到期而不将 收益再投资）将在2025年第三季度末结束。虽然量化紧缩的缩减应会缓解股票风险溢价的压力，但在我们的股票 风险溢价（ERP）模型中，增长预期的信号强度是美联储资产负债表规模的三倍。我们的利率策略师预计，10年期 美国国债名义收益率到年底将维持在4.35%，与当前水平相近。 我们的基线预测是，标准普尔500指数在未来三个月将持平，但随着经济和收益持续增长，到年底将上涨11%。对 于股市的近期走势而言，对这一增长前景的调整将比收益率的变化更为重要。标准普尔500指数的回报率通常对股 市对经济增长的定价变化比对实际收益率的变化更为敏感，而且这种关系最近有所加强。除了关税，周五的就业 报告将是股票投资者的关键信号。 一些对利率敏感的股票的表现最近与利率走势出现了背离。长期股票，如我们的长期和非盈利科技篮子股票，在 股市抛售期间表现滞后。相比之下，像房地产这样的 "债券替代品" 表现优于大盘。在本报告中，我们对长期 和短期篮子进行了重新平衡（成分股见图表14和图表15）。 与客户的对话：4月政策调整对股市的影响 随着20 ...

26 March 2025 | 7:11AM HKT China Musings Global marketing feedback: China is back We have held extensive meetings with investors in Asia, the US, and Europe in the past month to discuss views and ideas on Chinese equities. We summarize clients' feedback and FAQs, and our latest market thoughts as follows: Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Si Fu, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com G ...

26 March 2025 | 8:49PM GMT Precious Analyst Gold: Raising Our End-2025 Forecast to $3,300; Top 10 Questions Lina Thomas +44(20)7051-3062 | lina.thomas@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a8 ...

