2025 年 3 月 30 日 公司研究 24H2 收入增长提速，全年分红比例提升 ——卫龙美味（9985.HK）2024 年年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：14.16 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 23.51 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 332.92 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 4.81/14.76 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 11.30% | 股价相对走势 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 24/03 24/04 24/05 24/06 24/07 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 卫龙美 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][14] Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in 2024, with total revenue reaching 94.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.8%. Product revenue was 82.28 billion yuan, up 43.6% year-on-year, and the company reported a Non-IFRS net profit of 3.32 billion yuan, marking a 164.4% year-on-year improvement [6][9] - The company maintains a strong growth trajectory, with a target of 20 billion yuan in revenue by 2027, supported by the robust performance of its leading product, Sintilimab (PD-1), and the rapid commercialization of new products [7][9] - The company plans to accelerate its pipeline development, aiming to have five innovative products enter global Phase III clinical trials by 2030, indicating strong potential for international expansion [7] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit of 79.12 billion yuan, a 56.1% increase year-on-year, and a net loss of 0.95 billion yuan, which represents a 90.8% reduction in losses [6][9] - The company's financial projections for 2025 to 2027 indicate a steady increase in revenue and profitability, with expected net profits of 1.62 billion yuan in 2025, 11.29 billion yuan in 2026, and 27.21 billion yuan in 2027 [6][9] - Key financial ratios show an improvement in profitability, with a projected net profit margin of 14.6% by 2027 and a return on equity (ROE) of 18.4% [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Viewpoints - The company, UBTECH, is a leading player in the domestic intelligent service robot sector, focusing on humanoid robots with a stable revenue growth from 2020 to 2023, although it has not yet achieved profitability due to high expense ratios [3][6] - The humanoid robot market presents vast opportunities, with diverse industrial and consumer applications, supported by favorable domestic policies and advancements in technology [3][7] - UBTECH has launched a full-size humanoid robot and is actively exploring various application scenarios, positioning itself to benefit from the ongoing industrialization of humanoid robots [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - UBTECH is a leading company in the robot body field, recognized for its comprehensive technical capabilities in humanoid robots, including hardware and control technologies, AI integration, and a robust research and development framework [15][17] - The company has accumulated 2,450 patents related to robotics and AI, with a focus on industrial manufacturing, commercial services, and home companionship [15] Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 740 million to 1.056 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.55%. In the first half of 2024, revenue reached 487 million, a year-on-year increase of 86.58% [6][20] - The company has maintained high expense ratios due to significant R&D investments, resulting in a net loss of 516 million in the first half of 2024, although profitability is expected to improve [20][24] Product Development - The product mix has improved, with significant growth in consumer-grade robots and logistics robots, contributing to revenue growth. In 2023, logistics robots generated 390 million, accounting for 36.9% of revenue, while consumer-grade robots contributed 254 million, representing 24.0% [20][23] - The company aims to enhance its product offerings, with a focus on improving the profitability of consumer-grade and educational robots [24] Market Trends - The global humanoid robot market is rapidly evolving, with significant advancements expected by 2025, when mass production is anticipated. The market is characterized by increasing industrial and consumer applications [7][30] - Domestic policies are actively promoting the development of humanoid robots, with various innovation centers established across China to support research and application [41][42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 3.40 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to narrow its losses in 2024, with a forecasted revenue increase of 20.5% to HKD 5.492 billion, while the net loss is projected to be HKD 1.39 billion, a reduction of 18.1% year-on-year. The company aims to achieve profitability by 2025 [1][4]. - The recovery in passenger traffic is ongoing, with a 16.4% year-on-year increase in passenger throughput in the second half of 2024, reaching 34.67 million, which is 68% of the levels seen in 2019 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on cost control and operational efficiency, which is expected to contribute positively to its financial performance in the coming years [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a revenue of HKD 5.492 billion, a 20.5% increase from the previous year, while the net loss was HKD 1.39 billion, down 18.1% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw a net loss of HKD 1.013 billion, compared to HKD 655 million in the same period of 2023 [1][2]. - The operating costs in the second half of 2024 decreased by 6.3% to HKD 2.956 billion, primarily due to a reduction in franchise management fees [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit of HKD 743 million in 2025, following a net loss of HKD 1.39 billion in 2024. The revenue is projected to grow to HKD 6.101 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11.08% increase [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive in 2025, with a forecast of HKD 0.02, and further increase to HKD 0.10 in 2026 [5][20]. Valuation Metrics - The target price has been slightly adjusted to HKD 3.40 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.4% [4][6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to improve significantly from a negative 8.76 in 2024 to 25.95 in 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance in revenue recognition with an increase in gross profit margin despite a slight decline in profit mainly due to impairment losses [6][7] - The company is expected to recover its profitability quickly, supported by a high proportion of new land reserves and a steady increase in market share [6][8] Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 142.99 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the net profit was 4.80 billion HKD, a decrease of 4.6% [7][10] - The gross profit margin improved to 13.3%, up by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [7][10] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.2 HKD per share, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 52% [7] Market Position and Strategy - In 2024, the company achieved sales of 133.5 billion HKD, ranking 7th in the industry, with a focus on acquiring quality land in core cities [8] - The company’s land acquisition amounted to 55.6 billion HKD, with a land acquisition intensity of 41.6% and a focus on first and second-tier cities [8] Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 5.30 billion, 5.73 billion, and 5.86 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.85, 3.08, and 3.15 HKD [6][10] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.7, 5.3, and 5.2 times [6][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance in revenue recognition with an increase in gross profit margin despite a slight decline in profit mainly due to impairment losses [6][7] - The company is expected to recover its profitability quickly, supported by a high proportion of new land reserves and a steady increase in market share [6] - The company’s sales ranking has improved against industry trends, focusing on acquiring quality land in core cities [8] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 1429.