摘要 中美贸易摩擦虽再起，但市场已有所准备，资产跌幅或相对较小，且谈 判窗口期尚存，短期宜谨慎，关注政策变化和谈判进展。 美国政府关门风险及地缘政治风险增加推动黄金和有色金属价格创新高， 未来可关注美国政府关门风险、日本政坛变化及全球经济形势和货币政 策的影响。 日本政坛变动短期内可能引发资产价格波动，长期或通过结构性改革提 升经济潜力，投资者需密切关注其对宏观经济和金融市场的潜在影响。 假期消费数据疲软与宏观经济趋弱有关，高估值板块回调明显，顺周期 板块未能有效承接资金，短期宜谨慎，关注政府刺激消费政策。 美股涨幅主要由盈利上修驱动，港股依赖估值提升，A 股盈利基本持平。 意外事件升级增加市场走势判断难度，需关注贸易协议、美联储政策及 高关税的非理性影响。 中美信用周期将走向修复，美国或有过热风险，中国需更多政策对冲。 美国经济增长强劲，科技和复苏交易或受青睐；中国信用周期面临拐点， 投资者可根据宏观背景调整配置。 全球定价有色资源品新周期牛市已开启，受益于全球化供应链调整、新 兴行业需求、地缘政治风险及供应端限制，看好贵金属、基本金属及新 能源或战略性小金属。 Q&A 中金公司 假期动态与节后交易主线 2 ...

行业首选本期更新 中金行业首选 证券研究报告 2025.10.03 A 股和港股行业首选：2025 年 10 月 刘刚，CFA 分析员 张巍瀚 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref：AVH867 kevin.liu@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524010002 SFC CE Ref：BSV497 weihan.zhang@cicc.com.cn 中金行业首选是基于自下而上的选股策略，由行业分析员在其所覆盖的行业中选出最看好的股票分别形 成 A 股和海外中资股两个列表，列表中的个股有望获得较高的行业相对收益。我们会在报告中提供首 选列表，调入调出的理由，对应的行业分析员信息，以及组合中个股的最新表现、目标价、盈利预测、 估值等信息。我们也会在报告首页提供策略组的行业配置观点，从而可以将自上而下的行业配置观点与 自下而上的选股策略相结合。 本期调入行业首选的 A 股共 1 只，为裕同科技。 本期调出行业首选的 A 股共 1 只，为欧派家居。 本期调入行业首选的海外中资股共 1 只，为中国太平。 我们最新的行业首选中共有A股 81 只，海外中资股 5 ...

SAC 执证编号：S0080523070023 SFC CE Ref：BSV154 dong.wei@cicc.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025.09.21 A 股策略 A 股"长期"、"稳进"的四大条件 SAC 执证编号：S0080521070010 SFC CE Ref：BRQ876 kaisong.huang@cicc.com.cn 去年 9 月至今A股自底部阶段震荡上行，当下行情已持续一年左右时间，上证指数累计涨幅超过 40%。 本篇报告中我们系统回顾过去 20 年左右A股持续时间较长的几次上行阶段，典型如 2005-2007 年、 2013-2015 年、2019-2021 年等，分析其行情起因、背景和市场特征，供借鉴参考： 历史几次上涨阶段的行情特征及当下对比 1） 上涨行情概况：三次上涨行情均表现出持续时间较长（2-3 年左右）、整体涨幅明显、增量资金入市 带来成交显著放大的特征。行情在启动起始期均为历史"大底"（2005 年 6 月、2013 年 6 月、2019 年 1 月），投资者对后市预期极度悲观时期；从历史低点到指数层面的震荡上行，形成一定赚钱效应后，市场 波动率逐渐加大，在上涨过 ...

医疗健康 证券研究报告 2025.10.02 中金医药 10 月组合：看好创新药及产业 链，期待商保突破 张琎 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080517040001 SFC CE Ref：BHM689 jin.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 76 84 92 100 108 116 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 沪深300 中金医疗健康 | V：shuimu2026 | 中金医药 | 月组合：看好创新药及产业 | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 链，期待商保突破 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张琎 分析员 | SAC 执证编号：S0080517040001 | V：shuimu2 ...

高盛闭门会-CDMO 市场格局展望，药明康德凯莱英中国 印韩欧盟 摘要 CDMO 行业整体利润率保持较高水平，受益于新兴疗法需求增长和客户 对质量的更高要求。多家公司积极扩大产能，投资新设施以满足未来需 求，预计 2026 年订单流、收入增长和利润率将有所改善，尤其受益于 中国资金复苏和早期项目需求增强。 中国 CDMO 公司在产能扩张和新模式投资方面更为激进，资本支出占销 售额约 22%，而印度公司则采取更谨慎的策略，投资决策与可见市场需 求挂钩，避免盲目扩张，中国投资者对资本支出持更乐观态度。 CDMO 行业的新趋势包括海外扩张、自动化和数字化投资，以及肽类药 物和抗体偶联药物（ADC）的发展。中国企业加速海外设施建设以应对 地缘政治不确定性，三星生物制药已正式运营其 ADC 产能并获得大量订 单。 尽管地缘政治因素的影响有所减弱，但一些客户仍需考虑潜在干扰。技 术实力和执行能力仍然是关键。部分公司优先考虑海外业务，以提供更 大的灵活性。微信科技加快了新加坡设施建设的进度。 印度 CDMO 公司的发展重点包括地缘政治多元化和保持良好的 RFP/ RFQ 势头。订单转化为实际财务数字的速度较慢，但总体势头良 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The rapid development of generative AI is driving an increase in computing power demand, leading to higher chip power consumption, with NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin/Rubin ultra chips potentially exceeding 2000W [6] - Current single-phase cooling solutions may struggle to meet the cooling demands of the next-generation Rubin series chips, prompting a shift towards more efficient cooling technologies such as microchannel water cooling plates (MLCP) [6][8] - The microchannel cooling technology offers significant advantages over traditional cooling methods, including lower thermal resistance, larger heat exchange area, and higher flow rates, making it suitable for high heat density scenarios [20][22] Summary by Sections Cooling Technology Overview - Traditional single-phase cooling solutions face limitations in thermal resistance and cooling efficiency, particularly for high power demands of 1500-2000W [8][21] - Microchannel cooling technology integrates cooling components to reduce thermal resistance and improve heat transfer efficiency, with flow channels designed at the micron level [19][22] Market Dynamics - The microchannel cooling market is characterized by three main types of companies: startups specializing in microchannel technology, traditional cooling solution providers, and companies focused on cover plates [26][28] - The transition to microchannel cooling may create opportunities for domestic suppliers, especially if existing suppliers cannot meet the new product iteration pace or quality requirements [30] Challenges and Opportunities - The manufacturing complexity of microchannel cooling plates requires advanced production techniques, which may increase costs by 3-5 times compared to existing cooling solutions [36] - The report highlights potential risks, including slower-than-expected capital expenditure in computing power and competition from alternative cooling technologies [38]

