Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) with a target price of HKD 16.43, indicating a potential upside of 37.5% from the current price of HKD 11.95 [1][7][14]. Core Insights - The company announced a significant profit increase for 2025, with an expected net profit of at least RMB 2.9 billion, representing a growth of over 128% compared to RMB 1.27 billion in 2024. This increase is attributed to higher sales of electric two-wheelers and optimized product structure [4][9]. - The new national standard for electric bicycles is set to stabilize the market post-Chinese New Year 2026, as the transition period for old standard products ends, which is expected to restore consumer purchasing willingness [5][10]. - Yadea is focusing on long-term growth through continuous investment in R&D and marketing, enhancing its product competitiveness and global marketing capabilities. In H1 2025, the company sold approximately 8.79 million electric scooters and bicycles, a year-on-year increase of about 37.8%, with a gross margin rising to 19.6% [6][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Yadea from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 35.78 billion (+26.7%), RMB 40.48 billion (+13.1%), and RMB 45.59 billion (+12.6%) respectively. The net profit forecasts are RMB 2.99 billion (+135%), RMB 3.25 billion (+8.8%), and RMB 3.55 billion (+9.3%) [12][8]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 18.7% in 2025 to 19.8% in 2027, reflecting ongoing enhancements in product structure and sales volume [8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning into a new phase characterized by innovation and internationalization, with a focus on commercializing innovative drugs and expanding into emerging markets [1][7]. - The impact of centralized procurement on core products is expected to stabilize, leading to a recovery in revenue and profit growth starting in 2024 [7][13]. - The company has a robust pipeline of nearly 40 innovative drug candidates, with several expected to launch commercially in 2024 [7][23]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to decline from 8,013 million in 2023 to 7,469 million in 2024, before increasing to 10,061 million by 2026 [2]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 2,401 million in 2023 to 1,620 million in 2024, with a recovery to 1,955 million by 2026 [2]. - The company’s PE ratio is forecasted to improve from 18.6 in 2024 to 15.4 in 2026, indicating a potential increase in valuation [2]. Business Model and Strategy - The company has evolved from a CSO model to a full-chain innovative pharmaceutical enterprise, focusing on specialized fields such as dermatology and ophthalmology [11][18]. - The internationalization strategy includes expanding into Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with nearly 20 drug applications submitted in these regions [7][11]. - The company plans to spin off its dermatology business, Demy Pharma, for independent listing, enhancing its focus on specialized markets [7][11]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The innovative product pipeline includes five drugs that have already been commercialized, with additional candidates in various stages of development [20][24]. - Key products such as Vifor (for chronic kidney disease) and Y-3 (for acute ischemic stroke) are expected to drive future growth [29][37]. - The company is targeting significant unmet medical needs in the Chinese market, particularly in areas like high phosphorus levels in dialysis patients and rabies passive immunity [31][47].

雅迪控股（1585.HK） 2026-1-20 星期二 | 目标价： | | 16.43 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 | 价： | 11.95 | 港元 | | 预计升幅： | | | 37.5% | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2026-1-19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 11.95 | | 总股本（亿股） | 31.13 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 371 | | 净资产（亿港元） | 91.8 | | 总资产（亿港元） | 303.35 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 16.7/11.01 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 3.24 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 | 大为投资 | 46.4% | | --- | --- | | 方圆投资 | 16.56% | 相关报告 更新报告：行业新政策落地，公司业务 有望回归增长-YS-20250120 更新报告：产品与营销服双轮驱动，业 绩增长动力充沛-YS-20240131 深度报告：解决短途出行时代痛点，综 合优势拓展成长空间-20230417 | 研究 ...

