Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][18]. Core Views - The report highlights the official release of HarmonyOS NEXT (pure Harmony) and the dual-driven growth of the Harmony ecosystem through both pure and open-source Harmony, which is expected to drive performance growth [4][5][18]. - The report emphasizes the significant market potential for pure Harmony, with the company being a diamond service provider for native Harmony application development and training, benefiting from the ecosystem's expansion [4][11][18]. - The report notes the recovery of Huawei's smartphone market share, which is accelerating the development of the Harmony system, making it the second-largest operating system in China [6][9][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been involved in the development of the Harmony operating system since 2012 and became one of the first HarmonyOS development service providers in March 2024, with over 50,000 certified Harmony engineers and more than 7,000 native Harmony applications and services launched [11][18]. Market Trends - The report discusses the transition to an interconnected world, with the number of global IoT device connections expected to reach 24.6 billion by 2025, indicating a shift from mobile devices to a broader range of smart devices [6][8]. Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 18.03 billion, 20.20 billion, and 22.29 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 5.3%, 12.0%, and 10.3% [4][18]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 721 million, 866 million, and 1.09 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 17, and 13 times [4][18]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has a deep partnership with ShenKaiHong, focusing on developing industry solutions based on open-source Harmony, which is expected to gradually release performance [13][14][18]. Technological Innovations - The report outlines three core technological concepts of the Harmony system: "one-time development, multi-end deployment," "modular and flexible integration," and "unified ecosystem with native intelligence," which enhance user experience across various scenarios [8][9][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175.HK) with a target price range of HKD 16.5-18.9, compared to the current price of HKD 13.90 [1][5][9]. Core Views - Geely's electric and intelligent transformation is accelerating with the launch of the Zeekr MIX, which targets young families seeking innovative and spacious electric vehicles. The estimated market potential for this model is around 500,000 units annually [1][5]. - The report anticipates significant growth in Geely's sales and profitability over the next few years, driven by the introduction of new models and the company's strategic resource allocation [1][5]. - The expected sales volume for Geely from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 2.17 million, 2.55 million, and 2.86 million units, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 29%, 17%, and 12% [1][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: HKD 179.2 billion - 2024E: HKD 237.3 billion (32.4% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 296.1 billion (24.8% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 340.6 billion (15.0% YoY growth) [1][6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: HKD 5.2 billion - 2024E: HKD 15.1 billion (191.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 11.8 billion (-21.4% YoY decline) - 2026E: HKD 15.1 billion (27.2% YoY growth) [1][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024E: HKD 0.51 - 2025E: HKD 1.49 - 2026E: HKD 1.18 [1][6]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024E: 8.9 - 2025E: 11.3 - 2026E: 8.9 [1][6]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2024E: 1.7 - 2025E: 1.4 - 2026E: 1.2 [1][6]. Market Positioning - Geely is positioned to benefit from its comprehensive resource layout in global operations, self-developed intelligent driving, and chip technology, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (9901.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of $1.435 billion for Q1 FY2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.5%, with a net profit of $245 million, up 48.4% year-over-year [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q1 was $300 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22.6% [1] - The non-selective business revenue grew by 33.5% year-over-year, indicating strong performance in new business segments [1] - The company expects Q2 non-selective business revenue to increase by 25-28% year-over-year, aligning with previous expectations [1] - The company has a robust expansion plan, with a target of increasing offline teaching points by 20-25% throughout the year [1] - The report forecasts non-selective business revenues for FY2025-2027 to be $4.416 billion, $5.536 billion, and $6.697 billion respectively, with Non-GAAP operating profits of $539 million, $731 million, and $938 million [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 FY2025 total revenue: $1.435 billion, up 30.5% YoY - Net profit: $245 million, up 48.4% YoY - Non-GAAP operating profit: $300 million, up 22.6% YoY [1] Business Segments - Non-selective business revenue: $1.278 billion, up 33.5% YoY - Growth in new business segments, particularly non-academic courses and intelligent learning systems [1] Future Outlook - Q2 revenue guidance for non-selective business: $851.4 million to $871.8 million, up 25-28% YoY - Continued growth expected in new business segments and stable performance in core education services [1] Expansion Strategy - Offline teaching points increased to 1,089, with a quarterly growth of 6% - National network advantages are strengthening with significant presence in major cities [1] Earnings Forecast - Projected adjusted EPS for FY2025-2027: $0.34, $0.44, and $0.55 respectively - Corresponding P/E ratios: 18x, 14x, and 11x [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso [2] Core Views - The report anticipates that overseas agency growth will exceed expectations in Q3 2024, while domestic performance may be slightly weaker than expected. The continued expansion of overseas stores is expected to contribute positively in Q4 [2] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the company for 2024-2026 have been lowered to 2.751 billion, 3.342 billion, and 4.023 billion HKD respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.869 billion, 3.448 