Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - JD Group is expected to report strong revenue and profit performance for Q3 2024, with revenue projected to reach 259.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The Non-GAAP net profit margin is anticipated to improve by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the national subsidy policy for trade-in programs, which was officially issued at the end of August 2024. Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted slightly downward by 0.1% for each year, while adjusted net profit forecasts have been reduced by 9% for 2024 and 2025, and by 8% for 2026 [6][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Q3 2024 revenue is expected to be 259.6 billion yuan, with JD Retail revenue growth at 5%. The growth in the electronics category is expected to turn positive, and the daily necessities category is projected to grow in the high single digits. The POP model is expected to grow faster than the market average [3][4] - The company is maintaining disciplined spending, which has enhanced its bargaining power and led to a recovery in gross margins. This is expected to drive adjusted net profit growth of 6% year-on-year [4][6] Market Dynamics - The GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is expected to see high single-digit growth in Q3, primarily driven by the trade-in program for electronics. The number of active merchants is expected to maintain double-digit growth, and the number of active purchasing users is projected to grow in double digits year-on-year [4][6] Financial Adjustments - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1,134.2 billion yuan, 1,201.6 billion yuan, and 1,280.9 billion yuan respectively. The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 41.9 billion yuan, 46.9 billion yuan, and 52 billion yuan respectively [6][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 228, implying a potential upside of 24.2% from the current price of HKD 183.60 [1][2] Core Views - Meituan's profit growth trend is expected to remain sustainable, leading to an upward revision of 2025 profit forecasts and target price [1] - The company is expected to report a 21% YoY increase in total revenue for Q3 2024, slightly above Bloomberg/Visible Alpha (VA) consensus of 20% [1] - Net profit is projected to surge 98% YoY to RMB 11.4 billion in Q3 2024, with a net margin of 12.3%, outperforming Bloomberg/VA expectations of 106%/109% growth [1] - Local commerce (CLC) is expected to grow 20% YoY, with delivery order volume up 14%, revenue up 18%, and profit up 36% [1] - In-store, hotel, and travel (IHT) business is forecasted to grow 20% in revenue and 32% in profit, with a margin of 35% [1] - New businesses are expected to grow 25% YoY, with quarterly losses narrowing to RMB 1.86 billion [1] Financial Projections - Local commerce revenue is projected to grow 21% in 2024 and 18% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 30% and 27%, respectively [2] - IHT revenue is expected to accelerate, growing 23% in 2024 and 30% in 2025, with adjusted operating profit increasing 20% and 33%, respectively [2] - New business losses are expected to narrow further in 2025, following a trend of reduced losses in H2 2024 [2] - Adjusted net profit growth is forecasted at 78% in 2024 and 25% in 2025, with a 2025 PEG ratio of 1x and a P/E of 25x [2] Industry Position - Meituan maintains a leading position in China's instant retail and delivery industry [2] - The company's food delivery business, despite high online penetration, continues to meet diverse user needs through products like "Pinhao Fan" [2] - Flash delivery faces competition but has significant market potential, with scale effects and category diversification being key to monetization [2] - Local life services market competition is largely under control, with emerging industry investments still in early stages [2] Financial Data Highlights - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 276.7 billion in 2023 to RMB 420.2 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 23.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 59.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 3.71 in 2023 to RMB 9.59 in 2026 [3] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 45.1x in 2023 to 17.5x in 2026, reflecting improving profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrates resilience during the downturn, with expectations for a bottoming out in sales during the National Day holiday period, which exceeded expectations [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates across its various brands, with a notable performance from the main brand and a healthy inventory level [2][3] - The report anticipates that e-commerce sales will outperform offline sales, continuing a trend of over 20% growth [2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 53,651 million - 2023A: 62,356 million (growth rate: 16%) - 2024E: 70,710 million (growth rate: 13%) - 2025E: 79,308 million (growth rate: 12%) - 2026E: 88,319 million (growth rate: 