四问四答核心分歧，冉冉升起的中国奢侈品牌典范 [Table_CoverStock] —老铺黄金(6181.HK)公司深度报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 20 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 姜文镪 骆峥 S1500524120004 S1500525020001 jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com luozheng1@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 港股深度报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 老铺黄金 (6181.HK) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 [Table_Chart] 资料来源：iFind，信达证券研发中心 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 老铺黄金 恒生指数 [Table_BaseData] 公司主要数据 | 收盘价（港元） | 695.00 | | --- | --- | | 52 周内股价波动区间 | 285.20-1108.00 | | (港元) | | | 最近一月涨跌幅(％) | +3.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.76 | | 流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 93.2, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 68.35 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company plans to focus on product specialization and optimize its operational system in 2026, enhancing development certainty and significantly expanding its building block vehicle category [1]. - The company aims to increase the number of SKUs in 2025 to expand its IP characters and product forms, although some products may underperform due to trial and error [1]. - The company will concentrate resources on successful product lines and categories in 2026, while controlling personnel scale and enhancing R&D process management [1]. - The existing core IPs will innovate styles and diversify price ranges, with several IPs expected to benefit from the release of related movies in 2026 [2]. - The company has accelerated the acquisition of overseas licensed IPs, with Southeast Asia and North America expected to provide strong support for revenue growth [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly from HKD 876.69 million in 2023 to HKD 4,899 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 169.27% from 2023 to 2024 and 27.05% from 2026 to 2027 [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching HKD 599.90 million, and further increasing to HKD 1,101.44 million by 2027 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -2.69 in 2024 to 4.42 in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [8]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 25.35 in 2025 to 13.81 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Yihai International (1579.HK) [4][15] Core Insights - Yihai International has transitioned from a high-growth valuation to a low-valuation, high-dividend company, with a focus on cash dividends and a stable return [22][24] - The compound seasoning industry in China is expected to continue growing, with a market size of approximately 126.5 billion yuan, indicating potential for further penetration and expansion [22][30] - The company is poised for growth through its B-end and overseas markets, with significant improvements expected in its affiliate income as it stabilizes alongside Haidilao [2][15] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Since its listing in 2016, Yihai International has experienced a cycle of expansion, valuation bubble, adjustment, and stabilization [22] - The company has shifted its market perception from a high-growth entity to one focused on dividends, with a high payout ratio of 89.97% in 2023 and 95.06% in 2024 [24] Industry Space - The compound seasoning market is entering a phase of steady growth after rapid expansion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% expected from 2020 to 2024 [30] - The market for compound seasonings is driven by trends such as increased restaurant chain rates and urbanization, which support the growth of this segment [30] Growth Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth from 6.57 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 800 million yuan to 980 million yuan during the same period [15][8] - The B-end market is a key growth area, with the company planning to establish a small B team to enhance its product offerings and directly engage with restaurant clients [2][66] - Overseas markets are also expected to grow rapidly, with projected revenue of 270 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.4% [70] Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate modest growth, with revenues expected to increase by 0.5%, 5.9%, and 6.0% respectively, while net profits are projected to grow by 8.8%, 10.3%, and 10.2% [15][8]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold (6181.HK) for the first time [1][6]. Core Views - Laopu Gold has established a significant brand advantage in the ancient gold industry over the past decade, maintaining a high-end brand positioning and building a differentiated competitive advantage through "brand, product, channel, and customer service" [3][9]. - The company aims for "brand internationalization and market globalization," actively expanding its market presence and creating a world-class gold brand with cultural heritage value [6][62]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopu Gold is recognized as the first brand of ancient hand-crafted gold in China, leveraging its first-mover advantage to build a strong brand influence since its establishment in 2009 [9]. - The company's major shareholder is Beijing Hongqiao Jinji Consulting Co., Ltd., holding 32.49% of shares, with a total market capitalization of 108.68 billion yuan [1][14]. Product Positioning - The company focuses on high-end gold products, with a loyal membership base of approximately 480,000 as of June 30, 2025, reflecting a growth of 130,000 members from December 31, 2024 [5][16]. - Gold products account for over 99.5% of total revenue, with significant growth in sales of both pure gold and gold-inlaid products [5][17]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for Laopu Gold from 2025 to 2027 is 26.2 billion yuan, 35.4 billion yuan, and 43.5 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 208.0%, 35.0%, and 23.0% respectively [4][58]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 3.82 billion yuan, 5.09 billion yuan, and 6.28 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 159.1%, 33.3%, and 23.3% respectively [4][58]. Channel Structure - Laopu Gold employs an integrated online and offline retail channel strategy, with a strong focus on high-end shopping centers in major cities [36][42]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company operates 41 self-owned stores across 16 cities, primarily located in prestigious commercial centers [37][39]. Product Technology - The company emphasizes the use of ancient craftsmanship and innovation in product development, maintaining a rigorous quality control system to ensure product competitiveness [28][32]. - Laopu Gold has created over 2,100 original designs and holds more than 1,500 copyrights, showcasing its commitment to continuous innovation [23][32]. Investment Recommendation - The report highlights Laopu Gold's commitment to brand positioning and market expansion, projecting strong revenue and profit growth driven by product innovation and market strategies [6][62].