billion, and 4.132 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 47.40 HKD from 49.60 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The report estimates an overall revenue growth of approximately 18.3% for Q3 2024, translating to an expected revenue of about 4.484 billion HKD. Domestic revenue growth is projected at around 7.0%, while overseas direct and agency market growth rates are expected to be 55% and 28% respectively [2] - The contribution of high-margin overseas direct business is expected to increase, leading to improvements in gross margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] Store Expansion - The company is expected to add over 100 new stores domestically and 150-200 stores overseas in Q3 2024, aligning with the annual store opening plan of 350-450 domestic stores and 550-650 overseas stores [2] - The launch of Harry Potter IP co-branded products is anticipated to drive sales in both domestic and overseas markets, enhancing the willingness of franchisees to open stores and agents to purchase products [2] Profitability Outlook - The report suggests that the overall gross margin is likely to improve due to the increasing proportion of high-margin products and the release of operational leverage as overseas direct business performance improves [2] - The expected sales and management expense ratio for Q3 2024 is projected at 26.10%, with an adjusted net profit margin of approximately 15.5%, leading to an adjusted net profit of about 694 million HKD [2]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 商业贸易 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 24 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 2.76 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7359.14 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 6.96/2.11 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 171.15 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,201.22 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0899 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -51% -1% 49% HSCEI 滔搏 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 (8621)23 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) with a target price of HKD 88 10 [1] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue exceeded market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 120%-125% Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60% while overseas revenue surged by 440%-445% [1] - The company's overseas expansion is accelerating with new stores opened in key markets such as South Korea Italy the Netherlands France and the US contributing to revenue growth [1] - Pop Mart's core IPs like MOLLY SKULLPANDA DIMOO and The MONSTERS continue to drive product innovation and sales growth [1] - The company's online revenue particularly through platforms like TikTok Shop and Tmall has shown significant growth with TikTok Shop achieving a record single-session sales of USD 280 000 [1] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's total revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 12 253 million a 93 1% increase from 2023A [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 2 711 million in 2024E up 150 5% from 2023A [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve to 66 3% in 2024E from 61 3% in 2023A [6] - EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0 80 in 2023A to RMB 2 02 in 2024E [2] Market Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue growth is driven by both store expansion and improved store efficiency with the number of overseas stores expected to reach 130-140 by the end of 2024 [1] - The company's strategy of localizing products and adopting a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model has been effective in penetrating international markets [1] Product and IP Strategy - Pop Mart continues to innovate with new IPs such as OIPIPPI Nyota CHAKA inosoul and POLAR which have contributed to revenue growth [1] - The company is expanding its product categories including building blocks and exploring new business areas like theme parks and games to enhance the value of its core IPs [1] Valuation and Projections - The report forecasts Pop Mart's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 2 711 million RMB 3 601 million and RMB 4 458 million respectively [1] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 34 5x in 2024E to 21 0x in 2026E reflecting strong earnings growth [2] Key Financial Metrics - Pop Mart's total assets are projected to grow from RMB 9 969 million in 2023A to RMB 23 348 million in 2026E [6] - The company's operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly from RMB 1 991 million in 2024E to RMB 3 644 million in 2026E [6] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 14 7% in 2023A to 29 7% in 2024E indicating improved profitability [6]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for TCL Electronics (01070) [1] Core Views - TCL Electronics' global TV shipments in Q3 2024 reached 7.49 million units, a YoY increase of 19.7%, with Q1-Q3 global shipments at 20.01 million units, up 12.9% YoY [1] - MiniLED TV shipments surged 163% globally, benefiting ASP growth [1] - Domestic shipments in Q3 increased by 5%, while overseas shipments grew by 24% [1] - MiniLED domestic shipments in Q1-Q3 rose 181% YoY, with a significant 6.9 percentage point increase in market share [1] - Overseas MiniLED shipments in Q1-Q3 grew 145% YoY, with Europe leading at 36% growth, followed by North America at 8% and emerging markets at 6% [1] - Panel price pressures are expected to ease, with 55-inch and 65-inch panel prices stabilizing in Q3 2024, supporting margin improvement [1] - Profit forecasts have been revised upward, with expected revenue of HKD 95.5/107.8/119.9 billion for 2024-2026, and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.35/1.65/2.0 billion [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at HKD 95.476 billion, a 21% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach HKD 1.35 billion, up 81% YoY [3] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 4.45% in 2023A to 7.66% in 2024E and 8.78% in 2025E [3] - EPS is expected to grow from HKD 0.31 in 2023A to HKD 0.54 in 2024E, HKD 0.65 in 2025E, and HKD 0.79 in 2026E [3] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 18.05% in 2024E, with net profit margin improving to 1.41% [5] Market and Operational Trends - TCL Electronics has shown strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with