Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and optimized route planning [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for high-quality volume growth, targeting a parcel volume of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion in 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 20% to 24% [5] - The report indicates that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6] - The company is expected to maintain its leading market position and achieve steady growth in both volume and profit due to its scale and management advantages [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express's current valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for significant upside [7][8]

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）：价格战导致 收入端承压，份额增长依旧是经营重心 事件：公司发布 2025 一季报，公司单季完成业务量 85.40 亿件，同比增长 19.1%，市场份额下降 0.4pct 至 18.9%。公司调整后净利润 22.59 亿元，同比 增长 1.6%。 业务量增速回升，但略低于行业均值，25 年重点提升份额：24 年 Q1-Q4，中 通业务量增速分别为 13.9%、10.1%、15.9%和 11.0%，可以看到 24 年整体 业务量增速偏低。25 年公司将工作重心转向提升市场份额，Q1 业务量增速提 升至 19.1%，但还略低于行业增速的 21.6%，主要系低价件整体维持了较快增 长，导致行业整体增速较高。公司维持 25 年业务量 408-422 亿件，同比增长 20-24%的指引不变，按照指引，预计后续几个季度公司业务量增速较 Q1 有所 提升。 单票收入下降 0.11 元，主要系增量补贴提升：Q1 行业竞争较为激烈，导致公 司单票收入由 24Q1 的 1.36 元降至 25Q1 的 1.25 元。其中单票增量补贴增加 导致单票收入下降 0.16 元，以及单票重量下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategy, focusing on a "green health strategy" to enhance brand recognition among consumers and explore new store formats [7] - The company aims to optimize existing stores and introduce new health-focused products, responding to consumer demand for healthier options [7] - The company is expanding its overseas business and steadily developing its bottled beverage segment, with a 10% year-on-year growth in bottled beverage revenue for 2024 [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 5.2 billion, 5.3 billion, and 5.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit expectations of -130 million, 500,000, and 5.6 million yuan [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.33% [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of -917.29 million yuan for 2024, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.54 yuan in 2024 to 0.03 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 342.72 in 2026 and 31.73 in 2027, indicating potential for future profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][26]. Core Views - The company's revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, with a notable profit performance primarily influenced by sales expenses. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 28.8 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.2 billion yuan, representing a 32% year-on-year growth, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 39%, up by 7 percentage points year-on-year [10][4]. - The online gaming business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 23.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 15% increase year-on-year. PC game revenue surged by 85% to 8.1 billion yuan, driven by the return of popular titles and new game releases [2][19]. - The company has adjusted its profit expectations upward, forecasting adjusted net profits of 39.3 billion, 42.5 billion, and 46.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting increases of 5%, 2%, and 2% respectively [4][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for games and value-added services was 68.8%, down by 0.7 percentage points due to changes in game product structure. The total operating expense ratio was 28%, a decrease of 7 percentage points year-on-year, with the sales expense ratio at 9.4%, down by 4.6 percentage points [10][11]. Game Business - The mobile game revenue was 15.4 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year due to a high base from the previous year. However, the PC game revenue of 8.1 billion yuan saw an impressive 85% increase, attributed to the successful return of titles like "Overwatch" and the performance of new games [2][19]. - Several new games have performed exceptionally well, enhancing the company's global gaming influence. Titles like "Marvel's Contest of Champions" and "Outsiders" have quickly climbed to the top of sales charts [19][2]. Other Business Segments - The company's education segment, Youdao, reported a net revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year decline, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous quarter. Key products in AI educational services and programming learning have shown significant growth [20]. - NetEase Cloud Music reported a net revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.8%. The decline was primarily due to a one-time copyright adjustment in the previous year [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for FY2025 reached 30.