执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn 分析师：葛玉翔 | Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn | | --- | | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 6,757.68 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 6,757.68 | | 市价(港元) | 2.22 | | 市值(百万港元) | 15,002.05 | | 流通市值(百万港 | 15,002.05 | | 元) | | 汽车服务 | | | 1、《易鑫集团深度报告：专业汽车金 融交易平台，稳健业绩驱动长期股东 回报》2025-04-03 易鑫集团 25Q1 点评：高利润二手车业务增长超预期，金科业务高 增 易鑫集团（02858.HK） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 15 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) [4] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.86 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, primarily due to a decline in social entertainment business revenue, while online music revenue showed resilience [1] - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was 680 million RMB, with a gross margin of 36.7%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8 percentage points [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of ROI in content procurement and has seen a continuous improvement in gross margin due to operational leverage [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, NetEase Cloud Music achieved a gross profit of 680 million RMB, with a gross margin of 36.7%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year but up 4.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The actual gross profit for Q1 2024 was approximately 670 million RMB, leading to a year-on-year growth of about 2.0% in actual gross profit for Q1 2025 [1] Business Strategy - The company focuses on independent musicians, being the largest online incubator for independent musicians in China, with over 773,500 registered independent musicians and approximately 4.4 million music tracks uploaded by the end of 2024 [2] - NetEase Cloud Music has strengthened its copyright content by enhancing cooperation with copyright holders, including a preliminary consensus with South Korea's SM Entertainment for copyright renewal [2] Product Development - The company has made adjustments to its platform based on user feedback, enhancing user experience through various product optimizations and introducing new features like "Listen Together with Strangers" to strengthen social attributes [3] - In March 2025, the company launched the DeepSeek feature, marking a significant step in AI integration within the music industry [3] Profitability Forecast - The report predicts adjusted net profit for 2025 to be 1.901 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 11.8% [5] - The adjusted EPS for 2025 is projected to be 8.75 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 20 [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][20]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading ADC platform in China, with a focus on drug pipeline value realization and key inflection points approaching [4][11]. - The core product, Lukanosatuzumab, is the second TROP2 ADC approved globally and is expected to generate significant sales in both domestic and international markets [19][42]. - The company is transitioning from a biotech firm to a comprehensive biopharmaceutical platform, with potential operational breakeven in two years [19][20]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 1,540 million RMB - 2024: 1,933 million RMB - 2025: 2,038 million RMB - 2026: 3,004 million RMB - 2027: 4,300 million RMB - The expected CAGR for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 45%, with product sales CAGR reaching 82% [7][20]. Product Pipeline - The company has developed approximately 20 drug candidates across three major platforms: ADC, large molecules, and small molecule targeted drugs [11][21]. - The ADC pipeline includes 11 candidates, with one approved and others in various stages of clinical development [11][27]. - The company has established significant collaborations with Merck, involving over 10 billion USD in total transaction value [11][36]. Market Potential - The global ADC market is projected to grow from 13.2 billion USD in 2024 to 115.1 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 35% [21][24]. - The TROP2 ADC market in China is expected to reach 3.4 billion RMB by 2032, with a CAGR of 91.8% [42][49]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment for TROP2 ADCs is moderate, with opportunities for Lukanosatuzumab to gain market share against existing products [49][50]. - The company’s unique molecular design and clinical data provide a competitive edge in the ADC space [42][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Geely Automobile [6] Core Views - Geely Automobile's Q1 2025 performance is impressive, with total sales reaching 704,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5%. Total revenue reached 72.5 billion RMB, up 24.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.67 billion RMB, a significant increase of 263.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, which saw sales of 339,000 units (up 135.4% year-on-year), has positively impacted revenue. The average selling price (ASP) for Q1 2025 is estimated at 103,000 RMB, a decrease of 19,000 RMB year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin improved slightly to 15.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The report attributes this to changes in export structure and product mix, as well as a decrease in expenses due to better integration and collaboration within the company [2] - Geely's plan to privatize Zeekr (ZK.N) is seen as a strategic move to consolidate resources and enhance operational efficiency, aligning with the company's focus on high-end luxury electric vehicles [3] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for Geely from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 404.78 billion RMB, 489.69 billion RMB, and 572.83 billion RMB, respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same period are 16.21 billion RMB, 22.09 billion RMB, and 25.98 billion RMB, respectively [3][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.61 RMB, 2.19 RMB, and 2.58 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11, 8, and 7 [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8] Core Views - The company is expected to see a turning point in profits and cash flow, with potential for increased dividends [2][8] - The company’s core assets include an 18% stake in Conch Cement and waste incineration assets, with significant contributions to net profit from these segments [7][31] - The report highlights the company's strong operational metrics in waste incineration and a significant reduction in capital expenditures (Capex), leading to improved free cash flow [7][42] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from 8,015 million in 2023 to 6,128 million in 2025E, with a projected net profit of 2,093 million in 2025E [6][8] - The company anticipates free cash flow to improve significantly, reaching 15 billion in 2025, 21 billion in 2026, and 21 billion in 2027, contingent on government subsidies [8][42] - The report estimates a conservative valuation of 154 