C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 2025 年 11 月 25 日 沈嘉婕 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | --- | | 目标价(港币) 65 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/11/24) | | | 50.00 | | 恒生指数(2025/11/24) | | | 25,716.5 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 73.5/27.7 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 1,421.81 | | H 股数(百万) | | | 1,131.05 | | H 市值(亿元) | | | 347.61 | | 主要股东 | | | 陈爱玲(27.07%) | | 每股净值(元) | | | 9.73 | | 股价/账面净值 | | | 5.14 | | 一个月 | | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) | 61.03% | -26.42 -13.79 | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of 18.2 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan, which is a 31.8% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with net cash of 153.2 billion yuan and operating cash flow of 12.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 21.7% year-on-year growth [1]. - The classic games segment performed well, contributing to a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, driven by self-developed games and several agency games [6][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming games, including titles that have already gained traction in both domestic and international markets [6][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 35.1 billion yuan, 38.5 billion yuan, and 42.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow from 103.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 130.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2][9]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 29.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 42.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 10% [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 20.6 in 2023 to 14.2 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [2][9]. Shareholder Information - The company has a total share capital of 3.168 billion shares, with a market capitalization of 67.35 billion Hong Kong dollars [3][6]. - The major shareholder, Shining Globe International Limited, holds a 45.17% stake in the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [5][3][10] Core Insights - Kuaishou-W's Q3 2025 performance shows steady improvement in profitability, with revenue reaching 35.554 billion yuan (YoY +14%), operating profit at 4.676 billion yuan (YoY +76%), and net profit at 4.488 billion yuan (YoY +37%) [1][5] - The average daily active users (DAU) for Kuaishou in Q3 2025 was 416 million (YoY +2.1%), and the average monthly active users (MAU) reached 731 million (YoY +2.4%) [1] - The company has launched the Keling 2.5 Turbo model, which ranked first in global generative video models, contributing over 300 million yuan in revenue in Q3 2025 [2] - Kuaishou's core business revenue, primarily from online marketing services and e-commerce, grew by 19.2% YoY, with online marketing service revenue at 20.1 billion yuan (YoY +14%) [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Kuaishou from 2025 to 2027 are 143.103 billion yuan, 157.436 billion yuan, and 171.330 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 12.8%, 10.0%, and 8.8% respectively [3][4] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 17.720 billion yuan, 20.869 billion yuan, and 23.616 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.6%, 17.8%, and 13.2% respectively [4][3] - The report indicates an expected EPS of 4.10 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 15.2 [4][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) [1] Core Views - Baidu's AI infrastructure capabilities are leading, and the company is expected to see significant commercialization opportunities in its AI business [1][8] - The company's AI cloud business is experiencing rapid growth, driven by strong demand for AI solutions and the advantages of its full-stack AI capabilities [7][8] - Baidu's AI native marketing services are increasingly penetrating traditional advertising, contributing to revenue growth [7][8] - The autonomous driving business is accelerating its globalization, which is anticipated to become a new growth curve for the company [7][8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: - 2023: 134,598 million - 2024: 133,125 million - 2025: 129,495 million - 2026: 136,140 million - 2027: 142,409 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be 8.83% in 2023, -1.09% in 2024, -2.73% in 2025, 5.13% in 2026, and 4.60% in 2027 [1][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 20,315 million - 2024: 23,760 million - 2025: 21,391 million - 2026: 18,840 million - 2027: 21,682 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 168.75% in 2023, 16.96% in 2024, -9.97% in 