11%) [2][3] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 7,590 million - 2023A: 10,236 million (growth rate: 35%) - 2024E: 13,530 million (growth rate: 32%) - 2025E: 14,166 million (growth rate: 5%) - 2026E: 15,974 million (growth rate: 13%) [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 2.68 - 2023A: 3.62 - 2024E: 4.78 - 2025E: 5.01 - 2026E: 5.65 [2][3] - **Cash Flow**: - 2023A: 6.94 - 2024E: 3.75 - 2025E: 4.67 - 2026E: 5.91 [2][3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 24% - 2024E: 23% - 2025E: 20% - 2026E: 18% [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - Anta Sports is focusing on multi-brand operations to cover segmented users and enhance domestic product capabilities, capitalizing on emerging sports trends [2] - The company is expected to continue improving its channel reform and customer targeting strategies, particularly through the Super Anta and Champion stores [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining stable discount levels and improving online sales channels [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company has launched a new generation of professional sun protection clothing, enhancing its summer performance for the new fiscal year with features such as UPF100+ and improved breathability [3] - The introduction of multiple product lines, including the "叠变" series, has initiated the peak season sales, supported by strategic collaborations and marketing events [4] - The strategic investment in the Canadian luxury down jacket brand MooseKnuckles marks a significant step in expanding the company's international presence and core business focus [5] - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 263 billion, 297 billion, and 335 billion for the fiscal years ending March 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [5][10] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 23,214 million in FY2024, with a year-on-year growth of 38.39%, and net profit of 3,074 million, reflecting a growth of 43.74% [6][10] - The forecast for FY2025 and FY2026 shows continued growth in both revenue and net profit, with expected revenues of 26,272 million and 29,688 million, and net profits of 3,544 million and 4,066 million, respectively [6][10] Strategic Initiatives - The collaboration with renowned designers and participation in high-profile events have significantly increased brand visibility and market engagement [3][4] - The acquisition of MooseKnuckles is aimed at enhancing the company's product offerings and expanding its market reach, particularly in Asia [5] Financial Projections - The company is projected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio exceeding 80% over the next three fiscal years, indicating strong cash flow and shareholder returns [5] - The estimated P/E ratios for the upcoming fiscal years are 13.7, 11.9, and 10.5, suggesting that the stock is currently undervalued [5][10]

买入（维持） 股价（2024年10月15日） 47.45 港元 目标价格 60.47 港元 52 周最高价/最低价 63.45/37.55 港元 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） 431,585/356,986 H 股市值（百万港币） 204,787 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒 报告发布日期 2024 年 10 月 16 日 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% -9.96 24.38 -0.84 -25.16 相对表现% -7.05 7.4 -13.62 -39.22 恒生指数% -2.91 16.98 12.78 14.06 项雯倩 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 李雨琪 021-63325888-3023 liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 快手 3Q24 前瞻：流量端稳健增长，内容 和商业化均衡发展 核心观点 ⚫ 整合内容与商业资源、奥运转播效应助推平台 DAU 和时长预计环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.15 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4] Core Views - The company has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with AstraZeneca for the global development, manufacturing, and commercialization of its Lp(a) inhibitor YS2302018 The deal includes a $100 million upfront payment, up to $370 million in potential development milestone payments, and up to $1.55 billion in potential sales milestone payments, along with tiered royalties [2] - YS2302018, a small molecule Lp(a) inhibitor developed using the company's AI-driven drug design platform, shows promising preclinical results with excellent pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety Lp(a) is a potential target for lipid management, and multiple therapies, including siRNA, ASO, and small molecule inhibitors, are under development globally [2] - The company is accelerating its internationalization efforts, with over 2,000 R&D personnel and eight major technology innovation platforms, including nanomedicine, siRNA, and ADC In H1 2024, R&D expenses reached RMB 2.542 billion, accounting for 18.8% of pharmaceutical revenue The company has over 130 innovative drug projects in its pipeline, with nearly 50 new products/indications expected to be submitted for approval in the next five years [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 30.937 billion in 2022 to RMB 38.991 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.9% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 6.091 billion in 2022 