[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 28 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：10.86 港元 顺丰同城（9699.HK）交通运输 目标价：12.89 港元 净利同比翻倍增长，预计 9 月进入港股通 基础数据 [Table_BaseData] 52 周区间(港元) 6.37-12.6 3 个月平均成交量(百万) 0.51 流通股数(亿) 9.17 市值(亿) 99.63 [Table_Summary 事件：顺丰同城公布 ] 2024年半年报。2024年上半年公司实现营收 68.8亿元， 同比增长 19.6%。公司毛利及毛利率分别为 4.7亿及 6.9%，较去年同期毛利率 6.7%上涨 0.2pp。净利润及净利润率分别为 0.6亿元及 0.9%，较去年同期净利 润同比翻倍增长，增速达 105.1%，公司盈利能力持续提升。 业务凸显良好韧性，实现核心业务健康可持续增长。公司订单量与去年同期相 比实现强劲增长超过三成，同城配送服务的收入从 2023 年上半年 33.9 亿元增 长 19.2%至 2024 年上半年 40.4 亿元。充分发挥运力网络的弹性和成本 ...

Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of HKD 16.6 [1] Core Views - Revenue growth in 1H24 was in line with expectations, with traditional exterior parts slightly exceeding expectations and battery box business slightly below expectations [1] - Net profit growth in 1H24 was in line with expectations, with stable gross margins and increased expenses due to rising freight costs [1] - Future growth is expected to be driven by the battery box business and other new products, with a stable growth outlook [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 to RMB 2.2 billion and RMB 2.58 billion, respectively, and introduced a 2026 forecast of RMB 3.1 billion [1] Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue: RMB 11.1 billion, +14% YoY, +2.9% QoQ [1] - 1H24 net profit: RMB 1.07 billion, +20% YoY, +5.1% QoQ [1] - Gross margin: 28.5%, +2.2PP YoY, flat QoQ [1] - Sales expense ratio: 4.8%, +0.8PP QoQ due to rising freight costs [1] - Management expense ratio: 6.7%, -1.0PP QoQ [1] - R&D expense ratio: 6.4%, -1.0PP QoQ [1] Business Segments - Traditional exterior parts revenue: RMB 7.8 billion, +10% YoY, -7% QoQ [1] - Metal and trim: RMB 2.5 billion, +1.2% YoY [1] - Plastic parts: RMB 2.8 billion, +14% YoY [1] - Aluminum parts: RMB 2.4 billion, +14% YoY [1] - Battery box and structural parts revenue: RMB 2.4 billion, +33% YoY, +24% QoQ [1] Future Outlook - Growth is expected to be driven by the battery box business and other new products [1] - The company is expanding its product categories in structural parts and traditional exterior parts to hedge against joint venture customers [1] - The company benefits from improved gross margins and expense ratios due to new business growth and the end of a high-intensity investment cycle [1] Valuation and Forecasts - 2024E revenue: RMB 24.123 billion, +17.5% YoY [2] - 2025E revenue: RMB 28.232 billion, +17.0% YoY [2] - 2026E revenue: RMB 33.091 billion, +17.2% YoY [2] - 2024E net profit: RMB 2.201 billion, +15.7% YoY [2] - 2025E net profit: RMB 2.577 billion, +17.1% YoY [2] - 2026E net profit: RMB 3.1 billion, +20.3% YoY [2] - 2024E PE: 5.9x, 2025E PE: 5.0x, 2026E PE: 4.2x [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) with a target price of HKD 13, while the current price is HKD 10.8 [1]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 (24H1) was HKD 14.41 billion, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.03 billion, down 13.0% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in sales is attributed to stricter industry regulations and weakened demand, leading to inventory destocking among distributors, resulting in a 22% year-on-year drop in sales volume to 6.38 million units [1]. - Despite the sales decline, the gross profit margin improved by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18%, driven by a shift towards higher-end products [1]. - The report anticipates that as regulatory policies stabilize, leading companies like Yadea will benefit from industry consolidation and improved sales performance [1]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in sales, with net profit forecasts adjusted to HKD 2.52 billion, HKD 3.02 billion, and HKD 3.60 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected revenue is HKD 31.16 billion, reflecting a 10% decrease, while the net profit is projected at HKD 2.52 billion, a 5% decrease [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 0.86, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.2 [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach HKD 27.33 billion by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.7% [6].

