Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1] Core Views - JD Group is expected to see a revenue recovery driven by the "trade-in" policy, with a projected total revenue of 261.3 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - The report highlights that JD's retail revenue is anticipated to grow by 5.2% year-on-year to 223.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, benefiting from recent government stimulus policies and a recovery in consumer spending [4] - The Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 is projected to be 11.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin improvement to 4.5% [2] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for JD Group is forecasted to reach 1,139.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5% [6] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 36.5 billion yuan, indicating a 51% growth compared to the previous year [6] - The report projects a diluted EPS of 11.69 yuan for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17% [6][7] Retail Performance - JD Retail's revenue is expected to recover, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% to 223.1 billion yuan in Q3 2024, driven by the trade-in policy and a healthy growth in daily necessities [4] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) for JD Retail is projected to increase by 6% year-on-year [4] - The report notes that the 1P (first-party) revenue from electronic products is expected to grow by 2.2% to 121.9 billion yuan, while daily necessities are projected to grow by 8.4% to 82.4 billion yuan [4] Market Performance - JD Group has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with a 12-month performance of 58.8% compared to the index's 17.3% [3] - The current market capitalization of JD Group is approximately 464.97 billion HKD [3]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 天立国际控股（ 01773 ） | | 证券研究报告 \n2024 年 10 月 21 日 | | | 投资评级 | | | 多元输出业务持续丰满 | 行业 非必需性消费 | ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company's same-store sales for major brands (Tai Er, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu) showed double-digit declines in 3Q24, but the bottom of same-store performance has been confirmed [1] - Tai Er's average customer spending stabilized QoQ, while Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu brands saw narrowing declines [1] - The company is expected to benefit from cost-side improvements and potential demand recovery driven by macro stimulus policies [1] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 190 million, RMB 280 million, and RMB 330 million for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, with P/E ratios of 24X, 16X, and 13X [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be RMB 6,156 million, RMB 7,023 million, and RMB 7,904 million, with growth rates of 2.84%, 14.08%, and 12.55%, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be RMB 185 million, RMB 275 million, and RMB 334 million, with growth rates of -59.15%, 48.59%, and 21.33%, respectively [3] - ROE (attributable to the parent company) is forecasted to be 5.26%, 7.25%, and 8.09% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [3] Operational Highlights - Tai Er's same-store sales declined by 18.3% YoY in 3Q24, with a stable average customer spending of RMB 69 and a turnover rate of 3.6 times [1] - Song Hotpot's same-store sales declined by 32.5% YoY in 3Q24, with a narrowing decline of 4.1 percentage points QoQ and a turnover rate of 3 times [1] - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales declined by 10.3% YoY in 3Q24, with a narrowing decline of 2.3 percentage points QoQ and a turnover rate of 2.8 times [1] - The total number of Tai Er stores reached 654 by the end of 3Q24, with 642 directly operated stores and 12 franchised stores [1] - The total number of Song Hotpot stores reached 79 by the end of 3Q24, with 6 new stores added in Q3 [1] - The total number of Jiumaojiu stores remained unchanged at 72 by the end of 3Q24 [1] Future Outlook - The company expects cost-side improvements, particularly in labor and rental costs, to provide operational leverage [1] - The company anticipates demand recovery in Q4 due to lower YoY comparables and macro stimulus policies introduced since late September [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 5.50, which represents a potential upside from the current price of HKD 3.28 [34]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) software adoption, driven by national policies promoting digital transformation and the replacement of imported software with domestic alternatives [2][13]. - Cloud services have become a significant growth driver, with revenue from this segment growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50.7% from 2019 to 2023, and expected to continue increasing [10][18]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow by 20.7% in FY24 and 20.1% in FY25, with net profit expected to increase by 77.0% and 45.0% respectively during the same periods [2][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Cloud service revenue has significantly increased, from RMB 390 million in 2019 to RMB 2 billion in 2023, with its share of total revenue rising from 