三生制药（1530.HK）授权事件点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 授权辉瑞重磅交易落地，看好 707 具有 BIC 潜力 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ SSGJ-707 授权辉瑞，首付款高达 12.5 亿美元。5 月 20 日，三生制药 （01530.HK）宣布，公司及附属子公司沈阳三生、三生国健与辉瑞签署协议，将 向辉瑞独家授予公司自主研发的突破性 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在 全球（不包括中国内地）的开发、生产、商业化权利。公司及沈阳三生将保留 SSGJ- 707 在中国内地的开发、生产、商业化权利，并基于届时商定的财务条款授予辉 瑞对 SSGJ-707 在中国内地开展商业化的选择权。根据协议，三生制药将获得 12.5 亿美元不可退还且不可抵扣的首付款，以及最高可达 48 亿美元的开发、监 管批准和销售里程碑付款。公司还将根据授权地区的产品销售额收取两位数百分 比的梯度销售分成。此外，辉瑞将于协议生效日认购三生制药价值 1 亿美元的普 通股股份。 ➢ 看好 SSGJ-707 具有 BIC 潜力，创新管线迎来收获期。SSGJ-707 是三生制 药基 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims to maintain a balance between expansion and internal strengthening, with a focus on high-quality growth despite uncertainties in the environment [5][19] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year, with direct-operated hotels down 9.4% and franchise hotels up 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The target for new openings in 2025 is approximately 2,300 hotels [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%, with direct-operated revenue down 11.2%. The company is transitioning 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model, which has impacted short-term performance [3][17] - The adjusted EBITDA for overseas operations was -77 million RMB, indicating increased losses primarily due to the transition to a light-asset model and restructuring efforts [3][17] Future Outlook - The company expects Q2 revenue growth of 1-5%, with domestic growth of 3-7% and franchise revenue growth of 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, aiming for at least flat or growth for the year [4][18] - The company continues to focus on brand upgrades, member direct sales, and light-asset strategies, with a significant portion of its hotels in lower-tier cities [4][18] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19][6]

➢ 投资建议：公司核心管线 BD 落地带来业绩弹性，我们上调公司盈利预测， 预计公司 2025-2027 年营业总收入分别为 182.44/127.52/147.31 亿元；归母 净利润分别为 85.75/34.13/41.02 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 3.57/1.42/1.71 元， 维持"推荐"评级。 ➢ 风险提示：集采风险，市场竞争加剧风险，政策变化风险，产品研发不及预 期风险，仿制药风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 三生制药（1530.HK）授权事件点评 授权辉瑞重磅交易落地，看好 707 具有 BIC 潜力 2025 年 05 月 22 日 ➢ SSGJ-707 授权辉瑞，首付款高达 12.5 亿美元。5 月 20 日，三生制药 （01530.HK）宣布，公司及附属子公司沈阳三生、三生国健与辉瑞签署协议，将 向辉瑞独家授予公司自主研发的突破性 PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体 SSGJ-707 在 全球（不包括中国内地）的开发、生产、商业化权利。公司及沈阳三生将保留 SSGJ- 707 在中国内地的开发、生产、商业化权利，并基于届时商定的财务条款授予辉 瑞对 SSGJ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term disruptions due to industry cycles but is focusing on high-quality expansion and internal improvements. The first quarter revenue met expectations, with hotel operating revenue around 22.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and total revenue of approximately 5.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1][11] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 1-5% in Q2, with domestic segments expected to grow by 3-7% and franchise revenue by 18-22%. The management anticipates a narrowing decline in RevPAR in Q2, with a goal of at least maintaining or growing throughout the year [4][18] Summary by Sections Domestic Hotels - In Q1, domestic revenue was 4.481 billion RMB, up 5.5% year-on-year. Direct-operated hotels saw a decline of 9.4%, while franchise revenue increased by 21.1%. The overall RevPAR decreased by 3.9%, with same-store RevPAR down by 8.3% [2][16] - The company opened 694 new hotels and closed 155, with a total of 11,564 hotels by the end of Q1. The company plans to open approximately 2,300 new hotels throughout the year [2][16] Overseas Hotels - Q1 overseas revenue was 918 million RMB, down 11.3%. The decline was primarily due to the transition of 10 direct-operated hotels to a light-asset franchise model and the closure of one direct-operated hotel. The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was -77 million RMB, indicating an increase in losses due to restructuring [3][17] Financial Forecasts - The company maintains adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 4.66 billion, 5.37 billion, and 6.13 billion RMB, respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 18%. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times for the respective years [5][19] - The company has a shareholder return plan of 2 billion USD over three years, which adds marginal appeal to the investment [5][19]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 专业连锁Ⅱ 受益主动库存清理，期末存货 60.0 亿，同比-4.5%，存货周转天数 135 天，同比下降 1 天；经营性现金流 37.6 亿，同比+20.0%，增长与应收账款及存货规模下降有关。末期+ 特别分红 8.68 亿，结合中期分红，全年现金分红比例 135%，显著超预期。 ❑ 合作品牌矩阵竞争力仍然强劲，期待 Nike 在新财年的改善： 作为运动零售商龙头，滔搏是 Nike、Adidas 在中国最重视的合作伙伴之一，Nike 品牌在 10 月更换全球 CEO、原大中华区 CEO 亦升任大中华区董事长兼 CEO&ACG 品牌全球 CEO，体现 Nike 对中国&户外市场的重视，期待新财年新管理团队带来的积极变化。 除了两大主要合作品牌外，滔搏不断丰富包括综合运动、专业运动、休闲运动、IP 文化 类的品牌合作矩阵，在户外、越野跑、登山、IP 文化领域持续拓展版图， 25 年 5 月新增 高端户外品牌 Norrøna 及高端跑步服饰品牌 SPAR 中国独家代理合作，其中： ❑ 发布 25/2/28 财年年报：震荡程度符合预期、门店调整到位 25/2/28 财年公司全年收入 2 ...

