证券研究报告 2025.08.24 存款搬家如何影响 A 股表现？ SAC 执证编号：S0080513070004 SFC CE Ref：BDO991 qiusuo.li@cicc.com.cn 李求索 分析员 张歆瑜 联系人 黄凯松 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080124070034 xinyu7.zhang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080521070010 SFC CE Ref：BRQ876 kaisong.huang@cicc.com.cn 居民存款搬家趋势初显 近期A股市场持续活跃，上证指数突破 3800 点，创 10 年新高，近一周（8 月 18-22 日）A股市场日均成交额达 2.6 万 亿元，以自由流通市值计算的日均换手率近 5%。市场活跃度提升、增量资金入市的来源之一是居民存款搬家的初步显 现。近年来我国居民储蓄增长较快，2022 年-2024 年居民累计新增存款 48.7 万亿元，储蓄存款余额累计增长 47.6%， 增速高于名义GDP增长。但近期随着市场和宏观环境变化，出现了一定的居民"存款搬家"现象，具体包括：1）非银 金融存款提升。7 月新增居民存款同比减少了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cambricon with a target price (TP) raised to Rmb1,835, reflecting a 47.6% upside from the current price of Rmb1,243.20 [1][3][36] Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for Cambricon driven by increased capital expenditure (capex) from Chinese cloud service providers, diversification of chipset platforms, and significant R&D investments [2][28][36] - Cambricon's AI chips shipments are expected to grow significantly, with projections of 2.1 million units by 2030, representing a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2030 [28][33] - The Chinese AI chips market is projected to grow from US$19 billion in 2024 to US$26 billion in 2025, with Cambricon expected to capture a market share of 3% in 2025 and 11% by 2028 [28][36] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Cambricon have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of Rmb6,468.3 million in 2025E and Rmb29,377.1 million by 2027E, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [5][29] - The report anticipates a net income of Rmb1,506 million in 2025E, increasing to Rmb17,598 million by 2030E, indicating a strong growth trajectory [29][30] Market Trends - The report notes a 119% year-over-year increase in Tencent's capex for Q2 2025, alongside a 23% increase from GS, indicating a robust investment environment in the Chinese cloud sector [2][28] - The diversification of chipset platforms is emphasized, particularly with the launch of DeepSeek V3.1, which aims to mitigate supply risks amid tariff uncertainties [2][28] R&D and Innovation - Cambricon plans to invest Rmb4,500 million (approximately US$628 million) in AI chips and software over the next three years, demonstrating a strong commitment to R&D [2][28] - The report highlights that Cambricon has passed compatibility tests for DeepSeek, reinforcing its strong R&D capabilities [2][28]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the humanoid robotics industry, driven by advancements in technology and increasing applications across various sectors. Core Insights - The 2025 World Robot Conference showcased a significant presence of startups, with approximately 80% of exhibitors being newly established companies, highlighting innovation in the robotics sector [1][4] - Dexterous hand products emerged as a key highlight, with five-finger dexterous hands expected to replace traditional grippers, leading to a substantial increase in adoption and sales in the second half of 2025 [1][5] - The application scenarios for humanoid robots are diverse, spanning industrial tasks, commercial management, service roles, and educational purposes, facilitated by advanced visual language action models [1][6][7] - Government support plays a crucial role in the development of humanoid robotics, with the establishment of intelligent robot centers and emphasis on technological achievements, which is vital for industry growth and public engagement [1][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The conference featured over 200 companies, including nearly 60 robotics integrators, showcasing more than 150 new products, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the robotics market [2] Emerging Technologies - Notable trends include the rise of dexterous hands and the integration of tactile sensors, enhancing interaction capabilities with physical objects, and local suppliers competing in the high-precision components market [5] Application Scenarios - Humanoid robots are utilized in various environments, including industrial settings for repetitive tasks, commercial spaces for product management, and service industries for tasks like laundry folding [6][7] Government Role - The government is instrumental in fostering the humanoid robotics sector, with initiatives aimed at establishing a strong value chain and increasing public awareness, thereby solidifying China's leadership in this field [8] Public Engagement - New facilities in Beijing promote public interest in smart technologies through interactive experiences and demonstrations, contributing to the broader adoption of robotics [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the stock market, cautious on bonds, and optimistic on commodities [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the PPI was below expectations while social financing and CPI exceeded