13.4% to 24.1% [10][11]. - The company’s management software revenue has also grown, albeit at a slower pace, indicating a shift towards cloud-based solutions [10]. - The company is leveraging synergies with its parent company, Inspur Group, to enhance its market position in the domestic ERP sector [2][13]. Industry Context - The domestic ERP market has a market share of nearly 70%, with major players including Yonyou, Inspur, and Kingdee, while high-end segments remain dominated by foreign firms [15]. - Recent government policies have accelerated the push for domestic software solutions, with a target for state-owned enterprises to fully transition to domestic products by 2027 [2][13]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 10 billion in FY24, with cloud services projected to contribute significantly to this growth [18]. - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to improve from 23.1% in FY23 to 26.4% by FY26, driven by the scaling of cloud services [18][31]. - The net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 357 million in FY24 to RMB 702 million by FY26, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [19][31]. Company Background - The company, established in 2003 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, has transitioned from hardware to software, focusing on ERP solutions and cloud services [21]. - It operates under the auspices of Inspur Group, which holds a significant stake, providing it with a strong resource base and market credibility [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a BUY rating for BaTeLab with an unchanged target price of HK$49.80, corresponding to a 20.4x 2024E P/E [2]. Core Insights - BaTeLab's management emphasizes the industrial market's lower R&D costs and long-tail characteristics, allowing for cost efficiency through proprietary EDA software and a reusable IP library [2]. - The company is focusing on patterned wafers, which are believed to provide higher marketing efficiency while keeping operational costs low [2]. - Management acknowledges concerns regarding high revenue reliance on distributor channels, stating that customer concentration is channel-specific and the actual customer base is diverse [2]. - Future revenue growth is expected to be driven by semiconductor localization, with plans to expand the product portfolio by approximately 100 SKUs annually [2]. - Management anticipates a gradual recovery in market demand and expects accelerated growth in the analog IC market over the next 5-10 years [2]. - The company's gross profit margin is projected to remain stable within the range of 53-55%, despite a lower-than-expected GPM of 51.3% in 1H24 due to increased inventory provisions [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 464 million in 2023 to RMB 650 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.2% [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 53.8% in 2024, down from 55.4% in 2023 [3]. - Operating profit is projected to increase from RMB 113 million in 2023 to RMB 154 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 36.1% [3]. - Net profit is anticipated to rise from RMB 146.3 million in 2023 to RMB 210.5 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.9% [3]. - The company reported a P/E ratio of 10.8x for 2024E, which is considered attractive compared to the industry [2][3]. Market Position - BaTeLab's market capitalization is approximately HK$396.8 million, with a current share price of HK$26.45, indicating an upside potential of 88.3% to the target price [4]. - The company has a diverse shareholding structure, with the largest shareholders holding 53.5% and 39.5% of the shares [4]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of -3.5% and a 3-month performance of 7.7% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main brands, including Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu, have maintained steady expansion, with a high likelihood of achieving the full-year expansion targets [2][4] - The company has adjusted its menu to offer more cost-effective products and optimized costs at both the store and headquarters levels, which could contribute to future growth [9] - The company's PE valuation for 2024 is around 20x, which is at the bottom of its historical range, indicating potential for strong profit elasticity if turnover rates improve [9] Expansion and Performance - As of Q3 2024, Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu had 654, 79, and 72 stores respectively, with Tai Er opening 68 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024 [2][4] - The company adjusted its full-year store opening plan for Tai Er to 93 stores (80 in mainland China and 13 overseas) and for Song to 25 stores, which is considered highly achievable [2][4] - The average customer spending per visit for Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu in Q3 2024 was 69, 97, and 54 yuan respectively, with Song experiencing a larger decline due to increased group dining during the summer [2][4] - The turnover rates for Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu in Q3 2024 were 3.6, 3.0, and 2.8 times respectively, showing marginal improvement compared to Q2 [2][4] - Same-store sales for Tai Er, Song, and