Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 78.47 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a milestone of 1,000 stores by Q4 2024, indicating strong growth potential and improved profitability due to economies of scale [2][4]. - The major shareholder, Domino's Pizza LLC, is selling 10 million shares, which is 7.66% of the issued share capital, but this is not expected to negatively impact the company's operations or franchise relationships [2][3]. - The company has shown resilience with a positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters, and the membership base has reached 21.7 million, contributing to demand growth [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - As of September 30, 2024, the company operates 978 stores, with a net increase of 210 stores in the year and 64 stores in Q3 [4]. - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability with positive adjusted and net profit in the first half of 2024 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 40.80 billion, RMB 53.69 billion, and RMB 68.24 billion respectively, with a significant growth rate of 33.73% in 2024 [6][12]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.81, RMB 1.40, and RMB 2.54 for 2024-2026 [5][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 2.3x for 2024, reflecting a premium due to the company's strong growth prospects [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 9.003 billion, with a closing price of HKD 69.00 as of October 17, 2024 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][7]. Core Views - The major shareholder, Domino's Pizza LLC, sold 10 million shares, representing 7.66% of the company's equity, to improve liquidity while still expressing confidence in the company's long-term growth [2]. - The company reported significant financial improvements, with a revenue of 2.04 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a 48% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 50.89 million RMB, marking a turnaround from losses [2]. - The company is on track to exceed 1,000 stores by the end of 2024, with a projected growth rate of over 30% year-on-year in store count [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue growth rates are projected at 40.37% for 2024, 26.71% for 2025, and 28.01% for 2026, with expected revenues of 4.28 billion RMB, 5.43 billion RMB, and 6.95 billion RMB respectively [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 19 million RMB in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 199 million RMB by 2026 [5]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 1.1 billion RMB in 2024, 1.6 billion RMB in 2025, and 3.2 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1145%, 50%, and 95% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price raised to HK$17.68 from HK$15.79, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$14.00 [1][5]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to see a continued improvement in profit margins, with a projected increase of 2.1 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 65% in Q3 2024 [1]. - Revenue growth for Q3 2024 is anticipated to be slightly below previous forecasts due to a weak macroeconomic environment, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company’s gross margin is projected to rise to 10.0% in Q3 2024, up from 7.9% in Q3 2023, driven by operational efficiencies and cost control measures [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 178,442 million, reflecting a 7.1% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 4,291 million, representing a 116.1% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 0.68, up from RMB 0.61, marking a 12.5% increase [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers is expected to grow by 7.6% in 2024, while revenue from related parties is projected to increase by 6.0% [2]. - The contribution from JD Group is anticipated to be RMB 53,067 million in 2024, while revenue from other sources is expected to reach RMB 125,375 million [2]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a discount of 21% to the adjusted target price, with a P/E ratio of 18.7 for 2024 and a CAGR of 20.5% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company has announced an investment in the Canadian luxury down jacket brand Moose Knuckles, which has established 36 stores in China, North America, and Europe, and is distributed through renowned retailers such as Harrods and Saks Fifth Avenue [5]. - The acquisition aims to create a multi-brand group, leveraging the company's resources to enhance Moose Knuckles' development in the Chinese market, while also expanding its overseas business in the future [5]. - Short-term retail data is favorable, with Moose Knuckles expected to contribute to growth through high-priced sunscreen clothing and strong sales in the shell jacket segment [5]. - The company is adjusting its product structure flexibly, with strong sales performance in functional products and a positive outlook for offline sales growth due to recent consumption policies and nationwide cooling [5]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 is expected to be 3.6 billion, 4.1 billion, and 4.