Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) with a target price of HKD 340 for the next 12 months [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that improvements in the new stock listing channels for Hong Kong Exchanges are a significant long-term benefit for the Greater China stock market, as the Stock Connect programs have fundamentally changed the investment landscape for both Hong Kong and mainland Chinese investors since their launch in 2014 [1] - It mentions that there are 26 Chinese concept stocks, which are constituents of the MSCI China and FTSE China indices, that have not yet been listed in Hong Kong, with a total market capitalization of USD 237 billion and an average daily trading volume of USD 2 billion over the past three months, representing approximately 5% and 6% of Hong Kong Exchanges' current market capitalization and daily trading volume, respectively [1] - According to sensitivity analysis, if all these stocks were to list in Hong Kong, it is anticipated that the earnings per share for Hong Kong Exchanges would increase by 6% by 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) [1] Core Insights - Daiwa Securities raised the target price for Xiaomi from HKD 65 to HKD 70, an increase of 7.7%, based on a 38x P/E ratio for 2025-26 and a 4.4x P/S ratio for the electric vehicle business [1] - Xiaomi's Q1 2025 performance exceeded market expectations by 13% in adjusted net profit, with gross profit margins for IoT and electric vehicles surprising positively, exceeding market expectations by 4 percentage points and 2 percentage points respectively [1] - The upcoming investor day on June 3 and the listing of YU7 in July are expected to serve as short-term catalysts for the stock [1] - Based on the revised gross profit margin forecasts for electric vehicles and IoT, the report has increased the earnings per share estimates for 2025-27 by 8-19% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780) [1] Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue in line with forecasts but net profit surpassing both Macquarie's and market consensus by 6% and 8% respectively, driven by strong commission rate expansion [1] - The robust hotel business within the travel services sector is expected to contribute to revenue and profit growth [1] - Macquarie has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel for 2025 and 2026 by 2% to reflect a more favorable profit margin outlook [1] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been increased from HKD 25.1 to HKD 25.5 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Anta Sports, with a target price raised from HKD 115.7 to HKD 122.3 [1] Core Insights - UBS has increased its net profit forecasts for Anta Sports for the years 2025 to 2027 due to better-than-expected earnings contributions from AmerSports [1] - The management indicated that several factors will influence the overall profit margin of the group this year, including strong sales from Descente and Kolon, reduced inventory provisions, and better-than-expected performance from AmerSports [2] - The management also stated that the restructuring of the FILA brand is ongoing, with guidance suggesting that its growth rate will exceed economic growth, maintaining an annual operating profit margin target of 25% [2] Summary by Sections - **Store Performance**: By the end of 2024, SuperAnta and Anta Champion stores are expected to have 45 and 80 locations respectively. In the first five months of 2025, sales from Champion stores doubled, with average monthly sales reaching RMB 550,000. The operating profit margin of Champion stores is reported to be better than the group average [1] - **Sales Strategy**: The SuperAnta stores typically achieve monthly sales two to three times higher than regular stores, with 80% of products being newly developed. The business model aims to sell core products through larger store formats, reducing product costs and providing competitively priced products [1] - **New Store Impact**: Although these new store formats only account for 1% to 2% of the total number of stores, they are expected to help attract new customers [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 17.249 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.24% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 2.063 billion, down 10.41% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit increased by 1.3% to HKD 2.350 billion [2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, with a payout ratio of 50.80% [2] Revenue Analysis - The company experienced a decline in revenue from the Chinese market by 16.49% year-on-year, while the North American market grew by 3.17% and the European market increased by 19.19% [3] - The Chinese market accounted for 58.70% of total revenue, indicating its continued importance despite current challenges [3] - The company is focusing on optimizing its offline channels, increasing the number of stores to 7,367 in China [3] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin was 40.49%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.75%, a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points [4] - The gross margins for different product lines varied, with the sofa and related products seeing an increase, while bedding products faced a decline [4] - Overall, the company managed to control its operating expenses effectively, resulting in a total expense ratio decrease of 0.78 percentage points to 23.51% [4] Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned in a large consumer market with significant growth potential, particularly in its domestic sales and recovering export business [5] - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are adjusted to HKD 18.063 billion, HKD 19.369 billion, and HKD 20.889 billion, respectively [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected at HKD 0.59, HKD 0.65, and HKD 0.71, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading provider of digital transformation services with a comprehensive stack of capabilities, including consulting, R&D, delivery, integration, operation, decision-making, and service [12][8]. - The company has a significant market share in the telecom BOSS software market, holding 35.5% domestically and ranking second globally [8]. - The AI large model delivery business is gaining momentum, with over 30 signed orders for 2024, showcasing the company's ability to leverage AI in high-value scenarios [8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its data-driven operations and has seen substantial growth in its smart operation business across various industries [8]. - Future profit forecasts indicate a rebound in net profit from 2025 onwards, with expected growth rates of 56% in 2026 and 16% in 2027 [8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,913 million, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [2]. - The company expects a decline in revenue in 2024 to 6,646 million, a decrease of 16% [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 533 million, reflecting a significant drop of 36% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 14.9 in 2023 to 9.7 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [2]. Business Overview - The company operates in various sectors, including telecommunications, government, finance, energy, and transportation, providing end-to-end digital transformation services [12][13]. - The BSS business accounts for 60.9% of the revenue, while the OSS and smart operation businesses contribute 12.3% and 16.6%, respectively [13]. - The company has a strong focus on vertical industry digitalization, particularly in finance, energy, and transportation [13][14]. Historical Development - The company has evolved from a telecom software leader to a digital transformation pioneer since its establishment in 1993 [23]. - Significant milestones include its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018 and the acquisition of iResearch Consulting in 2022, enhancing its digital capabilities [24][23]. Governance Structure - The company has a concentrated and stable shareholding structure, with AsiaInfo Security becoming the largest shareholder in 2024 [25]. - The governance framework is designed to ensure long-term stability and strategic alignment with its parent company [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Views - Meituan's long-term ecological investment priority is emphasized over short-term profit performance, with a 1% and 13% beat on revenue and adjusted profit expectations respectively for Q1 [1][2] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - Active user and merchant numbers reached new highs, indicating strong growth potential [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, slightly exceeding expectations [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - The core local business showed robust growth with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% respectively [3] - The food delivery segment saw an increase in user order frequency, particularly among high-frequency users, with daily order volume growth estimated at around 10% [3] - Instant retail competition is being addressed with a planned investment of 100 billion yuan over the next three years to enhance supply chain and merchant digital transformation [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - For Q2, total revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with core local business and new business revenues projected to increase by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - The full-year revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to a 15% year-on-year increase, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 177 HKD, representing a 34% upside potential from the recent closing price [4][6]

交银国际研究 快手 (1024 HK) 1 季度业绩符合预期；海外运营层面盈利，可灵商业化加速 1 年股价表现 买入 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 1024 HK MSCI中国指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 66.35 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 38.15 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 173,731.84 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 26.57 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 17.90 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 49.84 | 资料来源 : FactSet 赵丽, CFA 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 港元 48.75 | 港元 64.00 | +31.3% | | mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 蔡涵 hanna.cai@boco ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 75.52 HKD based on a 38x PE valuation for 2026 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and adjusted net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion CNY, a 47% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion CNY, up 64% year-on-year [9]. - The smartphone segment showed significant growth, with a 9% increase in revenue to 50.6 billion CNY and a global market share of 14.1%, ranking among the top three globally [9]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment also saw strong performance, with revenue of 32.3 billion CNY, a 59% increase, and a gross margin of 25.2% [9]. - The internet services segment reported revenue of 9.1 billion CNY, a 13% increase, with a gross margin of 76.9% [9]. - The electric vehicle segment generated 18.6 billion CNY in revenue, with a gross margin of 23.2%, and the company continues to expand its sales network [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 477.67 billion CNY, 575.30 billion CNY, and 690.22 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 20% [5][10]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 35.12 billion CNY, 47.32 billion CNY, and 59.00 billion CNY, with growth rates of 48%, 35%, and 25% [5][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 22.5% in 2025 to 23.1% in 2027, while net profit margin is projected to increase from 7.4% to 8.5% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 1.35 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 2.27 CNY, respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual alleviation of performance pressure, with same-store sales showing signs of improvement. The focus is on high-quality development and strategic store network optimization [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.54 billion, 24.60 billion, and 29.55 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 20.9%, 19.7%, and 20.2%. Adjusted net profits are projected at 2.86 billion, 3.68 billion, and 4.56 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.97%, 28.74%, and 24.04% respectively [4][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a gross margin of 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points. Adjusted net profit was 590 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year [12] - The company’s domestic same-store sales have shown significant improvement, with a notable reduction in the decline rate compared to previous quarters. The total number of stores reached 4,275, with a net closure of 111 stores [13] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% over the next three years, with adjusted net profit margins expected to stabilize and improve [15][16] - The adjusted net profit corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are forecasted to be 14X, 11X, and 9X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][15] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain advantages and IP transformation capabilities while continuing its global expansion strategy [15] - The overseas business saw revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, despite facing high base pressure from the previous year [14]