Jiu Mao Jiu in Q3 2024 were -18.3%, -32.5%, and -10.3% respectively, indicating a bottoming out of the decline compared to Q2 [2][4] Brand Optimization and Innovation - The company has sold off non-core brands such as "Na Wei Da Shu Shi Da Chu" and "Lai Mei Li" to focus on its core brand portfolio [3][6] - Tai Er has opened over 30 "satellite stores" in cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Xiamen, with plans to expand further. These stores are compact, focusing on takeout services, and are expected to complement traditional mall stores [3][8] Financial Forecasts - The report revised the company's revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.315, 7.281, and 8.738 billion yuan respectively, with net profits adjusted to 219, 292, and 384 million yuan [9] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 20x, 15x, and 12x respectively, reflecting the impact of cost pressures and external operating environment challenges [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.30 [1] Core Views - The company's 1-9M24 revenue was HKD 4.534 billion (-4.7% YoY), with a net profit of HKD 919 million (-2.8% YoY) [2] - The decline in revenue was attributed to stable growth in the large infusion sector but was offset by the impact of centralized procurement on ASP and a one-time impact from a specific product [2] - The net profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points YoY due to optimized sales expenses [2] - The report expects the company's 2024 net profit to be HKD 1.35 billion, driven by seasonal demand in the large infusion sector and stabilized raw material prices [2] Large Infusion Sector - The large infusion sector generated HKD 2.97 billion in revenue (-1% YoY) in 1-9M24, with a 13.4% YoY increase in sales volume but a 12.7% YoY decline in ASP due to centralized procurement [3] - The sector is expected to grow steadily in 2024, with sales exceeding 2.2 billion bottles/bags, driven by seasonal demand, increased capacity utilization, and the expansion of high-margin products like peritoneal dialysis fluid [3] Raw Material Sector - The raw material sector reported HKD 598 million in revenue (-6.6% YoY) in 1-9M24, with caffeine prices stabilizing and azithromycin expected to see both volume and price increases in 2024 [4] - The ampoule sector saw a significant revenue decline (-30.5% YoY) due to a one-time impact but is expected to recover with HKD 700 million in revenue in 2024 [4] Solid Formulation Sector - The solid formulation sector achieved HKD 339 million in revenue (+5.3% YoY) in 1-9M24, with expected revenue of HKD 500 million in 2024 due to new product approvals and the deepening of the raw material/formulation integration strategy [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's 2024/2025/2026 EPS is forecasted to be HKD 0.46/0.53/0.59, with a target price of HKD 5.30 based on a 10x PE ratio for 2025 [5] - Revenue is expected to grow from HKD 6.528 billion in 2024E to HKD 8.386 billion in 2026E, with net profit increasing from HKD 1.354 billion in 2024E to HKD 1.744 billion in 2026E [1][5] - ROE is projected to remain stable around 18.45%-18.84% from 2024E to 2026E [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company has successfully navigated through various phases of the cosmetics industry over the past 20 years, demonstrating resilience and adaptability [5]. - The company is recognized as a leading domestic multi-brand cosmetics enterprise, with significant growth potential driven by its core brand, Han Shu [5][7]. - The report projects revenue growth rates of 56.6%, 75.9%, 27.9%, and 19.1% for the years 2023 to 2026, respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Company Development Overview - The company has evolved through several key phases, including brand inception, television shopping, focused marketing, multi-brand development, and recent shifts towards e-commerce [5][15]. - The founder, Mr. Lv Yixiong, has played a crucial role in the company's strategic direction and market positioning, leveraging insights from market trends and consumer behavior [5][15]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4,191 million, 7,370 million, 9,425 million, and 11,227 million yuan from 2023 to 2026, respectively [1]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 461 million, 896 million, 1,161 million, and 1,368 million yuan for the same period [1]. - The report suggests that the company's earnings per share will increase from 1.16 yuan in 2023 to 3.44 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 33, 17, 13, and 11 [1]. Brand Performance - Han Shu has become the primary revenue driver, contributing approximately 84% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, up from 32% in 2019 [7][8]. - The company has successfully repositioned its brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics, particularly focusing on online sales channels [5][7]. Market Positioning - The company has established a strong foothold in the domestic cosmetics market, ranking among the top five domestic brands by retail sales from 2015 to 2021 [5]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on the mid-range price segment, targeting consumers in lower-tier cities, which has differentiated