Research 2025年3月17日 | 11:45PM HKT 中国:决策层更关注提振消费,但政策细节仍不明朗 概要: 3月16日,国务院印发《提振消费专项行动方案》。随后,国家发改委会同多 个部门在3月17日举行新闻发布会并答记者问。行动方案概要指出了中国政府提振消 费的总体思路,包括提高居民收入和财富、提升社会保障支持、加大消费品以旧换新 支持力度、提高消费产品质量、促进服务消费以及取消各类限购措施。然而，除两会 上已经公布的内容外，行动方案和新闻发布会都并未给出具体的政策措施。 要点: 1. 去年12月的中央经济工作会议和3月份李强总理在两会上所作的政府工作报告都将 "提振消费"作为今年政策的重中之重。在3月6日的新闻发布会上,发改委主任 郑栅洁表示一项全面的消费行动方案很快将公布实施。3月16日，国务院印发《提 振消费专项行动方案》。随后,发改委会同多个部门在3月17日举行新闻发布会并 迪安竹 +852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 闪辉 +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.c 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 于立升 +85 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has increased significantly, impacting employment growth in developed markets [4][5]. - A rise in TPU to levels seen during the 2018-2019 trade war is estimated to lower year-over-year employment growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, translating to a monthly job growth reduction of approximately 10,000 to 30,000 jobs in the US and Euro area [10][24]. - The manufacturing sector is particularly affected, with a peak drag on employment growth estimated at 0.5 percentage points [10][24]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy Uncertainty and Employment - A large body of research indicates that TPU negatively impacts GDP primarily through delayed investments, but its effects on employment have been less studied [3][5]. - The report estimates that if TPU rises to 2018-2019 levels, it could slow employment growth in developed markets, particularly in manufacturing [10][24]. Regional Analysis - The analysis shows that regions with higher trade exposure, such as certain provinces in Canada and states in the US, experienced greater slowdowns in hiring during the last trade war [16][20]. - The report suggests that similar patterns may emerge in 2025, with trade-exposed economies facing more significant employment challenges due to rising TPU [16][20]. Statistical Evidence - Historical data supports the conclusion that increases in TPU have historically led to slower job growth, especially in trade-sensitive regions [20][24]. - The report includes various charts illustrating the relationship between TPU and employment growth, highlighting the statistical significance of these findings [12][30].

2025年3月17日 | 8:35PM EDT 美国经济日评: 新政府就职以来移民人数下降了多少? (书 雷 Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | ian.hatzius@gs.com 高盛集团 Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 alec.phillips@gs.com 高盛集团 manuel.abecasis@gs.com 高盛集团 Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com 高盛集团 Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com 高盛集团 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 ■ 美国的移民政策在2025年前两个月明显收紧。这导致人道主义移民和其他移民 (即未获得签证或绿卡的移民)的折年人数从140万人降至20万人。虽然驱逐出境 人数与以往的趋势基本一致，但流入人口的减少隐含月度折年净移民人数从12月 份的170万人 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant downgrade in US growth forecasts, with a revised baseline GDP forecast of 1.7% on a Q4/Q4 basis, down from 2.4% at the start of the year [7] Core Insights - The report highlights two major shifts in macro markets: a downgrade in US growth and an upgrade in fiscal impulse in Germany, challenging the narrative of US exceptionalism and suggesting a more balanced global growth outlook [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for US equities to find relief if policy uncertainty is reduced or if economic data remains resilient amid market volatility [1][7] - It discusses the implications of rising policy uncertainty and tariffs on US growth, indicating that the market is now pricing in a higher risk of recession [8][11] Summary by Sections US Growth Outlook - The report notes a sharp downgrade in US cyclical pricing due to weaker data and policy uncertainty, with market pricing reflecting a 150 basis points downgrade to 1-year-ahead GDP growth views [7][10] - It suggests that the current market pricing is still optimistic, with potential for further downside if growth deteriorates more than expected [7][11] Policy Implications - The report discusses the Administration's signals regarding recession risks, which have led to increased market concerns about the effectiveness of policy measures to support growth [8][11] - It indicates that a shift in policy messaging could provide immediate relief to equity markets, emphasizing the importance of clear communication from policymakers [13][35] European Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant fiscal turnaround in Germany, with GDP forecasts for Germany and the Euro area being raised due to expected fiscal expansions [16] - It notes that the aggressive fiscal response in Germany could shift market expectations and reduce the likelihood of poor growth outcomes in the Euro area [16] Emerging Markets Resilience - The report points out that emerging markets, particularly China, have shown resilience amid tariff impositions, with potential upside if growth targets are met [28] - It mentions that lower oil prices could benefit many emerging markets, supporting local earnings and equities [28] Portfolio Strategy - The report advocates for a diversified portfolio approach, suggesting that gains in non-US equities and US Treasuries can help cushion losses in US equities [32] - It outlines two potential scenarios for the coming months, emphasizing the need for a diversified strategy to navigate varying growth outcomes [32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or company discussed Core Insights - The FOMC is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, waiting for clearer economic signals and reduced policy uncertainty under the new administration [3][6][31] - A significant increase in the effective tariff rate has led to upward revisions in inflation forecasts and downward adjustments in GDP growth projections for 2025 [7][19] - The FOMC's median economic projections are anticipated to show a 0.3 percentage point increase in core PCE inflation to 2.8% and a 0.3 percentage point decrease in GDP growth to 1.8% for 2025 [19][21] - The report suggests two potential paths for interest rate cuts: normalization cuts if tariffs are lower than expected, or "insurance cuts" in response to economic risks posed by higher tariffs [31][32] Summary by Sections Economic Projections - The report forecasts a 2025 core PCE inflation of 2.8% and GDP growth of 1.8%, reflecting recent tariff developments [19][21] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.2% in 2025, with a gradual decrease to 3.9% by 2027 [21] - The Fed Funds Rate is expected to remain at 3.875% in 2025, with potential cuts later in the year [21][24] Tariff Impact - The effective tariff rate is projected to increase by 10 percentage points, influencing inflation and growth forecasts [7][8] - The report indicates that the FOMC participants may not fully incorporate the new tariff expectations into their projections until more clarity is achieved [18] Policy Uncertainty - Elevated policy uncertainty is likely to keep the FOMC on the sidelines, delaying any immediate interest rate cuts [6][10] - The report highlights that the Fed leadership may prefer to maintain a forecast of two cuts in 2025 to mitigate market turbulence [24][27] Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC is expected to discuss options for slowing balance sheet runoff, with a potential decision to stop Treasury runoff in May [43][44]