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 13%, and 12% [6]. - The estimated P/E ratios for the same periods are 13, 12, and 11 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 retail operational data, showing approximately 10% year-on-year growth in offline large-scale sales and children's clothing sales, with e-commerce sales growing over 20%, aligning with expectations [5][6]. - The company experienced steady sales growth with stable discount inventory levels, expecting a discount rate of around 71% and a stock-to-sales ratio of 4.5 to 5 months [5]. - Continuous product iteration and channel structure upgrades were noted, with new outdoor running shoes and professional racing shoes launched between July and September [5]. - The company anticipates strong performance in the upcoming seasonal order meeting, with replenishment orders indicating sustained consumer recognition of products [5]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.09 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios significantly lower than other sports goods companies [5][8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Q3 2024 offline large-scale sales and children's clothing sales both grew by approximately 10% year-on-year, while e-commerce sales increased by over 20% [5]. - The overall inventory discount level is stable, with an expected discount rate of around 71% [5]. Product Development - New products launched include outdoor running shoes and professional racing shoes, enhancing consumer perception [5]. - The number of large-scale and children's clothing stores is expected to slightly increase, with improvements in store area [5]. Financial Projections - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 10.018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [8]. - Expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.09 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 7.16, 6.33, and 5.72 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15 HKD, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 660 million USD in September 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with cumulative revenue reaching 6.1 billion USD, up 1.5% year-on-year [1]. - The manufacturing segment showed significant growth, with monthly revenue increasing by 26.7% year-on-year and cumulative revenue up by 9% [1]. - The report highlights a strong operational signal from the monthly data, suggesting positive order performance and an optimistic view for Q4 2024, as the company recovers from previous pandemic impacts and inventory adjustments [1]. - Adidas has raised its full-year revenue guidance to 10% growth, which is expected to positively impact the company's order expectations as a key supplier [1]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.65 billion USD, 9.645 billion USD, and 10.935 billion USD for FY24-26, with net profits of 380 million USD, 420 million USD, and 460 million USD respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In September 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 660 million USD, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2024 was 6.1 billion USD, reflecting a 1.5% increase [1]. - The manufacturing business saw a monthly revenue increase of 26.7% year-on-year and a cumulative increase of 9% [1]. Operational Outlook - The report indicates that the monthly data shows strong operational signals, with expectations for positive order performance and a favorable outlook for Q4 2024 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from Adidas's raised revenue guidance, which is anticipated to enhance order expectations [1]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to generate revenues of 8.65 billion USD, 9.645 billion USD, and 10.935 billion USD for FY24-26, with corresponding net profits of 380 million USD, 420 million USD, and 460 million USD [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.24 USD, 0.26 USD, and 0.29 USD for the respective years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8X, 7X, and 6X [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company shows robust fundamentals and improved liquidity following a major shareholder's reduction in holdings, which is expected to enhance trading liquidity and attract long-term investors [4][3]. - The company has consistently achieved positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters since the current management team took over in Q3 2017 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 42.35 billion, 53.65 billion, and 67.83 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 39%, 27%, and 26% respectively [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.10 billion, 1.56 billion, and 2.59 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 1156%, 42%, and 66% respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the adjusted net profits are projected to be 75x, 53x, and 32x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. Operational Highlights - As of Q3 2024, the company operates 978 stores, with a net increase of 146 stores in H1 2024 and 64 stores in Q3 2024, achieving its annual opening target [4]. - The company plans to open approximately 300 to 350 new stores in 2025 and 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has established significant self-research capabilities in both hardware and software, enhancing its product lineup and opening growth opportunities through international expansion [3][4] - The company has formed a joint venture with Stellantis to facilitate its global strategy, leveraging Stellantis' extensive distribution network [3][4] - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching 299.06 billion RMB in 2024, 542.03 billion RMB in 2025, and 799.32 billion RMB in 2026 [4][34] Summary by Sections 1. Self-Research and Product Development - The company, founded in 2015, has developed comprehensive self-research capabilities in core technologies for electric vehicles, including the production of key components and cloud-based solutions [3][8] - The product matrix includes five pure electric models and four extended-range models, with significant delivery growth from 1.7 thousand units in 2021 to 17.3 thousand units in the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 94.6% [8][12] 2. Revenue Growth and Financial Performance - The company’s revenue has increased from 631 million RMB in 2020 to 16.75 