2025, -11.93% in 2026, and 15.08% in 2027 [1][9] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: 28,747 million - 2024: 27,002 million - 2025: 19,430 million - 2026: 21,714 million - 2027: 24,742 million - Year-on-year growth rates for Non-GAAP net profit are expected to be 39.01% in 2023, -6.07% in 2024, -28.04% in 2025, 11.76% in 2026, and 13.95% in 2027 [1][9] Market Data - The closing price of Baidu's stock is 111.80 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 226,525.83 million HKD [5][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13.92 for the current year and 11.91 for the next year [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express to "Buy" [6] Core Views - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of RMB 11.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.51 billion, reflecting a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The growth in express delivery revenue was driven by a 9.8% increase in package volume and a 1.7% increase in average price per package [1] - The company anticipates a total package volume for 2025 to be between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [2] Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - Adjusted net profit increased by 5.0% year-on-year to RMB 2.51 billion, with a revenue of RMB 11.86 billion [1] - The express delivery business generated RMB 11.02 billion in revenue, up 11.6% year-on-year, supported by a 9.8% increase in package volume [1][2] Operational Data - The company completed 9.57 billion express deliveries in Q3 2025, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, capturing a market share of 19.4% [2] - The number of collection and delivery points exceeded 31,000, with approximately 10,000 owned vehicles [2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The core revenue per package was RMB 1.22, an increase of RMB 0.02 year-on-year, with cost efficiencies leading to a reduction in sorting and transportation costs [3] - The adjusted net profit per package was RMB 0.26, slightly down from RMB 0.27 in Q3 2024, but improved by RMB 0.05 from Q2 2025 [3] Profit Forecast - ZTO Express is expected to focus on network stability and competitive advantages, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 9.62 billion, RMB 11.02 billion, and RMB 12.08 billion respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][22]. Core Views - The company plans to issue up to 800 million shares of RMB ordinary shares for listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which represents 11.52% of the total share capital post-issuance. The funds raised will be used for business development and to supplement working capital [3][4]. - The issuance of A-shares is expected to have a limited dilution effect, and the company has sufficient free cash flow to maintain its dividend per share (DPS) [4][18]. - The garbage incineration industry is entering a mature phase, with a slowdown in capacity release. The national capacity for harmless treatment of municipal solid waste has increased to 1.5226 million tons per day, with incineration accounting for 76.08% [4][12]. - The company’s free cash flow has turned positive, reaching HKD 4.416 billion in 2024, indicating a shift from expansion to refined operations, which may lead to a revaluation in the secondary market [18][25]. Summary by Sections Share Issuance Impact - The proposed issuance of A-shares is expected to increase the total share capital from 6.143 billion to 6.943 billion shares, with a potential upper limit of 7.063 billion shares if the overallotment is exercised. The total dividend amount is projected to increase by 11.3% to HKD 15.97 billion, or by 14.9% to HKD 16.24 billion considering the overallotment [10][4]. Industry Analysis - The number of new garbage incineration projects has decreased significantly, with only 20 new projects in 2024, a reduction of 35 from 2023. The total investment in these projects is estimated at approximately HKD 5.26 billion, down about 80% from HKD 28.77 billion in 2023 [4][15]. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be HKD 3.532 billion, with a growth rate of 4.6% for the following years. The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is estimated at 8.7x for 2025, indicating potential for valuation recovery [22][25]. - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy, with a projected DPS of HKD 0.23 for 2025, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [25][22]. Valuation Comparison - The current PE ratio of the company’s H-shares is 9.8x, significantly lower than the average issuance PE of over 20x for A-share listed garbage incineration companies, suggesting room for valuation improvement [18][22].

