Core Viewpoint - Beijing's land market has experienced a sudden slowdown after a series of high-quality land sales in June, with only a few transactions expected to occur at the base price in July [1][4]. Group 1: Land Supply and Transactions - In July, only two land parcels are expected to be sold at the base price: the Zhongjian Fangcheng land in Yanqing and the Changping land [1]. - The land supply list, which was regularly updated at the end of each month, has not been updated since the fifth round [1][4]. - A total of 22 residential land parcels were sold in Beijing in the first half of the year, amounting to 100.56 billion yuan, with a residential building area of approximately 2.17 million square meters, remaining stable compared to the previous year [18][19]. Group 2: Upcoming Land Projects - The upcoming land projects include several residential and commercial parcels in various districts, with a focus on areas with strong market demand and well-developed infrastructure [4][19]. - Specific projects include: - In Haidian District, two parcels for residential use with a total area of 8.62 hectares and a planned building area of 145,200 square meters [8]. - In Fengtai District, a parcel for residential use with an area of 2.26 hectares and a planned building area of 58,800 square meters [11]. - In Changping District, three parcels for residential use with a total area of 14.49 hectares and a planned building area of 398,000 square meters [13]. - In Shunyi District, two parcels for residential use with a total area of 5.1 hectares and a planned building area of 77,600 square meters [17]. Group 3: Market Trends and Pricing - The average premium for land parcels has been low, with 13 parcels sold at the base price and only 7 parcels achieving a premium of over 10% [19]. - The total transaction amount for land in the first half of the year showed a significant increase of approximately 37.3% compared to the same period last year [19].

Long-term Logic - The global restructuring and economic transformation in China are highlighted as key drivers for investment strategies, with a shift from a US-dominated global division of labor to a more balanced approach favoring China [2][11]. - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with a notable decline in real estate and infrastructure investment, leading to improved cash flow and asset quality [12][16]. Mid-term Logic - The current economic cycle is at a low point, with weak demand and low inflation suppressing corporate investment, prompting companies to reduce capital expenditures [17][21]. - As companies focus on asset quality and cash flow, the market is expected to shift its valuation anchor from earnings to net assets, making price-to-book (PB) ratios more relevant [17][21]. Short-term Catalysts - External factors, such as the US's reverse globalization policies, are creating favorable conditions for Chinese assets, with a passive appreciation of the RMB and increased capital inflow [22][28]. - Domestic policies emphasizing "de-involution" are leading to expectations of capacity reduction in traditional industries, further supporting asset revaluation [28]. Industry Selection - The report identifies Hong Kong's financial, real estate, construction, and energy sectors as having better value propositions, with many industries exhibiting low PB ratios [6][37]. - Specific stocks with PB ratios below 2 and market capitalizations above 500 billion yuan are highlighted, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [40][41].

深圳前海桂湾片区一宗住宅用地于7月14日完成出让，该地块建筑面积25600平方米，挂牌起始价11.58 亿元，吸引了包括中铁、 保利置业、中建壹品、华发、绿城、金茂、越秀、建发、中海、招商、 华润 等在内的12家 房企参与。该地块经过158轮报价后，最终由 招商蛇口以21.55亿元的价格摘得，溢价率 86.1%，成交楼面价约8.4万元/平方米。该成交楼面价刷新了深圳涉宅用地成交楼面价TOP1位置，成为 深圳新的单价地王。（记者 李洁） ...

Group 1 - Infrastructure stocks in Hong Kong experienced significant upward movement, with China CRRC (01766.HK) rising nearly 9% [1] - Times Electric (03898.HK) saw an increase of over 5.5% [1] - Other companies such as China Metallurgical Group (01618.HK), China Railway (00390.HK), China Railway Construction (01186.HK), and China Communications Construction (01800.HK) also reported gains exceeding 2% [1]