to RMB 7.339 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.7% [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 0.51 in 2022 to RMB 0.62 in 2026 [3] - ROE is expected to decline slightly from 19.7% in 2022 to 15.7% in 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing investment in R&D and international expansion [3] Financial Ratios - The company maintains a strong balance sheet, with total assets projected to grow from RMB 41.770 billion in 2022 to RMB 60.355 billion in 2026 [7] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 24.2% in 2022 to 20.4% in 2026, indicating improving financial health [8] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to remain robust, increasing from RMB 7.627 billion in 2022 to RMB 7.951 billion in 2026 [7] - The company's valuation multiples are attractive, with a forward PE of 12.2x for 2024 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.0x, reflecting its growth potential and strong market position [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 3.36 as of October 15, 2024 [5][6] Core Views - The company remains the industry leader in the property management sector, maintaining a 23.8% market share in new contract signings for H1 2024 [6] - Despite industry-wide challenges, the company's profitability continues to improve, with a projected 5.3% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [6][7] - The company's dividend payout exceeded expectations, contributing to its attractiveness as an investment [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 3,302 million, with a projected increase to RMB 4,491 million by 2026, representing a CAGR of 10.8% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 30.8% YoY in 2023, reaching RMB 974 million, and is expected to reach RMB 1,350 million by 2026 [6] - The company's ROE remains strong at 29.5% for 2023, with a slight increase to 30.1% projected for 2026 [6] Market Position and Industry Trends - The company secured new contract signings of 17.46 million square meters in H1 2024, maintaining its leading position in the industry [6] - The property management industry is facing headwinds, with new project fees declining by 16.4% YoY as of September 30, 2024, due to reduced land acquisitions by potential clients [7] - The company's contracted area reached 122.8 million square meters as of June 30, 2024, with a corresponding salable value of RMB 892 billion [7] Operational Metrics - The company's gross margin stood at 52.2% in 2023, with a slight decline to 51.2% projected for 2026 [6] - Government-related projects saw a significant decline in gross margin, dropping by 4.4 percentage points to 40.4% in H1 2024 [7] - Operating cash flow decreased by 87% YoY to RMB 77.5 million in H1 2024, primarily due to delayed fee collections and slower project initiation [7] Valuation - The company's PE ratio is projected at 6.0x for 2024, 5.1x for 2025, and 4.6x for 2026, based on the closing price of HKD 3.36 as of October 15, 2024 [6] - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.6x in 2024 to 1.4x by 2026, reflecting the company's strong asset base and growth potential [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - Anta Sports reported its Q3 2024 revenue performance, showing a year-on-year growth in Anta's revenue, while FILA experienced a decline. Other brands saw a growth of 45%-50%, but overall performance was slightly below expectations for both Anta and FILA [4]. - The online growth for Anta is stronger, with expectations that e-commerce will outperform offline sales. The core areas and new store formats are performing well, while street shops are relatively weak. The Olympic Games in August are expected to boost retail performance, although September may see a slowdown due to the Mid-Autumn Festival timing [4]. - FILA's short-term revenue is under pressure, particularly in the kids and fusion segments, which require adjustments. Despite a decline in various categories due to consumer downgrading, golf and tennis categories are expected to perform relatively well [4]. - Inventory levels are healthy, with Anta's inventory turnover expected to be around 4-5 months and FILA's close to 5 months. This positions the company well for Q4 [4]. - Looking ahead, Anta plans to open and renovate 300 stores during the National Day period, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth. Despite uncertainties in FILA's retail performance, effective cost control and discount management are anticipated to support stable annual growth [4]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Anta Sports is as follows: - 2023: 62,356 million - 2024E: 69,475 million (growth of 11.42%) - 2025E: 76,064 million (growth of 9.48%) - 2026E: 82,770 million (growth of 8.82%) [7]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is: - 2023: 10,236 million - 2024E: 13,319 million (growth of 30.12%) - 2025E: 13,638 million (growth of 2.39%) - 2026E: 15,070 million (growth of 10.50%) [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2024: 4.71 - 2025: 4.82 - 2026: 5.33 [7].