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 优于大市 Q3 延续绩优表现，海外份额扩张蓄力中线空间 Q3 旺季收入增速环比平稳，主业利润增速环比改善。2025Q3 公司收入 183.4 亿元/+15.5%，好于彭博预期的 14.6%，环比上半年的 16%增速维持基本稳定； Non-GAAP 归母净利润 191.56 亿元/+221.2%，主要系出售 Makemytrip 带来其 他收益贡献；其中主业相关的经调整 EBITDA 为 63.5 亿元/+11.7%，环比提 速，好于彭博预期的+4.8%，对应利润率为 34.6%/-1.2pct。今年以来海外投 入及占比提升致利润率同比回落，但公司凭借优异执行力带来良好表现。 收入拆分：国内与出境自由行份额继续提升，海外 Trip.com 增势不减。 2025Q3 公司住宿预订收入 80.5 亿元/+18.3%，交通票务收入 63.1 亿元 /+11.6%，旅游度假收入 16.1 亿元/+3.1%，商旅管理收入 7.6 亿元/+15.2%， 其他收入 16.5 亿元/+33.9%。分区域看：1）估算 Q3 国内收入同比增长约 10%， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue exceeding guidance and a notable increase in performance compared to previous quarters. The hotel revenue for Q3 reached approximately 30.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [11] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in Q4, with projected revenue growth of 2-6% and domestic growth of 3-7%. The anticipated growth in franchise revenue is between 17-21% year-on-year [14][15] - The company is focusing on optimizing revenue management and strengthening direct sales channels, which has led to a slight recovery in domestic RevPAR, with a mixed RevPAR of 256 yuan, down only 0.1% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 revenue was 6.96 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous guidance of 2-6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase year-on-year [11] - The company’s domestic same-store RevPAR decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, showing a gradual recovery compared to earlier quarters [12] Membership and Revenue Management - The number of members in the company's loyalty program exceeded 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. Member bookings increased by 19.7%, accounting for 74% of total room nights [12] - The company has successfully implemented revenue management strategies, resulting in a positive year-on-year growth in average daily rate (ADR) of 0.9% [12] Expansion and Profitability - The company opened 2,038 new stores and closed 483, resulting in a net increase of 1,555 stores. The total number of operating hotels reached 12,600, with a market share estimated at 11% [13] - Franchise revenue and gross operating profit (GOP) increased by 27.4% and 28.6% year-on-year, respectively, while direct store revenue and GOP decreased by 5.5% and 24.7% [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable or slight increase in domestic RevPAR in Q4, with overall core indicators expected to maintain a healthy development trend [14] - The management expects to exceed the initial target of opening 2,300 new hotels by the end of the year, supported by improved signing and conversion rates [13] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue growth projections for 2025-2027, expecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, 5.8%, and 6.2%, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 4.44 billion, 5.17 billion, and 5.78 billion yuan for the same period [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Kuaishou's Q3 2025 revenue reached 35.6 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 14%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 5 billion CNY, up 26% year-on-year. Domestic business operating profit was 5.4 billion CNY, a significant increase of 54% year-on-year, while overseas business incurred an operating loss of 200 million CNY [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - Kuaishou's Q3 2025 online marketing service revenue was 20.1 billion CNY, growing 14% year-on-year, contributing 56.5% to total revenue. The growth was driven by AI-enabled advertising, with ad load and eCPM both improving, leading to a 4-5% increase in domestic advertising revenue. The company also saw a 3% increase in live streaming revenue, totaling 9.6 billion CNY, contributing 26.9% to total revenue. Other services, including e-commerce, generated 5.9 billion CNY, a 41% increase year-on-year, contributing 16.6% to total revenue [8] User Engagement - Kuaishou's content ecosystem continues to thrive, with average daily active users (DAU) reaching 416 million, a 2.1% year-on-year increase, and average monthly active users (MAU) reaching 731 million, up 2.4% year-on-year [8] Profitability Metrics - Kuaishou achieved a gross margin of 54.7% in Q3 2025, with an adjusted net profit margin of 14.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, respectively. R&D expenses rose by 17.7% to 3.7 billion CNY, primarily due to increased AI investments and employee benefits [8] AI Business Development - The commercialization of Kuaishou's AI, known as Keling, progressed smoothly, generating over 300 million CNY in revenue in Q3 2025, a 20% increase from the previous quarter. The Keling 2.5 Turbo model topped global rankings in video and image generation shortly after its launch [8]

灯塔引领品质房企，精益求精笃行向上 建发国际集团(01908) 证券研究报告 房地产开发 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.24 投资评级:买入(首次) | 基本数据 | 2025-11-24 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 16.95 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.40 | | 每股净资产(元) | 13.14 | | 总股本(亿股) | 22.40 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -19% -4% 12% 28% 44% 60% 建发国际集团 恒生指数 房地产开发 分析师 房诚琦 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090002 fangcq@ctsec.com 分析师 何裕佳 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090001 heyj@ctsec.com 分析师 陈思宇 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090008 chensy04@ctsec.com 相关报告 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...