expectations, leading to a neutral outlook for the stock market. GDP growth was above expectations, putting pressure on the bond market, while the commodity market outlook remains optimistic [1][2]. - The industry rotation model for August recommends sectors such as comprehensive, comprehensive finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, telecommunications, and light industry manufacturing, indicating a shift from real estate and consumer services [4][12]. - The small-cap growth style is expected to continue its dominance, supported by macroeconomic indicators and investor sentiment [5][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - As of the end of July, PPI was below expectations, while social financing and CPI were above expectations, leading to a neutral view on the stock market. GDP growth was consistently above expectations, negatively impacting the bond market [2][4]. Industry Recommendations - The August industry rotation model recommends comprehensive, comprehensive finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, telecommunications, and light industry manufacturing, while excluding real estate and consumer services [4][12]. Investment Strategies - The best-performing strategy in July was the new stock strategy, achieving a monthly return of 11.3%, significantly outperforming major small-cap indices [8]. - The growth trend resonance stock selection strategy yielded a return of 7.9%, while the XG Boost growth selection strategy achieved a return of 5.8% [9]. - For August, the report suggests focusing on small-cap combinations and dividend/valued selections, while not recommending growth strategies due to ongoing valuation declines [11][12]. Quantitative Models - The report discusses advancements in quantitative models, particularly deep learning models that have outperformed benchmarks significantly [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the AI industry in China, projecting significant growth and opportunities for investors [1][5][53]. Core Insights - China's AI industry is positioned to lead globally due to a robust ecosystem, substantial market size, and a strong talent pool, with expectations of an annual productivity increase of approximately 0.8% over the next decade [1][4][2]. - The AI market in China is anticipated to reach 5.6 trillion RMB by 2030, presenting vast opportunities for entrepreneurs despite challenges such as high startup costs and industry uncertainties [1][5]. - There is a notable narrowing of the gap between top Chinese AI companies and their U.S. counterparts, with increased participation from global investors in financing projects [1][7]. - The report highlights a significant funding gap in AI safety investments, emphasizing the need for a "patient capital" strategy to prioritize long-term safety while achieving short-term returns [1][15][21]. Summary by Sections AI Market Overview - China's AI market is expected to grow to 5.6 trillion RMB by 2030, driven by advancements in technology and a complete industrial chain [1][5]. - The AI industry is projected to contribute an additional 12.4 trillion RMB to China's GDP by 2035, reflecting the technology's self-accelerating nature [1][4]. Investment Opportunities and Challenges - Opportunities include the emergence of numerous commercialization scenarios as AI capabilities improve and costs decrease [5]. - Challenges consist of high startup costs, including talent and computational resources, and significant industry uncertainties [5][19]. International Competitiveness - Chinese AI companies are increasingly recognized for their competitiveness on the global stage, with opportunities to participate in global standard-setting [7][11]. - The report notes a significant increase in global investor participation in financing Chinese tech projects [7][11]. AI Safety and Investment Gaps - The report identifies a stark contrast between the vast investments in AI technology and the minimal funding allocated for AI safety, highlighting a resilience funding gap of approximately 2,800 to 1 [15][21]. - It calls for a strategic focus on long-term safety investments to mitigate potential risks associated with AI advancements [15][18]. Government and Institutional Support - The Chinese government is actively promoting AI development through various measures, including financial support and regulatory optimization [50][53]. - Initiatives such as the establishment of the Science and Technology Innovation Board (科创板) aim to support high-growth tech companies, particularly in AI [53][55]. Future Trends and Innovations - The report anticipates that AI will continue to drive significant productivity gains and foster innovation across various sectors, including finance, healthcare, and manufacturing [1][4][25]. - Emerging trends in AI applications, such as generative AI and its integration into business processes, are expected to reshape industries and enhance operational efficiencies [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for Chinese consumer brands expanding overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, with a focus on Singapore as a strategic market entry point [1][13]. Core Insights - China's cultural soft power has significantly improved, ranking second globally from 2020 to 2025, surpassing Japan, the UK, and Germany, creating favorable conditions for Chinese brands to expand internationally [1][3]. - The tourism industry is a key driver for cultural exchange, with a projected 96% year-on-year increase in inbound tourists to China in 2024, enhancing the international visibility of Chinese brands [1][3]. - Successful overseas expansion requires brands to adapt to local market demands, as demonstrated by Haidilao's localized menu offerings in Singapore [1][2][4]. - Strong supply chain management is crucial for maintaining competitive pricing and product quality, as seen with brands like Mixue Ice City and Luckin Coffee [1][5]. - Singapore's favorable business environment, including tax incentives and a high percentage of Chinese residents, positions it as a gateway to Southeast Asia and beyond [1][13]. Summary by Sections Cultural Influence - The rise of China's cultural soft power is a significant factor in the successful internationalization of consumer brands, with food and entertainment serving as effective cultural ambassadors [3][17]. - The increase in inbound tourism to China is expected to bolster the recognition and acceptance of Chinese brands abroad [3]. Market Entry Strategies - Brands must prioritize location selection and adapt their strategies based on local market analysis, including understanding transportation networks to identify key commercial areas [1][14]. - Localized product offerings and strong supply chain capabilities are essential for success in foreign markets [5][11]. Case Studies - Haidilao's success in Singapore, with 22 outlets and monthly sales exceeding 2.5 million SGD at peak times, exemplifies effective localization and service excellence [2]. - Mixue Ice City has expanded to 31 stores in Singapore, leveraging its supply chain and appealing to young consumers [2]. - Luckin Coffee's unique positioning by blending tea and coffee cultures has resonated well with the younger demographic in Singapore [2]. Strategic Considerations - Brands should view international expansion as a long-term strategy, focusing on building a global supply chain and cultivating a team with international perspectives [18]. - The potential for overseas markets to serve as blue oceans for brand growth and risk diversification is significant, as evidenced by successful cases in various sectors [17].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for Zhongjin Gold, highlighting its potential for significant growth and valuation upside [2][24]. Core Insights - Zhongjin Gold, as a central enterprise, benefits from resource advantages and asset injections, maintaining stable annual production of 18.35 tons of gold and 82,000 tons of copper. The commissioning of the Shaling project is expected to add 10 tons of gold annually, significantly enhancing the company's gold output [2][4]. - The company's diversified business model, which includes gold, copper, and molybdenum, effectively mitigates commodity price volatility risks. By Q2 2025, the gross profit margin from gold is projected to rise to 55%-60%, providing upward valuation potential [2][6]. - Financially, Zhongjin Gold is robust with a low debt-to-asset ratio of 43% and a high dividend payout ratio exceeding 55%. The net profit is expected to reach between 5.5 billion to 6 billion yuan in 2025, with a dividend yield of over 4%, making it attractive within the non-ferrous sector [2][6]. - The company reported impressive Q2 performance with a net profit of 1.58 billion to 1.84 billion yuan, raising the annual profit forecast to 5.5 billion to 6 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of only 12 to 13 times, indicating significant valuation advantages [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhongjin Gold has a rich history since its listing in 2003, evolving through various stages of development. Recent asset injections and new project launches position the company for potential growth recovery [7][10]. Recent Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company achieved record net profits of 2.1 billion, 3 billion, and 3.4 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [11]. Resource and Production Capacity - As of the end of 2024, Zhongjin Gold holds substantial mineral reserves, including nearly 900 tons of gold, over 2 million tons of copper, and 600,000 tons of molybdenum, with a total mining area exceeding 600 square kilometers [12]. Future Development Plans - The Shaling gold mine project, with a resource volume of nearly 400 tons and an average grade of 2.77 grams per ton, is expected to start production by the end of 2026, significantly boosting gold output [14][16]. Market Position and Valuation - The report suggests that Zhongjin Gold's valuation should exceed 15 times earnings, corresponding to a market capitalization of over 90 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 20% from current levels [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Innolight with an updated 12-month target price (TP) of Rmb182, increased from Rmb160 [1][4]. Core Insights - Innolight's net profit for Q2 reached Rmb2.4 billion, marking a 79% year-over-year increase and a 53% quarter-over-quarter increase, indicating a re-acceleration in growth [1]. - The company anticipates strong demand for its products, particularly in the 800G and 1.6T segments, driven by cloud service providers and AI applications [2][11]. - Margin expansion is attributed to a better product mix and improved yields, contributing significantly to the strong Q2 performance [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue estimates for 2025E-2027E have been revised up by 6% to 12%, and net profit estimates have been increased by 12% to 22% following better-than-expected Q2 results [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 40.1% in 2025E, up from a previous estimate of 38.5% [8]. Demand Outlook - The company has reaffirmed a strong demand outlook from US cloud service providers for 800G products heading into the second half of 2025 and 2026, with some customers increasing orders to support AI applications [2][11]. - Innolight plans to expand its production capacity in Thailand to meet the anticipated demand [2]. Margin Improvement - The report highlights that margin improvement is driven by a shift towards higher-margin products such as 800G/1.6T optical transceivers and silicon photonics modules [3][10]. - The company is experiencing better yields, which further supports margin expansion [3]. Competitive Position - Innolight is positioned as a leading supplier in the optical transceiver market, particularly benefiting from the growth in AI and data center expansions [10][11]. - The company's strong execution in ramping up capacity and developing new products is seen as a key competitive advantage [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Eoptolink is "Buy" with an updated 12-month target price (TP) of Rmb195, increased from Rmb177 [1][10][17]. Core Views - Eoptolink is positioned to benefit from the ramp-up of 400G/800G optical transceivers, driven by key customers' deployments in AI infrastructure expected in 2025 [17]. - The company's strong second-quarter performance, with a net profit of Rmb2.38 billion, represents a 340% year-over-year increase and a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding expectations [1][2]. - Eoptolink's valuation is currently at a discount of approximately 20% compared to its larger peer Innolight, which is expected to converge as both companies share similar net profit growth outlooks [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Eoptolink's 2Q net profit was Rmb2.38 billion, significantly above the guidance range of Rmb2.13 billion to Rmb2.63 billion, driven by strong 800G shipments and margin expansion [1]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards by 6% to 14%, and net profit estimates have been increased by 9% to 20% following the better-than-expected 2Q results [10][11]. Market Position - Eoptolink is a key player in the optical transceiver market in China, with products that include up to 1.6T optical transceivers [17]. - The stock has underperformed relative to peers recently, but the strong profit beat is expected to act as a catalyst for share price recovery [3][2]. Valuation Metrics - The current 12-month forward P/E for Eoptolink is seen as attractive in a historical context, with expectations for further convergence in valuation with Innolight [8][10]. - The updated target price of Rmb195 is based on a 17x multiple of the 2026 estimated earnings [10][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [6] Core Insights - The humanoid robot market is experiencing strong demand, with companies like UBTECH, Agibot, and Unitree announcing significant orders and contracts [2][3][8] - There is an expectation for more adoption announcements in the second half of 2025, driven by advancements in technology and a push from both companies and government for humanoid adoption [8] Summary by Relevant Sections - **UBTECH's Tiangong Walker**: Received orders for approximately 100 units and expects to deliver over 300 units in 2025, with over 60% of orders for premium versions [2] - **Agibot and Unitree Contract**: Awarded a Rmb124 million humanoid robot contract from China Mobile, with Agibot receiving Rmb78 million for full-size robots and Unitree Rmb46 million for smaller robots and accessories [3] - **Market Trends**: The focus is shifting from new model announcements to tracking adoption progress, indicating a maturation of the market and a potential for a virtuous cycle in humanoid technology [8]