丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） [Table_Title] 阿里巴巴 FY2026Q2 点评：电商内生增长动力 强劲，云业务持续加速 报告要点 李锦 秦意昂 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490524110002 SFC：BUV258 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] 整体来看本轮公司财报具备较多亮点：第一，淘宝闪购的投入可控、对主站的拉动效益显著， 预计后续规模效应叠加运营效率优化，UE 将持续改善。第二，云业务增长持续加速，未来有望 高增势头。从中长期维度，即时零售的投入有望拉动用户高频消费，云业务打开第二增长曲线， 综合来看我们看好公司的投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] [Table_scodeMsg2] 阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 阿里巴巴 FY2026Q2 2] 点评：电商内生增长动力 强劲，云业务持续加速 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 FY2026Q2 公司营业收入达到 2478 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Global Bio-chem Technology Group (0809.HK) Core Insights - The company reported a net loss of HKD 155 million for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue increase of 32.0% year-on-year to HKD 1.186 billion and a gross profit increase of 144.2% to HKD 161 million [1][6] - The company is committed to debt capitalization and has successfully capitalized approximately HKD 301 million of supplier debt, reducing the total by about 34.72% [4][20] - The company aims to lower lysine production costs and plans to complete a boiler renovation project by August 2026 [4][20] - The company is exploring partnerships or investors to enhance operational efficiency and restore production at its Xinglongshan facility [4][20] Summary by Sections Latest Developments - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of HKD 1.186 billion, a 32.0% increase year-on-year, and a gross profit of HKD 161 million, a 144.2% increase year-on-year [1][6] - The EBITDA for the period was approximately HKD 82.3 million, down from HKD 102 million in the previous year, primarily due to the absence of a one-time government subsidy [1][6] Business Strategy - The company has completed a share issuance to capitalize on supplier debt, resulting in the conversion of HKD 4.61 billion in supplier debt to equity [4][20] - The company is focused on reducing lysine production costs through process optimization and aims to complete a boiler renovation project by August 2026 [4][20] - The company is actively seeking business alliances or investors to enhance operational efficiency and restore production at its Xinglongshan facility [4][20] Market Position - The company is a pioneer in corn refining and biochemical product manufacturing in Asia, with a goal to become the largest integrated manufacturer of corn-based biochemical products in the Asia-Pacific region [5][6] - The company has seen a significant increase in the sales volume of its amino acid segment, which rose by approximately 52.0% to about 187,000 tons [6][10] - The average operating rate for corn starch production in China reached 69.26% in 2024, up from 61.67% in 2023, indicating a positive trend in the upstream corn refining sector [11][12] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin improved from 7.3% in the first half of 2024 to 13.6% in the first half of 2025, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [16][17] - The company’s administrative and other expenses decreased significantly following the sale of a subsidiary, contributing to improved cash flow and liquidity [16][17] Industry Trends - The global corn production for the 2025/26 season is projected to increase to 1.264 billion tons, driven by expanded planting areas in the U.S. [11][12] - Domestic corn prices in China have been rising steadily, with prices increasing from RMB 2,075 per ton in January 2025 to RMB 2,447 per ton by June 2025 [12][16] - The lysine market is experiencing volatility due to international trade policy uncertainties, with a 5.0% decline in China's lysine export volume in the first half of 2025 [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 business volume of 9.573 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, while its market share decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 19.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 2.506 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3] - The company has slightly lowered its business volume guidance for the year to 38.2-38.7 billion pieces, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of 12.3%-13.8% [3] - The trend of "anti-involution" in the industry is shifting competition from quantity to quality, leading to a decline in overall business volume growth [3] - The single ticket revenue increased by 0.02 yuan (1.7%) to 1.21 yuan per ticket in Q3, showing improvement compared to previous quarters [4] - The single ticket core cost decreased by 0.04 yuan, with transportation costs dropping from 0.39 yuan to 0.34 yuan [4] - The company’s parcel business grew over 50% year-on-year, contributing positively to single ticket revenue and costs [5] - Single ticket profitability has started to recover, with adjusted net profit per ticket increasing from 0.21 yuan in Q2 to 0.26 yuan in Q3 [5] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.06 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.0X, 11.5X, and 10.2X [5] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Q3 business volume reached 9.573 billion pieces, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, but market share fell to 19.