September 25, 2025 10:29 AM GMT Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co | Asia Pacific Takeaway from MS SSE and C- Suite Connections Meeting Early China 2026 outlook: China's 2025 equipment upgrade programs had begun implementation by July. Given possibly larger funding scale vs the 2025 round, slightly higher % of central gov't support, and tailwinds maybe lasting till 2026, it should support a sustainable industry recovery for 2H25 and 2026. This also aligns with UIH's recent tender momentum, per management ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and gold, with expectations for copper prices to potentially break through $11,000 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][15]. Core Insights - The current economic environment suggests limited upside for liquidity-driven asset price increases, but demand-side expectations remain cautiously optimistic [1][3]. - Gold and copper have performed well recently, with gold prices around $3,600 per ounce and copper prices nearing $10,000 per ton, benefiting from liquidity expectations and speculative positions [4][6]. - The report highlights the long-term value of gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, despite short-term risks of liquidity premium corrections [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Recent performance of the non-ferrous metals market has been positive, driven by macro liquidity and fundamental improvements [3]. - Different commodities have shown varied performance due to their fundamental conditions, with oil and iron ore facing supply excess, while gold and copper are more closely linked to financial indicators [5]. Federal Reserve Impact - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is expected to positively impact gold and copper prices, although profit-taking risks may arise post-cut [6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply growth is expected to be low, with significant shortages anticipated by 2026, while electrolytic aluminum maintains high profitability due to slow overseas capacity release [2][16]. - Demand for copper has been supported by increased investment in power grid projects and a strong outlook in the renewable energy sector, despite some weakness in traditional demand [10][11]. Future Price Expectations - The report forecasts that copper prices will remain in a narrow range of $9,500 to $10,000 per ton in the second half of 2025, with potential upward pressure from improved liquidity and demand [9]. - The electrolytic aluminum price is projected to be around $2,750 per ton in the fourth quarter, supported by supply constraints [16]. Speculative Interest and Inventory Levels - Current speculative interest in the non-ferrous metals market, particularly copper, has decreased compared to earlier in the year, with inventory levels remaining manageable [11].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies such as NAURA, AMEC, JCET, TCL Tech, USI, Inovance, Ningbo Tuopu, and a "Sell" rating for Silan Micro [4][36]. Core Insights - The Chinese tech supply chain is optimistic about AI-driven demand and is actively expanding into AI-related businesses [1][2]. - Adoption of Level 2+ Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) is increasing, with significant growth in the electric vehicle (EV) Silicon Carbide (SiC) platform [1][2]. - Localisation of semiconductor manufacturing is accelerating, particularly in automotive and data center applications [2][4]. Summary by Sections AI Infrastructure - Companies like Joulwatt and Han's Laser expect to benefit from AI demand, with Joulwatt projecting a high double-digit growth in AI-related analog chips [2][15]. - Han's Laser anticipates continued growth in PCB equipment due to AI demand [18]. Edge AI - ADAS System on Chip (SoC) makers foresee rapid growth in autonomous driving adoption, with some companies achieving design wins of over 500 TOPS [2][12]. - Wearable technology companies like USI and Bestechnic expect increased demand for high-performance chips [2]. Semiconductor Localisation - The report highlights expectations for increased market share in 2026 for products like ADAS SoC and high-end CMOS Image Sensors (CIS) [2][4]. Humanoid Robotics - Companies such as PUDU, PaXini, and KEPLER are developing humanoid robots, with varying progress in commercialization and technology [3][20][21][22]. - PUDU leads in service robots, while PaXini focuses on tactile sensors and dataset collection [20][21]. Stock Preferences - The report identifies top picks in the semiconductor sector, including NAURA and AMEC, and highlights companies in the industrial space such as Inovance and Sanhua [4][36].

09 Sep 2025 18:56:12 ET │ 25 pages A c t i o n | China Networking Sector Thoughts Over Debate: Story Has Just Begun; Buy Innolight/Eoptolink CITI'S TAKE We maintain a constructive view on sector supported by 1) optimistic outlook for ASIC growth from Broadcom, 2) positive Meta/OpenAI's L-T capex outlook, Oracle's significant datacenter build-out plan/strong RPO contract backlog, which all point toward better demand visibility beyond 2026, and 3) scale-up/OCS TAM for optics, and we expect potential LPO adopt ...