本报告导读： 受益于港股交投活跃度维持高位，保证金投资规模增长对冲收益率下降影响，港交 所四季度利润好于预期；港股市场扩容以及自身服务边界拓宽，港股市场 IPO 持续 活跃，提升港交所中长期盈利中枢。 交投活跃、投资收益好于预期，全年收入续创新高 香港交易所(0388) 香港交易所 2025 年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | | | 张轩铭(分析师) | 021-38038437 | zhangxuanming@gtht.com | S0880526020001 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 415.40 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | | | 投资要点： | 财 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][34]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 29.161 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.3%, and a net profit of HKD 17.754 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year, driven by increased trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market [1][8]. - The average daily trading volume (ADT) in the cash market reached HKD 231.5 billion in 2025, a significant increase of 92.9% year-on-year, highlighting the strong market demand [1][13]. - The company's EBITDA margin reached a historical high of 78.2%, and the annualized return on equity (ROE) rose to 31.7%, surpassing the previous peak in 2015, indicating robust operational efficiency and profitability [1][8]. Revenue Structure - The primary sources of revenue for the company in 2025 were trading fees and transaction system usage fees, which together accounted for 73.2% of total revenue, closely linked to market trading volumes [2][8]. - The southbound trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect) accounted for an average daily trading volume of HKD 121.1 billion, representing 26.2% of the overall daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market [2][13]. Market Context - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue attracting incremental capital, with a mix of challenges and opportunities for technology stocks [2][21]. - Despite a slowdown in initial public offerings (IPOs) since 2021, high-quality A-share companies have been listing in Hong Kong, injecting new vitality into the market [2][19]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on deepening connectivity, enhancing market vitality, exploring innovative businesses, and strengthening technological capabilities to maintain its competitive edge [3][24]. - Key initiatives include expanding the scope of the Stock Connect program and optimizing listing rules to attract quality assets and diverse investors [3][25]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 31.886 billion and HKD 34.302 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to reach HKD 19.984 billion and HKD 21.428 billion [4][24]. - The EBITDA margin is expected to remain above 70%, reflecting the company's high gross margin characteristics [24][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [1] Core Views - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, with record trading volumes across multiple markets [1] - In 2025, Hong Kong Exchanges achieved revenue of HKD 29.161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 17.754 billion, up 36% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2026-2028, projecting HKD 20.155 billion, HKD 21.786 billion, and HKD 23.707 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 15.91, HKD 17.17, and HKD 18.64 [4] Revenue Analysis - Trading fees in the cash market saw a significant increase, with average daily turnover reaching HKD 231.5 billion, a 93% year-on-year growth, and trading fee income rising by 87% [2] - The derivatives market reported a revenue increase of 11%, driven by a 55% rise in average daily turnover for structured products [2] - The LME (London Metal Exchange) achieved its best performance in history, with trading fees and settlement fees increasing by 11% and 12% respectively [2] Listing Fees - The primary market in Hong Kong was very active in 2025, with 119 new listings, an increase of 48 from the previous year, and a fundraising amount that grew by 226% [3] - Listing fee income in the derivatives market increased by 38%, attributed to a 50% and 27% rise in new listings of structured products and warrants respectively [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a net profit growth rate of 14%, 8%, and 9% for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 26, 24, and 22 times [4] - The expected revenue growth rates for the same period are 11%, 7%, and 8% [8]