2025 年 07 月 14 日 建筑 建筑企业联合倡议反内卷，企业盈利有 望改善，建议关注低估值高股息标的 | 投资评级 | 领先大市-B | | --- | --- | | | 维持评级 | | 行业表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 39% | 建筑 | 沪深300 | | | 29% | | | | | 19% | | | | | 9% | | | | | -1% | | | | | -11% | | | | | 2024-07 | 2024-11 | 2025-03 | 2025-07 | | 资料来源：Wind 资讯 | | | | | 升幅% | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 相对收益 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 4.7 | | 相对收益 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 4.7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | 3.9 | 9.1 | 20.5 | | | 董文静 | | 分析师 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1450522030004 dongwj@essence.com.cn 陈依凡 分析师 SAC 执业证书编 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major construction enterprises, indicating a significant demand for rebound in the construction sector compared to the banking sector [8][31]. Core Insights - The domestic construction industry has evolved into a model with financial attributes similar to banks, where construction companies provide financing to clients, thus resembling "shadow banks" [1][14]. - The construction sector has lagged behind the banking sector in terms of stock performance, with a 76.1% increase in the banking sector since December 20, 2023, compared to only 13.5% in the construction sector, indicating a clear need for catch-up [2][15]. - The dividend yield of leading construction state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is attractive, with several companies offering yields above 3% in A-shares and over 5% in H-shares, making them appealing for long-term investors [3][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The construction industry operates with a business model that has financial characteristics, requiring companies to provide upfront financing to secure projects, which has led to a high-leverage, asset-heavy structure [1][14]. - Major assets of construction firms include cash and receivables, which are akin to financial assets, while liabilities are primarily operational debts, similar to bank deposits [1][14]. Section 2: Market Performance - The construction sector's performance has been hindered by concerns over slow repayments from government and real estate developers, but these pessimistic expectations are now largely priced in, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery [2][15]. - The report highlights that the construction sector's valuation has been stabilizing, indicating a potential for upward movement as market conditions improve [2][15]. Section 3: Dividend Appeal - A-shares of leading construction SOEs show a competitive dividend yield, with companies like China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction yielding over 3% [3][22]. - In H-shares, the average dividend yield for construction SOEs matches that of leading banks, reflecting strong investment attractiveness [3][22]. Section 4: Policy Impact - Upcoming policies are expected to accelerate infrastructure project implementation, which, combined with a low base effect, may lead to improved revenue and performance for construction SOEs in the latter half of the year [4][26]. - The report anticipates that fiscal policies will be enhanced, with an increase in the issuance of special bonds and other financing tools to support infrastructure development [4][26]. Section 5: Competitive Landscape - The construction industry is witnessing a push against "involution" or excessive competition, with major players advocating for a focus on sustainable growth and innovation rather than aggressive expansion [7][30]. - This initiative aims to improve project profitability and stabilize the competitive environment within the industry [7][30]. Section 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in undervalued construction SOEs, highlighting companies such as China Energy Engineering, China State Construction, and China Communications Construction as key targets for investment [8][31]. - The expected recovery in earnings and the attractive dividend yields position these companies favorably for long-term investment [8][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of new special bonds by various regions increased by 44.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with an issuance progress of 49.1%, indicating a faster pace compared to 2024 but slower than 2022 and 2023. The focus is on supporting infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [2][11] - The construction business activity index for June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the industry. The civil engineering business activity index has remained above 55.0% for three consecutive months, reflecting an acceleration in construction projects [2][11] - There is an increasing focus on urban renewal and major infrastructure investment projects, with the completion of the 800 billion yuan "two重" construction project list expected to accelerate the implementation of key projects and physical workload [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises and local state-owned enterprises with low valuations and stable performance, recommending companies such as China Communications Construction, China Electric Power Construction, and China Railway [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is accelerating the renovation of old urban residential areas, with over 50% of construction rates reported in several provinces by June. A total of 180 billion yuan has been allocated for the renovation of 120,000 old elevators [14] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes a balanced approach to infrastructure investment, ensuring the completion of major projects while planning for future initiatives [15] International Expansion - In the first five months of 2025, China's overseas contracting projects saw a 5.4% increase in revenue and a 13% increase in new contracts. Notably, contracts signed in Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 84.93 billion USD, a 20.7% increase year-on-year [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on international engineering sectors, recommending companies such as China Materials International and Shanghai Port Construction [3][12] Demand Structure - There are promising investment opportunities in specialized manufacturing engineering sectors, energy conservation, and new energy-related infrastructure. Companies with relevant transformation layouts are expected to benefit, such as Honglu Steel Structure and Huayang International [3][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the total investment in the industry is expected to stabilize, with a focus on advancing modern infrastructure systems without excessive preemption [1][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has stated that all 102 major projects outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" are expected to be completed by the end of the year [11] - The report highlights that regional investments are likely to gain significant elasticity as national strategic layouts deepen [3] Industry Performance - The construction industry saw a weekly increase of 2.59%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.09%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (+1.78%) [4][6] - The best-performing sub-industries for the week were Ecological Landscaping (+5.49%), International Engineering (+5.34%), and Design Consulting (+4.20%) [6][9] - Year-to-date, the top three sub-industries are Ecological Landscaping (+27.48%), Decorative Curtain Walls (+15.98%), and Design Consulting (+15.74%) [6][9] Key Company Developments - Anhui Construction won contracts for the S27 Hohhot to Ordos Expressway and G4212 Hefei to Anqing Expressway, totaling 8.085 billion yuan, which represents 8.38% of its 2024 revenue [13] - Zhejiang Communications won a contract for the G2531 Hangzhou to Shangrao Expressway, valued at 4.222 billion yuan, accounting for 8.84% of its 2024 revenue [13] - The report recommends low-valuation state-owned enterprises such as China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, while also highlighting private companies like Zhite New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure [3][11]