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 2.506 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [3] Revenue and Costs - Single ticket revenue rose by 1.7% to 1.21 yuan, with a notable improvement from previous quarters [4] - Single ticket core cost decreased by 0.04 yuan, with transportation costs declining significantly [4] Growth and Profitability - The company’s parcel business saw over 50% growth year-on-year, enhancing overall revenue [5] - Single ticket profitability improved, indicating a positive trend in profit recovery [5] Financial Projections - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 9.06 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with decreasing PE ratios [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (1928) with a target price of HKD 25.11, representing a potential upside of 27.9% from the current price of HKD 19.63 [3][5]. Core Insights - The new promotional strategies are beginning to show results, with expectations for continued market share and EBITDA growth. The company is projected to achieve EBITDA of USD 2.7 to 2.8 billion in the short term [5][6]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw net income increase by 7.3% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter, reaching USD 1.9 billion, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels [5]. - The company holds approximately USD 1.13 billion in cash, with net debt reduced to USD 5.79 billion [5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: USD 6,534 million - 2024: USD 7,080 million (8.4% increase) - 2025: USD 7,356 million (3.9% increase) - 2026: USD 8,010 million (8.9% increase) - 2027: USD 8,476 million (5.8% increase) [4][6] - **EBITDA Forecast**: - 2023: USD 2,225 million - 2024: USD 2,329 million (4.7% increase) - 2025: USD 2,321 million (-0.4% decrease) - 2026: USD 2,595 million (11.8% increase) - 2027: USD 2,793 million (7.6% increase) [4][6] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: USD 692 million - 2024: USD 1,045 million (51.0% increase) - 2025: USD 1,004 million (-4.0% decrease) - 2026: USD 1,303 million (29.8% increase) - 2027: USD 1,432 million (9.9% increase) [4][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 15.86 cents - 2024: 19.99 cents - 2025: 12.40 cents - 2026: 16.09 cents - 2027: 17.69 cents [4][6] - **Dividend Per Share**: - 2024: 3.2 cents - 2025: 3.7 cents - 2026: 4.8 cents - 2027: 5.3 cents [4][6] Market Performance - The company has regained market share in the mid-market and gaming machine segments, reaching 25.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4% [5]. - The performance of various casinos includes: - Venetian Macao: USD 692 million - Londoner: USD 686 million - Parisian: USD 218 million - Four Seasons: USD 206 million - Sands Macao: USD 72 million [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in adjusted profits, driven by AI empowerment, with a revenue increase of 39% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching $1.47 billion [3] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was $0.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 126% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51% [3] - The company is expected to continue releasing performance driven by AI, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 revised to $0.26 billion, $1.65 billion, and $2.25 billion respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of $5.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [3] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 21.24%, with adjusted net margin at 5.71%, an increase of 2.73 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The advertising technology business generated $5.27 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [4] AI Empowerment and Growth Strategy - The company has been actively integrating AI into various advertising service segments, enhancing service competitiveness and driving continuous growth [5] - Since May 2023, the company has launched four AI-based smart bidding products, significantly optimizing advertising effectiveness [4][5] - The revenue from smart bidding products accounted for over 80% of Mintegral's total revenue in Q3 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 28.36 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.7% [4] - The gross profit for Q3 was 18.18 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-over-year [4] - Adjusted net profit reached 9.50 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 26.7% and a net margin of 33.5%, up 4.9 percentage points year-over-year [4] Revenue Breakdown - The gaming and related services revenue for Q3 was 23.3 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-over-year, driven by growth in key titles such as "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Nirvana in Fire" [5] - The company continues to expand its global gaming footprint, with successful launches of new titles in overseas markets [5] AI and Education Initiatives - The Youdao segment reported revenue of 1.63 billion yuan in Q3, a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, focusing on the "AI + Education" strategy [6] - New AI-enabled hardware and software products have been introduced, enhancing the educational offerings [6] Cloud Music Developments - Cloud Music generated revenue of 1.96 billion yuan in Q3, a slight decline of 1.8% year-over-year, with AI features enhancing user experience [7] - The introduction of the "AI Tuner" feature aims to enrich the platform's content ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.91 billion yuan, 124.63 billion yuan, and 134.92 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Non-GAAP net profits for the same years are expected to be 39.67 billion yuan, 42.26 billion yuan, and 46.08 billion yuan [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 64% over the next few years, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 24% in 2025 [11] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 10.37 yuan in 2024 to 14.29 yuan in 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a strong demand for cloud services and improvements in flash sales user experience, while acknowledging short-term pressure on e-commerce [4][6] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 