25 March 2025 | 7:37PM EDT US Daily: How Much Have Inflation Expectations Increased? (Peng) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a structurally bullish outlook on copper prices, forecasting a price target of $10,200 per ton for Q4 2025, driven by strong electrification demand, China stimulus, and slower mine supply growth [4][10]. Core Insights - The LME copper price briefly traded above $10,000 per ton on March 20, before retreating to under $9,850 per ton, but remains up 12% year-to-date [4]. - The recent strength in LME copper prices is attributed to two main factors: the impact of Section 232 on US copper tariffs and a positive shift in sentiment regarding China's economic outlook [4]. - The report anticipates a market deficit of 180,000 tons by 2025, with stockpiling in the US making the global market appear tighter [4]. - China's State Reserve Bureau (SRB) plans to increase copper stockpiles in 2025, which is seen as a defensive measure against potential shortages rather than opportunistic buying [4]. Summary by Sections - **Price Trends**: The LME copper price has shown volatility, with a significant increase driven by tariff-related factors and positive sentiment from China [4][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the influence of US trade policy updates on copper prices, indicating potential risks from upcoming announcements [4]. - **Forecasts**: The report outlines a bullish price forecast for copper, with specific quarterly targets leading up to 2026, reflecting expectations of strong demand and supply constraints [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - Hedge Funds have reversed 17% of year-to-date buying in China, indicating a shift in sentiment towards Chinese equities [8][9] - Indonesia has experienced significant foreign outflows, particularly from the banking sector, with approximately US$2 billion in outflows year-to-date [26][23] - Asia and Emerging Market mutual funds are continuing to reduce their overweight positions in Indonesia [28][23] Summary by Relevant Sections Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Flows - EM Asia excluding China saw FII selling of US$0.5 billion week-over-week, with Taiwan leading the outflows at US$1.1 billion [33] - Inflows were observed in Korea, which saw US$1.7 billion in FII inflows this week [33] - Year-to-date, Indonesia has seen foreign outflows of about US$2 billion, primarily driven by selling in banks [26][23] China Flows and Positioning - Hedge Funds have reversed 17% of their year-to-date risk-on buying in China, leading to marginal net selling in Chinese equities for the month-to-date period [8][9] - China's allocation in mutual funds globally rose by 60 basis points in February, ending at 6.5%, which is in the 12th percentile over the past ten years [17][22] - Southbound buying has moderated this week, with a total of US$3 billion in net buying year-to-date [8][17] Global Equity Mutual Fund Flows - Global equity mutual funds saw inflows of US$43 billion week-over-week, contrasting with US$3 billion in outflows the previous week [7] - Developed Markets (DM) funds, particularly in the US, Europe, and Japan, experienced significant inflows [7] Domestic Institutional Investor (DII) Flows - Asia markets saw US$2.4 billion in DII inflows this week, led by India with US$0.9 billion [45] - Non-Asia EM markets experienced US$0.2 billion in DII outflows, primarily from Brazil [45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Delta, EMC, and TUC, while maintaining a Neutral rating on Lotes and a Sell rating on ITEQ [3][20][31][36]. Core Insights - The global AI server rack shipment estimate has been cut by 35% for 2025 and 10% for 2026, primarily due to slower demand from AI server customers and supply constraints in production [1][2]. - Earnings estimates for key Taiwan technology component suppliers have been revised down by 1%-9% for 2025-2026, leading to an average target price decline of 12.5% [3][20][28][34]. Summary by Company Delta - Delta's target price has been cut from NT$580 to NT$550, with a 40% upside potential [3][11]. - Earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been reduced by 9%/6%/4% due to slower AI server shipments [12][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from new power rack solutions, although overall gross margins may be lower than traditional PSU solutions [10][14]. EMC - EMC's target price has been revised down from NT$865 to NT$760, implying a 30% upside [3][20]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been slightly reduced by less than 1%, while 2026/27 estimates have been cut by 2% [21][24]. - The company maintains a strong market share in M8 grade CCL but faces risks from high-end glass fiber supply constraints [19]. TUC - TUC's target price has been cut from NT$330 to NT$290, with a 65% upside potential [3][20]. - Earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been reduced by 2% across the board, reflecting less favorable AI server shipment revenue [28][30]. - The company is expected to remain resilient due to its focus on 800G switch projects and ASIC AI servers [19]. ITEQ - ITEQ's target price has been revised down from NT$65 to NT$58, indicating a 21% downside [3][36]. - Earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been cut by 2%/4%/3% due to less favorable AI server revenue contributions [34][36]. - The company is expected to face challenges due to a less favorable product mix impacting gross margins [34].

Investment Rating - The report has reduced the Brent price forecast and expected trading range by $5 to $65-80/bbl [2][7] Core Insights - The medium-term risks to the price forecast are skewed to the downside due to rising recession risks and elevated spare capacity [2][8] - Non-OPEC+ supply growth is expected to decrease significantly with lower Brent prices, providing a softer price floor compared to OPEC+ cuts [2][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of producer hedging strategies as prices recover in the short term [52] Summary by Sections Price Forecast and Market Dynamics - The Brent price forecast was adjusted downwards following a downgrade in the US GDP growth forecast and OPEC+ production increases [2][7] - Non-OPEC+ production growth is sensitive to price changes, with a decrease of 0.3mb/d for each $10/bbl price drop when Brent is above $70/bbl [2][42] Non-OPEC+ Supply Response - Non-OPEC+ production growth is projected to fall from 1.05mb/d to 0.6mb/d at $60/bbl Brent prices, and to -0.1mb/d at $50/bbl [2][46] - The supply response is non-linear, with significant production shut-ins possible as prices approach well-head variable costs [2][39] Price Sensitivity and Decline Rates - The report indicates that lower oil prices lead to higher decline rates in existing fields, with a 0.5% increase in decline rates for a $10/bbl price drop [14][17] - The non-OPEC+ ex-US supply response is characterized by a steep cost curve, becoming more elastic as prices approach well-head variable costs [31][39] Hedging Recommendations - The report recommends producer three-way hedges to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and to capitalize on potential price recoveries [52]