FY26 中报业绩大幅增长，公司α持续验证 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 风险提示：宏观经济下行，产能投放低预期，原材料价格大幅波动等。 盈利预测： | [单位Table_Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 59,496 | 63,241 | 71,315 | 74,147 | 76,689 | | ） 增长率（ % | 4.9% | 6.3% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | | EBITDA | 6,106 | 7,785 | 9,070 | 9,762 | 10,305 | | 归母净利润 | 751 | 1,767 | 4,076 | 4,578 | 4,895 | | 增长率（ % ） | -131.5% | 135.4% | 130.7% | 12.3% | 6.9% | | EPS（元/股） | 0.16 | 0.38 | 0.87 | 0.98 | 1.04 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 18 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a net operating income of 15.4 billion RMB for Q4 2025, which is a year-over-year increase of 21%, exceeding expectations by 3.6%. Adjusted EBITDA was 3.4 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7.7% [7] - The company's internationalization strategy continues to drive growth, with a significant increase in international bookings, contributing to a revenue share of 18% in Q4 2025. The overall booking volume for the international OTA platform grew approximately 60% year-over-year [7] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its service offerings and improve transaction efficiency, positioning itself to capitalize on new distribution channels [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2026 estimated revenue of 71.68 billion RMB, 2027 estimated revenue of 81.87 billion RMB, and 2028 estimated revenue of 91.82 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 14.86%, 14.22%, and 12.15% respectively [6] - The projected net profit for 2026 is 16.37 billion RMB, with a significant drop in growth rate to -50.83%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 14.50% and 13.53% in 2027 and 2028 respectively [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 22.94 RMB in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.06 [6] Business Segment Performance - In Q4 2025, accommodation booking revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB, with significant growth in international flight bookings [7] - The company's travel vacation revenue was 1.1 billion RMB, also up 21% year-over-year, benefiting from the expansion of international services [7] - Business travel management revenue was 800 million RMB, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, primarily due to growth in corporate clients [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with a net win rate that exceeded expectations, leading to a total GGR growth of 14% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming the industry average of 6% [5][6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was HKD 4.4 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 3.6 billion, indicating robust operational efficiency [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the opening of the Capella hotel in February 2026, which is anticipated to enhance its high-end market position and drive steady growth in gaming revenue [5][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2025: HKD 49,242 million - 2026E: HKD 53,125 million (up 13.68%) - 2027E: HKD 57,896 million (up 7.89%) - 2028E: HKD 62,238 million (up 10.11%) [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025: HKD 10,674 million - 2026E: HKD 10,625 million (down 0.46%) - 2027E: HKD 11,753 million (up 10.62%) - 2028E: HKD 12,821 million (up 9.09%) [4]. - The report anticipates an adjusted EBITDA of HKD 159 billion for 2026 and HKD 174 billion for 2027, with a target price set at HKD 48.00 [9]. Market Performance - The company's GGR for Q4 2025 reached HKD 14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, recovering to 100% of the levels seen in Q4 2019 [6]. - The company’s EBITDA margin for Q4 2025 was reported at 33.4%, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency [5][6]. - The company hosted approximately 350 entertainment, sports, and exhibition events in 2025, contributing to increased foot traffic and customer engagement [5][7]. Non-Gaming Initiatives - The company is actively enhancing its non-gaming entertainment ecosystem, collaborating with leading global entertainment firms to host major concerts and events, which are expected to drive customer traffic and high-end spending [7]. - The Capella hotel opening is expected to further solidify the company's market share in the ultra-high-end segment [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 164.37 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong revenue growth of HKD 52.7 billion for FY1H26, representing a year-on-year increase of 32%. The core net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 12.2 billion, up 17% year-on-year, while the interim dividend per share (DPS) was HKD 0.98, a 3% increase from the previous year [1][2]. - The impressive growth in core net profit is attributed to several factors, including the release of profits from mainland property development, sales of investment properties in Hong Kong, and a reduction in interest expenses [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its land reserves in Hong Kong after reducing its debt levels, taking advantage of the recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The property development segment in Hong Kong saw a 30% decline in sales to HKD 17.4 billion, but subsequent sales from the SIERRA SEA Phase II project contributed HKD 9 billion. The company expects total sales for FY26 to reach HKD 35 billion [3]. - The rental segment demonstrated resilience, with rental income and profits remaining stable despite pressures in the commercial real estate market. The rental yield per square meter in Hong Kong and mainland