↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：聪明投资者 来源：雪球 2026年1月5日 ， 桥水创始人瑞 · 达利欧 （ Ray Dalio ） 发布最新长文复盘2025年 。 达利欧认为 ， 2025年真正决定胜负的回报来源其实只有两条主线 ： 第一 ， 货币价值如何变动 ， 尤其是美元 、 其他法币与黄金 ； 第二 ， 美股在强势货币计价下显得没那么强 ， 并且整体显著跑输非美股市与黄金 ， 而黄金又是全年表现最好的主要市场 。 在他看来 ， AI热潮已进入泡沫早期 ； 美股在美元口径下虽强 ， 但黄金与非美资产的相对表现更值得重视 。 达利欧还用当前美股与债券收益率所处的位置来推算长期预期回报 ， 得到的 长期股票的预期回报大约在4.7% ， 而现有债券回报约在4.9% ， 这意味着股票风险溢价已经非常薄 。 这些观点都是建立在达利欧过去一年多常用的宏观框架之上 ， 即影响世界秩序的五大力量 ， 文章更像一份宏观再校准 ： 不要只盯名义收益 ， 更要盯住货币 、 风险溢价与流动性边际变化 ， 以及政治与地缘秩序如何改变 ...

2026 年 1月5日 ，桥水创始人瑞 ·达利欧（Ray Dalio）发布最新长文复盘2025 年。 达利欧 认为， 2025年真正决定胜负的回报来源其实只有两条主线：第一，货币价值如何变动，尤其是美 元、其他法币与黄金；第二，美股在强势货币计价下显得没那么强，并且整体显著跑输非美股市与黄金，而 黄金又是全年表现最好的主要市场。 在他看来， AI热潮已进入泡沫早期 ； 美股在美元口径下虽强，但黄金与非美资产的相对表现更值得 重视 。 达利欧还 用当前 美股 与债券收益率所处的位置来推算长期预期回报，得到的 长期 股票的 预期回报大约在 4.7% ， 而现有债券回报约在 4.9% ，这意 味着股票风险溢价已经非常薄。 这些观点都是建立在达利欧过去一年多常用的宏观框架之上，即影响世界秩序的五大力量，文章 更像一份 宏观再校准：不要只盯名义收益，更要盯住货币、风险溢价与流动性边际变化，以及政治与地缘秩序如何改 变资本偏好。 有些不同于主流的角度，比如对于降息预期的冷思考 。 推荐一看。 聪明投资者（ID: Capital-nature） 精译整理分享给大家，并增加小标题提升阅读感。 推荐阅读2025年达利欧最精彩的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the U.S. economy remains strong through 2026, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 9%, but investors should prepare for a potential 20% drop in case of a recession [1] - Stifel estimates a 25% probability of a recession occurring, despite it not being the base case for major Wall Street firms [1] - The labor market shows signs of instability, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could lead to reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting an economy where 68% of GDP comes from consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The current stock valuations are at historical highs, which may pose challenges for investors, as the median market correction during recessions since World War II has been 20% [1] - Barry Bannister emphasizes that the price-to-earnings ratio becomes crucial when the S&P 500 is perceived as overvalued [2] - High-volatility stocks, such as Palantir and GameStop, have seen significant declines, indicating a potential early warning for a broader market downturn [2] Group 3 - The S&P 500's equity risk premium is nearing levels seen during the late 1990s and early 2000s dot-com bubble, suggesting heightened risk in current valuations [4] - Bannister's fundamental prediction is for the S&P 500 to achieve positive returns by 2026, but he advises establishing hedging positions with defensive stocks [6] - Recommended defensive ETFs include the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) [6]

即将到来的12月19日，注定将令全球投资者倍感紧张。 日本央行，大概率会选择在这天宣布加息。 02 股市有支撑日本本土股更占优 考虑到日元在全球货币体系中的特殊地位，退出超宽松政策后的日元究竟会如何影响全球金融市场情 绪，以及日本股市的牛市会否收到冲击，成为市场近期关注的焦点。 法兴银行日前发布研究报告称："如无意外，日本央行在12月19日加息基本无悬念，这是其退出超宽松 政策的关键一步。" 法兴银行预测，日本12月加息已成定局，2026年7月再加息一次，政策收紧节奏温和。对于日本股市未 必会造成很强的负面影响。预计日经指数2026年底将冲击53000点大关；其中，日本银行股凭借政策、 基本面改善和估值优势，有望成为最值得关注的核心板块。 01 加息节奏明确："两步走"后暂停 法国兴业银行判断，日本央行退出超宽松政策后，后续货币政策收紧路径将极为谨慎： 2026年7月可能迎来第二次加息，将政策利率抬至中性利率区间下限(1%) 触及中性利率后，日本央行将暂停加息至少9个月(甚至1年)，避免过度冲击经济 这种"加息-评估-再加息"的温和节奏，为股市提供了相对稳定的政策环境，无需担心紧缩过快引发的估 值踩踏。 尽管 ...