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, primarily driven by the rapid growth of its pharmaceutical platform business [10][11] - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 1.95 billion yuan, an increase of 36% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 6.37% [11] - The company is actively exploring AI in healthcare to enhance operational efficiency across various scenarios, including AI-driven product search engines and knowledge platforms for medical professionals [11] Revenue Summary - The company's pharmaceutical self-operated revenue was 26.1 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, supported by a 33.6% increase in the number of self-operated B2C retail SKUs to 1.23 million [10] - E-commerce platform service revenue was 3.6 billion yuan, a significant increase of 54%, driven by the health category advertising business, with the number of platform merchants growing by 35% to 48,300 [10] - Revenue from healthcare and digital services declined by 8% to 890 million yuan [10] Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit margin improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the gross margin increased by 2.5 percentage points to 24.3% [11] - The fulfillment expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.4%, indicating improved operational efficiency in warehousing, logistics, and customer service [11] - The company has potential for further optimization in sales and fulfillment expense ratios, suggesting continued improvement in profitability [11] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2026 and FY2027 are estimated at 33.5 billion yuan and 36.4 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.3 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan [3][18] - The forecast for FY2028 includes revenue of 39.4 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 3.2 billion yuan [3][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group with a target price of HKD 99.50 and USD 102.20 [7][28]. Core Insights - Baidu's total revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 32.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, driven by strong growth in AI cloud revenue [1]. - The proportion of AI cloud revenue in Baidu's core income increased by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year to 26.1%, while advertising revenue's share declined by 8.7 percentage points [1]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the sustainability of AI cloud revenue growth and the recovery pace of core advertising revenue [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Baidu's core revenue grew by 7.0% year-on-year to RMB 25.5 billion, primarily due to better-than-expected AI cloud revenue [2]. - Advertising revenue decreased by 6.1% year-on-year to RMB 16.0 billion, attributed to moderate demand from advertisers and the impact of AI search transformation [2]. - Non-advertising revenue increased by 39.6% year-on-year to RMB 9.5 billion, with AI cloud revenue growing by 42% year-on-year to RMB 6.7 billion [2]. Business Transformation - Management reported that 35% of Baidu's search results in April included AI-generated content, up from 22% in January, indicating a proactive approach to AI transformation [3]. - The Baidu app's monthly active users (MAU) reached 724 million in March 2025, a 7% year-on-year increase, suggesting improved user experience [3]. - The "LuoBo Kuaipao" autonomous driving service has expanded internationally, with orders reaching 1.4 million in Q1 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts Baidu's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 down by 6.8%, 5.7%, and 3.6% to RMB 25.2 billion, RMB 28.5 billion, and RMB 30.9 billion respectively, mainly due to lower expectations for high-margin advertising revenue [4][24]. - The target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates due to the ongoing challenges in the advertising business [4][28]. Segment Valuation - The valuation for Baidu's core advertising business is set at USD 47.5 per ADS, based on a 5.0x 2025 PE, which is below the industry average of 13.9x [28]. - The AI cloud segment is valued at USD 46.2 per ADS, based on a 4.0x 2025 PS, reflecting strong revenue growth and improving profit margins [29].

小米集团-W(01810) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 22 日 小米战略新品发布会前瞻 ——小米集团点评报告 投资要点 财务摘要 | [单位Table_Forcast] /百万 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 365906 | 481844 | 636475 | 716471 | | (+/-) (%) | 35% | 32% | 32% | 13% | | 归母净利润 | 23658 | 32198 | 51439 | 55423 | | (+/-) (%) | 35% | 36% | 60% | 8% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.95 | 1.24 | 1.98 | 2.14 | | P/E | 33.59 | 40.59 | 25.41 | 23.58 | 资料来源：浙商证券研究所 本次发布会手机芯片 SoC 芯片玄戒 o1 将亮相，小米成为继苹果、高通、联发科 后全球第四家发布自主研发设计 3nm 制程手机芯片的企业。雷军在官方微博中 提及，小米从 2014 年开启手机芯片 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 15.81 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 141.5%, with a net loss of 660 million RMB, which is a reduction of 700 million RMB compared to the same period last year [7]. - The company is expected to achieve a significant sales scale expansion during the 2025-2026 product cycle, with projections indicating a return to profitability by Q4 2025 [7][9]. - The company is focusing on smart cockpit and advanced driving technologies, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [7]. Company Overview - The company operates in the automotive industry, with a current H-share price of 77.55 HKD as of May 21, 2025, and a market capitalization of 129.4 billion RMB [2]. - Major shareholder includes He Xiaopeng, holding 18.35% of shares [2]. - The company has seen a stock price increase of 153% over the past year [2]. Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, the company delivered 94,000 vehicles, marking a year-over-year increase of 331% [7]. - The gross margin for automotive products reached 10.5%, up 5 percentage points year-over-year [7]. - The company anticipates Q2 revenue to be between 17.5 billion and 18.7 billion RMB, with expected vehicle deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 units [7]. Future Projections - The company forecasts a doubling of annual vehicle sales and aims to achieve breakeven by Q4 2025, with positive free cash flow expected for the year [7]. - Net profit projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -1.81 billion, 840 million, and 5.83 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.97, 0.44, and 3.1 RMB [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.35 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability for FY25, with revenue of HKD 71.55 billion (down 1.4% year-on-year) and a net profit of HKD 405 million, marking a turnaround from a loss of HKD 1.605 billion in the previous year [1][5]. - The new management has focused on fine-tuning operations at frontline stores and implementing more efficient cost control measures, leading to a return to profitability [1][4]. - The company plans to continue its strategy of tailored store operations and aims for steady improvement in profitability through enhanced operational efficiency [1][4]. Revenue and Business Segments - The company's merchandise sales revenue was HKD 68.48 billion, also down 1.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a contraction in supply chain operations and the closure of underperforming stores. However, the average transaction value increased, resulting in a same-store sales growth of 0.6% [2]. - Rental income slightly decreased to HKD 3.03 billion, down 2.8% year-on-year, attributed to store closures and tenant restructuring, with an overall vacancy rate of approximately 4.7% [2]. - Membership fees generated revenue of HKD 40 million, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 125% [2]. Profitability and Cost Control - The gross margin slightly declined by 0.6 percentage points to 24.1%, mainly due to the enhanced focus on cost-effective product strategies [3]. - Cost control measures were effective, with total expenses (excluding impairment impacts) decreasing by HKD 2.2 billion, driven by reductions in personnel costs and rent [3]. - The net profit margin improved by 2.8 percentage points to 0.6%, with adjusted net profit reaching HKD 690 million, corresponding to a profit margin of 1.0% [3]. Future Outlook and Strategy - The company’s future operational plans will focus on three main areas: enhancing efficiency through a "daily low price + community life center" model, continuing cost-saving measures, and expanding revenue sources through improved store formats and membership offerings [4]. - The medium-sized supermarket segment is expected to see same-store sales growth of 8%, with positive cash flow anticipated as the business model stabilizes [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts of HKD 500 million for FY26 and HKD 660 million for FY27, with an introduction of an FY28 forecast of HKD 850 million [5]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 43x for FY25, with a target price adjustment of 9.6% down to HKD 2.35, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The flagship mine Las Bambas in Peru is the most important asset for the company, contributing significantly to copper production and revenue [1][14]. - The company is expected to exceed performance expectations due to a decrease in production costs and interest expenses, with a projected copper production of 515,000 tons in 2025, a 36.3% year-on-year increase [2][4]. - The company has a strong capability to manage community issues, which is crucial for mining operations in Peru, and this capability is expected to be replicated across other South American mines [3][61]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Las Bambas accounts for 81.5%, 89.2%, and 79.8% of the company's total copper production from 2022 to 2024, with a projected production of 400,000 tons in 2025 [1][14]. - The mine's EBITDA contribution is significant, with 73.1%, 94.6%, and 76.6% from 2022 to 2024 [1][14]. Production and Cost Expectations - The company expects to achieve a production range of 350,000 to 400,000 tons in 2025, with C1 costs projected between $1.50 and $1.70 per pound [2][32]. - The C1 cost has already dropped to $1.26 per pound in Q1 2025, indicating a potential for further cost reduction [2][43]. Community Management - The company employs a management model termed "Las Bambas Heart," focusing on sustainable development and community engagement, which has proven effective in addressing local community issues [3][60]. - The report highlights that the market underestimates the company's ability to handle community-related challenges, which are common in the mining sector in Peru [3][61]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to be $549 million, $694 million, and $703 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of $0.05, $0.06, and $0.06 [4][68]. - The company’s valuation metrics, such as P/E and P/B ratios, are significantly lower than industry averages, indicating potential for price appreciation [4][70]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from rising copper prices, with a performance elasticity of nearly 30% for every 10% increase in copper prices [3][69]. - The report emphasizes that the company’s valuation is attractive compared to peers, with a significant upside potential as copper prices rise [3][69].