医药生物/医疗服务 固生堂（02273.HK） 2025 年 09 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/9/1 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 33.560 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 48.950/25.500 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 79.21 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 79.21 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.36 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 2.36 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 49.96 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 固生堂 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《中医连锁服务龙头企业，国际化布 局持续推进—港股公司首次覆盖报 告》-2025.7.24 2025 上半年业绩稳健增长，盈利能力持续提升 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 阮帅（分析师） | | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | ruanshuai@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编 ...

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating for Li Ning to "Recommended" based on the company's resilient operational capabilities and strategic execution despite short-term performance pressures [3]. Core Views - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 14.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while net profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 11.0% to CNY 1.74 billion [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in 2025, focusing on core product categories such as running, basketball, women's sports, outdoor activities, and badminton [3]. - The company aims to enhance its professional sports brand image and prepare for future structural market opportunities with healthy inventory and strong cash flow [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2025H1, footwear revenue reached CNY 8.23 billion, up 4.93% year-on-year, accounting for 55.55% of total revenue, while apparel revenue fell by 3.39% to CNY 5.19 billion, representing 35.05% of total revenue [1]. - Gross margin for 2025H1 was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased discounts in the direct sales channel [2]. - The net profit margin was 11.7%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, affected by higher expenses and impairment losses [2]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Operating cash flow for 2025H1 was CNY 2.41 billion, exceeding the current profit, indicating strong cash flow management [2]. - Inventory turnover ratio was 3.6 months, with new products accounting for 87% of the inventory, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts stable revenue for the full year of 2025, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 being CNY 2.605 billion, CNY 2.985 billion, and CNY 3.244 billion, respectively [3][4]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.74, 16.36, and 15.05 times, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by AI and digital finance, with projected revenue increasing from 1,965.39 million RMB in 2023 to 4,723.75 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.71% [11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise significantly from 190.72 million RMB in 2023 to 1,568.04 million RMB in 2027, indicating a substantial recovery and growth trajectory [11] - The company is focusing on building a comprehensive product system to enhance user engagement and diversify revenue streams, with nearly 50 lightweight products launched to cater to diverse customer needs [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,965.39 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.23%, expected to increase to 2,305.99 million RMB in 2024, representing a growth rate of 17.33% [11] - The net profit for 2023 is 190.72 million RMB, with a significant decline of 58.59% year-on-year, but is projected to rebound to 1,215.91 million RMB by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 346.43% [11] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 12.59% in 2023 to 44.30% by 2027, indicating improved profitability and efficiency [11] Product and Technology Development - The company is advancing its AI capabilities and digital transformation, aiming to enhance its service offerings in the securities sector through AI integration in research, education, compliance, and customer service [2][3] - The establishment of a dedicated technology subsidiary, Jiufang Zhiying, is part of the strategy to develop a native service technology system in the AI field [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is committed to a buy-side advisory model, with a strong emphasis on research capabilities and a well-structured team of experts to support its investment strategies [3] - The report highlights the company's efforts to enhance its online presence and user engagement, with a significant increase in social media followers and account operations [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in the capital market, which are anticipated to bolster market confidence and support its growth strategy [9] - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to leverage advancements in AI and digital finance to diversify its revenue streams and enhance customer retention [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][16][28] Core Insights - The company reported a 37.8% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, reaching RMB 1.41 billion, with net losses of RMB 570 million, aligning with expectations [5][12] - Key product sales, particularly cadonilimab and ivonescimab, have ramped up significantly following their inclusion in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) [5][12] - The company has a strong cash reserve of approximately RMB 7.14 