• 上周五美股大跌，道琼斯指数创去年 10 月以来最大单周跌幅，油价下跌 3%，美债收益率下降，美元小幅回升，日元大幅上涨，显示市场避险情绪 升温，可选消费、科技、工业和能源板块领跌。 • 密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至一年来新低 64.7，引发市场对消费支出 （占美国经济总需求 70%）的担忧，主要原因是通胀预期增加和对未来失 业率上升的担忧。 • 美联储会议纪要显示，若通胀预期持续上升，可能采取更激进的货币政策， 但近期疲软经济数据可能促使其放缓甚至停止缩表，以应对潜在经济放缓 风险。 • 美国劳动力市场和服务业出现警讯，华盛顿特区初次申请失业金人数连续 两周上升，服务业 PMI 指数意外跌破荣枯线至 49.7，反映出政府削减支出 带来的外溢效应。 • 沃尔玛发布谨慎业绩指引后股价大跌，引发市场对家得宝、TJX Companies 和塔吉特等其他零售商未来业绩的担忧，加剧了上周五的市 场跌势。 Q&A 上周美国股市出现了较大波动，能否详细分析一下具体情况及其背后的原因？ 上周美国股市经历了从喜悦到悲伤的剧烈波动。上周三，标普 500 指数一度创 下新高，但到了周五却大幅下跌 1.7%，这是自今年 1 月以来 ...

Investment Rating - The humanoid robot industry is rated as having significant growth potential, with a total addressable market (TAM) estimated at 5 billion units, driven by demographic trends and labor force dynamics [11][34]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is expected to replicate the success of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry, supported by government initiatives and China's advanced manufacturing capabilities [11][25]. - Humanoid robots are positioned to address labor shortages by performing tasks that are dangerous, repetitive, or undesirable for human workers, enhancing workplace safety and operational efficiency [6][18]. - The adoption curve for humanoid robots is anticipated to accelerate rapidly over the next five years, mirroring the NEV take-off trend of the 2010s [34][37]. Market Dynamics - The working-age population in China is projected to shrink significantly, leading to increased labor costs and reduced productivity, which presents opportunities for the robotics industry to fill labor gaps [13][18]. - The global average of robot density has surged, with countries like South Korea leading in industrial robot use, indicating a growing trend towards automation across various sectors [18][19]. - Policy initiatives in various countries, including Japan and the EU, are driving innovation and competitiveness in the robotics sector, creating a favorable environment for humanoid robot development [19][20]. Technological Advancements - Advancements in AI, robotics, and battery technology are expected to make humanoid robots cheaper and more efficient, driving rapid consumer adoption [30][34]. - Major tech companies are investing in humanoid robot technology, enhancing capabilities and expanding use-case scenarios [30][31]. - The emergence of new models and technologies, such as the DeepSeek R1, could alleviate hardware challenges and drive innovations in the humanoid robot space [30][34]. Competitive Landscape - Key players in the humanoid robot industry include Sanhua Intelligent, Leader Drive, and Hengli Hydraulic, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding market [11][25]. - The supply chain for humanoid robots is supported by China's advanced manufacturing capabilities, focusing on critical components such as motors, reducers, and sensors [6][25]. - Collaborative robots (cobots) and autonomous mobile robots (AGVs) are crucial to the development of humanoid robots, sharing key technologies and principles [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Cambricon (688256.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb607.80, reflecting a downside of 1.7% from the current price of Rmb618.51 [14][16]. Core Insights - The collaboration between Nanjing Intelligent Computing Center and Cambricon to establish a data center utilizing local chips and computing power is expected to enhance the retail industry's AI capabilities, particularly through the DeepSeek foundation model [1]. - The revenue guidance for Q4 2024 is projected between Rmb885 million and Rmb1,015 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 57% to 80%, with a net income of Rmb284 million, marking a significant recovery from a loss of Rmb37 million in Q4 2023 [2][3]. - The report highlights the positive impact of generative AI on Cambricon's market expansion, enabling clients to leverage AI across various applications [2][3]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - The earnings revision indicates a reduction in the expected net loss for 2024 to Rmb433 million from a previous estimate of Rmb617 million, driven by stronger-than-expected guidance and the growth of generative AI applications [4][6]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been increased by 9%, 6%, and 4% respectively, reflecting the anticipated demand and cost-saving potential in marketing [6][9]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a discounted EV/EBITDA methodology to derive the target price, applying a multiple of 77x EV/EBITDA for the 2030E EBITDA, which has been raised by 4% [9][17]. - The target EV/EBITDA multiple is based on comparisons with local semiconductor peers, with an assumption of a 23% EBITDA growth rate in the outer years and a sustained EBITDA margin of 41% [9][17]. - The updated target price of Rmb607.80 implies a valuation of 77x 2025E EV/Sales, consistent with historical trading ranges [9][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics, with a 12-month price target of HK$7.90, indicating an upside potential of 15.8% from the current price of HK$6.82 [12][8]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is set to begin mass production of its J6P platform, which has a computing power of 560 TOPS, in the third quarter of 2025, alongside the delivery of its SuperDrive autonomous driving solution [1][2]. - The company has expanded its partnerships to over 20 brand clients for the Journey 6 platform verification, up from 10 clients when the J6 platform was initially announced in April 2024 [1]. - The earnings forecast for Horizon Robotics has been revised upwards for 2025-2030, primarily due to higher revenues and a lower operating expense ratio, driven by the high-end J6P and SuperDrive solutions [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Product Offerings - The J6P platform is expected to enhance the product mix towards high-end solutions, with mass production of the J6M (128 TOPS) already starting on BYD car models from February 2025 [1]. - The SuperDrive solution demonstrated capabilities in complex driving conditions, including urban, highway, and parking scenarios, showcasing features like obstacle avoidance and dynamic speed control [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for Horizon Robotics have been revised, with projections for 2025 increasing to Rmb4.09 billion, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [8]. - The net loss for 2025-2026 has been adjusted to Rmb1.7 billion and Rmb142 million, respectively, showing an improvement from earlier forecasts [3]. - The gross margin is expected to decline slightly over the forecast period, with adjustments of 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points from 2025 to 2030 due to changes in product mix [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HK$7.90 is based on an 18.3x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2028E, reflecting the company's long-term growth potential [8][9]. - The report anticipates strong revenue growth of 77% and 60% year-over-year in 2027 and 2028, respectively, indicating robust market demand for autonomous driving technologies [9].

