Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cambricon with a 12-month target price of Rmb1,223, implying an upside of 73.8% from the current price of Rmb703.60 [9][11]. Core Insights - Cambricon announced a private placement aiming to raise no more than Rmb4,980 million (US$685 million) to develop AI chips and software for generative AI, with 58% of the funding allocated to AI chips, 32% to software, and 10% for working capital [1]. - The company's R&D spending is projected to increase significantly, with a 52% CAGR expected from 2025 to 2030, reaching Rmb17 billion (US$2.4 billion) by 2030 [1]. - Cambricon's AI chips are designed for various applications, including training foundation models and supporting multimodal AI tasks across multiple industries such as internet, cloud computing, and healthcare [2]. Summary by Sections AI Chips Development - The company plans to develop multiple types of AI chips, including those for training foundation models and large language model inferencing, highlighting its experience in commercializing AI chips [2]. - Current AI chips support mainstream open-source AI models, enabling tasks in vision, audio, and natural language processing [2]. Software Platform for Generative AI - Cambricon aims to create a software platform that enhances the adaptability and user experience of its AI chips, focusing on software-hardware co-optimization [3][7]. - The platform will include a flexible coding system, training, and inferencing capabilities, and will be compatible with major AI programming frameworks like TensorFlow and PyTorch [3][7]. Financial Projections and Dividends - The private placement is expected to result in no more than a 5% increase in shares, while net income is projected to grow at a 77% CAGR from 2025 to 2030 [8]. - Cambricon has outlined a cash dividend plan for 2025-2027, with payout ratios increasing from 20% to 80% as the company matures and capital expenditures change [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings with a target price (TP) of US$152, unchanged despite recent developments [2][10][12]. Core Insights - The suspension of Temu's full-entrusted model for US shipments is more drastic than previously anticipated, leading to a significant reduction in US GMV estimates [2][19]. - The shift towards local merchants and warehouses is expected to accelerate, particularly in Europe, as Temu adapts to new tariff regulations [2][19]. - The current valuation of PDD at 10X 2025E P/E does not reflect the potential of Temu's global business, indicating a potential undervaluation [2][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for PDD have been revised downwards by 10% for 2025E, 21% for 2026E, and 22% for 2027E due to the reduction in Temu's GMV forecasts [19]. - The projected global GMV for Temu is now US$50 billion, US$53 billion, and US$70 billion for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E respectively, compared to previous estimates of US$63 billion, US$84 billion, and US$106 billion [19]. - PDD's overall non-GAAP EBIT changes are minimal, with EPS adjustments ranging from -2% to 1% for 2025E-2027E [19]. Market Dynamics - Temu's online advertising expenditure in the US has been significantly reduced since April, which is expected to positively impact loss margins [2]. - The report notes a decline in Temu app downloads, which have fallen out of the top 50 rankings after consistently being in the top 10 for two years [2]. - The report highlights geopolitical uncertainties affecting investor focus, particularly regarding European de-minimis policies and potential ADR delisting risks [19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modestly reduced oil price forecast due to higher OPEC supply assumptions, with Brent/WTI averaging $60/56 in the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026 [8][12][13] Core Insights - OPEC8+ countries decided to increase production by 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) month-over-month for June, reflecting low inventories and a strategic shift to support internal cohesion and discipline US shale supply [1][4] - The expected production increase for July has been adjusted to 0.41 million barrels per day (mb/d) from a previous estimate of 0.14 mb/d, driven by recent economic data suggesting resilient demand [5][8] - The oil price forecast has been nudged down by $2-3, with the new average prices reflecting adjustments in supply expectations and economic activity [8][12] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Decisions - The decision to raise production aligns with a broader strategy to manage compliance among member countries and address low oil inventories [4][5] - The report highlights that the production increase is likely to continue if compliance improves among lagging countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan [3][4] Economic Activity and Demand - Recent US economic data, including payroll reports and ISM readings, indicate solid momentum, suggesting that a slowdown in demand may not be imminent [5][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring compliance and economic indicators to assess future production levels and price forecasts [7][8] Price Forecast Adjustments - The updated oil price forecast reflects a downward adjustment due to increased supply expectations, with Brent and WTI prices expected to average lower than previously forecasted [8][12] - The report maintains that high spare capacity and recession risks skew the risks to oil prices to the downside despite tight spot fundamentals [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The China Export Tracker focuses on the dynamics of China exports to the US amid tariff escalations, analyzing data from 48 corporates representing nearly 70% of China export value to the US [2][41] - Export orders from the US to Chinese corporates have stabilized at 92% of pre-tariff levels as of April 28, 2025, showing a slight recovery from 90% in mid-April [3][12] - The report indicates that nearly 20% of corporates have seen improvements in exports to non-US regions, particularly in sectors like pet treats and construction machinery [4] - China shipments and production are in substantial decline, with 35% of US orders being filled from China and 57% from ex-China facilities [11][17] - Corporates report that 40% of their products are experiencing high impacts on shipments to the US, with a significant portion seeing declines of over 50% [12][18] Summary by Sections Export Orders and Shipments - Export orders from the US have largely remained unchanged, with a slight increase noted [3] - Shipments from China are significantly impacted, with many corporates reporting a decline in production and shipments [5][12] Supply Chain Adjustments - Corporates are adjusting supply chains, with many utilizing ex-China production facilities to fulfill US orders [11][13] - Nearly half of the corporates have reported stable or increasing inventory levels in the US, providing a buffer against supply chain disruptions [21][23] Pricing Discussions - Approximately 60% of corporates are engaged in pricing negotiations, with expectations that end users will absorb most tariff costs [25][29] - There is a consensus that tariffs above 30-40% could become unmanageable for the global supply chain [26][31] Capital Allocation and Expansion Plans - Nearly 60% of corporates have ex-China production facilities, with 63% planning to expand or establish overseas capacity despite tariff uncertainties [32] - Corporates are cautious about capital expansion plans, particularly in Mexico and the US, due to ongoing uncertainties [59][61] Container Shipping and Import Data - US container imports from China showed a year-on-year increase of 9% in Q1 2025, but projections indicate a decline of 15% in Q2 and 27% in Q3 2025 [33][35] - Container shipping data has not yet reflected the anticipated decline, with current volumes still showing positive growth [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the Chinese economy, forecasting real GDP growth at 4.0% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, down from previous estimates of 4.5% and 4.0% respectively [2][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for China has shifted from optimism in Q1 to pessimism due to US tariff increases, with recent manufacturing PMI declines indicating potential economic weakness [2][3]. - The Chinese government is adopting a "reactive" approach to economic management, focusing on conservative and selective policy stimulus rather than aggressive fiscal spending [2][17]. - The report highlights four key implications of tariff-related issues for the Chinese economy, including the need for significant policy easing only in response to notable macroeconomic deterioration, the deflationary impact of US tariffs, challenges in strengthening trade ties with other countries, and the necessity for measures to bolster domestic demand and consumption [2][32][33]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The narrative of the Chinese macro economy has changed significantly, with Q1 benefiting from AI-induced optimism and strong exports, but recent tariff increases have led to a decline in market sentiment and manufacturing PMIs [3][9]. - The report notes that the US tariffs are expected to have a deflationary effect on China, with CPI and PPI inflation forecasts of 0% and -1.6% for 2025, respectively [32]. Policy Response - The April Politburo meeting indicated a lack of significant new stimulus measures, emphasizing employment stabilization over aggressive growth initiatives [9][18]. - Policymakers are increasingly conservative in utilizing fiscal space, focusing on targeted measures such as consumer loans and administrative adjustments rather than broad fiscal transfers [18][22]. Trade Relations - The report discusses the complexities of US-China tariff negotiations, highlighting significant differences in negotiation styles and a lack of trust, making a near-term deal difficult [13][16]. - It also notes that while the Chinese government aims to strengthen trade ties with other economies, achieving this will be challenging due to existing trade imbalances and competitive pressures [33][38]. Domestic Economic Shifts - Rising trade tensions are likely to push China towards a more consumption-driven economy, with a focus on domestic demand rather than external markets [38]. - The report suggests that reforms aimed at boosting local consumption and enhancing the social safety net may gain political support in light of ongoing economic challenges [38].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [3][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is setting a higher bar for rate cuts compared to the 2019 trade war, with a focus on needing compelling evidence of economic slowdown before acting [5][30]. - The report forecasts three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts in July, September, and October, reflecting a dovish stance relative to market pricing due to the higher risk of recession from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty [21][31]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a GDP growth of just 0.