Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for HG Tech with a 12-month target price of Rmb54, indicating an upside potential of 43.9% from the current price of Rmb37.53 [11]. Core Insights - The significance of the 1Q25 earnings report is to alleviate concerns regarding the profitability of optical transceivers for domestic customers in China, with a pre-announced net profit range of Rmb390 million to Rmb440 million, translating to a 43% year-over-year increase [1][2]. - The strong profit forecast is attributed to the ramp-up of 400G optical transceivers driven by demand from China's cloud companies and equipment OEMs, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's performance in subsequent quarters [2]. - HG Tech is positioned as a key beneficiary of China's AI infrastructure investment, with limited exposure to tariff risks due to minimal sales to the US [3]. Revenue Mix and Market Segments - In 2024, the revenue mix for HG Tech is projected as follows: 30% from laser tools, 34% from networking (including optical transceivers), 31% from sensors, and 5% from other segments [8]. - The automotive market accounts for 60% of the revenue from sensors, with significant growth in orders for EVs (33% YoY) and shipbuilding tools (134% YoY) [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates ongoing product mix improvement in transceiver sales, particularly with the introduction of more 400G and 800G products, which is expected to drive margin expansion [2][9]. - Key questions for the upcoming earnings conference include the drivers behind the rebound in optical transceiver sales, progress on new products in the laser segment, and the outlook for 800G adoption in the China market [4].

Asia Pacific Equity Research 15 April 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. CATL Overweight 1Q25 a solid result; management sees strong demand despite US tariffs ▲ 1Q25 results were at the high end of JPMe. Management reaffirmed that order dem ...

Post Results Briefing Takeaway Key Takeaways April 14, 2025 03:19 PM GMT Zijin Mining Group | Asia Pacific 1Q25 recap: Zijin said higher management expenses YoY were due primarily to higher employee bonuses under good FY24 earnings. The gain from fair value is mainly from stock investments. Hedging policy: For smelting business, Zijin allows for 25% maximum net exposure for copper and zinc, and 50% net exposure for gold and silver. For mining business, the maximum hedging ratio is 8%. Zijin is slowing const ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and raises the target price to CNY 331, implying an upside of approximately 48% from the closing price of CNY 224 on April 14, 2025 [6][26]. Core Insights - CATL reported a revenue growth of 6% year-on-year to CNY 84.7 billion in 1Q25, despite an 18% quarter-on-quarter decline, attributed to lower product ASPs and a longer revenue recognition cycle in the ESS segment [1][2]. - The company's gross profit margin improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 24.4%, driven by lower material costs and effective cost control measures [1]. - Earnings grew by 33% year-on-year to CNY 14 billion, with a net margin expansion of 3.3 percentage points to 16.5%, primarily due to an improved margin profile and higher investment income [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, CATL achieved a gross profit of CNY 20.7 billion, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year, while operating income adjusted was CNY 11.8 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year [16]. - The company expects revenue for FY25 to reach CNY 423.6 billion, with a normalized net profit forecasted at CNY 64.5 billion, representing a 27.2% growth [5][17]. Market Position - CATL holds a 38% global market share in EV battery usage, with a 43% share in the European market, and anticipates further market share expansion in Europe due to product competitiveness and localized manufacturing [2]. - The German plant of CATL turned profitable in 1Q25, indicating successful operational strategies in the European market [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects a slight increase in FY25-27 earnings by 4.8-5.3%, reflecting a better margin profile and higher investment gains [4]. - The target price of CNY 331 is based on a 19x FY26F EPS of CNY 17.42, which is 1x standard deviation below the historical average forward P/E [4][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaming Power Equipment, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [6][27]. Core Insights - Huaming is expected to experience moderate net profit growth of 3% in 2025, driven by strong overseas revenues, while the 2026 net profit is projected to decrease by 1% due to lower domestic revenues [27]. - The company anticipates double-digit growth in overseas tap changer revenues in 2025, with indirect export revenue growth outpacing direct exports [2][9]. - Domestic tap changer revenues are expected to grow at a low single-digit rate of 0-5% in 2025, influenced by steady growth in the grid business and limited upside from non-grid sectors [3][20]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to increase from Rmb2,322 million in 2024 to Rmb2,518 million in 2025, reflecting an 8.4% growth [33]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 50.4% in 2025, with a slight increase in the contribution from high-margin products [2][31]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is Rmb690 million, with an expected net profit margin of 27.4% [26][33]. Financial Metrics - The report outlines key financial metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 18.6x and a P/B ratio of 4.0x for 2025, indicating that the stock is relatively inexpensive compared to its earnings potential [6][33]. - The expected dividend yield is 4.0%, with a payout ratio of 75% in 2025 [6][33]. Market Dynamics - Huaming's overseas revenue is expected to double from Rmb274 million in 2023 to Rmb549 million by 2027, highlighting the company's growth strategy in international markets [2]. - The company is almost immune to US tariff risks, as its revenue from the US is minimal, primarily from non-grid customers [4][11]. Strategic Initiatives - Huaming plans to repurchase shares worth Rmb150-200 million before February 2026, reflecting confidence in its financial position [3][22]. - The company is considering building a production line in the US to meet local demand, despite challenges posed by investment restrictions [12][18].

