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证券研究报告 | 2024年12月03日 名创优品（09896.HK） 优于大市 单季度毛利率创历史新高，四季度旺季有望实现业绩加速 受高基数影响公司单 Q3 收入增速略有放缓。公司前三季度实现营收 122.8 亿 /yoy+22.8% ， 经 调 净 利 润 为 19.3 亿 /yoy+13.7% ， 经 调 净 利 润 率 15.7%/yoy-1.3pct，剔除汇兑损益影响，经调整净利率为 15.9%/yoy-0.6pct。 单 Q3 实现收入 45.23 亿/yoy+19.3%，经调净利润 6.86 亿/yoy+6.9%，经调 净利润率 15.2%/yoy-1.7pct。由于去年同期爆款 IP 芭比公司收入高基数影 响，单 Q3 收入增速略有放缓，同时由于公司加速开拓直营门店导致利润率 有所下降。Q4 来看，预计收入整体同比增长 25-30%，其中海外实现同比增 速 45-50%；国内预计同比增长 10-15%；TOP TOY 延续 50-55%同比增速。 从名创中国业务来看，2024Q3 名创品牌国内实现收入 24.39 亿/yoy+5.7%， 新增门店 135 家至 4240 家。前三季度名创优品中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The brand's down jacket segment continues to lead strong revenue growth, with a focus on refined offline channel operations [3][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 8.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.130 billion yuan, up 23.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.06 HKD per share [1] Revenue Breakdown - The brand down jacket business generated revenue of 6.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, with the main brand contributing 5.280 billion yuan, up 19.4% [4][5] - The OEM processing business reported revenue of 2.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [4] - The women's clothing segment saw a revenue decline of 21.5% to 308 million yuan, while diversified clothing revenue increased by 21.3% to 117 million yuan [4] Channel Management - Self-operated channels generated revenue of 2.262 billion yuan, up 36.7%, while wholesale channels saw revenue of 3.429 billion yuan, up 12.6% [5] - Online channel revenue for the brand down jacket business grew by 24.1% to 1.351 billion yuan, accounting for 22.3% of the segment's total revenue [5] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.9%, with the brand down jacket business gross margin at 61.1% [6][8] - Operating profit margin improved by 0.2 percentage points to 16.7%, and net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 12.8% [8] - The average inventory turnover days increased by 29 days to 189 days, attributed to early raw material stocking and increased finished goods [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to leverage its strong supply chain capabilities to capitalize on the peak sales season for down jackets due to nationwide temperature drops [9] - The company continues to innovate product categories and enhance channel management, indicating strong growth potential [9] - EPS estimates for FY2025-2027 are projected at 0.32, 0.37, and 0.42 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.6, 10.1, and 8.8 times [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a record high revenue of 8.8 billion RMB for the first half of FY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, with net profit growing by 23.0% to 1.13 billion RMB [1] - The core business revenue increased by 22.7%, driven by the brand's down jacket segment, which achieved a revenue of 6.06 billion RMB [4] - The company has a strong brand presence and product development capabilities, leading to significant growth potential in the down apparel and summer product segments [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25 H1, the company achieved a revenue of 8.8 billion RMB, operating profit of 1.47 billion RMB, and net profit of 1.13 billion RMB, all marking historical highs [1] - The net profit margin for FY25 H1 was 12.8%, continuing its upward trend [1] Business Segments - The main brand's revenue increased by 19.4% to 5.28 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 66.3% [4] - The OEM processing business grew by 13.4% to 2.32 billion RMB, while diversified apparel business revenue rose by 21.3% to 117 million RMB [4] Market Performance - The company has implemented a Top Store model and enhanced online-offline collaboration, resulting in a 24.1% increase in online sales revenue for the down jacket segment [5] - The company ranked second in Tmall's women's clothing and men's clothing categories during the 2024 Double Eleven shopping festival [5] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.53 billion RMB, 4.15 billion RMB, and 4.83 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.94%, 17.38%, and 16.35% [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, citing its leadership in the internet and gaming sectors, and its potential to benefit from the continued growth of the gaming industry [1][95] Core Views - Tencent is China's largest social platform company, with a massive user base that provides a solid foundation for its various businesses As of Q2 2024, QQ has 571 million monthly active users (MAUs), while WeChat has 1 371 billion MAUs [1] - Tencent is a leader in China's gaming industry, with a 48 2% market share in 2023 The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the mobile gaming industry, which is projected to grow at 4 65%, 3 91%, and 3 30% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [1] - Video accounts are a key growth driver for Tencent's advertising business In Q2 2024, the company's online advertising revenue grew 19% YoY to RMB 29 9 billion, driven by video accounts and long-form video content [1] - Tencent is one of the duopolies in China's payment industry, with WeChat Pay and Alipay accounting for over 94% of the market share in Q3 2023 The third-party personal payment market is expected to grow at 10 8%, 9 7%, and 8 9% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [1] Business Segments Social and Communication - QQ and WeChat are Tencent's core social tools As of Q2 2024, QQ has 571 million MAUs, while WeChat has 1 371 billion MAUs [1][51] - Video accounts are a strategic growth area for Tencent, with significant user engagement and advertising revenue growth In 2023, video account advertising revenue exceeded RMB 3 billion in Q2, and the annual GMV surpassed RMB 100 billion [55][56] Gaming - Tencent is the leader in China's gaming industry, with a 48 2% market share in 2023 The company has over 170 self-developed and licensed games, including popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile" [1][65] - The mini-game market is growing rapidly, with 750 million active users in February 2024, accounting for 80 3% of the total traffic Tencent's mini-game revenue grew over 30% YoY in H1 2024 [1][65] Online Advertising - Tencent's online advertising revenue grew 22 65% YoY in H1 2024, driven by video accounts and long-form video content The company expects the online advertising business to grow at 19%, 21%, and 23% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [88][90] FinTech and Business Services - Tencent's FinTech and Business Services segment is benefiting from the growth of the third-party payment and cloud services markets The third-party personal payment market is expected to grow at 10 8%, 9 7%, and 8 9% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [76][77] - Tencent Cloud holds a 16% market share in China's cloud infrastructure services market in Q2 2024 The company is leveraging its AI capabilities, such as the Hunyuan large model, to attract more customers [81][82] Financial Performance and Valuation - Tencent's revenue grew 9 82% YoY in 2023 to RMB 609 015 billion, with a net profit of RMB 115 216 billion The company expects revenue to grow at 8 56%, 9 24%, and 10 13% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growing at 47 86%, 12 22%, and 13 13% respectively [2][95] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 18 38, RMB 20 63, and RMB 23 34 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE ratio of 20 16x, 17 96x, and 15 88x based on the closing price of HKD 402 80 on November 27, 2024 [95] Industry Outlook - China's mobile gaming industry is expected to grow at 4 65%, 3 91%, and 3 30% from 2024 to 2026, driven by the recovery of the economy and the normalization of game license approvals [68] - The online advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2029, with video accounts playing a significant role in driving Tencent's advertising revenue growth [73][74]

来源: 公司资料, 第一上海 来源: 彭博 波司登（3998.HK） 更新报告 24/25 上半财年维持高质量的业绩增长 2024/2025 上半财年业绩概览：截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的中期业绩，公司实现营业收入 88 亿元（人民币，下同）、同比增加 17.8%（主要受益于品牌羽绒服和贴牌加工管理业务 的良好增长）。毛利率比去年同期减少 0.1PCT 到 49.9%（主要受产品+品牌结构变化和羽 绒成本上升的影响）。经营利润率同比增长 19.6%到 14.7 亿元（受益于营运效率的提 升），撇除女装业务的经营利润增长 28.3%到 16.1 亿元。归母净利润 11.3 亿元、同比增 加 23%，归母净利率同比提升 0.5PCT 至 12.8%，拟派中期股息每股 6 港仙，派息比率为 57.9%。存货周转天数增加 29 天到 189 天；主要由于 1）集团提前进行原材料备货，2） 略提前生产致制成品增加，3）放缓上半财年给经销商的发货节奏和发货速度，希望在下 半年不确定的市场环境中以小单快反的供应链管理体系应对消费者需求。集团持有净现 金为 64.1 亿，资产负债水平健康。集团继续维持高质量的业绩增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 6.87, representing a potential upside of 35.2% from the current price of HKD 5.08 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in performance due to pressures in the pharmaceutical environment and proactive inventory reduction, with adjusted net profit down 15.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was HKD 22.69 billion, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, while gross profit was HKD 15.99 billion, with a gross margin of 70.5%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The report highlights a shift in the product pipeline, with older products facing revenue declines due to centralized procurement impacts, while new products are expected to drive future growth [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of HKD 3.88 billion, down 15.9% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 17.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the prescription drug segment generated HKD 18.67 billion, down 3.5%, while the functional food segment saw a significant decline of 21.9% to HKD 1.29 billion [2]. - Research and development expenses increased by 5.5% year-on-year to HKD 3.88 billion, representing 20.8% of the prescription drug revenue, up 1.8 percentage points [2]. Segment Performance - The report details various segments: - The neurology segment saw a revenue increase of 4.5% to HKD 7.23 billion, but experienced a significant drop of 15.8% in Q3 due to strict cost control measures [2]. - The oncology segment's revenue decreased by 31.2% in Q3, influenced by centralized procurement in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [2]. - The cardiovascular segment reported a decline of 11.1% to HKD 1.63 billion, with a notable drop of 26.7% in Q3 due to a lack of procurement success [2]. Pipeline and Future Outlook - The company is expected to rely on new product launches to drive growth, with anticipated contributions of approximately HKD 2 billion from innovative products in the coming year [2]. - The report mentions a significant licensing deal with AstraZeneca for a lipoprotein(a) inhibitor, which includes an upfront payment of USD 100 million and potential milestone payments of USD 1.92 billion [2].