billion as of June 2025 [5][12] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025E are set at RMB 3.15 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 48.38% [10] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025E is a loss of RMB 870 million, with subsequent years showing a recovery to RMB 1.57 billion by 2027E [10] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted downwards for 2025E to -RMB 0.97, with a gradual recovery expected in the following years [10][16] Clinical Development and Pipeline Expansion - The AK112 clinical trial has achieved significant overall survival (OS) benefits, with multiple indications under development, including NSCLC [6][13] - Cadonilimab (AK104) is undergoing extensive clinical trials for various indications, with three already approved by the NMPA [7][14] - The company is expanding its non-oncology pipeline, with new products and ongoing clinical trials for several indications [8][15] Target Price Adjustment - The target price has been raised from HK$ 87 to HK$ 189, indicating a potential upside of 21% [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for 澳博控股 (00880) [1] Core Views - The company's 1H25 performance was below expectations, with total revenue of 14.6 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 6%. EBITDA decreased by 5% to 1.65 billion HKD, and the net loss widened from 160 million HKD in 1H24 to 180 million HKD, primarily due to underperformance in the 上葡京 project [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 0.3 HKD to 0.01 HKD, with projections for 2026 and 2027 set at 0.12 HKD and 0.17 HKD, respectively. The target price has been adjusted from 3.7 HKD to 3.3 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 13% [6] - The company plans to acquire a portion of the 葡京酒店 for a total consideration of 529 million HKD, which will expand the operational area of the 葡京娱乐场 by an additional 7,504 square meters, positioning it as the largest integrated resort on the Macau Peninsula [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 澳博控股 are as follows: - 2023: 21,624 million HKD - 2024: 28,770 million HKD - 2025E: 29,542 million HKD - 2026E: 26,978 million HKD - 2027E: 27,278 million HKD - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 224% for 2023, 37% for 2024, 3% for 2025, -8% for 2026, and 1% for 2027 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: -2,010 million HKD - 2024: 3 million HKD - 2025E: 84 million HKD - 2026E: 824 million HKD - 2027E: 1,177 million HKD - The corresponding year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 2512% for 2025, 886% for 2026, and 43% for 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 1.46 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, and net profit of 170 million RMB, up 35.5% [1]. - The "internal growth + external acquisition" strategy has proven effective, particularly with the acquisition of the brand Nairui, which contributed 277 million RMB in revenue and improved its net profit margin from 6.5% to 10.4% [3]. - The company reported a gross margin of 49.3%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 11.70%, up 0.62 percentage points [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from beauty and wellness services was 810 million RMB, a 29.6% increase, accounting for 55.2% of total revenue. Direct store income was 740 million RMB, up 31.0% [2]. - Medical beauty services generated 500 million RMB, a 13.0% increase, representing 34.2% of total revenue [2]. - The revenue from sub-health medical services doubled to 150 million RMB, a 107.8% increase, making up 10.6% of total revenue [2]. Membership Growth - The company reported a 47.8% increase in direct store customer traffic, reaching 920,000 visits, and active membership grew by 46.5% to 120,000 [4]. - Approximately 20% of beauty and wellness service members upgraded to medical beauty or sub-health services, enhancing the penetration of high-value business [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 330 million RMB, 380 million RMB, and 430 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 43.9%, 17.0%, and 12.2% [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 23X for 2025, 20X for 2026, and 18X for 2027 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 38.544 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.9% to 7.031 billion yuan [2][4] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 1.37 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 50.2% [2] - The growth in outdoor brands is strong, and the effects of refined operational management are becoming evident [1] Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached 38.544 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. Excluding the one-time gain from Amer's listing, the revenue and performance showed good growth [4] - The e-commerce channel revenue grew by 17.6% year-on-year, accounting for 34.8% of total revenue, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [4] - The overall gross profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4%, primarily due to the lower margin from e-commerce and increased contributions from footwear products [9] Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue increased by 5.4% to 16.