中金公司 电子掘金：对等关税下的中国硬科技突围 - 全球 布局+国产替代 20250413 摘要 Q&A 当前全球贸易摩擦和关税政策对中国电子制造业有何影响？ 目前全球贸易摩擦和关税政策对中国电子制造业的影响较为复杂。自 4 月 2 日 起，美国对中国进口商品实施了一系列关税加征措施，中国也在 4 月 2 日至 4 月 11 日期间出台了相应的反制措施。然而，4 月 12 日美国海关发布了最新的 豁免名单，对特定商品如智能手机、计算机交换机等免除了对等关税，使得适 • 美国海关最新豁免名单降低了对中国消费电子产品的关税至约 20%，缓解 了市场情绪，但未来政策仍具不确定性。关税政策短期内难以改变企业核 心竞争力，全球消费电子制造格局短期内难以完全迁移。 • 中国半导体设计企业对美国销售敞口较小，晶圆代工出口比例低，封测出 口比例相对较高，头部厂商已在东南亚等地多元化布局。关税反制加速国 产化，对半导体芯片及生产要素国产化有积极作用。 • 模拟芯片领域受益最大，国内厂商如盛邦股份、南新科技、思瑞浦等在消 费和工业料号上具备替代能力，但高端工业及汽车级产品仍依赖进口。国 际厂商降价对国产企业利润产生影响，关税反制 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the financial sector, with strong performance in credit and social financing data exceeding market expectations [2][3]. Core Insights - March financial data showed a total credit issuance of 3.6 trillion yuan, surpassing the market expectation of 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating stable demand from major projects despite weaker demand from SMEs and private enterprises [2][5]. - Social financing reached 5.9 trillion yuan in March, driven primarily by government bond issuance, which increased by 1 trillion yuan year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights a decline in non-bank deposits, which decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan, contributing to an overall reduction in deposits by 500 billion yuan [7][12]. - M1 growth improved to 1.6% in March, supported by increased demand for corporate current deposits due to debt swaps and major project initiations [10]. - The report notes that the U.S. banking sector faces challenges from rising interest rates and a potential stagflation environment, which could impact credit growth and asset quality, particularly for smaller banks [13][14]. Summary by Sections Credit Data - In March, credit issuance totaled 3.6 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from short-term corporate loans and long-term residential loans, although overall residential loans showed a slight decrease [5]. - The report indicates a declining trend in the real leverage level reflected by medium- and long-term loans since 2023, attributed to reduced borrowing willingness among residents [5]. Social Financing - Social financing in March reached 5.9 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations, with government bonds being the main contributor, while corporate bonds lagged due to interest rate adjustments [3][4]. Deposit Trends - March saw a year-on-year decrease in deposits by 500 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in non-bank deposits [7][12]. - The decline in non-bank deposits was linked to market volatility and redemption of financial products, which temporarily alleviated pressure on large banks [11][12]. Future Outlook - The report suggests uncertainty in future data, emphasizing the need to monitor government bond issuance and credit trends, as well as the impact of trade tensions and real estate policies on economic performance [6][16]. - It anticipates potential monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, to support financial data and banking performance amid external pressures [16][17]. Banking Sector Resilience - Chinese banks, particularly large listed banks, exhibit strong resilience with high provisioning coverage and ample financial resources to withstand additional losses [17][18]. - The report highlights that despite challenges in the U.S. banking sector, Chinese banks are less affected by external bond market fluctuations due to minimal exposure to foreign bonds [15][17].

