宏观经济研究 2025.11.27 宏观探市 股市长牛之中国道路：向新而生 于文博 分析员 张峻栋 分析员 张文朗 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523120009 wenbo.yu@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080522110001 SFC CE Ref：BRY570 jundong.zhang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080520080009 SFC CE Ref：BFE988 wenlang.zhang@cicc.com.cn 在本系列前两篇（《股市长牛之美国经验：呵护成长性》，《金融周期底部的"结构性"行情：向外而 生》），我们分别复盘了美国股市长牛和日本股市"结构性"行情背后资产端和资金端两方面的因素， 本报告作为系列的最终篇，我们分析当下中国股市资产端和资金端的有利因素。 去年"924"以来，A股与经济基本面有所分化，未来A股上涨的驱动力何在？从发达国家的历史经验 可知，在经济转型升级、增速中枢下移的过程中，稳定的盈利增速和抬升的估值中枢仍然可以保持股 市长牛。 从更大的视角看，股市长牛需要资产端和资金端因素的共同作用，资产端包括成长性，高质量出海和 ...

花旗闭门会-中国 ai 和机器人供应链调研，PCBCCL 液冷 看好公司 20251126 摘要 资金从高波动性人工智能股票转向低波动性股票，原因是估值过高以及 对超大规模和人形机器人商业化的担忧，但渠道调查显示，人工智能推 理业务在 2026 年将保持增长势头。 中国人工智能供应链（如 PCB、CCL 液体冷却和电源供应）与韩国、日 本相比仍处于较低层次，但中国供应商的市场份额正在扩大，并积极投 资扩大产能。 电子玩具和电源领域的人工智能相关业务表现突出，例如 88,017 公司 将于 2026 年进入 Optimus 供应链，为投资者提供了机会。 汉森数控公司看到来自中国 AI PCB 机械设备的需求强劲，预计今年人 工智能将占其收入的 30%，该公司正在开发超快激光钻孔设备，并得到 客户的积极反馈。 多家协作机器人公司预计 2026 年业务将实现增长，特斯拉也在加强配 件供应链建设并提升产能，人形机器人零部件供应商将显著受益。 我们在深圳和上海访问了 11 家公司，主要涉及人工智能基础设施领域。我们 与多家公司的高管会面，并参观了人工智能推理系统的展厅。调查显示，全球 股票市场正在将资金从高波动性的人工 ...

Flash | 16 Nov 2025 18:23:15 ET │ 11 pages Beijing Roborock (688169.SS) What's New from 2025 Citi China Conference: Turnaround Pressure in China Persists CITI'S TAKE Operating color from other biz — Wet-and-dry vacuum: Per mgt, the market share of its wet-dry vacuum ranked no. 2 in China. Considering its ongoing subsidies to Buy | Price (14 Nov 25 15:00) | Rmb163.420 | | --- | --- | | Target price | Rmb241.500 | | Expected share price return | 47.8% | | Expected dividend yield | 0.5% | | Expected total retu ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several banks, including ICBC-H, CCB-H, and BOC-H, based on their above-peer dividend yield and attractive valuations [11]. Core Insights - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to diverge between large banks and regional banks, with regional banks likely to perform better due to higher risk appetite and benefits from time-deposit rate cuts [2]. - Policy-financing instruments are anticipated to support loan growth into 1Q26E, potentially driving new loans of RMB2.5 trillion to RMB5 trillion [3]. - Overall asset quality remains stable, but there is increasing pressure on developer loans and non-mortgage retail loans, with manageable credit risk in mortgage loans [4][7]. - Fee income is improving due to strong agency and custodian fees, although a potential fee rate cut in mutual funds could impact future income [8]. - Big banks maintain flattish earnings growth guidance for 2025E, while regional banks like BOCD and BONJ expect around 5% to 8% earnings growth [9][10]. Summary by Sections Net Interest Margin (NIM) - NIM pressure is expected to moderate into 4Q25E, with large banks anticipating continued year-on-year compression in 2026E [2]. Loan Growth - The distribution of RMB500 billion in policy-financing instruments is expected to enhance loan growth, particularly for banks with higher exposure to infrastructure [3]. Asset Quality - Asset quality is stable overall, but there are rising pressures in developer loans and non-mortgage retail loans, with manageable risks in mortgage loans [4][7]. Fee Income - Fee income has improved, driven by strong performance in asset management, though future fee income may be affected by rate cuts [8]. Earnings Growth - Big banks expect flattish earnings growth in 2025E, while regional banks forecast modest growth, with specific banks like PAB expecting a return to positive year-on-year growth in 2026E [9][10]. Valuation and Equity Raising - The market is focused on potential equity raising, particularly for regional banks trading below 1x book value, which could open financing opportunities for others [10].