billion for the company, indicating a 22% upside from the current market capitalization [8] Waste Incineration Business - The company leads the industry in waste incineration capacity, with operational capacity of 48,100 tons/day and a utilization rate of 105% in 2024 [7][43] - The waste incineration segment is expected to generate stable cash flows, with a projected operating profit of 7.22 billion if government subsidies are accounted for [7][54] Conch Cement Assets - The company is projected to receive 500 million in cash dividends from its stake in Conch Cement, with a potential revaluation of these equity assets [7][66] - The report notes that Conch Cement's profitability is expected to stabilize due to industry self-discipline and declining energy costs [7][64] Dividend Potential - The company plans to double its dividend to 660 million in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio increasing from 13% to 33% [56] - The report emphasizes the market's underestimation of the company's dividend potential, driven by improved cash flow and reduced capital expenditures [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by the upgrade of its e-commerce division and the impact of AI on effective advertising and evergreen games, reinforcing capital expenditures [3] Financial Summary - For FY25Q1, Tencent achieved revenue of 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, surpassing market expectations of 175.7 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit reached 61.3 billion RMB, up 22.0% year-on-year, also exceeding the market forecast of 59.7 billion RMB. The gross margin was 55.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points [7][10] - The financial outlook for 2025E projects revenue of 725.3 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit expected to be 249.0 billion RMB, reflecting a slight upward revision from previous estimates [7] Business Segments Performance - Value-added services revenue reached 92.1 billion RMB in FY25Q1, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, with gaming revenue at 59.5 billion RMB, up 24% year-on-year. Domestic and international gaming revenues were 42.9 billion RMB and 16.6 billion RMB, respectively, showing increases of 24% and 22% [7][30] - Marketing services generated 31.9 billion RMB in revenue, a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, driven by enhanced commercialization capabilities of platforms like Video Number and WeChat Search [7][32] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, reaching 54.9 billion RMB [7][38] Strategic Insights - The report emphasizes that Tencent, as the largest social traffic entry point, is expected to leverage AI to reconstruct platform value. The integration of AI technology is anticipated to enhance the overall growth quality and sustainability of the business [7][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" [4][35]. Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 180 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, driven primarily by strong performance in advertising and gaming sectors [1][9]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was 69.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with Non-IFRS net profit at 61.3 billion RMB, up 22% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company is leveraging AI capabilities to enhance existing businesses and explore new opportunities, particularly within its WeChat ecosystem [2][15]. Revenue Breakdown - Gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 59.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, with domestic gaming revenue up 24% to 42.9 billion RMB [2][20]. - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 31.9 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20%, driven by increased traffic and enhanced AI models [3][28]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year to 54.9 billion RMB, with a recovery in growth rates observed [4][29]. Future Projections - The report maintains profit forecasts for Tencent, expecting adjusted net profits of 252.5 billion RMB, 283.2 billion RMB, and 312.9 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][35]. - The estimated reasonable valuation range for Tencent's stock is between 610.00 and 661.00 HKD, with a closing price of 520.00 HKD [4][35]. Financial Metrics - The company's comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 56%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year, with improvements across various business segments [1][9]. - The report projects a steady increase in revenue, with expected growth rates of 8.4%, 10.6%, and 7.0% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8].

上 市 公 司 房地产 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 05 月 16 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——经纪业务收入增长靓眼，多元赛道利润率稳步修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 110,740 | 122,649 | 135,786 | | 同比增长率（%） | 28 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,201 | 7,544 | 9,121 | | 同比增长率（%） | -524 | -31 | 53 | 22 | 21 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.63 | 1.15 | 1.77 | 2.15 | 2.60 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 8.16 | 5.70 | 8.68 | 10.70 | 13.17 | | 市盈率 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 180 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, primarily driven by strong performance in advertising and gaming sectors [1][9] - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was 69.3 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, with a Non-IFRS net profit of 61.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 22% increase [1][9] - The company is leveraging AI capabilities to enhance existing businesses and explore new opportunities, particularly within its WeChat ecosystem [2][15] Revenue Breakdown - Gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 59.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, with domestic gaming revenue rising 24% to 42.9 billion RMB [2][20] - The advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 31.9 billion RMB, marking a 20% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in high-quality ad inventory [3][28] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew 5% year-on-year to 54.9 billion RMB, with a recovery in growth rates observed [4][29] Profitability Metrics - The company's Non-IFRS net profit margin improved to 34.1%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year, with a comprehensive gross margin of 56%, an increase of 3 percentage points [1][9] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 252.5 billion RMB, 283.2 billion RMB, and 312.9 billion RMB respectively, indicating strong growth potential [7][35] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of its WeChat e-commerce and AI applications, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts [7][35] - Capital expenditures for Q1 2025 were 27.5 billion RMB, a significant increase of 91% year-on-year, indicating investment in AI and infrastructure [2][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]