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while net profit was 48.0 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.6% [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 13.3%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.85, 3.08, and 3.15 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 5.7, 5.3, and 5.2 times [6][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company achieved a sales amount of 1335 billion yuan in 2024, ranking 7th in the industry, with a focus on high-quality land in first and second-tier cities [8] - The company’s land acquisition in 2024 amounted to 556 billion yuan, with a land acquisition intensity of 41.6% and an equity ratio of 80% [8] - As of the end of 2024, the total value of the company’s land reserves was 2210 billion yuan, with a high proportion of new land acquired since 2022 [8] Property Management - The company’s property management segment is stable, with a contracted area of 1.09 billion square meters and a collection rate of 94% [9] - The average financing cost has decreased to 3.56%, reflecting a 19 basis point reduction year-on-year [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175.HK) with a target price range of HKD 23.86 to HKD 28.63, indicating a potential upside of 43% to 71% from the current price of HKD 16.70 [1][8]. Core Insights - Geely's electric transformation is progressing rapidly, with a comprehensive layout in AI ecosystems. The company reported a sales volume of 2.18 million vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Revenue reached CNY 240.2 billion, up 34% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 16.6 billion, reflecting a significant increase of CNY 11.3 billion [1][4]. Sales and Profitability - In Q4 2024, Geely's sales reached 690,000 vehicles, marking a 29% increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 17.3%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the quarter was CNY 3.6 billion, an increase of CNY 1.12 billion year-on-year [2][3]. Brand Performance - The main brand, Geely, saw a sales increase of 2.3% year-on-year in Q4, while the new energy brand Galaxy experienced a remarkable growth of 110% year-on-year. The net profit from the main brand was CNY 3.4 billion, up CNY 1.3 billion year-on-year [2][3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts Geely's sales to reach 2.74 million vehicles in 2025, with expected growth rates of 26%, 18%, and 16% for the following years [4][9]. The company plans to launch several new models across its brands, including five new energy vehicles under the Galaxy brand and five new models under Zeekr and Lynk & Co [8][9]. Financial Outlook - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 from CNY 13.6 billion and CNY 17.1 billion to CNY 14.8 billion and CNY 20.8 billion, respectively. The projected net profit for 2027 is CNY 25.7 billion, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.5x, 7.5x, and 6.0x for the respective years [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 278.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.0%. The development business contributed 237.15 billion yuan, growing by 11.8%, while recurring income reached 41.65 billion yuan, up by 6.6% [1]. - The company has become a leader in domestic commercial operations, with its "Wanda" shopping centers contributing significantly to stable cash flow and valuation differentiation. In 2024, rental income from shopping centers, offices, and hotels was 19.4 billion, 1.88 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan respectively, with shopping centers opening 16 new locations [1]. - The comprehensive gross profit margin for 2024 was 21.6%, with the development gross margin declining by 3.9 percentage points to 16.8% due to industry downturns, while the property business gross margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 70.0% [2]. - The company ranked third in sales with a contracted amount of 261.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% year-on-year, and a market share of 2.70% [2]. - The company has maintained a healthy leverage level with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.6% and a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 31.9% [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.58 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year, while core net profit was 25.42 billion yuan, down 8.5% [2]. - The company’s financing cost was 3.11%, which is among the lowest in the industry, benefiting from its state-owned enterprise background [3]. - The asset management scale reached 462.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.6 billion yuan, supported by the establishment of dual REITs platforms [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 274.66 billion, 279.27 billion, and 264.68 billion yuan respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 26.00 billion, 26.46 billion, and 26.57 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.772 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 4.278 billion CNY, narrowing from a loss of 6.440 billion CNY in the previous year [4][6] - The growth in generative AI revenue was 103.1% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the previous expectation of 100%, while traditional AI revenue declined by 39.5% [6] - The company is transitioning successfully to generative AI, with this segment accounting for 63.7% of total revenue [6] - The company is expected to release version 6.0 of its generative AI model in Q2 2025, focusing on enhancing multimodal understanding and interaction capabilities [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 5.138 billion CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36% [5] - The adjusted net loss for 2025 is projected to be 3.540 billion CNY, with a gradual reduction in losses expected in subsequent years [5][7] - The company maintains a high R&D investment, with R&D expenses accounting for 109.5% of sales in 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of high-quality residential demand, with a projected revenue of 1429.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. However, the net profit is forecasted to decline by 4.6% to 48 billion yuan [3][6]. - The company has a healthy land reserve structure and is actively expanding its land acquisition, ranking first among the top 50 real estate companies in terms of land acquisition sales amount and area in 2024 [6][7]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout, with a dividend of 1.2 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend rate of 52% based on net profit after deducting perpetual bond interest [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024 Revenue: 1429.9 billion yuan, up 6.4% YoY - 2024 Net Profit: 48 billion yuan, down 4.6% YoY - Projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5.8%, 5.2%, and 4.7% respectively [5][11]. - Profitability Metrics: - Gross Margin: 13.3% in 2024, up 2.2 percentage points YoY - Net Margin: 4.5% in 2024 - Return on Equity (ROE): 12.8% in 2024, declining gradually to 10.1% by 2027 [5][11]. - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.3 for 2024, decreasing to 5.9 by 2027 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 0.8 in 2024 to 0.6 in 2027 [5][11]. Operational Insights - The company has a total land reserve value of 2210 billion yuan, with approximately 80% of the projects acquired since 2022 [6][7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core product offerings, particularly in competitive markets like Hangzhou, where it has established several benchmark projects [6][7].