Flash | 16 Nov 2025 15:34:41 ET │ 10 pages CMOC (3993.HK) What's New from Citi 2025 China Conference: KFM Phase 2 in Operation in 1H27E CITI'S TAKE We hosted meetings for CMOC on Nov 13th at our China Conference in Shanghai. Ms. Xinyi Liu, IR Manager, and Ms. Anna Zhu, IR Manager, attended the meeting. Below are our key takeaways. 3Q25 result – The higher net profit QoQ in 3Q25 and better than market expectation profit is mainly driven by lower effective tax rate, some realized cobalt sales volume, and stro ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Horizon Robotics is "Buy" with a high risk designation [7]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics expects significant growth in shipments for 2026, projecting high-end shipments between 300,000 to 500,000 units, mid-end shipments around 3 million units, and low-end shipments approximately 2 million units. Key contributors to high-end shipments are anticipated to be Chery and Chang'an, accounting for 50% of the total [1][2]. - The company maintains its guidance to ship 4 million units of automotive-grade processing hardware in 2025, with mid-to-high end products making up 50% of this total [2]. - Horizon Robotics has secured design wins for its high-end ADAS solution from Chery and Chang'an, with mass production of the first models expected in the second half of 2025 [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) for various products is detailed as follows: HSD (J6P) at US$700, HSD (dual J6M) at US$400, mid-end ADAS at US$90-100, and low-end ADAS at US$20-30 [4]. - The gross margin for the J6P chip is around 50%, while the software component has a gross margin close to 100% [5]. - Horizon Robotics has established collaborations with overseas tier-1 suppliers such as Bosch, Continental, and Denso to enhance its competitiveness in international markets [5]. - The company aims to increase its market share with BYD's God's Eye C solution in 2026 and plans to explore additional solutions [9]. - Horizon Robotics believes its HSD offers a competitive edge over Huawei's ADAS solution due to its high value for money, making it suitable for mass-market models [10]. - The deployment of HSD is expected to facilitate the development of Robotaxi systems, with a partnership announced with Hello Inc. in September 2025 [11]. - The valuation of Horizon Robotics is based on projected strong growth in the ADAS market from 2025 to 2030, with a target price set at HK$12.30, reflecting a potential return of 49.1% [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb51.40, implying a potential downside of 21.7% from the current price of Rmb65.610 [6][8]. Core Insights - The lithium output for Huayou Cobalt is projected to increase from 35kt in the first nine months of 2025 to 60-80kt in 2026 due to the ramp-up of the lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe. The comprehensive production cost for lithium is currently less than Rmb70k/t LCE and is expected to decrease by Rmb10k/t LCE post ramp-up [2][4]. - Nickel intermediate output is not expected to see significant year-over-year growth in 2026, as both Huayue and Huafei projects have achieved over 100% capacity utilization. The Pomalaa project is anticipated to commence operations by the end of 2026 [3]. - Cobalt output primarily comes from MHP projects in Indonesia, with expectations of strong cobalt prices due to quota policies in the DRC, although increased output from Indonesian projects may exert long-term price pressure [4]. - NCM cathode sales volume reached approximately 70kt in the first nine months of 2025, representing an 80% year-over-year increase, with expectations to reach around 100kt in 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Lithium - Lithium output is expected to rise significantly in 2026 due to the lithium sulfate project ramp-up, with production costs projected to decrease [2]. Nickel - Nickel output is stable with no significant increase expected in 2026, and the Pomalaa project is set to begin operations by year-end 2026 [3]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to policy impacts, but increased output from Indonesia may create long-term price pressures [4]. Cathode - NCM cathode sales are on a strong upward trajectory, with significant growth expected in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luxshare Precision Industry is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb78.00, indicating an expected share price return of 38.0% and an expected total return of 38.6% [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights multiple drivers fueling future growth for Luxshare, including strong performance in the communication and vehicle businesses, solid key customer relationships, and limited impact from memory price fluctuations [1][9]. - The communication business is expected to maintain a high growth target for 2026, with steady domestic growth and rapid overseas expansion anticipated [2]. - The vehicle business, particularly the Leoni segment, is outperforming