纺织服装 证券分析师 丁一 S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 研究支持 股价数据： 2024 年 8 月 27 日 收盘价（港元） 71.65 年内最高/最低（港元） 94.95/60.20 总市值（亿港元） 2030 基础数据： 2024 年 6 月 30 日 总股本 (亿股) 28.33 总资产（亿人民币） 971.78 净资产（亿人民币） 616.30 每股净资产（元人民 币） 20.23 联系人 市场表现： -30.00% -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 2020.HK HSI.GI 相关研究 公司点评 2024 年 08 月 29 日 安踏体育 (2020.HK) 买入 （维持） ——主品牌稳健户外品牌高增长，高效运营利润率持续上行 投资要点： ➢ 多品牌运营下营收增长稳健，毛利率增至 64.1%维持向上趋势。业绩方面，公司 24H1 实现营收 337.4 亿元，同比+13.8%；整体毛利率同比+0.8pct 至 64.1%； 整体净利率 25.7%，同比持平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 10.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with a gross margin of 27.8%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.51 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year [2] - The railway investment in China is rapidly increasing, benefiting the company's rail transit equipment business, which saw a revenue increase of 31% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [3] - The emerging equipment segment continues to grow, with a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by the demand for new energy vehicles and power semiconductor devices [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 18.034 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 22.447 billion yuan in 2023, and further to 26.672 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 19.26%, 24.47%, and 18.82% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.556 billion yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 3.106 billion yuan in 2023 and 3.615 billion yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 26.67%, 21.51%, and 16.39% respectively [2] Business Segments Rail Transit Equipment - The company achieved revenue of 6.14 billion yuan from rail transit equipment in the first half of 2024, a 31% increase year-on-year, benefiting from a significant rise in national railway fixed asset investment [3] - The demand for rail transit equipment is expected to remain strong due to the recovery in passenger transport and increased railway investments [3] Emerging Equipment - Revenue from emerging equipment reached 4.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 9% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from power semiconductor devices and new energy vehicle systems [4] - The company is expected to maintain growth in this segment as production capacity is released and new products are introduced [4] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the expected net profit for 2024 and 2025 upwards to 3.62 billion yuan and 4.38 billion yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of 4.88 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) based on the closing price on August 28, 2024, is projected to be 10.4 for 2024, 8.6 for 2025, and 7.7 for 2026 [4]

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 29 日 证券研究报告•2024 年中报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：27.05 港元 农夫山泉（9633.HK）食品饮料 目标价：34.20 港元 包装水短期承压，茶饮加速放量 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年中报，24H1 实现营收 221.7 亿元，同比+8.4%；归母 净利润 62.4 亿元，同比+8.0%。 包装水受舆论攻击影响承压，茶饮受益于无糖风潮维持高增。分品类看，包装 水、茶饮料、功能饮料、果汁饮料、其他产品分别实现销售收入 85.3 亿元 （-18.3%）、84.3亿元（+59.5%）、25.5亿元（+3.8%）、21.1亿元（+25.4%）、 5.5 亿元(-7.2%)，分别占总营收的 38.5%/38.0%/11.5%/9.5%/2.5%。其中，包 装水下降较多主因 2 月底网络出现大量对公司和创始人的舆论攻击和恶意诋毁 影响品牌销售。茶饮料中东方树叶及茶π两大单品在健康化、低糖化趋势下快 速放量，第二曲线逐步夯实，东方树叶新口味新规格研发上市。功能饮料一方 面推出尖叫新口味注入品牌活力，另一方 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 28 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：10.86 港元 顺丰同城（9699.HK）交通运输 目标价：12.89 港元 净利同比翻倍增长，预计 9 月进入港股通 基础数据 [Table_BaseData] 52 周区间(港元) 6.37-12.6 3 个月平均成交量(百万) 0.51 流通股数(亿) 9.17 市值(亿) 99.63 [Table_Summary 事件：顺丰同城公布 ] 2024年半年报。