Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 118, based on a 25x PE for 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand achieved mid-single-digit growth in Q3 2024, with e-commerce continuing to show over 25% growth. The inventory remains healthy with a sell-through ratio below 5 [1]. - FILA experienced a low single-digit decline in Q3 2024, impacted by market saturation and weak demand, but is expected to stabilize in Q4 due to the e-commerce peak season [1]. - Other brands, particularly in outdoor sports, showed strong performance with growth rates of 45-50%, including significant increases for specific brands like Disante and Kolon [1]. - The overall performance in Q4 is anticipated to improve due to favorable consumption policies and the upcoming Double Eleven sales event [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 86,578 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.9% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) is expected to rise from RMB 10,236 million in 2023 to RMB 15,349 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023 [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from RMB 3.69 in 2023 to RMB 5.53 in 2026 [2][6]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese sportswear industry, expected to benefit from industry growth and consumer trends [1][3]. - The company has a diversified brand portfolio, with strategies tailored to different consumer segments, enhancing its market reach [1]. Shareholder Structure - The major shareholder is Anta International Group Holdings Limited, holding 42.45% of the shares, followed by The DSZ Family Trust and others [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.54 for 2023, decreasing to 15.04 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][9]. - The projected dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.20% in 2023 to 2.61% in 2026 [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin is expected to improve from 62.6% in 2023 to 63.3% in 2026, indicating better cost management and pricing power [2][9]. - Inventory turnover days are projected to stabilize around 123 days, reflecting efficient inventory management practices [9]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to fluctuate, with a significant drop anticipated in 2024, followed by recovery in subsequent years [8]. - The cash balance is projected to increase from RMB 15,228 million in 2023 to RMB 24,833 million by 2026, indicating a strengthening liquidity position [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The report highlights the anticipated success of the new model P7+, which is expected to continue the positive sales momentum established by the M03 model. The pricing strategy for P7+ is expected to be aggressive, with a starting price potentially below 200,000 RMB, and possibly as low as 180,000 RMB with promotional offers [1][2]. - The report projects a significant increase in sales forecasts for 2025 and 2026, raising the estimates by 35% and 27% respectively, reflecting the strong performance of M03 and the expected success of P7+ [2][6]. - The financial outlook shows a narrowing of losses due to the scale effect from increased sales and cost control measures, with revenue expected to grow significantly over the next few years [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: 39,627 million RMB (up 29.2% YoY) - 2025E: 61,231 million RMB (up 54.5% YoY) - 2026E: 67,665 million RMB (up 10.5% YoY) [3][9]. - Net profit forecasts indicate continued losses, but with a decreasing trend: - 2024E: (4,848) million RMB - 2025E: (2,360) million RMB - 2026E: (1,290) million RMB [3][9]. - The report also provides a detailed breakdown of the company's financial metrics, including gross profit and margins, indicating improvements in operational efficiency [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HKD 513.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% from the current price of HKD 438.80 [1][3][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that mobile gaming continues to show robust growth, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [1]. - Domestic mobile game revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, accelerating from 10% growth in the first half of the year [2]. - The report anticipates that Tencent will maintain a trend of profit growth exceeding revenue growth due to ongoing cost control and operational leverage [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 554,552 - 2023: 609,015 - 2024E: 657,575 - 2025E: 721,654 - 2026E: 768,333 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 9.8% - 2024E: 8.0% - 2025E: 9.7% - 2026E: 6.5% [3][19]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 115,649 - 2023: 157,688 - 2024E: 207,933 - 2025E: 229,754 - 2026E: 257,385 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 37.6% - 2024E: 34.4% - 2025E: 12.1% - 2026E: 13.2% [3][19]. - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): - 2022: 11.86 - 2023: 16.33 - 2024E: 21.94 - 2025E: 24.60 - 2026E: 27.84 [3][19]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic mobile game revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by new game contributions [2]. - Overseas mobile game revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-on-year in Q3 2024, supported by Supercell's "Brawl Stars" [2]. - Advertising revenue growth is expected to be 16% year-on-year in Q3 2024, slightly down from previous expectations due to budget adjustments by advertisers [2]. Valuation and Outlook - The report maintains net profit expectations for 2024/25 and adjusts the valuation to 20 times the earnings for 2025, raising the target price to HKD 513.00 from HKD 486.00 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HK$108.40, representing a 4% increase from the previous target price of HK$104.20 [1]. Core Views - Anta Sports' performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, particularly for the FILA brand, while Descente and KOLON continued to show strong growth [1]. - The company is expected to achieve its annual guidance, with a projected revenue growth of 12.4% year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - The report highlights challenges for FILA in meeting its annual targets, with anticipated revenue growth between 4.6% and 5.2% for the year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 70,096 million, with a slight downward adjustment of 0.9% from previous estimates [2]. - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 63.2% across the forecast period [2]. - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 14,122 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% from earlier projections [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 4.99, down 1% from previous estimates [1][2]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$91.40, with an upside potential of 19% to the target price [1]. - The market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately US$33.273 billion [1]. - The report indicates that the company's stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 16.7 for 2024, which is competitive compared to peers [3].