中金公司 从美国看美国（20250413）- 关税加剧股债波动、 特朗普关税政策在过去一周内经历了多次调整。首先，他暂停了部分国家的关 税 90 天，但提高了对中国的关税，随后又宣布对一些半导体和消费电子产品进 行豁免。这些变化使得美国有效关税税率从去年（2024 年）的 2.4%大幅上升到 25%，在暂停其他国家关税并增加中国关税后进一步提升至 30.8%。电子产品豁 免后，计算结果显示降至 28.4%左右。虽然有所下降，但幅度并不大。 对于美 国经济指标，包括通胀和增长的影响，半导体和电子产品豁免预计可降低美国 CPI 约 0.2 个百分点，即从之前预期推高 2.3 个百分点降至 2.1 个百分点。这 • 美国有效关税税率大幅上升，从 2024 年的 2.4%增至 25%，增加中国关税后 达 30.8%，电子产品豁免后降至 28.4%，但对通胀的宏观影响有限，预计降 低 CPI 约 0.2 个百分点。 • 受关税政策冲击，美国资本市场出现剧烈波动，股市暴涨暴跌，VIX 指数 一度接近 60，高收益债利差显著上升，融资难度和违约风险增加，国债收 益率出现异常提升。 • 企业对未来现金流预期不确定性增加，导致 ...

中金公司 关税背景下如何看家电 20250408 摘要 Q&A 在关税冲击的背景下，家电公司对美收入和供应链敞口情况如何？ 对于家电行业，不同公司的对美收入和供应链敞口存在显著差异。以白电为例， 美的在 2024 年美国地区的收入占其整体外销收入约 20%，对应整体收入占比约 8%左右。这部分产能主要来自东南亚和国内。海尔美国市场的收入占比接近 60%，其中 60%由美国本土供应商提供，30%由墨西哥供应，其余不到 20%来自东 南亚和国内。格力在美国市场的收入占比很低，仅为 2%左右。海信家电在中个 位数左右，长虹美菱和 TCL 智家则为低个位数。 黑电方面，海信黑电的美国市 场收入占比约 10%-20%，主要由墨西哥供应。TCL 电子则有 20%的收入来自美国， 其中三分之一左右由墨西哥供应，其余大部分来自东南亚。 清洁电器领域，科 沃斯和石头科技在美国市场的收入占比分别为 15%-20%。科沃斯由于利润率较 高，对关税影响较敏感，而石头科技去年第四季度已承担了约 1 亿元人民币的 • 美国对中国家电加征关税将导致产品价格上涨，引发通胀，并可能影响需 求，但中国家电企业凭借供应链稳定性、订单灵活性和规模优 ...

Q&A 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响是什么？ 对等关税对农业板块的整体影响主要体现在粮价的短期冲击有限，聚焦粮食安 全和内需提振。大豆等主要农产品的贸易摩擦已经很难大幅推升粮食价格，因 为自 2018 年以来的产业链转移已显著提升应对农产品贸易冲击能力。农业板块 核心催化因素有两大主线：一是自主可控必要性进一步提升，保障粮食安全主 要抓手是种业振兴；二是在内循环重要性增强背景下，内需提振带来的畜禽产 • 中国农产品贸易应对能力显著提升，农业板块核心催化剂包括自主可控需 求驱动的种业振兴，以及内需提振带来的畜禽产品价格回暖预期，进而带 动产业链业绩反转。 • 种植链中，大豆、高粱价格小幅上涨，玉米基本面偏紧，库存消费比处于 十年低位，利好种植链业绩。种业振兴战略强化，生物育种技术储备领先 公司受益。 • 养殖链受贸易摩擦影响较小，内需提振直接拉动鸡肉、水产、猪肉价格。 美国祖代鸡引种暂停导致供给偏紧预期，餐饮需求复苏拉动鸡肉需求定价 边际好转。 • 消费链方面，常规代工短期利空，但全球布局优质产能代工利好，高端品 牌布局国货长期利多。进口宠物食品成本提升，国货龙头性价比凸显。 • 生猪供给持续增加，猪价易跌难涨 ...