Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" as it is expected to expand its market share and benefit from the premium pricing of N-type photovoltaic films, leading to improved profit margins [6]. Core Views - The company is projected to see a 10%-20% year-on-year increase in photovoltaic film shipments, with an estimated shipment of approximately 700 million square meters in Q4 2024, contributing to a total of 2.8 billion square meters for the year [2][3]. - The exit of industry capacity is expected to accelerate after Q4 2024, continuing into 2025, which may enhance the company's market share from 50%-60% in 2024 [2]. - POE resin prices are anticipated to stabilize in 2025 due to changes in pricing strategies and limited profit margins for domestic manufacturers [3]. - The company is expanding its overseas photovoltaic film production capacity, with plans to increase capacity in Thailand and Vietnam, potentially raising the overseas production share from 10% to 20% [4]. - Electronic film materials are expected to maintain rapid shipment growth and improved profit margins, driven by higher demand from AI servers and smart automotive applications [4]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Film Shipments - The company expects a 10%-20% increase in photovoltaic film shipments in 2025, driven by a 10%-15% growth in photovoltaic demand and accelerated capacity exit [2]. Industry Capacity Exit - The exit of industry capacity is expected to accelerate post-Q4 2024, with evidence from competitors shutting down production and the company's stable accounts receivable [2]. POE Resin Pricing - POE resin prices are projected to stabilize in 2025, influenced by changes in pricing strategies and the production cost alignment between POE and EVA resins [3]. Overseas Production Capacity - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with plans for 250 million square meters in Vietnam and Thailand, increasing the overseas share of total capacity [4]. Electronic Film Materials - The company anticipates continued rapid growth in electronic film shipments, with a projected 30% year-on-year increase, supported by demand from AI and automotive sectors [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), indicating a positive outlook based on several driving factors in early 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights multiple catalysts for the company in the first two months of 2025, including strong AI capital expenditure guidance from clients and the successful rollout of 1.6T products, which are expected to continue throughout the year [1]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 14x expected P/E ratio for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to global peers trading at a 30% to 50% premium [1]. - Concerns regarding tariff risks, new technologies (CPO), and competition from active electrical cables (AEC) are noted, but the report suggests that these risks are already factored into the recent stock price correction [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhongji Xuchuang is the largest optical module supplier in China's data communication market, benefiting from its leading position in the 800G/1.6T optical module market, which is crucial for AI and data center development [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 24.475 billion for 2024 and RMB 37.430 billion for 2025, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [12]. - The report anticipates a net income of RMB 10.352 billion for 2025, with an EPS of RMB 9.23, indicating strong profitability [12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for optical modules driven by AI applications, with a strong execution capability in capacity expansion and new product development [8]. - The report emphasizes that the company maintains a competitive edge through its established supply chain and relationships with major cloud service providers [8]. Price Target - The 12-month price target for Zhongji Xuchuang is set at RMB 240, representing an upside potential of 87% from the current price of RMB 128.35 [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Eyebright (688050.SS) with a 12-month price target of RMB 133, indicating an upside potential of 35.8% from the current price of RMB 97.96 [9][10]. Core Insights - Eyebright is positioned to capture market share in the PIOL segment with its newly launched product "Loong Crystal," which is expected to compete directly with STAAR Surgical's ICL products. The company anticipates receiving final approval from the National Medical Products Administration soon, raising the product's development success rate from 60% to 95% [1][5]. - The overall clinical efficacy and patient experience of "Loong Crystal" are comparable to leading ICL products, benefiting from good biocompatibility and a unique biconcave structure that reduces friction around the lens [2][4]. - The Chinese refractive surgery market is estimated to reach 1.3 million procedures in 2023, with PIOL penetration at approximately 8.5%. STAAR Surgical currently dominates this market with a 95% share, generating revenue of USD 186 million from China in 2023. Eyebright is expected to gradually capture market share from STAAR in both public and private hospitals [5][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecasts for Eyebright for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted by 0.0%, -0.2%, +0.2%, and +0.4% respectively, reflecting the higher success rate of the PIOL product, although this is offset by slower growth in the OK lens segment in 2025 [1][7]. Market Share Projections - By 2034, Eyebright is projected to capture approximately 14% of the Chinese PIOL market, with expected revenue from "Loong Crystal" adjusted to RMB 30 million in 2025 [5][6]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% in earnings from 2024 to 2034, driven by increased penetration rates and market share gains, supported by demographic trends such as an aging population and product upgrades in cataract surgery [8][9].