it from international competitors [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong performance and growth potential [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of $100 million for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of over 335% [5] - Full-year revenue for 2024 is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected growth rate of over 20% [5] - The company's EGO brand has shown strong performance, contributing significantly to profit growth [5] - Online channel revenue is growing rapidly, with Amazon driving significant growth, and is expected to reach double-digit revenue share in 2024 [5] - The company is expanding its distributor network in North America and adjusting distribution policies in Europe, which is expected to improve gross margins [5] - Q3 2024 gross margin is expected to improve year-on-year due to the strong performance of the high-margin EGO brand, production scale recovery, and low raw material costs [5] - Downstream retailer inventories have returned to healthy levels, supporting growth in shipments [5] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be $1.655 billion, $1.922 billion, and $2.198 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.4%, 16.1%, and 14.4% [5] - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be $131 million, $150 million, and $178 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.1% and 18.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 32.7% in 2024, compared to 28.1% in 2023 [4][5] - Adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 7.9%, 7.8%, and 8.1% for 2024-2026, respectively [4][5] - ROE is expected to increase to 12.3%, 12.7%, and 13.4% for 2024-2026, respectively [4][5] Market Data - The company's closing price on October 17, 2024, was HKD 21.3, with a total market capitalization of HKD 10.9 billion [3] - Total assets were $1.94 billion, with net assets attributable to the parent company at $982 million [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be $0.28, $0.32, and $0.38, respectively [4][5] Operational Highlights - The company is focusing on optimizing operational efficiency and controlling management expenses while steadily investing in marketing and R&D [5] - The company's OPE and power tools are benefiting from downstream retailers' restocking cycles, which are expected to align with POS growth rates in Q4 2024 [5] - The EGO brand is expected to outperform industry averages despite weak downstream demand [5]

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading Biopharma in China, transitioning successfully from Biotech to Biopharma with 11 approved products and a robust pipeline in oncology, immunology, metabolism, and ophthalmology [2] - The oncology segment is a key driver, with a strategy combining IO (Immuno-Oncology) and ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) to solidify its leadership position [2] - Non-oncology pipelines, particularly in cardiovascular, metabolic, and autoimmune diseases, are expected to open new growth curves [3] - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2024-2026 revenue estimates of 8.094 billion, 11.327 billion, and 14.551 billion RMB, respectively, representing a CAGR of 30.43%, 39.94%, and 28.46% [3][6] Oncology Segment - The company's PD-1 inhibitor, Sintilimab, is the only PD-1 drug in China that covers first-line treatment for five major cancer types and is included in the national medical insurance [2] - The company is advancing its IO+ADC strategy with promising candidates like IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2), IBI343 (CLDN18.2 ADC), and IBI389 (CLDN18.2/CD3 bispecific antibody), which show potential in overcoming immune resistance and treating cold tumors [2] - IBI363, a PD-1/IL-2 bispecific fusion protein, has shown promising efficacy and safety in clinical trials, particularly in treating immune-resistant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and melanoma [23][29][34] Non-Oncology Segment - The company's GLP-1R/GCGR dual-target drug, Mazdutide, is a key growth driver, with NDA submissions for obesity and type 2 diabetes in 2024 [3] - In the autoimmune space, the IL-23p19 inhibitor, IBI112, has shown potential as a best-in-class drug for psoriasis, with its NDA submitted in September 2024 [3] - In ophthalmology, IBI311 (IGF-1R) for thyroid eye disease (TED) has submitted its NDA in May 2024, giving the company a first-mover advantage [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 8.094 billion RMB in 2024 to 14.551 billion RMB in 2026, with a DCF-based valuation of 93.9 billion RMB, equivalent to 101.5 billion HKD [3][6] - The company is projected to achieve profitability by 2025, driven by its diversified product portfolio and operational efficiency improvements [6][8] Key Catalysts - The commercialization of Mazdutide in 2025 is expected to be a significant growth driver, leveraging the large market potential for GLP-1 drugs in China [3][8] - The advancement of IBI363 in clinical trials and its potential for global expansion could further enhance the company's oncology portfolio [2][29] - The company's focus on operational efficiency and commercialization capabilities is expected to drive sustained growth [6][8]