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis for the year, with an expected rise in the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4.7% as labor demand falls [21][25]. - The economic data has shown a rapid deterioration in survey data, while hard data has yet to reflect significant weakness, indicating a lag in the impact of economic shocks [7][11]. FOMC Actions - The FOMC is likely to maintain the current target range for the funds rate and is not expected to make significant changes to balance sheet policy following the decision to slow the pace of Treasury runoff [5][30]. - Fed officials are cautious and will require more evidence from hard data, such as labor market indicators, before considering rate cuts [6][26]. Business Confidence - Business confidence has sharply declined in recent months, leading companies to pull back on capital spending plans, which could further impact economic growth [11][21]. - The report highlights that a decline in job openings or capital goods orders could provide more concrete evidence of economic caution among companies [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both JD and Meituan, indicating favorable risk-reward scenarios for investors [1][10][13]. Core Insights - JD's food delivery service has ramped up quickly, achieving 10 million daily orders within two months, which is significant compared to Meituan's approximately 65 million daily orders [1][12]. - The report outlines three potential scenarios for JD's future in the food delivery market, ranging from losing scale due to subsidy pullbacks to becoming the second-largest player [1][9][18]. - Meituan is expected to maintain its leadership in food delivery due to its extensive merchant coverage and established user base [10][11]. Summary by Sections JD's Market Entry and Performance - JD's food delivery service has seen rapid growth, doubling its daily orders from 5 million to 10 million in a short period [12][28]. - The company has implemented a Rmb10 billion subsidy program to attract users and has a zero-commission policy for new merchants [28][29]. - JD's long-term commitment to food delivery is supported by strategic investments and management changes [2][10]. Competitive Landscape - The food delivery market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with Meituan and Ele.me responding to JD's entry with their own competitive strategies [2][29]. - Meituan's unique competitive advantages include its large local service merchant network and a strong in-house delivery system [10][11]. - The report anticipates that the competitive dynamics will evolve as JD and Alibaba continue to invest in their food delivery operations [7][10]. Financial Projections and Valuations - The report projects significant upside potential for both JD and Meituan, with target price increases of 56% for Meituan and 53% for JD over the next 12 months [1][26]. - JD's potential EBIT impact varies across scenarios, with estimates ranging from Rmb7 billion to Rmb14 billion depending on market performance [8][9][18]. - Meituan's food delivery is valued at HK$83 per share, based on projected daily orders and EBIT per order [11][60]. Scenario Analysis - Scenario 1 suggests JD could shrink to below 5 million daily orders if subsidies are removed, leading to a significant EBIT impact [9][15]. - Scenario 2 maintains JD's order volume at 8-12 million per day, resulting in a moderate EBIT drag [9][17]. - Scenario 3 envisions JD becoming the second-largest player with daily orders reaching approximately 20 million, significantly impacting both JD and Meituan's EBIT [8][19]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report highlights the ongoing competition and strategic responses from Meituan and Ele.me, indicating a need for continuous adaptation in the market [2][29]. - JD's entry into food delivery is expected to shift the competitive landscape, with implications for pricing and market share among the key players [1][7][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a deeper pullback in subscription-based volume and visitor traffic in export-centric cities, with subscription-based secondary sales in approximately 15 monitored cities falling by 7% week-over-week (wow) and 9% in export-reliant cities [1] - Primary markets with the highest export exposure underperformed peers, showing an improvement of only 11% wow compared to 19% and 15% for cities with the least exposure and other peers respectively [1] - Secondary visitor traffic in export-centric cities dropped sharply by 13% wow, indicating a significant decline in market activity [2] Summary by Sections Sales Volume - New homes sales volume increased by 6% wow but decreased by 11% year-over-year (yoy), with tier-1 and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) cities outperforming [5] - Secondary transactions averaged an increase of 11% wow and 4% yoy, despite negative price appreciation expectations from agents and homeowners [5] - Year-to-date (YTD) primary gross floor area (GFA) sold averaged a 1% yoy increase but was down 31% and 12% compared to 2023 and 2022 levels respectively [6] Market Trends - Property sales in around 75 cities suggest that top-100 developers' presales are likely to decline by 4% yoy in April, compared to an 11% decline in March [7] - The GSPC tracker indicates a high-single-digit to teen-level yoy decline in completions for April 2025, with a projected 3% yoy increase for FY25E [7] - New starts are expected to record a high-teens level yoy decline in April, based on land sales trends and cement