煤炭/煤炭开采 电投能源（002128.SZ） 氧化铝价增致业绩同比承压，集团资产注入成长可期 2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 17.85 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 23.86/15.08 | | 总市值(亿元) | 400.12 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 400.12 | | 总股本(亿股) | 22.42 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.42 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 30.37 | 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 股价走势图 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 电投能源 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《煤电铝量增致业绩提升，关注煤铝 成长和绿电转型—公司 2024年报点评 报告》-2025.4.25 《Q3 业绩环比大增，关注分红提升和 绿 电 转 型 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.10.24 《煤铝电改善业绩向好，关注分红提 升和绿电转型—公司 2024年中报点评 报告》 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in crankshafts, with new growth avenues opened up by its ventures into the new energy and robotics sectors. The anticipated revenue growth is driven by the increasing demand for hybrid vehicles and the development of precision gears for electric drive systems [8][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Growth Potential - The company has been a leader in crankshaft manufacturing for 30 years and is expanding into new energy and robotics, with significant milestones achieved in recent years [8][13]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the hybrid vehicle market, with a projected 40% penetration rate for hybrid models in the new energy vehicle segment by 2024 [8][13]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 24.34 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 3.01 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.47 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan by 2027, indicating a robust financial outlook [8][13]. 3. Crankshaft Business Dynamics - The crankshaft business is expected to benefit from the rising demand for hybrid vehicles, with the company capturing over 50% of the crankshaft supply for BYD's hybrid models in 2024 [8][13]. - The company is set to launch a new production line capable of producing 1 million hybrid crankshafts by May 2025, further solidifying its market position [8][13]. 4. New Energy Gear Expansion - The company has invested 408 million yuan to develop precision gears for electric drive systems, with production expected to commence in July 2024 [8][13]. - The anticipated production capacity for these gears is 600,000 sets, which is expected to significantly contribute to revenue starting in 2025 [8][13]. 5. Robotics Sector Entry - The company has entered the robotics sector by acquiring a 35% stake in a robotics technology firm, aiming to leverage synergies with its existing automotive client base [8][13]. - The development of planetary gear reducers for robotics is underway, with initial prototypes successfully tested [8][13].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 恒林股份(603661) 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary]2024 年报&2025 一季报。2024 全年公司实现收入 110.29 亿 元（同比+34.6%），归母净利润 2.63 亿元（同比-0.02%），扣非归母净利润 2.81 亿元（同比+19.5%）；单 Q4 收入 32.18 亿元（同比+33.0%），归母净利润-0.03 亿元（23Q4 亏损 1.03 亿元），扣非归母净利润 0.16 亿元（23Q4 亏损 1.03 亿 元）。25Q1 收入 26.54 亿元（同比+12.7%），归母净利润 0.52 亿元（同比 -49.5%），扣非归母净利润 0.53 亿元（同比-48.9%）。Q4 利润承压主要系年末 资产&信用减值集中计提（合计损失约 2.1 亿），其中厨博士商誉减值为 0.79 亿 元（厨博士商誉已计提完毕）。我们预计 Q1 跨境电商扩张驱动收入稳健增长， 盈利能力环比已稳定修复。 跨境高增，基本盘稳定。24 年办公家居/软体家居/板式家居 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance due to falling coal prices and production volumes in Q1 2025, but it is expected to benefit from capacity expansion and high dividend payouts in the future [1][3] - The company reported a revenue of 9.14 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.04 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [1][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.34 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.61 billion yuan respectively, indicating a growth of 29.1%, 11.3%, and 8.1% year-on-year [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company produced and sold 18.07 million and 18.10 million tons of coal, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and 6.1% [1] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 427 yuan per ton, down 4.8% year-on-year, with a significant drop to 390.5 yuan per ton in Q1 2025, a decrease of 11.3% year-on-year [1] - The cost of coal production increased to 211.1 yuan per ton in 2024, up 12.8% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 costs at 227.7 yuan per ton, a 19.3% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 44.8%, with a projected gross profit margin of 50.1% for 2025 [4][7] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase its coal production capacity from 19.3 million tons per year to 30 million tons during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to be 63.63%, an increase of 15.17 percentage points year-on-year, translating to a dividend yield of 6.4% based on the closing price as of April 30, 2025 [1]

——公司 2025 年一季报点评报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2025/5/7 当前股价(元) 12.22 一年最高最低(元) 20.18/11.76 总市值(亿元) 329.12 流通市值(亿元) 329.12 总股本(亿股) 26.93 流通股本(亿股) 26.93 近 3 个月换手率(%) 38.73 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 淮北矿业 沪深300 煤炭/煤炭开采 淮北矿业（600985.SH） Q1 降本对冲煤价下滑影响，关注成长性及破净修复 2025 年 05 月 08 日 相关研究报告 《煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，关注成 长性及破净修复—公司 2024年报点评 报告》-2025.3.28 《Q3 煤炭量价齐跌拖累业绩，关注煤 矿+煤化工成长—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.30 《煤炭量价回落，关注煤矿和煤化工 项目成长—公司 2024 年中报点评报 告》-2024.8.30 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S079052 ...

洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 2025 年 05 月 07 日 云从科技 (688327) ——阶段性承压，大模型多标杆项目打造 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（下调） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 13.95 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 23.84/7.25 | | 市净率 | 13.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 10,513 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,342.67/10,104.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 1.00 | | 资产负债率% | 59.05 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,039/754 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - In 2024, the company's operating revenue is projected to be 24.06 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.69 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [5][10]. - For Q4 2024, the company anticipates operating revenue of 6.38 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 620 million yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year [5][10]. - The company is actively exploring emerging markets such as the Middle East, South America, and Southeast Asia to mitigate the impact of frequent U.S. tariff adjustments and the planned cancellation of the small package tax exemption policy [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the revenue from air express, ground comprehensive services, and integrated logistics solutions saw a year-on-year change of -8.8%, +8.0%, and +5.6% respectively [10]. - The gross profit for Q4 2024 is expected to be 1.28 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, with specific gross profits from air express, ground services, and integrated logistics at 450 million, 180 million, and 650 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -34.7%, -33.2%, and +36.7% respectively [10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.288 yuan per share for 2024, with a total dividend payout of 1.07 billion yuan, corresponding to a payout ratio of 40% [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market value of the company is below its replacement cost, indicating a more attractive valuation [10]. - If the pessimistic scenario is assumed where current freight rates drop to 2019 levels, the estimated net profit for 2025 would be approximately 2.02 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 9.5X [10]. - The estimated net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.02 billion, 2.29 billion, and 2.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.5, 8.4, and 7.3X [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 248.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.46% year-on-year [2][8] - The company's mineral resources business is developing steadily, with significant growth in overseas contracts despite a decline in new domestic contracts [8] Financial Performance - The company's Q1 revenue breakdown shows infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, and real estate development revenues of 216.796 billion, 4.67 billion, 6.246 billion, and 6.671 billion yuan respectively, with real estate development seeing a notable increase of 59.48% year-on-year [8] - The overall gross margin for Q1 was 8.46%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for different segments also declining [8] - The net profit margin for Q1 was 2.42%, down 0.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items was 2.23%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [8] Contract and Cash Flow Analysis - New contracts signed in Q1 totaled 560.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, with domestic contracts down 13.6% and overseas contracts up 33.4% [8] - The company experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of 77.399 billion yuan in Q1, an increase of 9.334 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 91.02%, down 7.51 percentage points year-on-year [8] Mineral Resources Development - The company operates five modern mines, producing significant quantities of various metals, including 288,252 tons of copper and 5,629 tons of cobalt, indicating a robust operational status [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in sales volume, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in Q1 2025. The production volume increased by 14%, and the sales volume grew by 27% due to a saturated order book and strong demand [13]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million, a year-on-year decrease of 32.78%, while the non-recurring net profit was 115 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 31.27% [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from internal cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, leading to a recovery in profit margins [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.815 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 137 million, down 32.78% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 115 million, up 31.27% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities turned negative due to increased procurement costs, indicating a strategic move to stock up on materials amid strong order demand [13]. Operational Insights - The company’s production and sales rates improved significantly, with a production and sales rate of 98%, leading to a notable increase in both production and sales volumes [13]. - The company’s gross profit per ton showed a year-on-year decline of approximately 120 yuan/ton, primarily due to a sustained decrease in steel prices over the past year [13]. Market Outlook - The company has a low market share of 5% in its sector, indicating potential for growth as it expands its market presence and explores overseas opportunities [13]. - The company is positioned to benefit from potential domestic demand stimulation policies, especially in the industrial construction sector, which constitutes 70% of its downstream demand [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company is at a confirmed operational turning point, with non-recurring net profits improving against the trend, indicating a positive outlook for mid-term performance [13]. - The company’s advancements in smart manufacturing technology are expected to enhance cost efficiency and production capacity, further supporting growth [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 68.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.841 billion yuan, down 3.54% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.608 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.84% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, the revenue was 25.927 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.06% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.342 billion yuan, down 7.54% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in Q4 was 1.310 billion yuan, an increase of 0.81% year-on-year [5][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company faced revenue pressure in 2024, with a total revenue of 68.816 billion yuan, down 7.28% year-on-year. The decline was attributed to decreases in both construction and operation business revenues. The company focused on high-quality regions, with the Yangtze River Delta region accounting for 78.93% of total revenue, an increase of 4.76 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. - The overall gross margin improved to 12.15%, up 1.85 percentage points year-on-year. In Q4, the gross margin was 12.99%, an increase of 5.37 percentage points year-on-year. The total expense ratio for the year was 8.94%, a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points [10][11]. Order Growth and Market Conditions - The company signed a total of 103.016 billion yuan in new orders for various construction, design, and operation businesses in 2024, representing an 8.01% increase year-on-year. This marked the first time the annual order scale exceeded 100 billion yuan, with municipal and energy engineering projects seeing year-on-year growth of over 30% [10][11]. Cash Flow and Investment Returns - The company's operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net inflow of 4.587 billion yuan, an increase of 1.409 billion yuan year-on-year. The cash collection ratio was 97.40%, up 3.28 percentage points year-on-year. In Q4, the net inflow was 3.181 billion yuan, with a cash collection ratio of 84.67%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points [10][11]. - Investment income supported the company's performance, with successful completion of capital increases and significant investment returns from companies like Huada Jiutian and Xugong Machinery. The company expects to see substantial cash inflow from upcoming projects, with a projected revenue and profit growth of 5-10% in 2025. The estimated dividend yield based on a 35% payout ratio is approximately 5.6% [10][11].