Core Insights - The dollar is regaining its status as one of the most attractive global assets, countering previous "sell America" narratives that raised concerns about the future of this global reserve currency [1] - A simple strategy of borrowing low-yield currencies like the yen or Swiss franc to invest in dollars appears to offer higher potential returns than European equities [1] - Despite a nearly 7% decline in the dollar index this year, it has rebounded about 3% from September's lows, partly due to "arbitrage trading" [1] Group 1: Dollar's Appeal - The attractiveness of dollar arbitrage trading is bolstered by a sharp decline in dollar volatility, partly due to prolonged government shutdowns that have suppressed price fluctuations in the global forex market [2] - Institutions estimate arbitrage returns by comparing borrowing rates of the yen and Swiss franc with dollar investment yields, using earnings yields as a proxy for stock returns [2] Group 2: Market Concerns - As the appeal of arbitrage trading rises, investors are worried that the AI-driven global stock market rally may soon end, with the S&P 500 index having surged over a third since April [3] - The risk premium for U.S. stocks, measured by the difference between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, has turned negative, indicating that U.S. stocks may not provide returns on a risk-adjusted basis [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - For "dollar bulls" looking to increase their dollar arbitrage strategies before 2026, there remains hope [4] - The U.S. inflation rate of 3% in September is significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, posing challenges for officials and influencing future monetary policy decisions [5] - If strong economic data continues, it may support the attractiveness of dollar arbitrage trading, as long as macroeconomic and financial market conditions remain resilient [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin indicates that the Federal Reserve's decision to initiate monetary policy easing is likely to extend the upward cycle of the U.S. stock market [1] - Kostin expects the S&P 500 index to close at 6200 points by the end of 2025, suggesting moderate upside potential from current levels, with the possibility of higher gains if inflation continues to decline and the Fed maintains an accommodative stance [1] - Interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate, financials, and certain technology companies related to capital expenditures are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed's easing policies [1] Group 2 - Kostin warns that the stock market's rise is not without risks, including persistent wage pressures and rising input costs that could impact corporate profit margins [2] - The upcoming mid-term elections in 2026 may introduce political uncertainties that could dampen market sentiment [2] - Goldman Sachs projects that the earnings per share (EPS) growth for S&P 500 constituents will reach 7% in both 2025 and 2026, indicating that despite current high valuations, the market is approaching reasonable value given the macroeconomic environment and corporate fundamentals [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "10-year Treasury yield - CSI 300 dividend yield" is used as the core indicator to observe the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds. The current difference is near the +1 standard deviation of the one - year rolling window and at the upper limit of the past three years, indicating that the bond's allocation value is gradually increasing, but it is not yet the time for re - allocation between stocks and bonds, and the bond market still has upward pressure [3][4][5]. - The asymmetric compression of the indicator's range since 2021 is unsustainable, and the range may return to the historical normal state of [-2 standard deviations, +2 standard deviations] due to factors such as the upward revision of fundamental expectations and the increase in investors' risk appetite [4][63][64]. - In the short term, the bond market is under phased pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 year - on - year data, the increase in market risk appetite, and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies. Attention should be paid to the redemption situation of bond - type funds to avoid potential negative feedback effects [7][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review: Treasury Yields Fluctuated Upward - From August 11th to 15th, Treasury yields fluctuated upward, with the stock - bond seesaw effect dominating the bond market. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields rose by 1.59bp and 5.74bp respectively, closing at 1.3665% and 1.7465% [2][12]. - On August 11th - 12th, the bond market sentiment was under pressure due to the continuous strengthening of the equity market. On August 13th, after the release of the July financial data, the 10 - year Treasury yield slightly declined under the game of multiple and short factors. On August 14th, the bond market yield fluctuated due to the rise and fall of the equity market and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. On August 15th, the Treasury yield reversed and rose due to the strong rebound of the equity market [12][13]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Funding Situation: Funding Rates First Declined and Then Rose - From August 11th to 15th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 4,149.00 million yuan. The R001 and DR001 rose, while the R007 and DR007 declined. The SHIBOR rate also showed an upward trend [25][26][37]. - The difference between R007 and DR007 narrowed, indicating a narrowing of the funding cost difference between non - bank institutions and banks. The term spread of FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y widened [26]. 