恒生指数 21.4% 15.3% 18.4% 52 周价格区间（港元） 260.20-482.40 流通股本（万股） 927,961.82 2024 年 10 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 游戏加速，广告稳健，持续高质量增长 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）2024Q3 财报前瞻 最近一年走势 1、主要财务指标前瞻：我们预计公司 2024Q3 实现营业收入 1670 亿元（YoY+8%）。其中增值服务 823 亿元（YoY+9%），增值服务 中游戏业务 518 亿元（YoY+13%）、社交网络 305 亿元（YoY+3%）， 在线广告业务 298 亿元（YoY+16%），金融科技和企业服务 536 亿 元（YoY+3%）。预计公司 2024Q3 毛利率 53%（YoY+4pct），毛 利润891亿元（YoY+16%）;销售费用率 6%，一般及行政费用率 17%； NON-IFRS 经营利润 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The company's main brand shows steady growth, while FILA experiences a slight decline, with other brands accelerating their performance. The main brand is expected to grow in the low single digits year-on-year, while FILA has seen its first quarterly year-on-year decline since Q4 2022 [4] - The company has opened over 300 new stores during the National Day holiday, enhancing its market coverage and targeting specific consumer segments with diverse store formats [4] - A share repurchase plan of up to HKD 10 billion is expected to enhance shareholder returns and stabilize the stock price [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 13.765 billion and HKD 13.993 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation range of 18-20X for 2024 [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 62.356 billion in 2023 to HKD 83.923 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from HKD 10.236 billion in 2023 to HKD 14.696 billion in 2026, with a significant year-on-year growth of 34.9% in 2024 [5] - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 62.7% from 2024 onwards [5] Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 25.29 for 2023, decreasing to 17.60 by 2026 [8] - The projected price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 5.03 in 2023 to 3.57 in 2026 [8] - The expected dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.2% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company plans to introduce strategic investments from government-backed capital in Jinhua, Hangzhou, and other regions, which is expected to enhance its future growth [6][7]. - The company has signed agreements for domestic share subscriptions with various government-backed funds, indicating confidence in its future development [6]. - The total expected capital increase is 2.6 billion RMB, primarily aimed at research and development of new vehicle models and upgrading existing ones [6]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On October 9, the company entered into domestic share subscription agreements with multiple government-backed entities, aiming to enhance its growth trajectory [6]. Event Commentary - The strategic investment is expected to increase the shareholding ratio by approximately 5%, with a subscription price of 40.80 HKD per share, reflecting a premium of about 29% over the closing price on October 9 [6]. - The funds raised will be allocated primarily for R&D (approximately 75%) and operational capital (approximately 25%) [6]. Domestic and Overseas Growth - The company is experiencing a strong domestic new car cycle, which is driving continuous sales growth, with expectations of reaching sales of 280,000, 500,000, and 640,000 vehicles from 2024 to 2026 [7]. - The partnership with Stellantis is expected to facilitate international expansion with a focus on low initial investment and rapid market entry [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for JD Health with a target price of **HKD 33.00** [5] Core Views - JD Health's revenue growth is expected to remain moderate due to weak consumer sentiment, with 2H24 revenue growth projected at **10.2% YoY** and adjusted net profit at **RMB 1.67 billion**, a slight decline of **1.7% YoY** [3] - The report revised JD Health's revenue forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 to **RMB 57.5/62.2/66.2 billion** (previously RMB 57.8/62.6/66.7 billion) and non-IFRS net profit forecasts to **RMB 4.25/4.80/5.22 billion** (previously RMB 4.43/5.02/5.71 billion) [2] - The valuation method was adjusted to relative valuation, with a target non-IFRS PE of **20x for 2025**, higher than the peer average of **14.0x**, reflecting JD Health's market share gains in the pharmaceutical market [2] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - JD Health's 3Q24 revenue is expected to grow **12.0% YoY** to **RMB 12.98 billion**, slowing from **14.6% YoY** in 2Q24 [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to **23.0/23.5/23.8%** for 2024/2025/2026, driven by operational leverage and higher service revenue contribution [8] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024/2025/2026 is revised down by **-3.9/-4.4/-8.6%** to **RMB 4.25/4.80/5.22 billion**, mainly due to lower interest income expectations in a rate-cutting environment [8] Industry and Policy Drivers - JD Health's future valuation upside is driven by **consumer sentiment recovery** and **policy support**, such as the expansion of online medical insurance payment coverage in regions like Beijing and Guangdong [4] - As of September 24, the number of pharmacies covered by online medical insurance payments in Beijing increased to **490**, up from **350** in 1H24 [4] - Guangdong has expanded online medical insurance payment coverage to **1,300 retail pharmacies** across nine cities, with similar expansions in Yunnan and Sichuan [4] Financial Metrics - JD Health's revenue for 2024E/2025E/2026E is projected at **RMB 57.5/62.2/66.2 billion**, with YoY growth of **7.4/8.2/6.5%** [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow **46.5/14.5/9.7%** to **RMB 3.14/3.59/3.94 billion** for 2024E/2025E/2026E [7] - ROE is forecasted to improve to **6.2/6.6/6.8%** for 2024E/2025E/2026E, while PE ratios are expected to decline to **25.3/22.2/20.4x** [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6] Core Views - The company is expected to reach a quarterly performance peak in Q4 2024, with current valuations having returned to a safe margin [6][28] - The trading volume is anticipated to benefit directly from increased activity, while investment income remains high due to the lagging effect of margin investment returns relative to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [28] Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a reversal in late September, with trading activity significantly increasing [10] - As of the end of September 2024, the total market capitalization of listed securities on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 36.92 trillion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.2% [10] - The average daily trading (ADT) for September was HKD 1,692 billion, up 77.1% quarter-on-quarter [10][14] Performance Forecasts - For Q3 2024, the company is projected to have a single-quarter net profit of HKD 3.326 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [26] - The total revenue and investment income for Q3 2024 is expected to be HKD 5.574 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [26] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue and investment income are projected to be HKD 161.95 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6% [26] Q4 Performance Elasticity - The company’s performance in Q4 2024 is expected to show high elasticity, with ADT reaching new highs since September 24 [5][26] - If ADT reaches HKD 4,000 billion, 3,000 billion, and 2,000 billion in Q4, the projected net profits for the year would be HKD 148.55 billion, HKD 141.58 billion, and HKD 134.62 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 19%, and 13% [5][27] Investment Recommendations - The company is recommended for investment due to the anticipated peak in quarterly performance and the current valuation being within a safe margin [6][28] - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are HKD 134.62 billion, HKD 138.73 billion, and HKD 145.77 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 13.5%, 3.1%, and 5.1% [6][28]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of HKD 17.39, implying a 32.7% upside from the current price [1][3] Core Views - Strong Q3 2024 performance with revenue of RMB 8.086 billion, up 26.64% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 881 million, up 141.07% YoY [1] - Gold price surge driving profitability, with London spot gold reaching USD 2,648.8/oz, up 13.64% since June 2024 [1] - Incremental projects progressing well, including the full acquisition of Tietto and the development of the Haiyu Gold Mine, expected to contribute significantly to future growth [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 3.458 billion, up 17.7% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 328 million, up 192.86% YoY [1] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: RMB 1.25 billion, RMB 1.98 billion, and RMB 2.7 billion, respectively [1] - EPS for 2024-2026 forecasted at RMB 0.37, RMB 0.58, and RMB 0.79, respectively [4] Gold Market and Company Positioning - Gold revenue accounted for 89% of total revenue and 99% of gross profit in H1 2024 [1] - Haiyu Gold Mine has a total gold resource of 562.37 tons and recoverable reserves of 212.21 tons, with an average grade of 4.42 g/t [1] - Tietto acquisition adds over 40 tons of gold reserves, with annual production expected to reach 5 tons [1] Valuation and Growth Prospects - Target price of HKD 17.39 based on 30x 2025 PE, reflecting strong growth potential from gold price trends and project developments [1] - Revenue growth forecasted at 53% in 2024, 23% in 2025, and 23% in 2026 [4] - Net profit growth forecasted at 82% in 2024, 57.8% in 2025, and 36.9% in 2026 [4] Financial Metrics - Gross margin improved to 45.2% in 2024E, 47.2% in 2025E, and 48.9% in 2026E [5] - Net margin expected to rise to 9.7% in 2024E, 12.4% in 2025E, and 13.9% in 2026E [5] - ROE forecasted at 6.4% in 2024E, 9.3% in 2025E, and 11.6% in 2026E [5]