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 26.00 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 215%-225% compared to 2024, driven by improved investment performance and a one-time impact from tax policy changes [1][5]. - The strong investment performance in the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, is expected to offset the negative impact from the first half of the year, where investment losses were recorded [2][5]. - A decrease in the effective tax rate is anticipated to further boost net profit, with the effective tax rate dropping to approximately 10.4% in the first half of 2025, compared to 42% in 2024 [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve resilient growth in its liability side, particularly through the promotion of participating insurance products, which are projected to attract strong demand in 2026 [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to HKD 7.40, HKD 3.48, and HKD 3.88 respectively, reflecting a significant upward adjustment due to favorable investment returns and tax rate reductions [5][13]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts gross premium income to increase from HKD 111.27 billion in 2024 to HKD 117.05 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 5.19% [11]. - Total investment income is expected to rise significantly from HKD 65.21 billion in 2024 to HKD 75.82 billion in 2025, marking an increase of 16.26% [11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach HKD 27.10 billion in 2025, a substantial increase of 221.36% from 2024 [11]. Valuation and Estimates - The target price of HKD 26 is derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, reflecting a combination of intrinsic value and book value approaches [12][5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease significantly from 11.03 in 2024 to 3.08 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [11]. Investment Strategy - The company is actively increasing its equity allocation, with the combined proportion of stocks and funds expected to rise from 12.2% as of mid-2025, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-risk, higher-return investments [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 31.73 per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a projected year-on-year growth of 215%-225% for 2025, translating to approximately HKD 266-274 billion [8]. - The strong performance is attributed to a low base effect and a reversal of deferred tax losses, which has driven the company's annual performance beyond market expectations [8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be HKD 7.52, with subsequent years showing slight declines and recoveries [9][10]. Financial Projections - The company's intrinsic value is projected to be HKD 272,123 million in 2023, decreasing to HKD 234,224 million in 2024, before recovering to HKD 256,442 million in 2025 and continuing to grow to HKD 294,410 million by 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 27,014 million in 2025, before declining to HKD 22,389 million in 2026 and recovering to HKD 25,200 million in 2027 [2][10]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from HKD 1,485 million in 2023 to HKD 1,983 million in 2025, with a steady increase to HKD 2,276 million by 2027 [10]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company's performance has outpaced the Hang Seng Index, with a notable increase of 723%-758% in net profit for the second half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [8][9]. - The report indicates that the company is benefiting from favorable market conditions, particularly in the equity market, which is expected to drive investment performance [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the EV method to assign a reasonable valuation of 0.55 times PEV for the company, reflecting an improvement in operational quality and a potential recovery in valuation multiples [10]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 3.03, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [12]. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a positive outlook for the company, driven by strong earnings growth, favorable market conditions, and a solid valuation framework, supporting the "Buy" recommendation [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" with a target price of HKD 410.00 for the company [1]. Core Insights - Recent market expectations for the company have been influenced by short-term high-frequency tracking data, leading to concerns about IP popularity and sustainable performance growth. However, the company's Q4 domestic and overseas performance shows strong resilience, supported by its IP matrix after the sales peak of Labubu 3.0. The report identifies three potential discrepancies in market expectations: comprehensive judgment of high-frequency data, growth potential of new IPs, and the potential of content and IP ecosystem layout [1]. Summary by Sections Q4 Overseas Market Performance - The report anticipates that Q4 overseas performance, particularly in North America, will exceed market pessimism. Despite a projected 10% decline in Tik Tok sales in Q4, improved inventory levels in stores are expected to enhance offline sales significantly compared to Q3. In Southeast Asia, while some countries saw a year-on-year decline in sales, this is attributed to natural channel structure changes, with strong growth anticipated in overall channel sales [2][3]. New IP Growth Potential - The report highlights that the diversification of IPs in Q4 has been successful, with new IPs like Star People and Crybaby gaining traction, reducing the sales share of Labubu. In Southeast Asia, the sales share of Labubu has dropped below 40%, with new IPs collectively accounting for over 50% in some markets. The report suggests that the company's channel layout in domestic and Southeast Asian markets is robust, allowing for the transmission of popularity from established to emerging IPs [3][4]. Ecosystem Development and Content Layout - The company's IP content layout is entering a practical implementation phase, with plans for animated shorts and potential feature films to enhance IP influence. The report draws parallels with the success of Sanrio's Hello Kitty in leveraging content to boost brand recognition and sales. The content strategy is expected to become a new tool for breaking into broader markets, complementing existing strengths in product offerings and fan engagement [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, projecting adjusted net profits of RMB 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion for 2025-2027. The target price is based on a PE ratio of 27x for 2026, reflecting the company's high barriers to entry and ongoing diversification of IP and business models [5].