significant contributions from MiniLED technology [1] - The company's dual-brand strategy (TCL + Leihua) has been effective in maintaining market share and driving growth in domestic markets [1] - Overseas markets, particularly Europe and North America, have shown robust growth, with North America experiencing a turnaround in Q3 2024 [1] - Cost pressures from panel price increases are expected to ease, supporting profitability improvements [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 20% above the current price of 15.5 HKD [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in retail sales across offline channels, while e-commerce sales are showing growth. The total number of sales points has increased to 6,281, with a net addition of 42 points in the last quarter [2][3]. - A joint venture has been established to develop and operate the Li Ning brand outside mainland China, with a total capital of 200 million HKD. This move aims to enhance brand reputation and leverage cross-border resources [4]. - Supply chain integration has improved efficiency and product quality, with a focus on digital management and cost control strategies [5]. - Innovations in retail channels and logistics management are enhancing product turnover and distribution efficiency [6]. Summary by Sections Basic Data - Total shares outstanding: 2,584.48 million - Total market capitalization: 40,059.45 million HKD - Net asset value per share: 10.98 HKD - Debt-to-asset ratio: 27.10% - 1-year high/low price: 31.65/12.56 HKD [1]. Sales Performance - As of Q3 2024, retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) have decreased, with offline channels seeing a significant drop. E-commerce, however, has shown a positive trend [2][3]. Joint Venture Development - The joint venture aims to expand the Li Ning brand internationally, with significant cash contributions from various partners, ensuring a majority stake for Li Ning Group and its founder [4]. Supply Chain and Efficiency - The company has expanded its supply chain capacity, enhancing overall efficiency and product quality through strict supplier selection and digital management [5]. Retail and Logistics Innovations - The logistics management platform is improving, with new logistics centers set to enhance product flow and distribution efficiency [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][24]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of the fiscal year 2025, with revenue down 7.9% year-on-year to 13.05 billion yuan and net profit down 34.6% to 870 million yuan, primarily due to weak macro demand and reduced offline foot traffic [3][24]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a strong cash flow, with operating cash flow net amounting to 2.61 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, supporting a high dividend payout ratio of 99% [3][24]. - The company is optimistic about future performance as it anticipates a recovery in consumer demand and adjustments from downstream clients, which could lead to a return to growth [3][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of fiscal year 2025 decreased by 7.9% to 13.05 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 34.6% to 870 million yuan [3][24]. - The gross profit margin declined by 3.7 percentage points to 41.1%, influenced by increased discount rates and a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale channels [3][24]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, now expecting net profits of 1.44 billion, 1.79 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision [3][24]. Business Model Analysis - Retail and wholesale channels saw declines of 8.9% and 2.2% respectively, with online retail outperforming offline, as the share of direct online sales increased to 30% [3][24]. - The company closed over 300 stores in the first half of the fiscal year, reducing the total number of stores to 5,813, a decrease of 396 year-on-year [3][24]. Market Position and Strategy - The company continues to focus on improving store efficiency and has implemented stricter standards for new store openings and renovations [3][24]. - Membership numbers have increased, with a total of 81 million members contributing 93.7% of sales, indicating strong customer loyalty and potential for future sales growth [3][24]. Valuation - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 3.80 - 4.00 HKD, down from the previous range of 6.80 - 7.20 HKD, reflecting the revised profit forecasts [3][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 3.07, representing a potential upside of 11.2% from the current price of HKD 2.76 [1][9]. Core Insights - Despite a year-on-year decline of 34.7% in net profit for 1HFY25, the company reported a 2.5% increase in operating cash flow, with a free cash flow to net profit ratio rising to 2.8x compared to 1.8x in 1HFY24, indicating strong operational capabilities and cash flow management [1]. - The management has provided a cautious full-year guidance for FY25, expecting a high single-digit decline in revenue and a net profit drop of 35%-45%, which is more severe than the decline observed in 1HFY25 [1][7]. - The company is facing significant short-term inventory and discount pressures, with management noting that retail discounts have deepened more than in the first half of the year due to ongoing challenges in foot traffic [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 27,073 million, which is expected to decline to RMB 26,653 million in FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [3][4]. - The net profit for FY2023 was RMB 1,837 million, projected to drop to RMB 1,380 million in FY2025, indicating a significant year-on-year decline of 38% [3][4]. - The operating profit margin is expected to decrease from 9.0% in FY2024 to 6.5% in FY2025, highlighting the pressure on profitability [4][6]. Operational Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities, successfully managing to maintain stable expense ratios despite a significant drop in net profit, which has allowed for an increase in dividend payout ratios [1][7]. - Management emphasizes that the current guidance is based on conservative estimates, suggesting that actual performance may exceed these projections due to potential positive factors not included in the guidance [1][7]. Market Context - The report indicates that the overall industry demand remains uncertain, with increased competition in the high-end sportswear market posing additional challenges [1][7].