SDICSI 2024 年 12 月 3 日 波司登 (3998.HK) 品类创新带来新增量，期待销售旺季表现 事件：近日，波司登公布 FY25H1 业绩，收入同比上升 17.8%，归母净利润同比 上升23.0%，好于预期。综合考虑，我们预测2025-2027财年EPS为0.32/0.36/0.41 元，给予公司 2024/25 财年 16 倍 PE，目标价 5.6 港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告摘要 收入快速增长，品类持续创新 截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日止，集团上半财年收入录 得 88.04 亿元，同比上升 17.8%，归母净利润录得 11.3 亿元，同比上升 23%，收 入和利润均取得亮眼增长，且利润保持快于收入的增速。 品牌羽绒服业务：收入同比增长 22.7%至 60.6 亿元，毛利率下滑 0.1pp 至 61.1%。 波司登主品牌录得收入 52.8 亿元，同比增长 19.4%，主要是新品类防晒衣和冲锋 衣羽绒服热销带动，毛利率同比提升 0.9pp 至 65.4%；雪中飞抓住中低端羽绒服 市场的机会，收入同比增长 47.1%至 3.9 亿元，毛利率同比提升 6pp 至 50.1%； 高性价比品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690) with a target price raised to HKD 220, reflecting strong performance and growth potential in core local commerce [2][26]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2024 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 936 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and operating profit of RMB 137 billion, resulting in an operating profit margin of 14.6% [5][26]. - The core local commerce segment continues to show profitability improvements, with revenue of RMB 694 billion in Q3 2024, up 20.2% year-on-year, and an operating profit margin increase to 21.0% [9][26]. - New business initiatives are showing signs of reduced losses, with new business revenue of RMB 242 billion in Q3 2024, up 28.9% year-on-year, and operating losses narrowing to RMB 10 billion [15][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 936 billion, surpassing the expected RMB 917 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 128 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of RMB 117 billion [5][26]. - The adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 grew by 134.8% and 124.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 145 billion and RMB 128 billion respectively [5][26]. Core Local Commerce - The core local commerce revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 694 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.3% [9][26]. - Instant delivery transactions reached 7.078 billion orders, with daily average orders at 78.64 million, reflecting a 14.5% year-on-year increase [9][26]. New Business Initiatives - New business revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 242 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2% [15][26]. - The company launched its food delivery platform Keeta in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as part of its ongoing international expansion efforts [15][26]. Market Position and Outlook - Meituan's competitive position in the local life services market remains strong, with expectations for continued growth in both food delivery and local services despite short-term macroeconomic challenges [26][12]. - The report anticipates that Meituan's business will continue to release operational profits, supported by improved governance and management focus on shareholder returns [26][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The management team has undergone a significant change, with the appointment of Huang Shaomei as the CEO, who has over 20 years of experience in the real estate sector. This leadership change is expected to enhance the company's operational capabilities in both Hong Kong and mainland China [2][6] - The company has maintained its profit forecasts, expecting net profits for FY2025-2027 to be HKD 370 million, HKD 600 million, and HKD 860 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.15, HKD 0.24, and HKD 0.34. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 44.7, 27.9, and 19.3 times [2][6] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 35.826 billion for FY2024, a decrease of 62% year-on-year, and a core operating profit of HKD 6.898 billion, down 18% year-on-year. The net profit for continuing operations was negative HKD 11.807 billion due to non-cash impairments and losses [2][6] Financial Summary - For FY2023, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 95.214 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 39.6%. However, for FY2024, the revenue is projected to drop to HKD 35.782 billion, reflecting a significant decline of 62.4% [8] - The net profit for FY2023 was HKD 4.081 billion, but it is expected to turn negative in FY2024 at HKD -17.126 billion, indicating a drastic year-on-year decline of 519.7% [8] - The gross margin for FY2024 is projected to be 35.9%, while the net margin is expected to be -55.1% [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to decrease from HKD 616.483 billion in FY2023 to HKD 445.158 billion in FY2024 [8]