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US economy experienced unexpected growth in 2024, with Q4 GDP increasing approximately 2.5%, surpassing both the initial forecast of 2% and the consensus estimate of 0.8% [2][4] - Core PCE inflation for Q4 2024 was reported at around 2.8%, which was higher than the forecasted 2.2% and the market expectation of 2.4% [2][11] - The report indicates a strong market reaction to economic data surprises, particularly inflation data, with stock market sensitivity being 2.2 times the normal level and bond market sensitivity at 5.5 times the normal level [2][35] Economic Performance - The report notes that the largest upward revision to growth forecasts was attributed to a surge in immigration, which positively impacted labor force growth and potential GDP [2][4] - The report mentions that the forecasting accuracy for key economic indicators was improved, with a hit rate of 67% for 13 major indicators, slightly above the historical average of 63% [2][16] - Specific indicators such as the unemployment rate and core PCE showed particularly high forecasting accuracy, with hit rates of 100% and 91% respectively [16][22] Market Reactions - The report discusses the heightened sensitivity of the Treasury market to growth surprises, which was about 50% above normal levels in 2024, reflecting concerns about potential recessions and the Fed's data-dependent policy [31][35] - In the equity market, there was a consistent positive response to growth surprises in 2024, indicating a stronger conviction that inflation would remain controlled despite robust growth [33][39] - The report anticipates that as economic conditions normalize, the sensitivity to monthly growth and inflation data may decrease in 2025 [39] Forecasts - The report provides forecasts for real GDP growth, projecting a gradual decline from 2.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.1% by Q2 2025, with consumer expenditures also expected to slow down [41][42] - Inflation forecasts indicate a decrease in both CPI and core CPI, with core PCE expected to stabilize around 2.4% by the end of 2025 [41][42] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.2% by Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the labor market [41][42]

Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a slight slowdown in China's economic growth due to potential increases in U.S. tariffs, with Japan and Australia expected to perform better than last year[2] - Most Asian economies are projected to lower interest rates in 2025, with Japan being a notable exception as it continues its monetary tightening[2] - China's real estate market is not expected to rebound, with a significant decline in housing starts and prices, which have dropped over 60% from peak levels[6][8] Monetary Policy - The report predicts a 40 basis point reduction in China's main policy interest rate, reflecting a shift towards a more consumption-oriented fiscal policy[10] - Japan's CPI is expected to rise by 2.2% in 2025, supporting the likelihood of two interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each[4] - The broad fiscal deficit in China is projected to rise to 13% of GDP in 2025, indicating a more aggressive fiscal stimulus approach[13] Currency and Trade - The Indian Rupee is viewed positively as a high-yield currency, with expectations of gradual economic recovery in India, projected to exceed 6% growth by late 2025[15][14] - Vietnam faces significant risks from potential U.S. tariffs, with a trade surplus of approximately $100 billion with the U.S.[20] - The report suggests that if tariffs are imposed, the Chinese Yuan may depreciate slightly, with a mid-year forecast of 7.50 against the U.S. dollar[19] Regional Growth Dynamics - Growth in Asia is expected to shift towards domestic demand, particularly in China and North Asia, as macroeconomic policies are relaxed[30] - The report highlights that high-income economies like Japan and Australia will see improved growth rates in 2025, while East Asian economies may experience a slowdown[30] - Overall, the report indicates a rotation in growth dynamics, with a focus on domestic consumption and investment in high-income regions[30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry, but it indicates a downward trend in sales and market conditions, suggesting caution in investment decisions. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes at the start of the year, with new home sales down 31% month-on-month and up 72% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales decreased by 28% month-on-month and increased by 37% year-on-year [6][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for boosting domestic demand, with the government aiming to revitalize old urban areas and optimize the use of existing land [1]. - The report notes that the inventory levels remain stable, with a current inventory month of 25.9 months, consistent with the end of 2024 [40]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - New home sales area decreased by 31% month-on-month and increased by 72% year-on-year, with first-tier cities and the Pearl River Delta showing stronger performance [6][19]. - Second-hand home sales area decreased by 28% month-on-month and increased by 37% year-on-year, with expectations of price increases weakening among agents and sellers [32]. Market Indicators - The Central Plains Agent Index remained flat, while the Central Plains Quotation Index decreased by 2 percentage points, indicating a decline in seller confidence [11][34]. - The new home search heat index decreased by 1% month-on-month, reflecting a lower interest in new properties compared to previous periods [13]. Construction and Inventory - The report predicts a 30% year-on-year decline in construction area for December 2024, with an overall annual decline of 13% [45]. - Inventory levels are stable, with a month-on-month change of +0.5% for first-tier cities and -0.7% for second-hand homes, indicating a balanced market [40][42]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the current price-to-book ratio for covered overseas-listed developers is at a low point, with an average discount of 43% to the expected net asset value for 2025 [55]. - Domestic developers are also trading at a discount of 28% to their expected net asset value, suggesting potential undervaluation in the market [55].