中金公司 电车先锋半月谈 摘要 Q&A 请介绍比亚迪最新的智能化战略发布会及其市场反应。 本周比亚迪如期召开了智能化战略发布会，市场对该发布会已有充分预期。发 布会主要关注车型数量、上市节奏和定价。公司策略是快速上车，全系标配超 出市场预期。具体来看，公司具备数据研发资源和产业化能力优势，DeepSeek • 比亚迪发布 21 款车型，预计二季度快速上量，10 万元以上车型全部标配 定价，25 年智驾版与 24 年非智驾版基本无价差，预计 25-26 年高速 NOA 核心硬件方案销售占比达 60%-80%，规模效应有望释放盈利弹性，维持盈 利预测，未来 2-3 年有望保持 20%-30%盈利增速。 • 一月狭义乘用车零售同比下降 12%，受春节、购车潮透支及补贴政策切换 影响，但出口达 38 万辆。预计二月零售仍有压力，三月环比改善，以旧换 新政策有望使 25 年零售销量实现正增长，维持 25 年新能源乘用车销量增 长 25%-30%的判断。 • 柴油发电机行业被康明斯等四家垄断，海外资本开支上行导致产能紧张， 预计供不应求将强化，一季度招标价格已上涨 10%-15%。科泰电源等企业 与海外发动机企业合作稳定 ...

中金公司 风光公用半月谈 摘要 Q&A 2025 年电力板块的整体情况如何，面临哪些挑战和机遇？ 2025 年电力板块的热度相对较低，主要由于去年年底交易出来的 2025 年度交 易电价回落引发了市场担忧。此外，AI 等投资主题吸引了大量资金流入。然而， 我们认为电力板块在面临挑战的同时也存在机遇。绿电运营商受到政策重点扶 • 新能源入市电价政策要求所有新能源电量进入市场交易，通过价格信号促 进理性投资，并建立新能源可持续发展价格结算机制，稳定收益预期，提 振行业投资信心。该政策对 2025 年 6 月 1 日前存量项目友好，新项目需全 部参与市场，差价由工商业用户分摊。 • 为实现十四五能耗目标，国内政策加码敦促下游用户提高绿电消费，如加 速核发绿证、完善碳交易工具。欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）过渡期已启 动，将于 2026 年正式征收，内外压力促使高耗能企业增加绿电使用，提高 消纳支付能力。 • 建议关注破净且估值较低的港股绿电运营商，特别是风电占比较多的龙头 企业，以及 A 股三北地区风电竞争优势企业。新能源政策有望托底价格， 使这些企业最早受益。同时，关注福建世丰赛道，其资产质量优质且具备 较高投资 ...