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction and decoration industry as "Overweight" [2][8] Core Viewpoints - The overall investment growth rate is weak, with infrastructure investment providing relative stability amidst pressures in manufacturing and real estate. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6% year-on-year from January to May 2025, while total infrastructure investment increased by 10.4% [2] - The report predicts that corporate profits will face pressure in the first half of 2025 due to slowing fixed asset investment growth and a focus on project quality. The expected net profit growth rates for key companies are categorized into various ranges, with some companies projected to see declines [2][3] - The report suggests that low valuations of state-owned enterprises in the construction sector may recover due to ongoing economic stimulus policies and management's market value management methods. The current PE and PB ratios for the construction industry are at 11.2X and 0.76X, respectively, indicating a bottom position [2] - Investment recommendations include state-owned enterprises such as China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, as well as private companies like Zhi Te New Materials and Shenzhen Ruijie [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Profit Growth Predictions - Companies with a net profit growth rate below -10%: China Railway, China Railway Construction, China Metallurgical Group, China Power Construction, Shanghai Construction, Honglu Steel Structure, Southeast Network Framework [3] - Companies with a net profit growth rate between -10% and 0%: China Communications Construction, Sichuan Road and Bridge [3] - Companies with a net profit growth rate between 0% and 10%: China Energy Engineering, China Steel International, Anhui Construction, Donghua Technology [3] - Companies with a net profit growth rate between 10% and 20%: China Chemical [3] - Companies with a net profit growth rate above 20%: Zhi Te New Materials, Shenzhen Ruijie [3] Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the construction industry, detailing their stock prices, EPS, PE ratios, and projected net profit growth rates for 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The construction sector has seen a significant increase in attention towards urban renewal, with undervalued large-cap stocks showing signs of stabilization. The sector's performance is driven by improved demand-side policy expectations and a shift away from excessive competition, benefiting both large and small-cap stocks. The report suggests focusing on high-growth segments such as urban renewal, coal chemical, nuclear power, and steel structures, while also considering the beta opportunities in large-cap stocks [1][13][14]. Summary by Sections Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is accelerating, with policies from the central government outlining goals and support measures. The focus includes the renovation of old residential areas, establishing safety management systems for buildings, and creating resilient and smart cities. The report identifies four key categories for investment: design and testing, construction and decoration, urban infrastructure renovation, and resilient/smart city initiatives, highlighting specific companies in each category [2][15][17]. Market Performance - The construction index rose by 2.77% in the week of July 7-11, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.76 percentage points. Notable performers included Guosheng Technology (+42.98%), New City (+34.73%), and Beautiful Ecology (+34.46%) [4][21][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the cyclical opportunities arising from improved physical work volume in infrastructure. It suggests focusing on high-demand areas such as water conservancy, railways, and aviation, particularly in regions like Sichuan, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Recommended companies include Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and major state-owned enterprises like China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction [27][28]. Emerging Business Directions - The report highlights the growing demand for computing power driven by AI applications, recommending companies like Hainan Huatie for their transition into computing power leasing. It also notes the potential in cleanroom sectors due to the ongoing domestic replacement in the semiconductor industry, suggesting companies like Baicheng and Shenghui Integration [29][30]. Major Projects and Themes - The report identifies significant investment opportunities in major hydropower projects, deep-sea economy, and low-altitude economy, recommending companies involved in these sectors, such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering [32][30].