买入（维持） 股价（2024年10月15日） 47.45 港元 目标价格 60.47 港元 52 周最高价/最低价 63.45/37.55 港元 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） 431,585/356,986 H 股市值（百万港币） 204,787 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒 报告发布日期 2024 年 10 月 16 日 1 周 1 月 3 月 12 月 绝对表现% -9.96 24.38 -0.84 -25.16 相对表现% -7.05 7.4 -13.62 -39.22 恒生指数% -2.91 16.98 12.78 14.06 项雯倩 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 李雨琪 021-63325888-3023 liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 快手 3Q24 前瞻：流量端稳健增长，内容 和商业化均衡发展 核心观点 ⚫ 整合内容与商业资源、奥运转播效应助推平台 DAU 和时长预计环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sustained profitability improvement of Moncler and Canada Goose is driven by three key factors: precise targeting of high-end consumer groups, increased proportion of direct sales channels, and expansion of product categories [3] - The company's market performance over the past six years is attributed to its reforms and expansions in brand upgrading, direct sales channel proportion, and new product categories [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.57 billion and 4.13 billion yuan in FY25 and FY26, respectively, with a PE ratio of 17-18X for FY25, translating to a reasonable value range of 5.96-6.31 HKD per share [3] Historical Performance of Moncler and Canada Goose - Both Moncler and Canada Goose have achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue and net profit since their IPOs [4][5] - Moncler's revenue grew from 364 million euros in 2011 to 2.603 billion euros in 2022, with a CAGR of 20% [4] - Canada Goose's revenue grew from 218 million CAD in FY2015 to 1.217 billion CAD in FY2023, with a CAGR of 24% [5] - The Asia-Pacific region is the largest revenue contributor for both companies, accounting for 43% of Moncler's revenue and 29% of Canada Goose's revenue in 2022 [5] Profitability Trends - Moncler's gross margin increased from 67% in 2011 to 76.4% in 2022, while its net margin rose from 15.4% to 23.3% over the same period [8][9] - Canada Goose's gross margin increased from 40.6% in FY2014 to 67% in FY2023, with its net margin peaking at 17.3% in FY2018 before declining post-pandemic [8][9] - Moncler's recovery post-pandemic has been stronger compared to Canada Goose, which saw a significant decline in net margin due to increased e-commerce investments and rising labor costs [8] Leadership and Development Strategies - Moncler's CEO, Remo Ruffini, has a strong background in the fashion industry, which has helped the company transition into a luxury brand [12] - Canada Goose's CEO, Dani Reiss, has focused on maintaining the brand's "Made in Canada" identity and functional product positioning [12] - Moncler has diversified its product lines and expanded into non-outerwear categories, while Canada Goose has emphasized its core product functionality and brand heritage [12][27] Channel and Supply Chain Strategies - Moncler's direct sales channel accounts for 80% of its revenue, significantly higher than Canada Goose's 67% [34] - Moncler has a more balanced growth strategy between store expansion and store efficiency, while Canada Goose has relied more on store expansion for growth [31] - Canada Goose maintains a higher proportion of in-house production, with 8 owned factories, compared to Moncler's reliance on third-party suppliers [37] Product Diversification and Seasonal Risk Mitigation - Moncler has successfully diversified its product portfolio, with non-outerwear products accounting for 25% of its revenue in 2020, up from 12% in 2014 [38] - Canada Goose plans to increase its non-down product revenue to 25% by FY2028, aiming to reduce seasonal dependency [38] Market Performance and Valuation - The company's market performance over the past six years has been strong, with a cumulative increase of 571.7% in stock price, outperforming many peers [41][42] - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 3.57 billion and 4.13 billion yuan in FY25 and FY26, respectively, with a PE ratio of 17-18X for FY25 [3]