3.2.2 Supply Side: Total Issuance and Net Financing Decreased - From August 11th to 15th, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, and the net financing amount also decreased. The issuance of government bonds decreased, and the net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased [41][44][51]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing amount decreased. The issuance scale of state - owned commercial banks was the highest among different bank types, and the 1 - year term had the highest issuance scale among different term types [51]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Current Position of Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Ratio - The "10 - year Treasury yield - CSI 300 dividend yield" is used to measure the stock - bond cost - performance ratio. Since 2021, the fluctuation range has been asymmetrically compressed, but it is expected to return to the historical normal state [3][61][63]. - As of August 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yield was about 1.74%, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 2.76%, and the stock - bond yield difference was - 1.02% [4][63]. 3.3.2 Next Week's Outlook: The Central Funding Rate May Rise Due to Tax - Period Disturbance - Next week, the supply pressure of Treasury bonds will increase. The planned issuance of Treasury bonds is 36.2 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds is 36.915 billion yuan [67]. - Due to the tax - period disturbance and the expiration of reverse - repurchases, the central funding rate may rise [68]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market is Under Phased Pressure, and Potential Negative Feedback Effects Should be Watched Out - The bond market is under phased pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 year - on - year data, the increase in market risk appetite, and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [7][69]. - The strengthening of the equity market is the biggest risk for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the redemption situation of bond - type funds to avoid potential bond - market stampede risks [7][69]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - US Treasury yields generally rose, and the curve steepened. The 10Y - 2Y term spread widened by 7bp to 58bp [72]. - The US dollar index declined, and the US dollar against the RMB central parity rate slightly decreased. The prices of gold, silver, and crude oil all fell [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The extreme divergence between credit spreads and stock risk premiums led to the starting point of the current A-share valuation expansion. The current round of A-share market is driven by funds, and the logic has only reached the middle stage, with the upward trend unfinished [2]. - The fact that the risk premium has reached "mean - 1 standard deviation" does not mean the end of the market. Considering the intensity and duration of the current round of fund - driven, A - share valuations are expected to continue to expand, driving the risk premium to decline further, and the risk - compensation returns of stocks and bonds will eventually converge [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Historically, the stock market risk premium can stay below "mean - 1 standard deviation" for a long time - There were several historical periods when the stock market risk premium fell below "mean - 1 standard deviation", such as from December 2014 to August 2015, November 2017 to February 2018, and September 2020 to April 2021, with durations of 9 months, 2 months, and 8 months respectively. Except for the 2017 - 2018 period when the risk premium could not continue to decline due to rapid liquidity withdrawal, in other periods, it could fall to around "mean - 2 standard deviations" or even lower [3]. - These historical periods had similar macro - environments that did not support a bull market in stocks. The factors driving the significant expansion of A - share valuations were not fundamental but fund - driven, and there was no continuous expansion of corporate profits [3]. 2. In the current round of the market, the indexes have expanded to varying degrees, and there are no signs of an end - Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has priced in the decline of the risk - free rate. Different sectors have different repair progress. The repair of large - cap stocks is relatively large, with the ERP basically reaching "mean - 1 standard deviation", while the ERP of small - and medium - cap stocks is still above the historical mean [4]. - The current round of valuation expansion also starts from changes in the capital side. Since September 2024, the economic fundamentals and corporate profit growth have been weak, and the monetary policy has been relatively loose. The core factor determining the start and end of the market is the sustainability of fund - driving. The current round of fund - driven logic has only evolved to institutional - driven and allocation - driven (insurance funds taking the lead), and bank wealth management and public funds will take over in the second half of the year [4]. - With the expansion of A - share valuations, the risk premium of the Shanghai Composite Index has been below "mean - 1 standard deviation" since July 18, lasting for less than 1 month. "Mean - 1 standard deviation" cannot be a sign of the end of the market, especially since the risk premiums of some sectors are still above the mean [4]. 