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) model, e-commerce, and traditional wholesale revenues growing by 5.3%, 10.1%, and declining by 10.6% respectively [5] - FILA brand revenue grew by 8.6% to 14.18 billion yuan, but the gross profit margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 68.0% due to increased costs from enhancing product functionality [6] - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON Sports, saw a revenue increase of 61.1% to 7.41 billion yuan, with gross profit margin improving by 1.2 percentage points to 73.9% [7] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 4.97, 5.65, and 6.55 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 17.6, 15.5, and 13.4 times respectively [11] - Revenue forecasts for the years 2025 to 2027 are 78.943 billion yuan, 88.275 billion yuan, and 98.821 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 11.8%, and 11.9% respectively [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 38.54 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.9% to RMB 7.03 billion. Adjusted net profit increased by 7.1% to RMB 6.6 billion, with a comparable net profit growth of 14.5% when excluding the impact of Amer Sports' listing [7][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of HKD 1.37 per share [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the apparel industry, with a current H-share price of HKD 94.85 and a market capitalization of HKD 211.95 billion. The stock has seen a 12-month high of HKD 104.97 and a low of HKD 67.12 [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has received "Buy" ratings in recent evaluations, with the last rating issued on July 17, 2025, at a closing price of HKD 91.85 [3]. Performance by Brand - Anta brand revenue reached RMB 16.95 billion, up 5.4% year-on-year, while FILA generated RMB 14.18 billion, an 8.6% increase. Other brands, including KOLON and DESCENT, saw a significant revenue increase of 61.1% to RMB 7.41 billion [8]. Product Category Performance - Revenue from footwear products was RMB 16.39 billion, a 12% increase, while apparel revenue was RMB 20.89 billion, up 15.5%. Accessories revenue grew by 24.6% to RMB 1.27 billion [8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 13.25 billion, RMB 14.96 billion, and RMB 16.92 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The expected earnings per share (EPS) for these years are RMB 4.72, RMB 5.33, and RMB 6.02, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18x, 16x, and 14x [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 43.70, based on a current price of HKD 29.96 [2][23]. Core Insights - The company is engaging in discussions with Pfizer regarding the Phase III trial design for SSGJ-707, a PD-1/VEGF antibody, which is a significant development in its pipeline [1][4]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.36 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, with various product sales showing mixed performance [3][15]. - The company is advancing multiple bispecific and trispecific antibody candidates, which are expected to enhance its product offerings and market position [5][18][20]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 18.63 billion, RMB 10.90 billion, and RMB 12.80 billion, with net profit estimates of RMB 8.92 billion, RMB 2.49 billion, and RMB 3.02 billion respectively [9][23]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain strong, with estimates of 92.5% in 2025 and around 87% in subsequent years [9][13]. - The company has seen a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 15% to RMB 550 million, indicating a commitment to innovation [3][15]. Product Development and Pipeline - The company has several key products in development, including SSGJ-707, which has received a global licensing agreement with Pfizer, and other bispecific antibodies like 705 and 706, which are in various stages of clinical trials [4][18][19]. - SSS59, a trispecific antibody, is the first of its kind to enter clinical trials, showing promising preclinical results [20]. - Upcoming catalysts include NDA submissions for several products and potential data readouts for bispecific and trispecific candidates [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for FY2026Q1 reached RMB 247.65 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.7%, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of RMB 253.17 billion. Excluding disposed businesses, the same-caliber revenue grew by 10% year-on-year [12][29] - Adjusted net profit for the same quarter was RMB 33.51 billion, down 17.6% year-on-year but up 12.3% quarter-on-quarter, also below the consensus estimate of RMB 38.44 billion [12][29] - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to RMB 140.07 billion, with customer management revenue reaching RMB 89.25 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year [18][29] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue significantly exceeded expectations, growing by 26% year-on-year to RMB 33.398 billion, driven by increased adoption of AI-related products [21][29] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for FY2026Q1 was RMB 247.65 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% [12] - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue reached RMB 140.07 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [18] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to RMB 34.741 billion, primarily driven by strong performance in cross-border business [21] Profitability Analysis - Adjusted EBITA margin for the Chinese e-commerce group was 27%, down 21% year-on-year, mainly due to investments in "Taobao Flash Sale" and user experience [18] - Adjusted net profit for FY2026Q1 was RMB 33.51 billion, down 17.6% year-on-year [12][29] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 to RMB 120.96 billion, RMB 173.84 billion, and RMB 222.29 billion, respectively [29] - Corresponding PE ratios (Non-GAAP) for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected to be 17, 12, and 9 times [29]