17 March 2025 | 2:55AM HKT Navigating China Internet What to expect & key investor focuses into mega-caps Tencent, Meituan & PDD prints With Tencent, Meituan and PDD reporting this week, we expect solid 4Q24 results on the back of healthy goods/services consumption trends in the quarter (GSe: Tencent/Meituan/PDD top line growth of +8%/+19%/+24% yoy and adj. group EBIT growth of +22%/+405%/+11% yoy, respectively), while management commentaries on 2025 outlook/direction of 2025E EPS revisions will be key, giv ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a moderately bullish outlook on oil prices, with a revised forecast for Brent oil at $71/bbl for December 2025, down from a previous estimate of $76/bbl [16][18][80]. Core Insights - Brent oil prices have decreased from over $80/bbl in mid-January to around $70/bbl, primarily due to a shift in market focus from supply risks related to Russia and Iran to concerns over slower US GDP growth [2][6][17]. - The report anticipates oil demand growth of 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, a reduction from the previous forecast of 1.1 mb/d, influenced by slower US economic growth and higher tariffs [22][24]. - OPEC+ supply is expected to increase starting in April 2025, which contributes to the downward revision in price forecasts [30][31]. Summary by Sections Price Forecasts - The December 2025 forecast for Brent oil is reduced to $71/bbl (WTI at $67), with a range of $65-80 for Brent and an average forecast of $68 for 2026 [16][18][80]. - The report expects a modest recovery in prices in the coming months, with Brent and WTI projected to reach $74 and $70, respectively, by June 2025 [44][50]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The US is projected to drive a significant portion of the global oil demand downgrade, with a forecast of 130,000 barrels per day (kb/d) reduction in 2025 due to slower GDP growth [24][29]. - OPEC+ production increases are expected to total 430 kb/d over four months, starting in April 2025, which is anticipated to affect market dynamics [30][31]. Economic Factors - The report highlights that the US GDP growth forecast has been downgraded from 2.4% to 1.7% for 2025, impacting oil demand projections [24][27]. - The overall policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty indices are at high levels, contributing to the cautious outlook on oil demand [14][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that producers should consider hedging against potential medium-term price declines, especially after a short-term price recovery [70][71]. - Refiners are advised to hedge deferred distillate margins due to potential downward pressure on diesel margins from lower tanker freight rates and competition from LNG trucking [71].

17 March 2025 | 2:54AM HKT Alibaba Group (BABA) Addressing key debates on Alibaba Cloud capex targets and outlook; Buy | BABA | 12m Price Target: $160.00 | Price: $141.10 | Upside: 13.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9988.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$156.00 | Price: HK$135.80 | Upside: 14.9% | The key investor focuses/debates following Alibaba's three-year capex target uplift and share price outperformance (+66%YTD vs. HSTECH +35%) have centered around the potential returns of its anticipated spending, and cap ...

(https://publishing.gs.com) Market Insights | Markets | Interest Rates Singapore Trip Notes – March 2025 | GS EM Marketstrats We were in Singapore seeing macro and corporate clients last week, with below key takeaways: Waning US exceptionalism view dominates, and clients see DXY hard to go higher. A combination of heightened policy uncertainty concern, expensive valuations in US asset, brighter stories elsewhere (Europe and China), clients agree that there is demand to diversify away from US assets. Many cl ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for US equities, with a lowered year-end 2025 S&P 500 index target from 6500 to 6200, reflecting a downgrade in US growth forecasts [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift from US exceptionalism to a more favorable outlook for European and emerging market equities, driven by a significant valuation gap and expected growth from increased European defense spending [2][4]. - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 1.7% from 2.4%, influenced by an anticipated rise in the average US tariff rate by 10 percentage points [1][5]. - European equities are expected to outperform, with revised EPS growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 increased to 4%, 6%, and 6% respectively [2][4]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The average US tariff rate is projected to rise by 10 percentage points this year, significantly impacting GDP growth forecasts [1][5]. - The S&P 500 has entered correction territory, reflecting market adjustments to lower growth expectations [1][2]. European Economic Outlook - European equities are anticipated to continue their strong performance due to a large valuation gap compared to US equities and increased defense spending [2][4]. - The report notes positive developments in fiscal policy from the EU Council and Germany, supporting the outlook for European markets [2][4]. Emerging Markets - The report suggests that both China and broader emerging market equities have shown relative strength this year, with potential for further gains [2][4].