billion RMB in 2023, with a 52.16% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024 [12][13] - The net loss has narrowed from 5.11 billion RMB in 2020 to 2.21 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, indicating improving financial health [12][13] 3. Market Expansion and Sales Network - The company has rapidly expanded its sales network from 49 stores in 2019 to 560 stores by 2023, covering 182 cities [16][17] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 60.1% by 2026, indicating a favorable market environment for the company [18][19] 4. Strategic Partnerships and Globalization - The partnership with Stellantis involves a joint venture, with Stellantis holding 51% and the company holding 49%, aimed at expanding into international markets [11][30] - The company plans to establish 500 sales points in Europe by the end of 2025 and expand into Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and South America starting in the fourth quarter of 2024 [31][32] 5. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve vehicle sales of 250,000 units in 2024, 440,000 units in 2025, and 630,000 units in 2026, with a corresponding increase in average selling price [33][34] - The projected price-to-sales ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.17, 0.65, and 0.44 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The recent shareholding structure update is expected to improve liquidity and broaden the shareholder base without affecting the company's fundamental operations [3]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, achieving positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters and plans to exceed 1,000 stores by November [3]. - The company is at a profit inflection point, with significant market penetration opportunities remaining [3]. Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,051 million RMB in FY2023 to 6,907 million RMB in FY2026, with growth rates of 51.0%, 40.2%, 27.6%, and 26.5% respectively [4][10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 9 million RMB in FY2023 to 269 million RMB in FY2026, reflecting growth rates of 1,151%, 45%, and 68% [4][10]. - Adjusted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.07 RMB in FY2023 to 2.06 RMB in FY2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 939 to 31 [4][10]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve from -0.87% in FY2023 to 2.59% in FY2026 [10]. Operational Performance - The company has maintained a net profit margin of 0.5% and an adjusted net profit margin of 2.5% for the first half of FY2024, with a store operating profit margin of 14.5% [3]. - Membership has grown to 21.7 million, indicating strong customer engagement [3]. Shareholder Structure - Domino's Pizza LLC has reduced its stake from 13.87% to 6.21% through an off-market block trade, while committing to a 90-day lock-up on the remaining shares [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong (6055 HK) [1][4] Core Views - China Tobacco Hong Kong is positioned as the key platform for China Tobacco's overseas expansion, with its importance significantly increasing in the context of domestic tobacco growth slowing down and the necessity of going global [1][14] - The company is transitioning from a tobacco trader to a tobacco producer, with potential for asset injections from its parent company, China Tobacco, which could drive future growth [1][4] - The global tobacco market is undergoing a transformation towards new tobacco products (e g, heated tobacco), and China Tobacco Hong Kong could leverage this trend through acquisitions and market entry strategies [1][36] Industry Analysis - China's tobacco tax revenue accounted for approximately 7% of fiscal revenue in 2023, leading to a conservative policy stance on new tobacco products domestically [1][5] - In contrast, developed markets like the US and EU have seen a decline in tobacco tax revenue as a percentage of fiscal revenue (0 5%-1%), with ESG considerations becoming a priority, leading to more favorable policies for new tobacco products [1][5] - China's strong government execution and centralized regulatory framework have resulted in stricter controls on new tobacco products compared to overseas markets [1][11] Company Analysis - China Tobacco Hong Kong's revenue and profit in 2023 were RMB 11 8 billion and RMB 600 million, respectively, with a market cap of RMB 12 1 billion as of October 16, 2024, significantly lower than global tobacco giants [1][14] - The company's current profits are largely derived from business transfers from China Tobacco, including tobacco leaf import/export and duty-free cigarette exports [1][14] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by its tobacco leaf import, cigarette export, and new tobacco export businesses, with projected revenue of HKD 13 58 billion, HKD 15 24 billion, and HKD 17 01 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [44][46] Valuation and Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of HKD 850 million, HKD 990 million, and HKD 1 152 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14x, 12x, and 11x, indicating significant valuation upside compared to global peers [1][4] - The company's valuation is attractive compared to global tobacco giants like Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco, which trade at average P/E multiples of 18x, 18x, and 17x for 2024-2026 [47][48] Strategic Opportunities - China Tobacco Hong Kong could benefit from global geopolitical shifts and the "Belt and Road" initiative, providing opportunities for market entry and expansion in emerging markets [36][37] - The company is expected to accelerate its overseas expansion through acquisitions of production capacity, distribution channels, and brands, particularly in the taxed cigarette market [1][4]