have been lowered to 104.3 billion, 131.3 billion, and 164.7 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -34.0%, +25.8%, and +25.5% [4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on long-term ecological synergy driven by AI investments and cloud service expansion [4][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2026 revenue is projected at 1,098.75 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is expected to be 104.38 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.0% [8] - The diluted EPS for FY2026 is forecasted at 5.7 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25.1, 19.5, and 15.2 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tencent's Q3 revenue reached 192.87 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 15% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5%, exceeding consensus expectations of 188.8 billion yuan [4] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was 70.55 billion yuan, up 18% year-over-year and 12% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate of 65.97 billion yuan [4] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by strong performance in the gaming sector, robust advertising growth fueled by AI, and improvements in financial technology services [4][10] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue: 192.87 billion yuan (yoy +15%, qoq +5%), above consensus of 188.8 billion yuan [4] - Gross Profit: 108.8 billion yuan (yoy +22%, qoq +4%), exceeding consensus of 106.39 billion yuan [4] - Adjusted Net Profit: 70.55 billion yuan (yoy +18%, qoq +12%), above consensus of 65.97 billion yuan [4] Value-Added Services (VAS) - Domestic game revenue reached 42.8 billion yuan (yoy +15%), driven by stable contributions from titles like "Delta Action" and "Honor of Kings" [5] - International game revenue was 20.8 billion yuan (yoy +43%), exceeding expectations due to growth from Supercell games and new releases [5] Marketing Business - Marketing revenue was 36.2 billion yuan (yoy +21%), surpassing expectations, driven by AI-enhanced advertising platforms [6] - The combined MAU for WeChat reached 1.414 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2% [6] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue was 58.2 billion yuan (yoy +10%), supported by growth in commercial payment activities and consumer loan services [7] AI Investments - Capital expenditure for Q3 was 12.98 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 24% [8] - AI capabilities are continuously improving, with advancements in transaction ecosystems and model performance [8][9] Investment Recommendations - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 257.02 billion yuan, 290.51 billion yuan, and 319.01 billion yuan respectively, with stable growth expected in gaming and advertising sectors [10]

公司 FY2026H1 营收同比下降 1.1%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%，经营 表现稳步改善。公司披露 FY2026H1 中报，公司营收同比下降 1.1%至 389.86 亿港元，与此同时受益于产品结构优化以及公司良好的费用管控， 经营利润率同比提升 0.3pcts 至 17.5%，经营利润同比增长 0.7%至 68.23 亿港元，呈现稳步复苏的态势，综合考虑黄金借贷公允价值变动的影响后， 归母净利润同比增长 0.1%至 25.34 亿港元。公司派发中期股息每股 0.22 港元，派息率 85.7%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 26 年 月 日 周大福（01929.HK） FY2026H1 经营表现稳健，期待下半财年复苏表现 内地：FY2026H1 内地营收下降 2.5%，公司持续优化渠道网络。 FY2026H1 中国内地营收同比下降 2.5%至 321.94 亿港元，其中零售/批 发渠道营收同比+8.1%/-10.2%，门店整合导致批发业务营收下降。 ➢ 渠道端：FY2026H1 线下聚焦单店运营优化门店，电商增速亮眼。 截止期末公司于中国内地拥有 5663 家 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The overall performance for the first half of the fiscal year is stable, with accelerated growth since October. For the first half of fiscal year 2026 (April 2025 - September 2025), the company achieved revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, impacted by store strategy contraction and high gold prices affecting product weight. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining overall stability. Since October, the company has seen further acceleration in growth, with retail value increasing by 33.9% year-on-year from October 1 to November 18, and same-store sales in mainland China growing by 38.8% [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The retail revenue in mainland China increased by 8.1%, accounting for 38.4% of total revenue. Wholesale revenue in mainland China decreased by 10.2%, making up 44.2% of total revenue due to overall store contraction and reduced purchasing under high gold prices. Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets grew by 6.5%, accounting for 17.4% of total revenue. The revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, representing 29.6% of total revenue, with priced gold performing particularly well [2] Cost Management and Margins - The overall gross margin remained above 30%, at 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduced increase in gold prices compared to the same period last year. The increase in the proportion of priced products positively impacted the gross margin. The selling and administrative expense ratio decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14%, benefiting from cost control optimization. Inventory turnover days shortened by 33 days to 424 days [3] Future Outlook and Adjustments - The company plans to further enhance the layout of high-margin priced products and optimize store structure to boost same-store sales. Given the 32.4% increase in London gold prices since the beginning of fiscal year 2026, which is 7.4 percentage points lower than the previous fiscal year's increase of 39.8%, the expected fair value loss on gold loans has been adjusted higher. Consequently, the net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028 have been revised down to HKD 7.141 billion, HKD 8.178 billion, and HKD 9.061 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.1, 18.4, and 16.6 [4][5]