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology) is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of RMB 61.2, indicating an upside potential of 4.5% from the current price of RMB 58.58 [10][11]. Core Insights - 汇川技术's industrial automation orders in December 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of over 20%, outperforming the previous year's performance, driven by sectors such as electric engineering machinery and consumer electronics [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 21% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and 24% for the entire year, with net profit projected to grow by 20% and 7% respectively [1]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position in the industrial automation sector, with significant growth opportunities in overseas markets and expanding market share in PLC products [7]. Summary by Sections Industrial Automation Orders - 汇川技术 reported a year-on-year increase of over 20% in industrial automation orders for December 2024, compared to approximately 10% in November [1]. - The improvement in orders is attributed to the demand from electric engineering machinery, consumer electronics, and other sectors, contrasting with the declining trends seen in competitors [1][2]. Financial Projections - The revenue for the industrial automation segment is expected to grow by 6% in Q4 2024 and 4% for the entire year, aligning with the order growth rates [4]. - The revenue from the new energy vehicle components segment is projected to increase significantly, with growth rates of 36% and 67% for Q4 and the full year respectively [4]. Competitive Positioning - 汇川技术 holds a leading position in the domestic industrial automation market, with market shares of 18% and 29% for its core products, variable frequency drives and servo systems, respectively [7]. - The company is anticipated to increase its overseas revenue share from 6% in 2023 to 18% by 2030, indicating strong international growth potential [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights that despite efforts by Chinese policymakers to stabilize leverage since 2016, there has been a recent increase in leverage, with the non-financial debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 307% by the end of 2024 [3][29] - The analysis indicates that after significant debt booms, economies typically experience slower growth, lower inflation, and declining interest rates, which are critical features observed in the aftermath of large debt accumulation [13][15][42] Debt Growth and Economic Impact - China's debt growth is notably faster compared to other countries, with historical parallels drawn primarily to Japan, which had a similar speed of debt accumulation during a period when its income level was significantly higher than China's [4][6][34] - The report identifies that economic growth tends to decelerate towards the end of large debt booms, with a median real GDP growth rate approximately 2.5 percentage points lower than the average during the boom [13][40] - Inflation pressures typically decrease in the years following a debt boom, with rates falling by 1-2 percentage points within five years post-boom [13][49] - Central banks are pressured to lower policy interest rates to support economic activity and facilitate debt repayment, with rates declining by around 2 percentage points five years after a debt boom [13][49] Historical Context and Lessons - The report draws on historical data from the IMF Global Debt Database, covering 190 countries from 1950 to 2023, to analyze the relationship between debt and macroeconomic indicators [10][29] - It emphasizes that China's unique economic size and development path make it an outlier in historical debt boom episodes, complicating direct comparisons with other countries [15][34] - The findings suggest that the central government may need to increase borrowing and spending to manage the economic slowdown, reflecting lessons learned from historical debt experiences in other large economies [42][51]

美国关税风险排序 (摘要) 迪安竹 +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 权九勋, CFA +852-2978-0048 | goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 宋欣佳 +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 n 自2018-19年中美贸易战以来，中国占美国进口的份额有所下降。尽管如此，美国 对华贸易逆差仍超过美国对亚太地区（乃至全世界）其他经济体的贸易逆差规 模，我们预计中国将成为美国加征关税的主要目标对象。 n 鉴于现在距离美国当选总统特朗普的就职典礼只有一个多月时间，我们评估了美 国加征关税给中国以外亚太经济体带来的风险及其对亚太地区经济活动的潜在影 响。 n 面对美国关税施压，亚洲经济体可能采取的应对措施包括：1) 采取报复措施（对 于中国这样的大型经济体来说较为可行）；2) 增加购买美国商品，以缓解贸易不 平衡（将能源之类的一些大宗商品采购转向美国可能相对容易）；3) 采取措施放 宽对美国产品的市场准入限制（例如降低进口关税）；4) 调整汇率管理方 ...

1. 对于整个亚洲来说，2024年是具有里程碑意义的一年。日本央行结束了长达八年的 负利率政策，执政的自民党15年来首次在众议院选举中失去多数席位。短暂宣布戒严 的韩国总统目前正面临弹劾，加剧了国内政治僵局。中国截至目前最为严峻的房地产 市场低迷仍在持续，政策制定者时隔14年再提"适度宽松"。印度总理莫迪领导的印 度人民党/全国民主联盟在2024年初的选举中失利，印度储备银行也在进行高层改组。 就东盟国家而言，印尼和越南迎来了新的总统和国家主席，新加坡和泰国则迎来了新 总理。纵观整个区域，通胀已经消退，部分经济体的增长担忧升温，因此除日本央行 之外的许多央行都放松了货币政策。 图表 1: 美国最大的双边贸易逆差源自对华贸易，但与其他亚洲经济体的逆差也在增长 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 资料来源：Haver Analytics, 高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：Haver Analytics, 彭博, 高盛全球投资研究部 3. 对于美国的潜在加征关税，中国似乎仍将首当其冲。我们 ...