Atoms & Photons February 7, 2025 04:26 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America As GenAI moves deeper into the knowledge economy (bits & bytes) investors should prepare for the eventual move into the physical economy (atoms & photons). It's already begun, and the TAM could eventually exceed global GDP. 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 Our recently published Humanoid 100 list and continuin ...

Investment Rating - The report places BYD on a Positive Catalyst Watch with an Overweight (OW) rating and a price target of HK$475.00 for December 2025 [2][6][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights two major trends for 2025: the rising adoption of advanced autonomous driving (AD) solutions and the expansion of Chinese brands in overseas markets, particularly as foreign competitors face challenges from US tariffs [2][21]. - BYD's earnings estimates for 2025 are approximately 10% above consensus, indicating strong growth potential [2][21]. - The report anticipates that BYD's global deliveries will reach 6.5 million units by 2026, with around 1.5 million units coming from overseas markets, leading to an increase in global market share from 3% in 2023 to 7% in 2026 [21][22]. Summary by Sections Advanced Autonomous Driving (AD) Solutions - BYD is expected to showcase its latest navigation on autopilot (NOA) solutions, which will significantly reduce the bill of materials (BOM) costs for both city and highway NOA features [5][8]. - The BOM for city NOA is projected to decrease from approximately Rmb20,000 in 2024 to Rmb10,000-15,000 in 2025, while highway NOA costs are expected to drop from Rmb4,000-5,000 to around Rmb3,000 [7][8]. Overseas Market Expansion - BYD plans to complete assembly plants in Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Hungary by the end of 2025, which will enhance its production capacity and help mitigate tariff impacts through localization [5][21]. - The report forecasts that Chinese brands, including BYD, could double their overseas market share to approximately 12% by 2030 [5][21]. Financial Projections - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for BYD, estimating a total equity value of Rmb1,284,233 million, translating to a price of HK$475 [15][16]. - Key assumptions include a 13x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the EV battery segment and a 1.4x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for NEV manufacturing, reflecting BYD's potential for a re-rating driven by global expansion [15][22].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中金公司 造纸 1H25 展望 & 太阳纸业深度 • 2025 年造纸行业新增产能投放接近尾声，但供需面难现趋势性大行情。地 产资金流入减少，制造业贷款增加，地方政府鼓励投产，多重因素驱动企 业扩产，需警惕新增产能带来的供给压力。 2025 年造纸行业整体供需面呈现宽松平衡状态。文化纸的新增产能较少，而特 种纸和白卡纸的新增产能较多，导致这些板块存在过剩风险。尽管行业盈利处 于历史低点，许多企业仍在投产，这主要是由于宏观资金链的变化和企业心态 因素。随着地产吸纳资金减少，制造业吸纳贷款占比增加，使得企业能够通过 银行贷款或转债定增等形式获得资金进行扩产。此外，地方政府鼓励投产并提 供优惠条件，也促使企业继续扩展。预计 2025 年的新增产能将逐渐进入尾声， 摘要 Q&A • 2025 年上半年造纸行业市场预期乐观，阔叶浆外盘价格上涨，国内纸企具 备提价底气，龙头企业库存成本下降，业绩有望环比改善，建议逢低吸纳。 但需关注三月份会议后全年走势及下半年新增产能投放压力。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投 ...

该政策对保险行业有何影响？ 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中金公司 险资投资黄金业务试点政策解读 20240208 摘要 • 监管政策放宽允许保险资金投资黄金，旨在缓解当前保险公司面临的资产 配置压力，并为未来拓宽其他资产类别积累经验，是对险资可投资资产类 别的重要尝试。 Q&A 保险资金投资黄金业务试点政策的背景和主要内容是什么？ 2025 年 2 月 7 日，国家金融监管总局发布了关于开展保险资金投资黄金业务试 点的通知。该通知明确了保险资金投资黄金的范围，并确定了首批试点公司， 包括十家大型险企，如人保财险、中国人寿、太平人寿、中国信保、平安财险、 平安人寿、太保财险、太保寿险、泰康人寿和新华人寿。这些公司基本囊括了 国内财险和寿险业内的头部机构。此外，通知要求保险公司投资黄金的账面余 额不得超过公司上季末总资产的 1%，单一交易对手租借规模不得超过试点保险 公司持有的黄金现货合约的 20%。此外，还提出了一些监督管理事项，以控制 保险资金投资黄金的风险。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu987 ...