expectations, with profitability targets likely to be achieved ahead of schedule [3]. - The wearable devices segment is projected to perform positively in 2026, while smartphone shipments are expected to remain stable with improved product mix and average selling price [4]. - The Wingtech business is focusing on operational efficiency and profitability rather than volume growth [5]. Summary by Sections Communication Business - The communication business is set for high growth in 2026, with domestic growth steady and overseas projects expected to break through in the coming quarters [2]. - Luxshare is a leader in electrical interconnect solutions, particularly in 448G connectivity, which secures strategic cooperation with upstream suppliers [2]. Vehicle Business - The Leoni business is performing better than expected, with the potential to exceed breakeven targets this year and achieve prior profit targets a year ahead [3]. - The focus for the first three years will be on operational improvement and profitability, leveraging Leoni's global exposure for North American expansion [3]. Key Customer Business - Luxshare is optimistic about the wearable devices market for 2026, including smartwatches and TWS buds, while smartphone shipments are expected to remain similar to 2025 but with an improved product mix and average selling price [4]. Wingtech Business - The priority for the Wingtech business is to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, with less emphasis on volume or market share [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangxi Copper is "Buy" with a target price of HK$27.90, indicating an expected share price decline of 12.2% from the current price of HK$31.76 [6]. Core Insights - The long-term treatment charge and refining charge (LT TC/RC) for copper concentrate is expected to be lower year-on-year in 2026, reflecting a tight supply situation as the LT TC/RC covers approximately 80% of total purchased overseas copper concentrate in 2025, down from 90% in previous years [1][2]. - The company plans to avoid large-scale maintenance work for copper smelting capacity until the LT TC/RC price for the next year is determined, with an anticipated increase in the percentage of spot TC/RC in the fourth quarter of 2025 if the LT TC/RC price remains low [3]. - Management believes that the impact of anti-involution on the copper smelting industry will primarily affect new capacity rather than existing capacity, as copper demand is expected to continue increasing, thus limiting the impact on copper prices [4]. - The copper foil business is projected to incur a net loss in 2025, but strong orders for lithium battery copper foil since September 2025 are expected to improve profitability in 2026, despite processing fees not significantly increasing [5]. Summary by Sections Valuation - Jiangxi Copper's H-shares are valued at HK$27.90 based on a combination of discounted cash flow (DCF) and price-to-book (P/B) fair values, with a DCF valuation yielding an NPV-per-share of HK$32.90 and a P/B valuation yielding HK$22.90 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kingnet is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb31, indicating an expected share price return of 47.1% and a total expected return of 48.5% [3][8]. Core Insights - Kingnet's monetization potential through the 996 Game Center is significant, with a current daily active user (DAU) count of 450K and a target of 500K DAU by year-end. The company plans to diversify revenue streams through partnerships with larger publishers and new monetization methods such as live-streaming and cloud gaming services [2][3]. - The company is actively pursuing AI initiatives, with the EVE tool set to launch its second testing phase soon, and the AI game development tool Soon showing early customer adoption. Kingnet aims to position itself as a comprehensive game publisher and service platform [5][6]. - Kingnet's game pipeline includes innovative genres and partnerships with well-known IPs, focusing on both domestic and international markets. The company is selective in licensing new IPs to enhance market share [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Monetization Potential - Kingnet's 996 Game Center is expected to expand its market share and revenue through various monetization strategies, including ads, live-streaming, and secondary item trading. The management anticipates improved margins due to user base expansion and diversified revenue streams [2][3]. 2. AI Initiatives - The EVE AI tool is on track for a launch by year-end, with ongoing testing focused on technical optimizations. Kingnet's AI game development tool, Soon, is gaining traction among long-tail developers, indicating a positive outlook for future AI products [5][6]. 3. Game Pipeline - Kingnet is set to beta test new games based on popular IPs and is focusing on developing Wuxia RPGs from renowned authors. The company is strategically licensing innovative IPs to strengthen its market position [6][7].