2024年上半年公司实现营收 68.8亿元， 同比增长 19.6%。公司毛利及毛利率分别为 4.7亿及 6.9%，较去年同期毛利率 6.7%上涨 0.2pp。净利润及净利润率分别为 0.6亿元及 0.9%，较去年同期净利 润同比翻倍增长，增速达 105.1%，公司盈利能力持续提升。 业务凸显良好韧性，实现核心业务健康可持续增长。公司订单量与去年同期相 比实现强劲增长超过三成，同城配送服务的收入从 2023 年上半年 33.9 亿元增 长 19.2%至 2024 年上半年 40.4 亿元。充分发挥运力网络的弹性和成本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 12.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.0% from the current price of HKD 10.08 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's profit performance is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 8.7% for the first half of the year, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half due to a low comparative base [1]. - Insurance service revenue increased by 5% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 5% growth in auto insurance, while agricultural insurance saw a decline of 7% [1]. - The combined cost ratio (COR) improved for auto and agricultural insurance, with the overall COR at 96.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Total investment income decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, but a more stable performance is expected in the second half due to adjustments in asset allocation [1]. - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.208 per share, with a payout ratio of 25% [1]. Financial Overview - For the first half of 2023, the company reported a net profit of RMB 24,585 million, down 8.7% year-on-year, with total investment income of RMB 20,807 million [5][8]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at RMB 1.19 [4][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow at a rate of 5.2% annually, with insurance service revenue expected to increase by 7.0% in 2024 [9].

收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 27.05 港元 33.74↓ +24.7% 农夫山泉 (9633 HK) 如何看待绿瓶水和红瓶水的格局？公司于今年 4 月份上市纯净水产品（即 绿瓶水），目前仍处于消费者宣传和终端促销的过程。由于上市时间较短 且产品仅有一种规格（550ml），因此带给公司整体业绩影响有限。同时， 天然水和纯净水有不同的使用目的和场景，因此在各自对应的消费需求领 域存在各自的增长空间。公司计划通过品类差异化的宣传和渠道的建设推 广，以保证两个产品的健康增长。 2024 上半年收入利润均实现高个位数增长。2024 年上半年农夫山泉销售 额同比增长 8.44%至 221.7 亿元（人民币，下同）。毛利率同比下降 1.4 个 百分点至 58.8%，主因 1）纯净水产品新品上市促销的影响，2）上半年包 装饮用水产品销量下降带来固定成本分摊费用的上升，3）果汁原料价格 上升，各因素影响程度较为均衡。净利润同比增长 8.0%至 62.4 亿元，对 应净利润率为 28.1%，仍处高位（2023 年上/下半年分别为 28.2%/ 28.4%）。 包装饮用水业务受舆论影响而显著下滑；茶饮和果汁业务表现亮眼。尽管 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company's brand and product competitiveness remain strong, and accelerated capacity migration may alleviate concerns [2][3] - The company has significantly improved its profit forecast for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates raised from -0.17/0.50/1.18 million USD to 1.05/1.30/1.64 million USD, representing year-on-year growth of 24%/26% for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the U.S. real estate market and related OPE demand due to the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve [3] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 816 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 10.45%, with electric tools and OPE revenues growing by 9.5% and 10.2% respectively [3] - The net profit for H1 2024 was 62 million USD, up 25% year-on-year, benefiting from a gross margin increase of approximately 0.8 percentage points to 32.9% [3] - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance for 2024 to over 20%, anticipating strong terminal demand and continued channel replenishment [3] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 18.90 HKD, with a market capitalization of 9.659 billion HKD [2] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 11.8, 9.5, and 7.6 respectively, while the P/B ratios are 1.1, 1.0, and 0.9 [4]