shipment ratios [7] Visitor Traffic and Sentiment - The latest new home search demand heat index edged up by 0.2% wow, remaining below the levels seen in 1Q25 and post-September 2024 easing [18] - Secondary listing supply in export-reliant cities decreased by 3% wow, while visitor traffic fell by 13% wow, indicating a decline in market engagement [20] Inventory and Valuation - Inventory levels remained flattish week-over-week and decreased by 2.6% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.3 [50] - The report notes that offshore developers are trading at an average 35% discount to end-2025E NAV, while onshore developers are at a 19% discount [63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a structurally bullish view on gold, projecting a base case price of $3,700 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026 [17]. Core Insights - The gold-silver price ratio has broken out of its historical range of 45-80 since 2022, with expectations that silver will not catch up to gold due to increased central bank demand for gold [1][16]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, leading to a structural decoupling of gold and silver prices, with gold being favored over silver due to its scarcity and suitability for reserve management [2][14]. - Despite a boom in China's solar industry supporting silver demand, it has not been sufficient to close the performance gap with gold, especially as solar production slows and recession risks rise [16]. Summary by Sections Gold-Silver Price Ratio - The gold-silver price ratio has persistently traded above the historical range since 2022, driven by structural changes in demand [1][2]. - Central banks' gold purchases have increased fivefold since the freezing of Russian reserves, contributing to the decoupling of gold and silver prices [9][12]. Demand Dynamics - Silver's investment flows are influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty and real rates, but its industrial exposure can lead to underperformance during economic downturns [5][6]. - The report indicates that while silver may benefit from renewed investor interest, it is unlikely to match gold's trajectory due to the lack of central bank support [16][20]. Structural Factors - Gold's physical properties make it more suitable for reserve management compared to silver, which is more abundant and less valuable [14][15]. - Silver lacks the institutional recognition and economic profile that supports gold, making it less suitable as a reserve asset [13][14]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that gold will continue to outperform silver, with strong central bank demand expected to persist into 2025 [16][19]. - In the event of a recession, gold prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching $3,880 by year-end, while silver may also see some upward movement due to correlated flows [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a defensive tactical stance with an overweight (OW) on bonds and cash, neutral (N) on credit, and an underweight (UW) on equities and commodities for the next three months [4]. Core Insights - Financial markets are currently navigating between the risks of a US recession and the concept of US exceptionalism, leading to a sell-off in US cyclicals compared to defensives and a widening of credit spreads [2][3]. - Recent equity market rallies have been supported by easing global growth concerns and more dovish monetary policy expectations, with technology stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, leading the rebound [3][10]. - The report highlights a significant outflow of approximately $60 billion from US stocks by foreign investors since March 1, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - US existing home sales and Euro area composite PMIs have both come in below expectations, while non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to rise by 140,000 in April, above consensus [1]. - The market has begun to price in higher recession risks, leading to a relative underperformance of US equities compared to non-US equities [2]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic defensive sectors in Europe and taking advantage of resets in cross-asset volatility to add selective overlay hedges [4][15]. - The allocation recommendations include an underweight in equities across various indices, with specific forecasts for the S&P 500 and other major indices indicating potential downside in the short term [15]. Performance Metrics - The report provides performance metrics indicating that US equities, particularly the Nasdaq, have outperformed other indices since April 21, while Asian markets, especially China, have lagged [3][10]. - The correlation between US and non-US equities has started to decline, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [3][9]. Valuation and Risk Premia - The report includes a cross-asset valuation table showing current valuations and their percentiles relative to the past ten years, indicating that US equities are at a 71% expensiveness percentile [59]. - The current dividend yield for the S&P 500 is 1.5%, which is at the 16th percentile compared to the last ten years, suggesting a relatively low yield environment [62]. Fund Flows and Positioning - The report notes significant fund flows, with a focus on the cumulative flows across various asset classes, indicating a preference for safe assets over risky ones in recent weeks [74][78]. - The positioning data shows net long positions in equities and commodities, reflecting investor sentiment and market expectations [86][88].