China only saw a slight decline of 1% year-on-year [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for core net profit for FY26-28 is adjusted to HKD 23.3 billion, HKD 24.5 billion, and HKD 25.4 billion respectively, reflecting a 4% and 3% increase for FY26 and FY27, but a 6% decrease for FY28 due to adjustments in property price assumptions and rental yield expectations [5][34]. - The company’s net asset value (NAV) is estimated at HKD 635.1 billion, with a current share price reflecting a 38% discount to NAV. The target price is adjusted to HKD 164.37, considering the recovery trends in the Hong Kong real estate market [5][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with a net win rate that exceeded expectations, leading to a total GGR growth of 14% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming the industry average of 6% [5][6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was HKD 4.4 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 3.6 billion, indicating robust operational efficiency [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the opening of the Capella hotel in February 2026, which is anticipated to enhance its high-end market position and drive steady growth in gaming revenue [5][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2025: HKD 49,242 million - 2026E: HKD 53,125 million (up 8.69%) - 2027E: HKD 57,896 million (up 13.68%) - 2028E: HKD 62,238 million (up 7.89%) [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025: HKD 10,674 million - 2026E: HKD 10,625 million (down 0.46%) - 2027E: HKD 11,753 million (up 10.62%) - 2028E: HKD 12,821 million (up 9.09%) [4]. - The report anticipates an adjusted EBITDA of HKD 159 billion for 2026 and HKD 174 billion for 2027, with a target price set at HKD 48.00 [9]. Market Performance - The company's GGR for Q4 2025 reached HKD 14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, recovering to 100% of the levels seen in Q4 2019 [6]. - The company’s EBITDA margin for Q4 2025 was reported at 33.4%, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency [5][6]. - The company hosted approximately 350 entertainment, sports, and exhibition events in 2025, contributing to increased foot traffic and revenue [5][7]. Non-Gaming Initiatives - The company is actively enhancing its non-gaming offerings, aiming to position Macau as a hub for entertainment and sports, with plans for major concerts and events in 2026 [7]. - The Capella hotel opening is expected to further increase the company's market share in the high-end segment [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a net operating revenue of 15.4 billion RMB for Q4 2025, which is a year-over-year increase of 21%, exceeding expectations by 3.6% [7] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same quarter was 3.4 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, surpassing expectations by 7.7% [7] - The company's internationalization strategy continues to drive growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing by approximately 60% year-over-year [7] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance transaction efficiency and service quality, positioning itself for long-term growth [7] - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are estimated at 71.7 billion RMB, 81.9 billion RMB, and 91.8 billion RMB respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits of 19.1 billion RMB, 21.9 billion RMB, and 24.8 billion RMB [7] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects operating revenue of 53.3 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 19.73% [6] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 17.1 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 72.08% year-over-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 26.10 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.03 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected to be 11.97% [6] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue for Q4 2025 was 6.3 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings [7] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 5.4 billion RMB, with significant growth in international flight bookings [7] - The revenue from vacation services was 1.1 billion RMB, benefiting from the expansion of international services [7] - Business travel management revenue was 800 million RMB, primarily due to an increase in corporate clients [7]

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 27 年 月 日 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 鸣响渠道变革，忙驭万店星辰 核心观点：颠覆传统运营模式，牵引零售业态变革。鸣鸣很忙作为中国量 贩零食赛道龙头企业，牵引本轮折扣业态零售变革，从 2022 年零食很忙 门店数量破千，到 2025 年 11 月末鸣鸣很忙超 2.1 万家门店，高速扩店的 背后是对消费者性价比需求的满足、渠道供应链路的精简。2024 年鸣鸣 很忙达成 393.4 亿元营收，2 年 CAGR 达 203.0%，成为中国最大的休闲 食品饮料连锁零售商，2025 年前三季度营收进一步同比+75.2%至 463.7 亿元，净利润同比+218.8%至 15.6 亿元，带动净利率同比显著+1.5pct 至 3.4%，若加回股份支付费用，经调整净利率同比+1.9pct 至 3.9%。 行业变革：性价比优势立身，精细化运营谋远。中国零售业态持续高速迭 代，弱需求强供给背景下，当前渠道变革更往折扣化方向演变，量贩以" 上 游直采、集中议价、运营提效"重构供应链，率先实现性价比优势。行业 发展前半程，核心比拼扩店速度，经过跑马圈地、 ...