3. Valuation expansion space calculation under two scenario assumptions - Historically, the extreme situation of index valuation expansion is in the range of "mean - N standard deviations", where N is between 0.6 - 4.0, with a median of approximately 2.0. - Scenario 1 assumes that the stock market risk premium can fall to "mean - 2 standard deviations"; Scenario 2 assumes that it can fall to "mean - N standard deviations", where N corresponds to the lowest level previously reached by the index's ERP. - Based on these two assumptions, the ChiNext Index has the largest PE expansion space, followed by the Wind 300 (ex - banks), CSI 1000, and CSI 500. The PE expansion spaces of the SSE 50, Shanghai Composite Index, and Wind Dividend Index are relatively small, but there is still expansion space even in a conservative scenario [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The TIC report from the U.S. Treasury reveals that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $9.0134 trillion as of April, showing a year-over-year increase but a month-over-month decrease, with Japan, the UK, and China being the top holders [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - As of April, foreign holdings of U.S. debt totaled $9.0134 trillion, an increase of $977.2 billion year-over-year but a decrease of $36.1 billion month-over-month [1]. - The top three holders of U.S. debt are Japan ($1.13 trillion), the UK ($807.7 billion), and China ($757.2 billion), with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China decreased its [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Since April, there has been significant market volatility attributed to a sentiment of "selling America," raising questions about whether this is a temporary shift or a long-term reallocation of global capital [5][7]. - The report indicates that 12 of the top 20 foreign holders reduced their U.S. debt holdings by a total of $125.2 billion, while 8 increased their holdings by $66.9 billion, suggesting mixed trends among foreign investors [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Concerns over U.S. fiscal issues have led to an increase in term premiums, as investors demand additional compensation for taking on term risk, which has affected the correlation between stocks and bonds [5][12]. - The long-term attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries may be challenged if fiscal imbalances are not addressed, potentially leading to higher yields on long-term bonds [12]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Japan's substantial holdings of U.S. debt are seen as a strategic asset for trade negotiations, although officials have stated they do not intend to use these holdings as leverage [10]. - The ongoing discussions about U.S. fiscal sustainability and its impact on Treasury yields highlight the delicate balance between maintaining investor confidence and addressing budget deficits [12].

Group 1: Market Reactions to Credit Rating Downgrade - The U.S. stock market experienced a slight increase, with the S&P 500 index rising for the sixth consecutive day despite Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 [1] - Following the downgrade, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield initially surged to 4.995% and the 10-year yield to 4.521%, but both yields later retreated [1] - Analysts noted that the downgrade may lead investors to reassess the risk premium of U.S. assets, increasing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. long-term debt [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury and Corporate Bonds - Short-term reactions to the downgrade may force some institutions to sell U.S. Treasuries, but the overall demand for U.S. debt remains strong due to higher yields compared to other developed countries [2] - The total U.S. debt remains at $36.2 trillion, with $8 trillion in bonds maturing since May, indicating that new debt issuance can absorb maturing funds without default risk [2] - The Federal Reserve's support for U.S. Treasuries helps maintain market liquidity and stabilizes corporate bonds, making them an attractive investment option [2] Group 3: AI and Technology Developments - NVIDIA announced its transformation into an "AI infrastructure company," launching several new products and partnerships aimed at building a trillion-dollar AI infrastructure market [3] - The introduction of upgraded systems and collaboration with companies like DeepMind and Hon Hai aims to enhance AI capabilities and support various industries, including automotive [3] - NVIDIA's CUDAx ecosystem is expected to become a core component of global AI infrastructure, with significant market potential [3] Group 4: Cybersecurity Sector Insights - Palo Alto Networks is expected to report higher quarterly sales driven by AI adoption and strong demand for cybersecurity solutions [5] - The company's stock has shown resilience, with a target price increase from $215 to $225, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from its recent closing price [5] - The cybersecurity sector is recognized as essential for the digital age, with significant growth potential as companies increasingly prioritize security [5] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Premium - The Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management report highlights that the current risk premium in the U.S. stock market is too low, reducing its attractiveness [6] - The report suggests that ongoing economic risks from tariffs may impact certain sectors, while technology, healthcare, and consumer staples remain relatively insulated [7] - Analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts this year, which could influence stock market dynamics and risk premiums [7] Group 6: Netflix's Strong Performance - Netflix received a "buy" rating from Barron's, with its stock price rising 25% since April, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 4% increase [8] - The company has shown resilience against tariff impacts and has expanded its user base to over 300 million subscribers, with a market capitalization nearing $500 billion [8] - Analysts expect Netflix's EBITDA to grow by 26% this year, indicating strong long-term growth potential despite a high price-to-earnings ratio [8]