相关研究报告 医药生物/生物制品 三生制药（01530.HK） 2025 年 05 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 20.850 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 22.000/5.470 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 23.99 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 23.99 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 134.69 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 三生制药 恒生指数 《核心品种持续发力，多款创新药进 入收获期—港股公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.3.27 与辉瑞就 SSGJ-707 达成授权，创新价值弹性兑现 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][14]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the company delivered 35,045 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 273% and a month-on-month increase of 6%. The projected sales for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 524,000, 786,000, and 966,000 vehicles respectively, with corresponding revenues of 97.76 billion, 158.1 billion, and 197.07 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 139.2%, 61.7%, and 24.7% [3][14]. - The launch of high-quality models is expected to mark a turning point in sales, while advancements in smart driving technology are anticipated to help reverse financial performance. Collaboration with Volkswagen is expected to leverage technological leadership to realize revenue [3][14]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In April 2025, the company achieved a delivery of 35,045 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 273% and a month-on-month growth of 6%. The MONA M03 model has accumulated over 100,000 deliveries in 8 months, and the P7+ model has reached 50,000 units in 5 months [11][12]. Product Development - The company is set to mass-produce the Turing chip in Q2, enhancing its smart driving capabilities. The XNGP AI-assisted driving system has achieved an 84% user penetration rate. The company is also developing a large-scale AI model with 720 billion parameters [12][14]. Global Expansion - The 2025 X9 model received significant acclaim, achieving 6,000 orders within 7 days of launch in mainland China. The company also secured over 1,500 orders in various Asia-Pacific regions, indicating strong overseas market performance [13][14]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 97.76 billion, 158.1 billion, and 197.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits projected at 120 million, 6 billion, and 9.42 billion yuan respectively [14][15].

三生制药（01530.HK） 2025 年 05 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 医药生物/生物制品 | 日期 | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 20.850 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 22.000/5.470 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 500.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 23.99 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 23.99 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 134.69 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 三生制药 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《核心品种持续发力，多款创新药进 入收获期—港股公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.3.27 与辉瑞就 SSGJ-707 达成授权，创新价值弹性兑现 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 余克清（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | yukeqing@kysec.cn | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 194.00 HKD (178.27 CNY) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, driven by the upcoming S8 anniversary season of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" and improvements in advertising efficiency. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.2 billion, 34.1 billion, and 35.9 billion CNY respectively [2]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the advertising and gaming sectors, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 7.0 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [10]. - The company is expected to benefit from a growing user base and improved monetization capabilities as users mature [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 31,195 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 16.26% [3][11]. - The company anticipates a Non-GAAP net profit of 892 million CNY in 2025, recovering from a loss of 1,347 million CNY in 2024 [3][11]. - Gross margin is expected to improve to 38.05% in 2025, up from 24.16% in 2023 [3][11]. Key Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the company's daily active users (DAU) reached 36.8 million in Q1 2025, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [10]. - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 2.0 billion CNY, a 19.7% increase year-on-year, driven by strong growth in performance-based advertising [10]. - The gaming segment saw a revenue of 1.7 billion CNY in Q1 2025, marking a 76% increase year-on-year, primarily due to the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [10].

1 季度盈利同比高增，资源协同回归"一个 吉利" 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率等，预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.36、1.54、1.94 元（原为 1.27、1.50、1.84 元），维持可比公司 25 年 PE 平均估值 15 倍，目标价 20.40 元 人民币，22.20 港元（1 港元=0.9189 元人民币），维持买入评级。 风险提示 吉利、领克、极氪品牌销量低于预期风险、成本控制不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 179,204 | 240,194 | 305,782 | 359,561 | 424,141 | | 同比增长 (%) | 21.1% | 34.0% | 27.3% | 17.6% | 18.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,806 | 7,644 | 12,708 | 14,514 | 18,417 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4.3% | 10 ...